Nacional - River

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

A very good match should be awaiting us today in Uruguay, as Nacional and River will face-off for one of the top positions. Danubio are leaders, after winning yesterday against Penarol, but that could change today, as River could leapfrog them if they win. With a win for Nacional, they will tie River on second place. Whatever happens, this season promises to be very interesting. And for this match in particular, the goals should flow freely. Both teams have very good offensive abilities, with Nacional having the quality with Gonzalez, Alonso and Porta, while River has the form with Casas (scored 2 goals in 4 games) and Santos (2 goals in 4 games), along with winger Techera, who also scored 2 goals. Very offensive line-ups for both teams, and for River this can be seen  by looking at the standings, having score 14 goals and conceding 6 after 4 rounds. Also, in the last 10 mutual games between them, there were 47 goals scored (an average of almost 5 goals per match), and 8 of those games ended with a minimum of 3 goals. I'll go with the same trend, as both teams look good enough to provide us a thrilling encounter. GL!

 

over 2.75 goals @ 2.13, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Fenix - Wanderers

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Interesting duel in Uruguay, between two teams that haven't confirmed yet. Fenix is the only team that hasn't scored a single point yet, losing all 4 of their matches played so far. However, if we are to find excuses for them, we can say that their schedule hasn't been exactly comfortable, as they had to play against contenders Defensor Sporting, and against other teams that so far played beyond expectations and are in the upper half of the standings: El Tanque (2nd place), Sud America (6th place) and Racing (7th place). And in most of those matches, Fenix hasn't been that bad, as they played quite all right, dominated in certain periods, but had a lot of bad luck. On the other hand, Wanderers managed to gather 5 points, but that could be considered rather low, as they played against 4 teams ranked in the bottom half of the table, and they only managed to win once, 1-0 against Liverpool. And even though they have only lost one match, they haven't been at all convincing. Fenix are bound to take some points, sooner rather than later, as they must start converting their chances, and with Wanderers showing some poor results recently, I think they have a very good opportunity to start taking points today. Also, in the last 15 mutual matches, there was just one win for the visitors (Wanderers in 2008), so these games are traditionally bad for the travelers. GL!

Fenix DNB @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 2-2, VOID

Racing - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Just as usual, Penarol and Nacional, the two Uruguayan giants, have some ridiculous odds, regardless of the situation. And the same thing is happening today... Penarol are struggling to create effective football, and they haven't won a single match played so far this season. They did manage a draw with one of the forerunners, Defensor Sporting, but when you lose 2-3 with a team like Rentistas, or you get trashed by River, 2-4, then there's obviously a lot of work to do. And the coach is trying, making several changes in the team, but I doubt any winning formula has been found. Of course, their bad form won't last forever, and they'll be back in the title race soon, but it won't be an easy task for them today. Racing is quite a solid team, and they usually pose a lot of problems to the big teams. They have two wins this season, but that is irrelevant, because they won against Miramar and Fenix (bottom teams). However, they are the more gelled team, and they are functioning ok, unlike Penarol. And so many changes are bound to have an effect on the team. It remains to be seen if it's a good or bad effect, but however things may turn out, the line is just too good to miss.

Racing (+1 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10
Result: 2-3, VOID

Olimpia - Sportivo Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Olimpia had an awful start of the season, but in early March, everything appeared to be getting back on track, with wins against Cerro Porteno and Cerro de Franco, and also a draw away at Libertad. But everything went to waste after two consecutive defeats against Capiata and Sol de America. Of course, their Libertadores campaign is also taking it's toll, but to be on 10th place halfway through the competition is unacceptable for a club like Olimpia. But this should also motivate them for this match, as this is their best chance to climb positions. They have a free schedule next week, so all the regulars will play tonight, focusing solely on this match. Salgueiro and Bareiro will be in charge of Olimpia's defense, and at least from Bareiro, I am expecting a lot. And as I was saying, against Luqueno they have their best bet to get back to winning ways, as Luqueno are simply the worst team in the league. In 11 games they barely managed 6 points (with one win), and they were only able to score 3 goals, while conceding 12. Olimpia pounds them every time they play at home, and I have no doubts that they'll record another win today. GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 4-3, VOID

