World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
The last day of the World Cup qualifiers is upon us, and if we look at it realistically, Uruguay needs a real miracle to achieve a direct qualification. Let's look at the facts: we all know the fixing theory that circulates, involving Chile and Ecuador in a draw that would seal direct qualification for both of them, and if that's the case, Uruguay has no chance. And a draw in Chile is, of course, very much on the cards. And even if one of them wins, they need to do it big, same as Uruguay needs a big win against Argentina. But, there's more to this match: Argentina will be using a mostly-reserves team, as they won't be counting on Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Gago or Mascherano. So they will have to cope without a handful of world class players, while at the same time Uruguay will be at full force (Cavani and Suarez will lead the attack). Even if they won't achieve a direct qualification, for Uruguay this is a derby, and it would indeed be shameful to lose on their own ground against a B squad of Argentina. A win here will bring the players a morale boost, and will leave them in good mood for the play-offs. I believe Uruguay will take the match seriously, and will fight until the very end. And this means that besides going for the victory, they should be also going for the goal difference. Despite the odds having dropped quite a bit, I still think both the home win and the over are solid bets, and I'm going to go against my rule and take two bets on the same match. GL!
Uruguay (-0.5) @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
over 2.5 goals @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
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Showing posts with label Qualifiers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Qualifiers. Show all posts
Oct 16, 2013
Oct 14, 2013
Venezuela - Paraguay
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Sep 11, 2013
Paraguay - Argentina
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
Uruguay - Colombia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST
This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST
Sep 7, 2013
Paraguay - Bolivia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Colombia - Ecuador
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Jun 8, 2013
Peru - Ecuador
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers, CONMEBOL
This will pretty much be a decisive match for Peru, as they are playing their last chance of qualifying to the World Cup. With a win here, they will amount a total of 14 points, that could leave them just 1 point behind the play-off spot (provided either Chile or Venezuela don't win today). Besides, Peru has one game in hand, so they can get knee-deep in the qualification fight. Peru are a very organized team under coach Markarian, and can be quite a tough nut to crack, as they've only lost once in their last 10 games, 0-1 at Paraguay. 3-1-1 is their record in Lima in these qualifiers, a run which includes a win against Chile and a draw with Argentina. Once again, the focus of attention will be on the 'Fantastic 4', as Farfan, Pizzaro, Guerrero and Vargas are expected to start and to command Peru's offensive. Ecuador is sitting quite comfortably on 2nd place, 5 points ahead of the last qualifying place, and also with a game in hand. So it's really quite hard to see them failing to qualify after such an incredible campaign. However, almost all of their points came at home, as they have a 0-2-2 record away from home. Tonight they will also have to cope with the absence of in-form striker Felipe Caicedo, which could prove a big blow to them. All in all, Peru is the team that has a lot at stake here, they have some classy players in offense, and they could take advantage of Ecuador's struggle's outside their country. GL!
Peru (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
This will pretty much be a decisive match for Peru, as they are playing their last chance of qualifying to the World Cup. With a win here, they will amount a total of 14 points, that could leave them just 1 point behind the play-off spot (provided either Chile or Venezuela don't win today). Besides, Peru has one game in hand, so they can get knee-deep in the qualification fight. Peru are a very organized team under coach Markarian, and can be quite a tough nut to crack, as they've only lost once in their last 10 games, 0-1 at Paraguay. 3-1-1 is their record in Lima in these qualifiers, a run which includes a win against Chile and a draw with Argentina. Once again, the focus of attention will be on the 'Fantastic 4', as Farfan, Pizzaro, Guerrero and Vargas are expected to start and to command Peru's offensive. Ecuador is sitting quite comfortably on 2nd place, 5 points ahead of the last qualifying place, and also with a game in hand. So it's really quite hard to see them failing to qualify after such an incredible campaign. However, almost all of their points came at home, as they have a 0-2-2 record away from home. Tonight they will also have to cope with the absence of in-form striker Felipe Caicedo, which could prove a big blow to them. All in all, Peru is the team that has a lot at stake here, they have some classy players in offense, and they could take advantage of Ecuador's struggle's outside their country. GL!
