Nacional - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

As you are probably well aware, last week I’ve had a very solid bet, full of confidence, against Nacional Montevideo. And unfortunately, that bet went to the crapper, after Atletico Nacional received a red card in the first minute of the game. So it would be pointless talking about that game, even though it is worth mentioning that despite having a man-down from the start, the Colombians were still able to recover from a 0-2 deficit and tie the game. Tonight, Nacional will still rest most of their regulars, as they only have 1 point in the group, and are focusing on the local league. Furthermore, from last week’s team, they will add 3 more youngsters, as 3 players are forbidden by the law to play in Uruguay. And on top of all this, their form couldn’t get much worse than this, as they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games.

Atletico will use a similar squad to last week’s one, and there should definitely be a revenge factor here, as the 2-2 in Colombia against a team of youngsters certainly doesn’t sit well with them. They also need to keep in touch with the leaders, Gremio, and their main rivals for qualification, Newell’s Old Boys. All in all, I have pretty much the same confidence as last week, and this time we also have a nice line. GL!

Atletico DNB @ 1.84, 5/10 
Result: 0-1, WON

Atletico Nacional - Nacional Montevideo

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

I have quite a lot of confidence in this bet, despite the rather big handicap line. Nacional has traveled to Colombia with a complete B-squad, as none of their regular players was included in the trip. They are fighting for the title of Clausura, and they are also in a neck-in-neck battle for the Aggregate table, so their focus is shifting towards the local league. Furthermore, they also had to go through a 13 hour-trip from Montevideo to Medellin, so a lot of fatigue is expected for them. Atletico Nacional is bound to treat this match seriously, as they still have enough changes to qualify to the next stage (3rd place with 3 points, but will play against Gremio at home). They are also in red hot form, being 8-0-2 in the league and 4-1 at home. Plus, they've also beaten Newell's Old Boys in Medellin, so they definitely mean business. The odds are bound to drop even further, but as I said, I have a lot of confidence here, and this bet is good to take up until 1.90. GL!

Atletico (-1.5 AH) @ 2.13, 5/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Oriente Petrolero - Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2014, Play-off

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Nacional - River

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

A very good match should be awaiting us today in Uruguay, as Nacional and River will face-off for one of the top positions. Danubio are leaders, after winning yesterday against Penarol, but that could change today, as River could leapfrog them if they win. With a win for Nacional, they will tie River on second place. Whatever happens, this season promises to be very interesting. And for this match in particular, the goals should flow freely. Both teams have very good offensive abilities, with Nacional having the quality with Gonzalez, Alonso and Porta, while River has the form with Casas (scored 2 goals in 4 games) and Santos (2 goals in 4 games), along with winger Techera, who also scored 2 goals. Very offensive line-ups for both teams, and for River this can be seen  by looking at the standings, having score 14 goals and conceding 6 after 4 rounds. Also, in the last 10 mutual games between them, there were 47 goals scored (an average of almost 5 goals per match), and 8 of those games ended with a minimum of 3 goals. I'll go with the same trend, as both teams look good enough to provide us a thrilling encounter. GL!

 

over 2.75 goals @ 2.13, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

River Plate - Nacional

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

To be honest right from the start here, these odds are just ridiculous. Nacional is Nacional, and they will always be a big name and a good team in this league, but looking at their recent matches and at River's form, it's just silly to give out such odds for them, and make them 1.70 favorites. I'm not impressed at all with the way the team has played, ever since Arruabarrena took over as coach, despite still being undefeated. They managed two wins against last placed Bella Vista and against troubled Liverpool, but they only managed a draw at home against high-flying El Tanque Sisley. And their game is generally not as convincing as it should. And this match also catches them in a tough scheduling-moment, as they will have the Super Clasico against Penarol on Saturday, and are in the middle of a Libertadores clash with Real Garcilaso (lost first leg by 0-1). Three important players will be absent today: defender Nunez (8/0), forward Bueno (4/2) and Alvaro Recoba (4/1). The rest of the regulars will start the match, but they may suffer from fatigue a bit, after a tiring match played at over 3500 meters of altitude last Thursday. River is in awesome form, with 4 consecutive wins, and 6 out of 9 throughout this competition. With a win today, they will be the leaders of the Clausura, equal on points with Defensor, so if they needed some extra-motivation, they have it. And in recent years, they've also had some superiority against Nacional: if we look at their last 10 mutual matches, River won 7 (including the one from Apertura, as visitors, by 2-0), and also recorded a draw, leaving Nacional with just 2 wins. I'm confident they will remain with some points tonight, and these odds are just screaming to be taken. GL!