Nacional -Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Quite a low line set-up for Nacional here, as if we look at their current form, we could have expected something like -1.25. And the odds are pretty decent too. Nacional haven't lost for 6 games, and had 5 consecutive wins before last week's 0-0 draw, away at 4th plac Guarani. During this run, some clear victories against Olimpia and Libertad propelled Nacional towards the top of the table, as they currently hold a 3-point advantage over second placed General Diaz. Rubio Nu is struggling at the moment, as after their first-round victory they weren't able to add another 3 points. No win since the beginning of February, home defeats against Capiata and Luqueno, and awful morale took it's toll on the team, despite some hard fought draws with Olimpia and Guarani. Regarding team news, Nacional will welcome back forward Julian Benitez (6 goals in 5 matches), who was absent against Guarani. Offensive midfielder Gustavo Cristaldo (2/1) could also make a return, but his fitness is still a doubt at this moment. So, great form for Nacional (who will be trying to extend their advantage at the top), awful performances from Rubio Nu, along with the return of Nacional's top scorer... we should have a clear home win here. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Olimpia - Cerro Porteno PF

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Despite a poor domestic campaign, Olimpia is having a great performance in Copa Libertadores, where they are currently topping a group with Newell's and U de Chile, and are already qualified. They did go through a tough match just a few weeks ago, recording a 1-0 win in Chile, so the manager has decided to give a rest to most of his key players. Therefore, tonight we'll see an Olimpia side with very few regulars, and a lot of reserve players. So the current odds seem to be off by quite a bit, and they would have been exaggerated even if Olimpia would have used their best squad. I was talking about their poor performances in the league, as they have only won 2 games from the 7 they played (much to their credit, those two wins came against Cerro Porteno and Guarani). But when you draw with Rubio Nu, Luqueno and Carapegua, and lost at home against General Diaz, there's definitely room for improvement. Cerro de Franco also has 2 wins so far, but their general results are slightly better, as they drew at Libertad last week, and in February they defeated league leaders Nacional by 5-2. Another interesting thing is that ever since their promotion, they have drawn all of their matches against Olimpia, so that gives me even more confidence that they won't lose today against an alternative team... and even if they do, they should at least keep it tight. GL!

Cerro (+1 AH) @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Nacional Asuncion - General Diaz

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

I'm sure we would have had much lower odds if this match would have been played in the first round of the championship... but after an impressive start from General Diaz, the bookies are overreacting, thus giving us some nice odds. I'm not denying General Diaz's merits here, as it is an extraordinary feat to have 6 consecutive wins after their promotion to the top division, and to see among those wins some high-profile results like 1-0 as visitors against Olimpia and Guarani. However, this form won't be lasting forever, and they are bound to go on a downward trend soon. And Nacional looks like the best team to end this run for them. They are on second place, 3 points behind Diaz, with5 out of 6 wins. Besides the shameful defeat at Cerro de Franco (2-5), they also have some good wins, like the 1-0 against Libertad, and the morale boosting 3-0 win against Olimpia. They will definitely miss Silvio Torrales, who is on international duty, but other than that, they shouldn't have too many squad problems. General Diaz certainly won't be pushovers here, but with a solid team, good form and also with the home advantage, Nacional should take this. GL!

Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON

Luqueno - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The always troubled Luqueno will have to face Guarani, who are also gunning for some points to get their campaign back on track. The visitors had an ok start, drawing with Libertad and pulverizing Capiata with 5-0, but everything came to an abrupt stop last week, when they lost at home against Olimpia. Meanwhile, Luqueno has been struggling so far, despite a first-round draw with Olimpia (followed by a draw with Sol de America and a defeat at General Diaz). Guarani will aparently also miss several of their players today, but they should also have a good cover for them, and most likely this is the reason for these nice odds/line. And besides the poor form of Luqueno, history and statistics are also against them: they were only able to win once in their last 15 matches against Guarani, while the visitors have a huge lead with 11 wins. So, regardless of Guarani's absences, they still have the quality and the experience to take the points here, and I expect Luqueno's misery to continue. GL!