Peru (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
Jun 5, 2013
Jamaica - Mexico
World Cup 2014, CONCACAF Qualifiers
Mexico went off to a very rough start in these qualifications, something that is very rare to see, as they are without a doubt the best team in their geographical area. But right now they are in a bit of a jam, as they only have 3 points from their first 3 matches, drawing with all their opponents so far (USA, Jamaica and Honduras). So there's no space for more mistakes, as they could find themselves well behind the rest of the challengers, and even though the 4th place leads to a play-off, I'm sure they'll want a direct qualification. Full squad is expected for them, with the best available players, as coach de la Torre won't be taking any chances. Ochoa, Rodriguez, Moreno, Torrado, Guardado and Chicharito Hernandez are some of the high-profile players that have been called-up, and will most likely start from the first minute. Against them, we'll have Jamaica, a team without any big players, results or tradition. They got to this stage from a group with USA, Guatemala and Antigua & Barbuda... easy group to qualify from, but their best feat was being able to defeat USA at home. However, now it should be a different story, as Mexico needs the points, and they have the quality to take all of them. The odds are very good, considering how normally we wouldn't get anything above 1.50, so this bet is definitely worth a go. GL!
Mexico (-0.5 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Mexico went off to a very rough start in these qualifications, something that is very rare to see, as they are without a doubt the best team in their geographical area. But right now they are in a bit of a jam, as they only have 3 points from their first 3 matches, drawing with all their opponents so far (USA, Jamaica and Honduras). So there's no space for more mistakes, as they could find themselves well behind the rest of the challengers, and even though the 4th place leads to a play-off, I'm sure they'll want a direct qualification. Full squad is expected for them, with the best available players, as coach de la Torre won't be taking any chances. Ochoa, Rodriguez, Moreno, Torrado, Guardado and Chicharito Hernandez are some of the high-profile players that have been called-up, and will most likely start from the first minute. Against them, we'll have Jamaica, a team without any big players, results or tradition. They got to this stage from a group with USA, Guatemala and Antigua & Barbuda... easy group to qualify from, but their best feat was being able to defeat USA at home. However, now it should be a different story, as Mexico needs the points, and they have the quality to take all of them. The odds are very good, considering how normally we wouldn't get anything above 1.50, so this bet is definitely worth a go. GL!
Mexico (-0.5 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Mar 26, 2013
Bolivia - Argentina
CONMEBOL, World Cup 2014, Qualifiers
Confederation leaders Argentina are travelling to Bolivia, in what is expected to be a very tricky match. No need to mention the high altitude again (3600 meters), and the faster movement of the ball, as everybody is familiar with that. And as I've said many times before, the Bolivian teams employ an offensive style of play when acting as hosts, trying to capitalize on the advantage provided by the altitude. But besides that, they also enjoy a different advantage, as the big teams are usually resting star players, either to keep them fit for the next match, or not to enter into a conflict with the parent clubs. And Argentina will make no exception here: although no official line-up has been confirmed, it looks like only Messi, Mascherano, Romero and Di Maria will start the match. The rest is unknown, but it is highly expected that some reserve players will take the field. Of course, Argentina has plenty of quality even among the reserves, but since none of them are accustomed to playing in such conditions, it's going to be hard. And even their star players (Messi, Di Maria) will have a hard time to cope with the altitude. Last match that took place in Bolivia between these two sides ended in 6-1 for the hosts. We certainly won't see the same score now, as Maradona is no longer the coach, but Bolivia has some good chances not to lose. GL!
Bolivia (+0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Confederation leaders Argentina are travelling to Bolivia, in what is expected to be a very tricky match. No need to mention the high altitude again (3600 meters), and the faster movement of the ball, as everybody is familiar with that. And as I've said many times before, the Bolivian teams employ an offensive style of play when acting as hosts, trying to capitalize on the advantage provided by the altitude. But besides that, they also enjoy a different advantage, as the big teams are usually resting star players, either to keep them fit for the next match, or not to enter into a conflict with the parent clubs. And Argentina will make no exception here: although no official line-up has been confirmed, it looks like only Messi, Mascherano, Romero and Di Maria will start the match. The rest is unknown, but it is highly expected that some reserve players will take the field. Of course, Argentina has plenty of quality even among the reserves, but since none of them are accustomed to playing in such conditions, it's going to be hard. And even their star players (Messi, Di Maria) will have a hard time to cope with the altitude. Last match that took place in Bolivia between these two sides ended in 6-1 for the hosts. We certainly won't see the same score now, as Maradona is no longer the coach, but Bolivia has some good chances not to lose. GL!