River (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Nacional - El Tanque Sisley

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Unexpected gift from Racing last night, who have beaten Penarol 2-1 as visitors, thus giving a huge helping hand to all of Penarol's followers. And the ones that will probably enjoy this result the most will be Nacional. With a win today, they will tie Penarol on points in the Clausura, and will bring them just 3 points behind in the Annual table, with the Clasico just around the corner. However, in order to do that, they need to win today. And coach Arruabarrena won't be messing around. Since he rested all of his regulars during mid-week in Libertadores, he has plenty of options today, and he won't leave anyone behind (despite having to play in Peru on Thursday). All regulars are ready to play, and an offensive formation is being prepared, with 3 forwards: Bueno, Alonso and Sanchez (8 goals scored between them, from 14).In front of them, they'll have El Tanque Sisley, who've made a great start of this championship, but lately they've lost the pace, losing 4 of the last 5 matches. They did have some heavy fixtures, having to play River, Penarol and Defensor Sporting, but since Nacional is around the same level as them, the outcome should be similar. El Tanque lost all the games against heavy opposition, and in the last 2 years, Nacional have soundly beaten them when playing at home. Odds went back to normal, so this bet is definitely worth taking. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Nacional - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

If there's one thing we should be expecting in this match, than it must be goals. Nacional are set as big favorites, but I don't see it as being that easy for them, as they just had to play an exhausting match in Copa Libertadores at high altitude. However, after two of Defensor's best players have left the team, I can't trust them too much either, so I'll stay away from any handicaps. But a bet on goals looks good for several reasons: first of all, the aforementioned possible tiredness for Nacional's players, which could lead to some midfield/defensive mistakes. Then, we have their attacking style of play, which leaves a lot of space at the back. They have good and fast forwards, but they have also been prone to a lot of defensive mistakes recently (they played 2 official games this season, scoring 5 and conceding 5 - strikers Alonso and Sanchez both have 2 goals scored). And for this match, both teams are looking rather offensive on paper, with a tactical formation of 4-3-3. That may not mean much on the field, but they also have a nice history of scoring goals, as 6 of their last 10 games have ended with at least 3 goals (3 of their last 4 actually ended with 2-2 scores). The line is a bit higher than I would have liked, but if both teams stay true to their game plans, we should have an easy winner here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Toluca - Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Another bet for tonight, as pretty much all Libertadores games look bet-worthy. And for this match, we have a simple explanation. First of all, Nacional looked awful in their first group match against Barcelona, going down to a 0-2 deficit, while showing absolutely nothing on the pitch. They were able to come back into the game though, thanks to some remarkable fighting spirit, but their overall performance was still appalling. And for tonight, they'll have to do without two of their best players: 'El Loco' Abreu and Alvaro Recoba... doesn't matter how old they are, they are still the brains of the team, especially the latter, and for sure Nacional are going to struggle without them. The second argument against the Uruguayans is the altitude. Toluca is situated at over 2600 meters above sea level, and this is going to put even more pressure on Nacional, as they are by no means used to play under these circumstances. And this isn't just a bet against Nacional. Toluca made an incredible start to their campaign, winning 2-1 at Boca Juniors, in a match where they hardly had to break a sweat, despite trailing at the interval. With that result, they managed to end their poor run, and now morale should be at the top. I see Nacional as having to struggle once again, and the Mexicans should come out on top. GL!