Guarani DNB @ 1.77, 3/10
Result: 0-1, WON

Olimpia - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Both teams are passing through some tough times, and the highlights are of course around Olimpia. They've had a rather poor start, with just 4 points from the first 3 games, and what really sparked the fire was their last match a few days ago, when they lost at home 0-1, against newly promoted General Diaz. And their problems are on all levels: the players haven't received their wages for December, there was a mass resignation in the board, and the coach employed several rotations from match to match, trying to keep his players fit for Copa Libertadores. However, things are starting to settle down, as some new directors took over the club, and for today, the best team is expected to take the field (just one regular will miss the game). Rubio Nu didn't enjoy a good start either, as their opening win was marred by two consecutive losses (they also lost last round against a newly promoted team). Of course, no one has too high hopes for them, and if Olimpia will be at full force they should win this game fairly easily, as they have for the past 5 occasions. I'm confident they can put an end to their problems, especially since we have seen them at full potential, and they played like a real force (2-1 win at Guarani and a 3-0 win against U de Chile in Libertadores - both of them being much better teams than Rubio Nu). GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 1.93, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Wanderers - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

If there's one match where we can expect to see some goals in Uruguay, this must be it. Both teams have been performing admirably, with good attacking lines and offensive style of play. And of course, if that's the case, then the defenses are the ones that have to suffer. The match will be played on Estadio Centenario, so Penarol will be at home (like it's usually the case when they play), so they can just play their usual game, which went so well within the last few weeks (since October, they had just one match which ended with less than 3 goals, and it was against Nacional, ending in a 0-0 draw... all the other games have been won clearly by Penarol). Wanderers have been alternating good performances with poor ones, but they like to play against teams that don't lock up in their own halves. Morale should also be high, since they are coming from 2 consecutive victories, in which they scored 6 goals. One more thing worth mentioning is that the last 5 official games between them and Penarol have ended with a minimum of 3 goals, so this should be a minimum for today as well. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.74, 3/10
Result: 1-2, VOID

El Tanque Sisley - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

All right, we have almost the same situation as last week with Liverpool, but this time it gets even better. Opening odds were 1.80 for a Tanque win, in Sbobet, and now it just rocketed to 2.26... again, with no apparent good reason (just like Wanderers did last week, and just as a reminder, they won 3-2 at Liverpool, despite playing with 2 men less since 1-1). El Tanque are one hell of a solid team this season, one of the most solid teams when playing at home, and one of the 3 teams that are still undefeated on their own stadium. And if we look at the standings, they seem the ones with the most chances of challenging Penarol for the title. They might even be leaders today, if they win and Penarol loses, but that would be a long shot... so even if both of them win, El Tanque will move to second place, and will keep their chances, remaining 2 points behind the leaders. Same story with Liverpool: small squad, not too many classy players, and bad form overall, so don't expect miracles. Once again, bet worth taking because of the huge odds movements, and if you can take -0.25, just increase the stakes. GL!

El Tanque (-0.5 AH) @ 2.29, 3/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Liverpool - Wanderers

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

When I saw the opening odds for this match, I never though I'd make a bet here, but the recent odds movements pull me closer. Liverpool went down from 1.98 to 1.65, and for no clear reason. They were performers last season in the league, but with most of their players gone, and with a very short squad, the 12th place that they are currently on is a fair reflection. Things haven't changed lately, except their schedule, which is now more 'breathable' since their elimination from Copa Sudamericana. They have 2 consecutive lost matches, and their only 3 victories in their last 10 games, came against newly promoted Progreso, and against bottom teams Cerro Largo and Central Espanol. Meanwhile, Wanderers aren't a great team either, but they can be a real pain most of the times. They are also coming from a bad run of form, mostly due to a lot of injuries, but today they will be able to recover some of those players. The only absences will be midfielders Santiago Martinez (9/1) and Diego de Souza (6/0). Otherwise no changes from their standard team, with Maxi Rodriguez also set to start from the first minute. Medium stakes on this bet, for which I see a lot of value (Liverpool might still be slightly better, but not worthy of those odds), and if anyone can get a +0.75, the stakes can be increased. GL!