Bolivia (+0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Jan 25, 2013
Defensor Sporting - Olimpia
Copa Libertadores 2013, Preliminary Round
So, here we are. First official bet of 2013! Let's hope it's going to be a lucky charm.
Olimpia comes to this match in the middle of a financial and administrative crisis. All their problems from last year are still real, and I have some serious doubts regarding their performances that are about to come. They haven't been paid for the last few months, and many of the players have reached their limit. On Monday, they refused to train and have left the club's establishment. However, they did make the trip to Montevideo, and will compete against Defensor, but the main question remains... how focused will they be? It's hard to train and to focus on a game when you are also protesting and you haven't been paid in more than 3 months. They could still put on a performance even under this circumstances, but Defensor Sporting are definitely no pushovers. They are one of the most solid teams in Uruguay, and it's incredibly hard to come away with points from the Luis Franzini stadium: in 2012, they were undefeated at home in the local league. They do miss a couple of players, who have been called up to the U20 South American Championship, so they'll have quite a short squad for this match. But the core of the team remains, and we should see a solid performance. The mood is also very different than Olimpia's, as the players are happy and enjoying their life with the club. So I can't really see past a home win here. GL!
Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
So, here we are. First official bet of 2013! Let's hope it's going to be a lucky charm.
Olimpia comes to this match in the middle of a financial and administrative crisis. All their problems from last year are still real, and I have some serious doubts regarding their performances that are about to come. They haven't been paid for the last few months, and many of the players have reached their limit. On Monday, they refused to train and have left the club's establishment. However, they did make the trip to Montevideo, and will compete against Defensor, but the main question remains... how focused will they be? It's hard to train and to focus on a game when you are also protesting and you haven't been paid in more than 3 months. They could still put on a performance even under this circumstances, but Defensor Sporting are definitely no pushovers. They are one of the most solid teams in Uruguay, and it's incredibly hard to come away with points from the Luis Franzini stadium: in 2012, they were undefeated at home in the local league. They do miss a couple of players, who have been called up to the U20 South American Championship, so they'll have quite a short squad for this match. But the core of the team remains, and we should see a solid performance. The mood is also very different than Olimpia's, as the players are happy and enjoying their life with the club. So I can't really see past a home win here. GL!
Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Oct 17, 2012
Bolivia - Uruguay
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers
The line is quite low on this one, and I really expect a nice match, so we should easily see at least 2 goals here. Both teams need the points here, Bolivia in order to get closer to the qualification area, and Uruguay to make sure they remain on their position. Main advantage for the home team is the high altitude from La Paz (over 3500 meters), and for sure the Uruguayans will have problems coping with that, because they can't to the same thing the Peruvians did (make a team only with players used to playing at altitude). Bolivia will force the attack with an offensive trio (Martins, Mojica and Arce), and if they manage to put constant pressure on their oponents, the goal should come eventually, especially towards the end of the match when the air should run out. Meanwhile, Uruguay will use a slightly more defensive approach, with just Suarez and Forlan up-front, probably hoping for some counters or set pieces. Bolivia conceded in all of their home games, and failed to score only in one (against Chile). Also, last 3 matches played between these teams in the qualifications ended with lots of goals (Uruguay won at home 5-0 in 2007 and 4-2 last year, while Bolivia draw at home 2-2 in 2008), so I expect the same pattern today. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