Toluca (-0.75 AH) @ 1.95, 4/10
Result: 2-3, LOST

Nacional - Barcelona

Copa Libertadores 2013

The main stage of the Copa Libertadores begins tonight, and we have a full menu, as this week presents to us a whooping 13 matches. And Nacional Montevideo will open the ceremony, against Barcelona of Ecuador. High hopes are in store for the Uruguayan side, as they have greatly strengthened their team with some very experienced players. The new signings include forward Ivan Also (played in Spain for Alaves, Murcia and Espanyol), midfielder Juan Albin (also played with Getafe and Espanyol), veteran forward Sebastian 'Loco' Abreu (long-career, including spells with Real Sociedad, and several teams in Mexico and Argentina), Colombian defender Efrain Cortes and midfielder Diego Arismendi (played for a few teams in the English Championship League). So we can see good players, with plenty of experience, that would definitely provide a boost to the team. And all of them come in addition to the core of the team, that remains pretty much the same as last year. Meanwhile, Barcelona have also kept most of their main players, but their performances this year have been poor. 2 draws in the beginning of the season, in which they didn't show much, plus a defeat last weekend (not very important, since they were missing quite a few regulars). I don't really see them as being able to snatch even a point here, in front of a fully packed Parque Central Stadium. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Nacional - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

My 'favorite' team, Liverpool Montevideo, are playing as visitors in Parque Central, against Nacional, and this is another good opportunity for a good bet. I did mention previously about their very short squad, and nothing has changed since them. However, they do have a very successful campaign in Copa Sudamericana, where they have a chance to qualify for the quarter-finals, so they are definitely giving priority to that. That's why today they will be resting a few players, including forward Carlos Nunez (5/10) and defenders Mauricio Felipe (5/0) and Barboza (5/0). They are playing too well even in normal circumstances, so today I can only expect them to struggle even more. Meanwhile, Nacional has apparently found the correct formula, with an offensive style of play (they are using a 4-3-3 tactic), and also with the right players in the right positions (the forwards, for exmple, have very good speed, and can exploit any defensive gaps). They only failed to win 2 games in this Apertura: a 2-2 draw against Defensor Sporting, and a 1-2 loss at Cerro, on a very poor pitch that prevented them from playing their normal game. Nacional won their last 3 games against Liverpool, and today it will be a good opportunity to add to that number. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON

Nacional - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The line is sky-high, so I'll only take it with minimal stake, and I do so because I just can't miss this bet after seeing the teams' line-ups. Nacional is usually a very offensive and overish team, but today they will have even a more offensive formation, with 3 forwards (Luna, Medina, Bueno) plus Alvaro Recoba behind them. Speed is not his best skill, but his passing can break Cerro's defense, same as his free-kicks, and we should have enough speed on the flanks. Their defense is as poor as usual, so for sure they can (and most likely will) concede, especially since experienced striker Horacio Peralta will make his debut for Cerro Largo. Now, when it comes to the visitors, they are nothing special, losing the first round 2-3 at home against Montevideo Wanderers. So receiving 3 goals from Nacional is more than do-able, especially since their defensive line also crumbles when they are put under pressure. And just for statistics, if we look at their previous mutual matches, in 5 of their last 6 games Nacional and Cerro Largo finished with a minimum of 4 goals, as they have an average of 4 goals scored per match in those 6 games between them. This should really happen again, but as I said, only small stakes due to the high line. GL!

over 3.25 goals @ 2.00, 2/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Nacional - Deportes Iquique

Copa Sudamericana 2012

After losing the first leg with 0-2 in Chile, Nacional now have to repeat the same score in order to push the game into extra-time, or to win by at least 3 goals to qualify directly. And it will be a tough job, as Iquique aren't exactly pushovers, and Nacional haven't accomplished a feat like that (qualifying after losing the first leg as visitors) for over 11 years. Still, they will give it their best, and that is why tonight we will see a much more offensive formation than 2 weeks ago. Coach Diaz is expected to field a 4-3-3 formation, with Sanchez, Medina and Bueno up front, trying to press from the first minute, and score rapidly to increase their chances. And they have some chances to pull an amazing come-back, as Iquique's performances (especially in away games) aren't great. In this year's Clausura, they have received 11 goals in the 6 games played, including two away trashings: 0-5 at Rangers Talca, and a 1-4 at Huachipato. This contrasts greatly with their Apertura performance, when they were the best away team in the league, finishing the tournament undefeated. The atmosphere in Montevideo should also be hellish, and it will push Nacional from behind. Once again, I have to choose between the handicap and the over, and I'm going for the handicap, as I;m expecting Nacional to have possession and dominate the match. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Nacional - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Hard to find a good bet in this last round of the Uruguayan championship, as only two teams still have something to play for. And from those two teams, I've chosen Nacional Montevideo. They are the Apertura winners, and will play for sure in the league's semi-final (which could transform in the league final). The scenario goes like this: the Apertura and the Clausura winners will play in the semi-final, and the winner will play in the final against the winner of the Anual table. Since Nacional and Defensor are the Apertura and Clausura champions, and they are also the only teams with chances to win the annual table, everything will be decided between them. And the important thing in this case is that if the Annual champion also wins it's semi-final match, they will be automatically win the league. If not, they will have to play a second game, which will count as the final. So it's quite a lot at stake here. Nacional are undefeated in their last 8 games in the league, and today Cabrera and Recoba are again expected to start in the midfield, with Porta and Viudez responsible with the goals. Liverpool plays for nothing, so it will be all up to Nacional to win the Annual table. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10

Result:  4-3, HALF-WON

Nacional - Vasco

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

The qualification issue has already been dealt with in this group, with Vasco and Libertad going to the next stage, while Nacional and Alianza will remain at home once the group stage finishes. So, for Gallardo's boys this match is of no importance, as he aims to save the season in the local league, where he sits on 5th place, 5 points behind leaders Liverpool. The next few rounds will provide Nacional with a good schedule, where they should make the maximum number of points, so in order to keep his players fit and to avoid injuries, Gallardo will rest most regulars for today's match, and will face the Brazilians with a reserve team. So that means that we won't be seeing too much of players like Scotti, Recoba, Damonte, Rolin, Viudez, Porta or Medina. Vasco also comes in this match without pressure, but I'm sure they will like to end this group on the top spot, and for that they will need to win. They will be without Juninho and Felipe, but other than that there aren't many surprises announced, with Alecsandro expected to play from the start. Very good odds for this match, where despite the lack of motivation, there should be a big enough quality gap. GL!

Vasco DNB @ 2.03, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON

Nacional - Alianza Lima

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

In the first leg, the over didn't deliver as I expected, but this time, Nacional should take control of the match, and I'm confident they will make a great match. They could've snatched a point even last week, despite playing the closing moments of the match with 2 men less, so today they should be more focused and determined to get the result. Especially since both them and Alianza are in a rather poor place, and a defeat today will pretty much see them out of the competition. Alianza failed to cope with Nacional's speed in their previous match, so coach Gallardo will make his bets on speed again, with some quick wingers and forwards, in order to destabilize a slow defense. Viudez, Sanchez and Bueno will be responsible for creating danger in the third part of the field. Alianza will most likely come to defend, and will hope to hit on the couters with Fernandez as their only goal-mouth. And if previously I've mentioned Nacional's defensive issues, they shouldn't get any better today. They haven't shown much improvement defensive-wise in their last matches, and the suspensions of Damonte (def midfielder) and Placente (defender) will definitely not help them. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.86, 5/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Alianza Lima - Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

If there's Nacional, there is always a good setting for goals, and this should be no exception. Won't go into details again, but a good offense and a poor offense should do the trick again. Especially since neither of these teams can afford to lose points, and I am confident that both will go for the win. First of all, Nacional kick-started their Libertadores campaign with a huge surprise, winning 2-1 in Brazil, but all their hard work was wasted one week later, as they lost all points at home to Libertad. And since their home game with Vasco won't be even close to easy, they need to take some points from another travel, and Alianza seems to be the most accesible. Gallardo prepares a 4-3-3 tactic, with Viudez, Medina and Sanchez in attack, and Recoba and Bogghosian on the bench, so nice fire-power for the Uruguayans. Alianza is also desperate for points, as they currently have 0 after 2 matches. They still have 3 games to play at home, so there is still hope, but only one more wrong turn and they will be 99% out. Their defense is also on the poor side, managing to concede 7 goals in their 2 matches. They should also be well rested, as they had the weekend off. Also, from their 4 official matches of the year, all of them ended with at least 3 goals, while Nacional has 5 overs in 6 matches (except the last one, where they used a lot of substitues). Let's hope they keep with this trend. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.02, 5/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Racing - Nacional

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Today is a good chance for Nacional to take the lead in the league, but coach Gallardo is obviously putting more emphasis on Copa Libertadores (where they'll have to play in Peru next week), and is making a lot of changes in his team. Only 2 players can be considered full regulars, the goalkeeper and one defender, while the others feature from time to time, but only as substitutes of the other regulars, and rarely all of them at once. Even their feared offensive duo, Viudez and Medina, are being rested, and won't even be on the bench. Also, out for this match are defenders Scotti and Placente and midfielders Damonte and Cabrera. So, it will be interesting to see how an already troubled defense will do without 2 regular defenders and a defensive midfielder. In attack, Boghossian can do some damage if he's in a good day, but I never liked him too much, as he tends to miss too many chances. Meanwhile, Racing didn't have the best start of the tournament, with only 1 point after 3 matches, although they showed some signs of improvement last round, when they fought hard with Rampla, losing 3-4. Against Nacional they have mixed reactions, but we've seen them able to pose some problems (lost 2-3 last year, drew 2-2 at home in 2010, and won 3-2 as visitors in 2009), so against an alternative team, they could be able to snatch something. GL!

Racing (+1 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Nacional Montevideo - Rentistas

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The winning team does not change, and Gallardo appears to be an adept of this saying, as he prepared the same first 11 as in their last match, the 3-0 win over Cerrito. Even the substitutes will be the same tonight. This will be the first time this season when Gallardo will go with the same line-up, and that is normally good news, meaning that the coach is satisfied with the team's performance. With 10 points behind the leaders Penarol, the title race is as good as over for Nacional, but they still have to play and win for several reasons, mainly not to lose too much ground in the aggregate tables (which decides the qualifiers for the continental competitions) and to give Gallardo some breathing space, as he came under criticism lately. Rentistas are really a team to beat, especially if you have the quality players that Nacional has. Just 2 wins in 8 matches, and only 3 goals scored... really says a lot about the, especially about their offensive powers, and this is the main thing that took my mind off the over bet. Nacional only has 3 wins so far, but they are a very offensive team, having the second best attack in the league, with 16 goals scored. Today I expect them to score a couple of goals again, as Rentistas don't have what it takes to withhold for too long. GL!

Nacional (-1.5 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Bella Vista - Nacional

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Well, once again I'm going for the over in one of Nacional's matches. They have shown very good attacking skills this season, especially last round, when they trashed Cerro Largo 4-0. Even in the Copa Sudamericana defeat to U de Chile, they managed to get to the opponents are quite often, including missing a couple of clear-cut chances. And since that match was played only for 48 minutes, the players shouldn't be too tired, and that is one of the reasons why Gallardo will most likely repeat the same line-up that played against Cerro Largo and U de Chile, meaning the same formation with 3 attackers: Viudez, Boghossian and Porto, with Recoba also expected to enter in the second half. On the other side, we'll have a Bella Vista team that didn't manage to get a single point so far, losing all of their 6 matches, and having the worst defense in the league. Should be an easy prey for Nacional's best attack of the league. Gallardo's team has to bounce back from their Sudamericana elimination, in order to ease the pressure on the coach, and Bella Vista looks like the right team to do that. This should go as an easy win for Nacional, but since I hate backing the away team with a -1 handicap, I'll choose the over, because Nacional's defense is never to be trusted. GL!

over 2.75 @ 2.04, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Nacional Montevideo - U de Chile

Copa Sudamericana

Last week, for the first leg, I have decided to skip the over in favor of the home win, and it turned out to be a very good idea, but this time I fancy the over and I'm not passing on it again. Nacional showed a lot of improvements in the last round, and their new system with 3 forwards looked great. It's true, they did play against Cerro Largo, one of the weaker teams from the Uruguayan league, but that shouldn't minimize Nacional's merits. And Gallardo will repeat the same tactics tonight, since he needs a victory of at least 1-0 to force the tie in extra-time. The first result is dangerous for the Chileans, and U de Chile knows that very well, so I don't expect them to sit back and hope to keep the 0-0. It's not their style anyway, so I expect them to push forward, with caution of course, and get the goal that could kill the match. And they are also very dangerous on the counter attacks, and Nacional is still not impressive defensive-wise. They haven't conceded last match, but Cerro Largo put them little to none problems, which shouldn't be the case with U de Chile who have extended their winning run to 7 matches in all competitions, and to 9 in their league. I'm expecting goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10

Result: 0-2, CANCELLED 

The match was stopped in the 52nd minute, after one of the linesman got hit by a paper roll thrown from the stands.