Wanderers (+0.5 AH) @ 2.37, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON

Nacional - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

My 'favorite' team, Liverpool Montevideo, are playing as visitors in Parque Central, against Nacional, and this is another good opportunity for a good bet. I did mention previously about their very short squad, and nothing has changed since them. However, they do have a very successful campaign in Copa Sudamericana, where they have a chance to qualify for the quarter-finals, so they are definitely giving priority to that. That's why today they will be resting a few players, including forward Carlos Nunez (5/10) and defenders Mauricio Felipe (5/0) and Barboza (5/0). They are playing too well even in normal circumstances, so today I can only expect them to struggle even more. Meanwhile, Nacional has apparently found the correct formula, with an offensive style of play (they are using a 4-3-3 tactic), and also with the right players in the right positions (the forwards, for exmple, have very good speed, and can exploit any defensive gaps). They only failed to win 2 games in this Apertura: a 2-2 draw against Defensor Sporting, and a 1-2 loss at Cerro, on a very poor pitch that prevented them from playing their normal game. Nacional won their last 3 games against Liverpool, and today it will be a good opportunity to add to that number. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON

River Plate - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Odds are going up a bit here, and that can only make me happy, as I don't see any real reason for that. Neither team is doing a great campaign so far, but if I were to choose the first team that will collapse, this will definitely be Liverpool. They have a very short squad, so their coach rarely gets the chance to rest one or two players. So they took on all their matches so far in the league or in Sudamericana with pretty much the same team, and the same case will be today. And this could be detrimental to them, as fatigue and tiredness will definitely catch up. They played in Argentina during midweek, so they couldn't get too many days of rest. And since their performances haven't been great anyway, I don't expect a higher level of football today. River Plate is a very strong team at home, and we can see that in their recent results: in 2012, they have only lost one game at home... the very first one, back in February, exactly against Liverpool. However, things have changed lately, and Liverpool is nothing like last season's team. Both teams are short on quality, but with a wider squad and an easier schedule, River should nick it here. GL!

River DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Danubio - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Here we have two teams with a lot of offensive potential, but also with rather poor defensive lines, so we can only expect goals here. One more reason for that is that Danubio's new coach is the well known Juan Ramon Carrasco, who always employs offensive tactics. He did say he will try to take a more conservative approach with Danubio, but following their 0-0 draw last week, he is already changing the formation, from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-1-2, which should bring more balls to the area. So they should definitely improve on their 5 goals scored so far in 4 games, and of course, I don't expect too many improvements to the defensive line, which managed to concede 10 goals. Penarol didn't enjoy the best of starts either, as they have just started winning. However, 3 more points today will throw them back in the title race, so victory is a must. Two goals per match is the average scored by them, so if they keep up this trend, we might be in for a nice match, especially since last year both games finished with several goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Progreso - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Two of the early leaders will be facing each other tonight, in what promises to be quite an exciting match. Progreso is the surprise package of the Apertura, so far, as the newly promoted are one of the leaders after the first 3 rounds, taking 7 points and scoring 8 goals. And I don't think we should put too much of their performance on luck, as all the points have been won as visitors, against not very comfortable teams. So it's easy to understand why their hopes are set high in this high-profile clash. But despite their great start, I'm not getting my hopes up for this team, as the results won't stay like this for too long, and their enthusiasm might go out. And today might be the turning point for them, as they face one of the giants: Defensor Sporting. The violets are always running at the front of the league, always looking to challenge for the title, and have a very good squad with which they can do that. They are also in good form, also with 7 points (including a draw with Nacional), so expect them to take this match seriously. Defensor have a much more solid team, with more quality and more confidence, so they should win this match. A nice increase of the odds makes this bet even better to take. GL!