The line is quite low on this one, and I really expect a nice match, so we should easily see at least 2 goals here. Both teams need the points here, Bolivia in order to get closer to the qualification area, and Uruguay to make sure they remain on their position. Main advantage for the home team is the high altitude from La Paz (over 3500 meters), and for sure the Uruguayans will have problems coping with that, because they can't to the same thing the Peruvians did (make a team only with players used to playing at altitude). Bolivia will force the attack with an offensive trio (Martins, Mojica and Arce), and if they manage to put constant pressure on their oponents, the goal should come eventually, especially towards the end of the match when the air should run out. Meanwhile, Uruguay will use a slightly more defensive approach, with just Suarez and Forlan up-front, probably hoping for some counters or set pieces. Bolivia conceded in all of their home games, and failed to score only in one (against Chile). Also, last 3 matches played between these teams in the qualifications ended with lots of goals (Uruguay won at home 5-0 in 2007 and 4-2 last year, while Bolivia draw at home 2-2 in 2008), so I expect the same pattern today. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON
Oct 13, 2012
Argentina - Uruguay
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers
The two most offensive teams on the continent will face each other tonight, so it is only normal to think it will be a goal-fest. And we just have to look at the amount of quality that we have on the pitch... Argentina will use 4 offensive players, with Higuain, Messi, Aguero and Di Maria. All of them are top class players, and we can always expect some magic coming from them. On the other hand, Uruguay might change a bit from their usual system, in order to try and stop the Argentinian attack, so we will probably see Cavani with a slightly more defensive position. Even so, up-front we'll see Forlan and Suarez, and they are also capable of great things. And a more defensive system shouldn't put anyone off, as they should have plenty of chances on the counter-attacks, especially since the Argentinian defenders could be easily overcome by some skilled and experienced forwards, and also because Uruguay should be able to find lots of spaces for some quick counters. Hopefully, all the hype surrounding this match will materialize, and we will be able to see an exciting match, and also make some profit out of it. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-0, VOID
The two most offensive teams on the continent will face each other tonight, so it is only normal to think it will be a goal-fest. And we just have to look at the amount of quality that we have on the pitch... Argentina will use 4 offensive players, with Higuain, Messi, Aguero and Di Maria. All of them are top class players, and we can always expect some magic coming from them. On the other hand, Uruguay might change a bit from their usual system, in order to try and stop the Argentinian attack, so we will probably see Cavani with a slightly more defensive position. Even so, up-front we'll see Forlan and Suarez, and they are also capable of great things. And a more defensive system shouldn't put anyone off, as they should have plenty of chances on the counter-attacks, especially since the Argentinian defenders could be easily overcome by some skilled and experienced forwards, and also because Uruguay should be able to find lots of spaces for some quick counters. Hopefully, all the hype surrounding this match will materialize, and we will be able to see an exciting match, and also make some profit out of it. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-0, VOID
Ecuador - Chile
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers
Chile is doing a pretty good campaign so far, but a lot more was expected of them. They currently occupy the 5th place, which only takes them to the play-off, and for sure they won't be too happy with that, especially since if they lose a tempo, they might also lose that spot. And the main issue for them is their defensive line, almost the poorest, with 13 goals conceded (4 from Argentina and Uruguay, plus 3 from Colombia and 2 from Peru). They compensate for that with a solid attack, as they have also managed to score 12 goals so far. There are also some facts that will make their task even harder against Ecuador: first of all, the match will be played in Quito, at high altitude, and even though the Chileans had about 4 days to acclimatize, they might still suffer towards the end of the match. Then, they will also be missing 4 key players: goalkeeper and captain Claudio Bravo, top scorer Humberto Suazo and midfielders Gary Medel and Eugenio Mena. That means that they will probably suffer once again defensively, even though it looks good from midfield up, with Matias Fernandez (Fiorentina), Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona) and Eduardo Vargas (Napoli). Ecuador is performing great so far, especially in Quito where they have a record of 4-0-0, without receiving a goal. However, I see the Chile side strong enough to be able to hurt them, and a goal from them should not be too hard to achieve. The line looks ok to try it for some small stakes. GL!
over 2.25 @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Chile is doing a pretty good campaign so far, but a lot more was expected of them. They currently occupy the 5th place, which only takes them to the play-off, and for sure they won't be too happy with that, especially since if they lose a tempo, they might also lose that spot. And the main issue for them is their defensive line, almost the poorest, with 13 goals conceded (4 from Argentina and Uruguay, plus 3 from Colombia and 2 from Peru). They compensate for that with a solid attack, as they have also managed to score 12 goals so far. There are also some facts that will make their task even harder against Ecuador: first of all, the match will be played in Quito, at high altitude, and even though the Chileans had about 4 days to acclimatize, they might still suffer towards the end of the match. Then, they will also be missing 4 key players: goalkeeper and captain Claudio Bravo, top scorer Humberto Suazo and midfielders Gary Medel and Eugenio Mena. That means that they will probably suffer once again defensively, even though it looks good from midfield up, with Matias Fernandez (Fiorentina), Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona) and Eduardo Vargas (Napoli). Ecuador is performing great so far, especially in Quito where they have a record of 4-0-0, without receiving a goal. However, I see the Chile side strong enough to be able to hurt them, and a goal from them should not be too hard to achieve. The line looks ok to try it for some small stakes. GL!
over 2.25 @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Colombia - Paraguay
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers
The fight for a qualification position to the World Cup will probably go all the way to the wire between at least 6 teams, so none of them can afford to take a wrong step. Colombia is sitting on second place tied on points with Ecuador, one point behind leaders Argentina, but that position isn't very reassuring: a loss on Friday corroborated with other results, can see them dropping out of a direct qualification. So for sure, they won't take any chances against a Paraguay team in deep crisis. They have all their stars and big guns available, so we can expect players like Falcao, Freddy Guarin, Zapata and Yepes (AC Milan), and many other Europe-based players in the starting team. Loads of quality, and I can't see Colombia failing to make an impact in the World Cup with such a talented team. On the other hand, Paraguay must be at their lowest point in recent history. They are currently rock bottom with just 4 points from 7 matches, managing to beat only Ecuador and to snatch a point from Uruguay, one year ago. Ever since then, they have lost everything, including a home match with Venezuela last month. And things don't look like they are about to get better if we look at their squad. The defensive line is rather poor, as they won't be able to count on some veterans like Bonet, Veron, Manzur, Caceres or Aureliano Torres. Midfielder Edgar Barreto is also out, and the offensive line should also suffer without Cardozo and Santa Cruz. Basically, they will have to rely only on defenders Alcaraz and Da Silva, and on Barrios and Haedo Valdez in attack. They are poor, and don't have players who are able to win a match by themselves, and I really don't see them pulling any surprise in Colombia. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 5/10
Result: 2-0, WON
The fight for a qualification position to the World Cup will probably go all the way to the wire between at least 6 teams, so none of them can afford to take a wrong step. Colombia is sitting on second place tied on points with Ecuador, one point behind leaders Argentina, but that position isn't very reassuring: a loss on Friday corroborated with other results, can see them dropping out of a direct qualification. So for sure, they won't take any chances against a Paraguay team in deep crisis. They have all their stars and big guns available, so we can expect players like Falcao, Freddy Guarin, Zapata and Yepes (AC Milan), and many other Europe-based players in the starting team. Loads of quality, and I can't see Colombia failing to make an impact in the World Cup with such a talented team. On the other hand, Paraguay must be at their lowest point in recent history. They are currently rock bottom with just 4 points from 7 matches, managing to beat only Ecuador and to snatch a point from Uruguay, one year ago. Ever since then, they have lost everything, including a home match with Venezuela last month. And things don't look like they are about to get better if we look at their squad. The defensive line is rather poor, as they won't be able to count on some veterans like Bonet, Veron, Manzur, Caceres or Aureliano Torres. Midfielder Edgar Barreto is also out, and the offensive line should also suffer without Cardozo and Santa Cruz. Basically, they will have to rely only on defenders Alcaraz and Da Silva, and on Barrios and Haedo Valdez in attack. They are poor, and don't have players who are able to win a match by themselves, and I really don't see them pulling any surprise in Colombia. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 5/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Sep 8, 2012
Colombia - Uruguay
World Cup 2014 Qualfiers
Both these teams have been underish lately, but I expect that to change sooner, rather than later. And also, due to this fact, we have a very nice goal line that we can try for some medium stakes. Uruguay traveled to Colombia with their usual strong squad: we can see players that are acting in the strongest leagues from Europe, like Cristian Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Arevalo Rios, Forlan or Cavani. Suarez is suspended for this match, and it will be an important absence, but I have faith that Forlan and Cavani will be able to do the job, supported from behind by Rodriguez. Colombia also has some very good players, the most famous being Falcao, and we have seen recently that Falcao can do wonders all by himself. So we have two teams with some incredible offensive players meeting each other. As I said previously, they are usually underish teams: Colombia has 8 matches with under 2.5 goals from their last 10 games, while Uruguay has 6 unders from the last 10 games. But even so, Colombia managed to score in 8 of their last 10, while Uruguay did the same in 9 matches. I would definitely expect a minimum of 2 goals in this match, especially since the statistics are not so bad if we take out the friendly matches, so it's well worth a risk on this bet. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.82, 5/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Both these teams have been underish lately, but I expect that to change sooner, rather than later. And also, due to this fact, we have a very nice goal line that we can try for some medium stakes. Uruguay traveled to Colombia with their usual strong squad: we can see players that are acting in the strongest leagues from Europe, like Cristian Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Arevalo Rios, Forlan or Cavani. Suarez is suspended for this match, and it will be an important absence, but I have faith that Forlan and Cavani will be able to do the job, supported from behind by Rodriguez. Colombia also has some very good players, the most famous being Falcao, and we have seen recently that Falcao can do wonders all by himself. So we have two teams with some incredible offensive players meeting each other. As I said previously, they are usually underish teams: Colombia has 8 matches with under 2.5 goals from their last 10 games, while Uruguay has 6 unders from the last 10 games. But even so, Colombia managed to score in 8 of their last 10, while Uruguay did the same in 9 matches. I would definitely expect a minimum of 2 goals in this match, especially since the statistics are not so bad if we take out the friendly matches, so it's well worth a risk on this bet. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.82, 5/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Jun 4, 2012
Peru - Colombia
FIFA World Cup 2014 Qualifiers
Odds have already dropped on this match, but even so, I think this bet is worth taking. We all know Peru as the team of 'The Fantastic 4': Guerrero, Farfan, Pizarro and Vargas. They have both experience and quality, but if you take them away, Peru is just an average team. And tonight, three of those four are out: Pizarro, Farfan and Vargas, and besides them, defender Carlos Zambrano will also miss today's match. That will leave them to take on this match a lot of local players, as the only Europe-based players will be Acasiete (Almeria), Cruzado (Chievo), Guerrero (Hamburg) and Carrillo (Sporting). Meanwhile, the Colombians have a strong team, especially in the back, where they have plenty of experience and quality (although quite old). From the midfield and up, we also see plenty of class, with Guarin, Cuadrado (Udinese), Pabon (Atletico Nacional) and, of course, Falcao. And under this circumstances, I think Colombia has the edge in this game, and should take at least a point tonight. GL!
Colombia DNB @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Nov 16, 2011
Ecuador - Peru
CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers
Ecuador is set as a pretty big favorite for this match, and if anyone is wondering why... well, I have no idea. They aren't impressive, they haven't improved recently, and don't let their recent good form fool you. Beating Costa Rica and Jamaica is some friendlies doesn't mean too much, especially if they play in Ecuador, while their 2-0 win over Venezuela in the qualifiers also has little meaning, since La Vinotinto used mainly a second squad for that match. The high altitude from Quito could be their only advantage, but I suppose Peru knows how to counter that threat. Besides the obvious improvement for the Peruvians (including here a fantastic Copa America campaign, where they took 3rd place), they also had close to a week to prepare this match, since they had a bye during the weekend. And most of that time was spent in Arequipa (2300 meters of altitude), in order to get the players used with the altitude, and the training reports are encouraging. 'The Fantastic Four' are expected to start this match (Guerrero, Pizarro, Farfan and Vargas), and I'm sure they'll put up a decent fight. This +1 handicap is crazy in my opinion, and gives us breathing space even in case of an unlikely home win. GL!
Peru (+1 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
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