Uruguay - Colombia

World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers

This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST

Colombia - Ecuador

World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers

Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!

Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Colombia - Paraguay

World Cup 2014 Qualifiers

The fight for a qualification position to the World Cup will probably go all the way to the wire between at least 6 teams, so none of them can afford to take a wrong step. Colombia is sitting on second place tied on points with Ecuador, one point behind leaders Argentina, but that position isn't very reassuring: a loss on Friday corroborated with other results, can see them dropping out of a direct qualification. So for sure, they won't take any chances against a Paraguay team in deep crisis. They have all their stars and big guns available, so we can expect players like Falcao, Freddy Guarin, Zapata and Yepes (AC Milan), and many other Europe-based players in the starting team. Loads of quality, and I can't see Colombia failing to make an impact in the World Cup with such a talented team. On the other hand, Paraguay must be at their lowest point in recent history. They are currently rock bottom with just 4 points from 7 matches, managing to beat only Ecuador and to snatch a point from Uruguay, one year ago. Ever since then, they have lost everything, including a home match with Venezuela last month. And things don't look like they are about to get better if we look at their squad. The defensive line is rather poor, as they won't be able to count on some veterans like Bonet, Veron, Manzur, Caceres or Aureliano Torres. Midfielder Edgar Barreto is also out, and the offensive line should also suffer without Cardozo and Santa Cruz. Basically, they will have to rely only on defenders Alcaraz and Da Silva, and on Barrios and Haedo Valdez in attack. They are poor, and don't have players who are able to win a match by themselves, and I really don't see them pulling any surprise in Colombia. GL!

Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 5/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Colombia - Uruguay

World Cup 2014 Qualfiers

Both these teams have been underish lately, but I expect that to change sooner, rather than later. And also, due to this fact, we have a very nice goal line that we can try for some medium stakes. Uruguay traveled to Colombia with their usual strong squad: we can see players that are acting in the strongest leagues from Europe, like Cristian Rodriguez, Alvaro Pereira, Arevalo Rios, Forlan or Cavani. Suarez is suspended for this match, and it will be an important absence, but I have faith that Forlan and Cavani will be able to do the job, supported from behind by Rodriguez. Colombia also has some very good players, the most famous being Falcao, and we have seen recently that Falcao can do wonders all by himself. So we have two teams with some incredible offensive players meeting each other. As I said previously, they are usually underish teams: Colombia has 8 matches with under 2.5 goals from their last 10 games, while Uruguay has 6 unders from the last 10 games. But even so, Colombia managed to score in 8 of their last 10, while Uruguay did the same in 9 matches. I would definitely expect a minimum of 2 goals in this match, especially since the statistics are not so bad if we take out the friendly matches, so it's well worth a risk on this bet. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.82, 5/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Peru - Colombia

FIFA World Cup 2014 Qualifiers

Odds have already dropped on this match, but even so, I think this bet is worth taking. We all know Peru as the team of 'The Fantastic 4': Guerrero, Farfan, Pizarro and Vargas. They have both experience and quality, but if you take them away, Peru is just an average team. And tonight, three of those four are out: Pizarro, Farfan and Vargas, and besides them, defender Carlos Zambrano will also miss today's match. That will leave them to take on this match a lot of local players, as the only Europe-based players will be Acasiete (Almeria), Cruzado (Chievo), Guerrero (Hamburg) and Carrillo (Sporting). Meanwhile, the Colombians have a strong team, especially in the back, where they have plenty of experience and quality (although quite old). From the midfield and up, we also see plenty of class, with Guarin, Cuadrado (Udinese), Pabon (Atletico Nacional) and, of course, Falcao. And under this circumstances, I think Colombia has the edge in this game, and should take at least a point tonight. GL!

Colombia DNB @ 2.00, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON

Colombia - Costa Rica

Copa America

The Asian bookies have finally included this match in their offer, so I'll be quick to take it, with the same confidence as my Chile bet, since the circumstances are very similar. Just like Mexico, since Costa Rica is from CONCACAF and was invited to this tournament, they are not allowed to use their best squad (it would be kind of tough anyway, since their main squad was competing in the Gold Cup). Instead, the same rules as for Mexico will apply: Costa Rica will be forced to use their Olympic U-23 squad, with an addition of maximum 5 players of age over 23. And from the 22 players selected for their preliminary squad, 8 are debutants, only 3 have more than 10 selections, and also only 3 are playing outside of Costa Rica (one is reserve goalkeeper at AZ Alkmaar, one is reserve striker at Cerro Porteno, and the other one plays for a college team in the USA). Costa Rica wouldn't have had many chances even with their best players, but this squad looks simply awful, especially since you have to compare them with Colombia: 15 players from their 23-man squad are playing in Europe. Falcao and Guarin (Europa League winners), Rodallega, Yepes, Aguilar... just to name a few. I really like this Colombia team, and I think they can reach one of the latter stages of the competition, perhaps even challenge for the trophy. And a good start could prove crucial for that, especially since they need a good morale for their second group-match against Argentina. GL!

Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.81, 6/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Once Caldas - Deportivo Pereira

Colombia, Liga Postobon

I just said to myself that I will stop taking any handicap bigger than -1, but this time I'll make an exception, as this match looks just too good to skip (and I hope it will be the only exception). Once Caldas and Deportivo Pereira look like 2 teams from totally different dimensions. Once is last year's champion, and are playing great this season also. They might feel frustrated for losing the 3 points on Tuesday against San Luis from Mexico (the Mexicans equalized in the 94th minute, after a very confusing play), but they will most probably put everything behind them, and focus on this Clasico. And the coach will throw the best he's got in this match, not resting anyone, despite a trip to Paraguay planned next week, and in attack we will see again the magic-trio: Dayro Moreno, Wason Renteria and Carbonero, strikers that are very feared by all the teams in Colombia. Meanwhile, Deportivo Pereira is in the worst form of it's history, as an entire year has passed since they last won a match, facing a run of 32-matches without a single victory. Last game, they lost 0-4 away at Cucuta, and today they will face the commanding leaders, so I doubt they will stand any chances of ending their run. Odds on this handicap have been raising steadily, and that is why I finally decided to take it, as now there actually is some value on the odds. GL!

Once Caldas (-1.5 AH) @ 2.22, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Millonarios - Once Caldas

Colombia Primera A, Apertura

I see some nice value on this match. Once Caldas are the reigning champions of the Colombian Primera Division, while Millonarios are just an average team, whose usual objective is to finish in the mid-side of the standings. This season, their objectives are not different, as they are aiming for the same things as usual. Odds started raising on the champions because of their Libertadores commitment, where they played on Wednesday at home against Universidad San Martin (and were trashed 0-3), and where they will play again next week, also at home, against Libertad from Paraguay. But, they will probably not rest anyone tonight, as all the players that played during the mid-week are in the squad for this clash, and I can't see more than 2-3 changes, as they want a win here, in order to clear their image after the disastrous start of the Copa Libertadores. And as we have seen in their recent matches against Millonarios, they don't even have to be at their best to win. Millonarios have never beat them when playing at home, and in the last 9 years, they have only won twice in 18 matches. So to have Once Caldas set as underdog, against a team that usually poses little resistance against them, should be a nice opportunity. GL!

Once Caldas DNB @ 2.15, 4/10

Result: 0-2, WON