Defensor (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 1-4, WON

Defensor Sporting - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nice match is expected in Uruguay tonight, as two in-form teams will be facing each other. Both Defensor and Liverpool have 4 points in the first two rounds, so today one of them will be able to continue their good run. When the odds appeared, I thought they were set fairly, but recent odds movements (without serious reasons) give us some nice value on the home win. Defensor have been impressive so far, recording a 2-2 draw with Nacional, and trashing Wanderers 4-0 as visitors. Quite impressive results, as they have definitely marked their title challenge once again. Meanwhile, Liverpool also started the season in good form, and that is quite surprising for me. They have lost a lot of players, and had to start rebuilding their team, so their aspirations were far-fetched. However, they have managed to string a couple of positive results, both in Copa Sudamericana and the local championship. Still, I don't think this will last, as the new players should still be in their accommodation period, and as soon as they will meet a more serious team, they should have some difficulties. And that day should be today, as Defensor Sporting is not an easy team to play against, as they rarely lose. And since they have a more solid and experienced team, I expect them to do well today. I'm going with high stakes, because as I said, I see a lot of value in the home win after the increase in odds. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.28, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Nacional - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The line is sky-high, so I'll only take it with minimal stake, and I do so because I just can't miss this bet after seeing the teams' line-ups. Nacional is usually a very offensive and overish team, but today they will have even a more offensive formation, with 3 forwards (Luna, Medina, Bueno) plus Alvaro Recoba behind them. Speed is not his best skill, but his passing can break Cerro's defense, same as his free-kicks, and we should have enough speed on the flanks. Their defense is as poor as usual, so for sure they can (and most likely will) concede, especially since experienced striker Horacio Peralta will make his debut for Cerro Largo. Now, when it comes to the visitors, they are nothing special, losing the first round 2-3 at home against Montevideo Wanderers. So receiving 3 goals from Nacional is more than do-able, especially since their defensive line also crumbles when they are put under pressure. And just for statistics, if we look at their previous mutual matches, in 5 of their last 6 games Nacional and Cerro Largo finished with a minimum of 4 goals, as they have an average of 4 goals scored per match in those 6 games between them. This should really happen again, but as I said, only small stakes due to the high line. GL!

over 3.25 goals @ 2.00, 2/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Penarol - River Plate

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Second round of the Uruguayan league sees Penarol coming after a thriller of a first round. They were leading Fenix, and it looked like they were in control and would have had an easy job. Fenix drew the match before HT, after being 1-3 down, and managed to score the winner in the second half. So Penarol must surely be still hurt after that match, so they should be more focused to get the points today. There's no doubt that they have a much better and superior team compared to most of the other teams in the league, but they will have to work on their defensive game, and on their concentration. River comes after a 1-0 win against newly-promoted Juventud, after a less than impressive match. They have a very young squad, and I don't think they can have too many expectations this season. From the 19-man squad they have selected for the game against Penarol, 10 players are coming from the youth system, and have less than 20 years. Also, a few of them will make their debut today in the first division, while other will play their second match, having debuted last week. So I expect to see a team without experience, which at least tonight, should be an easy prey for the Uruguayan giants. GL!

Penarol (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Cerro Porteno - Sol de America

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Last two rounds of the Apertura of Paraguay, and title hopefuls Cerro Porteno still have something to dream of. They still have a remote chance to win the title, but for that they will need to win today, hope that Olimpia doesn't, and then everything will be decided in the last round, in the Super-Clasico against Olimpia. And while, everything seems to be far-fetched, there still are some chances, and since the leaders are not impressive at all lately, they might take a slump tonight. And that leaves everything to Cerro. They will repeat the same team that beat Guarani last week, when they made a solid match. Sol de America already showed their limits when they lost 0-1 to Olimpia, even though they previously recorded wins against Libertad and Nacional. But at home to Cerro, it should be a different story, as the azul-grana are one of the best home teams in the league (just behind Olimpia), and they are also the most in-form, winning 4 of their last 5 games. Of course this bet could go south if Olimpia manages to take an early lead, but I'm confident Cerro will fight it out to the end. GL!

Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON