Ecuador - Chile

World Cup 2014 Qualifiers

Chile is doing a pretty good campaign so far, but a lot more was expected of them. They currently occupy the 5th place, which only takes them to the play-off, and for sure they won't be too happy with that, especially since if they lose a tempo, they might also lose that spot. And the main issue for them is their defensive line, almost the poorest, with 13 goals conceded (4 from Argentina and Uruguay, plus 3 from Colombia and 2 from Peru). They compensate for that with a solid attack, as they have also managed to score 12 goals so far. There are also some facts that will make their task even harder against Ecuador: first of all, the match will be played in Quito, at high altitude, and even though the Chileans had about 4 days to acclimatize, they might still suffer towards the end of the match. Then, they will also be missing 4 key players: goalkeeper and captain Claudio Bravo, top scorer Humberto Suazo and midfielders Gary Medel and Eugenio Mena. That means that they will probably suffer once again defensively, even though it looks good from midfield up, with Matias Fernandez (Fiorentina), Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona) and Eduardo Vargas (Napoli). Ecuador is performing great so far, especially in Quito where they have a record of 4-0-0, without receiving a goal. However, I see the Chile side strong enough to be able to hurt them, and a goal from them should not be too hard to achieve. The line looks ok to try it for some small stakes. GL!

over 2.25 @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Spain - Chile

International Friendly Match

As usual, I try to stay away from friendly matches, especially the ones played so early, when the players barely started their season, so I'm only going for this one, as it looks quite good. Was honestly expecting odds around 1.30 for Spain, so we have some small value here (if there is such a thing in friendly matches). Don't think there is a need to talk about Spain too much, as pretty much everyone agrees they are probably the best team in the world, and have the best squad in their history. They look very solid in all areas of the field, and their possession football is efficient, and enough to drive any opposition insane. Pretty much full squad for them, as all the big names are present, but if we really want to find some absences, just Puyol and Marchena are the names that jump out. Chile's defense will also miss some players (Ponce, Cereceda), and 3 of the 6 defenders are debutants. And that's pretty much the situation in all areas... Chile has some good players, that should make a good starting line-up, but once the reserves start to hit in, they could be having some problems. Alexis Sanchez is the only dangerous name in Chile's attack, but I doubt he can do too much by himself. Spain should win this, and I'm expecting something close to 3-0, so the handicap line is worth a shot. Small stakes though, as this is just a friendly match. GL!

Spain (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10

Result: 3-2, VOID

Chile - Venezuela

Copa America

I see some nice value here. First of all, the current odds are around 0.10 higher than the opening ones for a Chile win. Then, I can only imagine the odds if these teams would have met in the first match of the group stage, and I see them as something around 1.40. The fact is that Venezuela indeed managed to surprise a lot of people by being one of the first teams to qualify into the quarter finals. But I don't see them as being anything special. Played a solid defense against Brazil, snatched a win against Ecuador (one of the poorest teams in South America, in my opinion), and then miraculously drew level with Paraguay, scoring 2 goals in the last three minutes. Against Chile, I expect them to play defensively once again, but I doubt they'll be as successful as they were against Brazil. Chile plays more organized, and more team-like, then Brazil, and they are able to break any defense. They won 2/3 matches in the group, with the minimum difference, and maybe could have won even against Uruguay, as they were the better team for much of the game. The only problem for them is the lack of top class strikers (Suazo couldn't score if his life depended on it), but they have some players than could easily be the deciding factor by themselves, like Alexis Sanchez. Venezuela's nice trip in Copa America should come to an end here, as Chile needs to step up a gear, and confirm their status as title favorites. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Uruguay - Chile

Copa America

The odds on the overs are probably greatly influenced by the poor display of football that we had so far in the tournament. From the 7 matches that were played so far, only 1 ended with over 2.5 goals, and only in 3 of them were at least two goals scored. So this probably had a big impact on the bettors and the bookies, who are choosing caution for this types of bets. But still, that I don't see a big relation between the previous matches and the next ones, and since here we have 2 naturally overish teams, I'm going with goals. And there are some good signs here, as both Uruguay and Chile conceded in the first round, and did so against some rather poor opponents, offensive-wise. And if they allowed goals from Peru or Mexico, teams that aim their main focus on defense and organized play, I can only expect that they will also concede against each other. We have some big players responsible for goals here, and I expect them to be enough for at least one goal apiece. Forlan, Suarez, Cavani, Sanchez... hard to see them not scoring, especially since this match could prove crucial. Both teams will probably qualify with ease (as I don't expect Mexico to get more than 1 point in this group), and whoever wins this match will also probably win the group (Chile will make 6 points, while Uruguay can make 4 points and will play against Mexico in the last round). So caution is pretty much useless here, and both teams should go for the win. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

Chile - Mexico

Copa America

Don't understand why the odds are still so high for this match. Under FIFA rules, Mexico are allowed to participate in this tournament using their Olympic U-23 team, along with 5 senior players (over 23 years). Though the final list hasn't been submitted yet, the preliminary list looks very weak. From the 25 players on that list, 17 have never played for the national team. Jonathan dos Santos, from Barcelona B, is the only known players in the squad, and the only one to play outside of Mexico (Carlos Vela was also on that list, but he was later withdrawn). So a team that looks very weak on paper, and honestly, I don't expect them to make a big fuss in this competition. Chile hasn't finalized their list either, but from the 28 players nominated, we can see some real classy names: Claudio Bravo from Real Sociedad, Matias Fernandez from Sporting and Alexis Sanchez from Udinese, just to name a few, and there is no reason to believe they will miss out of the final list. Chile showed some good football in the World Cup, with roughly the same players, so I expect them to also have a good run in Copa America. Their opening match against Mexico should be a morale boost, should they get the win, and I see them as clear favorites if we take into account the quality of their players, and the experience difference between them and Mexico's squad. Odds should be around 1.40 in my opinion, so the current odds represent huge value. GL!

Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 2.12, 6/10

Result: 2-1, WON