Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!

Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON

Alianza Lima - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I see some nice value here. Real Garcilaso has already won the group, and their only objective now is to finish first in the aggregate table. But that's not very important, as the league winners only choose which leg of the final they can play at home, and where the third match will be played in case of a draw... it would be a nice advantage, but not something to die for. Besides, they are not a great team when it comes to playing away from home, and their place in the final has been assured by some perfect home performances, where they won 20 out of 21 games. Meanwhile, Alianza made the poorest season in their recent history, as they are second from bottom in their group, and only 14th in the aggregate table (out of 16 teams). So the least they can do tonight is to win their last match in front of their home fans, and their decent home form should help them with this (only lost 2 games at home). They have already beaten Garcilaso at home this season, 2-0 back in June, and an extra-motivation factor should be that today it will be Juan Jayo's last match as a professional footballer. I don't see Alianza losing this one. GL!

Alianza DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Juan Aurich - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Things are quite simple here, so I'll try to be short. Alianza played last night a friendly match with Atletico Madrid, which they lost by 3-0. And since the federation did not agree to postpone their league game with Juan Aurich, they will have to play today as well. Of course, they won't use the same players as yesterday, and this leaves a weakend team, with lots of youngsters, and just a few of the regular/more experienced players. Alianza has been struggling away from home even with all their players, having a 1-4-8 record, so I'm not expecting any miracles from them today. Aurich might not be very special, compared to last years, but at home they are still a solid team, winning 8 of their 13 matches, and have already beaten Alianza this year by 3-0. They should field a much more solid and experienced team, so they should take the win quite easily. GL!

Aurich (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Early bet here, as the odds will drop for sure, and I'll also be quite busy during the weekend. No line-ups are available yet, but probably both teams will use the best they have, and they should not be very different from their last matches. So that leaves us with form and overall quality: Alianza had a rough start to this season, with poor results and a state of financial insecurity. And even though some of their players have left the team, they still have a top-class squad, and they are more than capable of snapping out of their poor position in the table. And this can be visible from their recent form, as they are undefeated in their last 7 games, recording a morale boosting win against Cesar Vallejo, and snatching up points from tough travels at Jose Galvez, Leon, San Martin and Comercio. Also, they won 7 out of 10 matches at home, so it seems that their internal problems didn't affect them too much. Melgar might be on the 4th spot for the moment, but 90% of their merits are due to their home games, played at quite a high altitude (8-1-1 is their home form). When they travel, they are a totally different team, losing 6 games from 10, and making up points against poor teams like Cobresol or Sport Boys. They shouldn't pose too many problems to Alianza, and this should go as an easy home win. GL!

Alianza (-1 AH) @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Inti Gas - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Didn't like a single match from today's schedule, until some recent odds movement (unjustified, as far as I know) made this bet a value bet. Odds opened at around 2.00 for the home win, and now we have much better odds for the -0.25 handicap, so this bet is definitely worth a shot. Alianza is a mess at the moment, with lots of administrative and financial problems, so a lot of players have either already left the club, either are on the verge of leaving. At home they are still performing well, especially since last week they won the Super Clasico, 1-0 with Universitario, but there was a lot of motivation from the players in that match, and Universitario isn't in a much better state. Away from home, however, Alianza is a totally different team, losing all 3 matches played so far. Two of them were at high altitude (1-2 at Garcilaso and 0-3 at Melgar), and today as well the altitude should play a role. Inti Gas is traditionally a good home team, with a 2-1-1 record this year, including a win against Universitario. Also, Alianza managed to win on this stadium only last year, when they were in great form, and their record in Ayacucho is 1-1-3. Current odds worth a medium bet. GL!

Inti Gas (-0.25) @ 2.17, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Alianza Lima - Vasco da Gama

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Vasco da Gama comes into this match as great favorites, but I don't expect things to be so easy for them. They've only managed to beat the handicap in one game, two weeks ago at home against Libertad. Otherwise, they were a team of ups and downs, losing at home to Nacional, struggling to beat Alianza at home (3-2, despite having an extra man for the entire second half - also missed 2 penalties) and drawing 1-1 in Paraguay. Now, with two away games left, they need all the points from this match, otherwise they could be left out of the competition. Therefore, I expect them to attack and impose the game, like in the first leg, especially since Alianza's defense isn't anything special, and Souza, Nilton and Alecsandro should find plenty of spaces. For the Peruvians this is also a capital match, and only if they win they can still hope to achieve something in this group. They are motivated, the coach having rested several of his key players during their weekend match, so I also expect them to go out looking for the win. Vasco's defense isn't very solid either, so Fernandez and Arroe could also have some chances. The bottom line here is that neither team affords to lose, so they will most likely go for the win. Two goals is the minimum I expect, but we should see plenty more. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.76, 4/10

Result: 1-2, WON

FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

I guess by now everybody knows the story by now: Alianza will use a mixed squad, mostly reserves, for this match, in order to rest their regulars for their last chance to qualify to the next stage of Copa Libertadores. But besides that, they are also in a deep financial and administrative crisis, and as a result of that they had some points deducted, and are now sitting dead-last in the standings, with -2 points. However, I think that this will only motivate the Alianza players, and they will fight even harder for a win today. And besides, looking at the squad that traveled to Arequipa, we can still see a lot of good players, like Libman, Edson Aubert, Miguel Curiel, Cristofer Soto or Junior Viza. So they still have plenty of quality left, and with that extra-motivation that I expect after the points deduction, they certainly won't be such easy victims as the current odds suggest. Melgar have been doing fine until now, with 2 wins from 4 matches, but when they faced some real opposition, they lost tragically, 1-4 at Cesar Vallejo. The high altitude could be considered an advantage, but Alianza are one of the teams that can cope with that. So, all in all, regardless of the circumstances, the current odds have some nice value, so let's hope Alianza won't disappoint.

Alianza (+0.5 AH) @ 2.32, 3/10

Result: 3-0, LOST

Nacional - Alianza Lima

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

In the first leg, the over didn't deliver as I expected, but this time, Nacional should take control of the match, and I'm confident they will make a great match. They could've snatched a point even last week, despite playing the closing moments of the match with 2 men less, so today they should be more focused and determined to get the result. Especially since both them and Alianza are in a rather poor place, and a defeat today will pretty much see them out of the competition. Alianza failed to cope with Nacional's speed in their previous match, so coach Gallardo will make his bets on speed again, with some quick wingers and forwards, in order to destabilize a slow defense. Viudez, Sanchez and Bueno will be responsible for creating danger in the third part of the field. Alianza will most likely come to defend, and will hope to hit on the couters with Fernandez as their only goal-mouth. And if previously I've mentioned Nacional's defensive issues, they shouldn't get any better today. They haven't shown much improvement defensive-wise in their last matches, and the suspensions of Damonte (def midfielder) and Placente (defender) will definitely not help them. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.86, 5/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Alianza Lima - Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

If there's Nacional, there is always a good setting for goals, and this should be no exception. Won't go into details again, but a good offense and a poor offense should do the trick again. Especially since neither of these teams can afford to lose points, and I am confident that both will go for the win. First of all, Nacional kick-started their Libertadores campaign with a huge surprise, winning 2-1 in Brazil, but all their hard work was wasted one week later, as they lost all points at home to Libertad. And since their home game with Vasco won't be even close to easy, they need to take some points from another travel, and Alianza seems to be the most accesible. Gallardo prepares a 4-3-3 tactic, with Viudez, Medina and Sanchez in attack, and Recoba and Bogghosian on the bench, so nice fire-power for the Uruguayans. Alianza is also desperate for points, as they currently have 0 after 2 matches. They still have 3 games to play at home, so there is still hope, but only one more wrong turn and they will be 99% out. Their defense is also on the poor side, managing to concede 7 goals in their 2 matches. They should also be well rested, as they had the weekend off. Also, from their 4 official matches of the year, all of them ended with at least 3 goals, while Nacional has 5 overs in 6 matches (except the last one, where they used a lot of substitues). Let's hope they keep with this trend. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.02, 5/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Universitario - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division

Another episode of El Superclasico of Peru, as Universitario and Alianza are trying to win the only match that really matters for their fans. The pressure is surely on La 'U', as they need to win this match for several reasons: first of all, simply because it's the biggest derby, but also because they need the points to keep hoping of a Libertadores position at the end of the season (they are currently 4 points behind the 3rd placed Leon). Alianza can take it a bit more relaxed, as they are the leaders, and have a very nice advantage in front of the tables, and for them to miss the league final would be close to impossible. But everyone will put their problems aside, and we'll probably have a very disputed match, as we always have. In the last 10 Superclasicos, only 3 of them had at least 3 goals, showing that both these teams would prefer not to lose this match, rather than win it (4 of the last 10 ended in draws). So I expect another close affair, likely with very few goals, especially since Alianza made 6 unders in their last 10 matches, while Universitario has 8 under in the last 10. Moreover, Universitario is also missing 2 of their forwards, Johan Fano and Pedro Garcia, so I seriously doubt this will be a goal-fest. My call would be on a 0-0. GL!

under 2 goals @ 1.87, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Jaguares Chiapas - Alianza Lima

Copa Libertadores

Huge odds on Alianza in my opinion. Yes, they made a disastrous match in the first leg, but they can't possibly play any poorer than that. They are 0-2 behind in this qualifying leg, and they have to give all they got in order to maintain their hopes of reaching the group stages. It's going to be tough, as Jaguares showed some close-to-perfect tactics last week, but seriously, Alianza priced at 4.7... I was expecting the handicap lines to be at +0, and I probably still would have taken them, but with +0.75... Everyone at the club has expressed optimism, not necessarily for the qualification, but at least to change the image they left after the first game. And regardless of that first leg result, I still see Alianza as the better club here. Coach Costas will probably make some changes, fielding 3 or 4 younger players instead of those who disappointed the most last week, and this could prove to be a good idea, as they will try their hardest to impress, especially since 2 of them (Leonardo Castro and Junior Viza) are new signings. And with Jaguares looking in a slight decline of form recently in the league (lost the last 2 games, and are winless for 3 matches), they might be surprised by the Peruvians, especially if they start the match thinking the 2-0 snatched in Peru would suffice. The high odds/low lines on Alianza are a must try in my opinion. GL!

Alianza Lima (+0.75 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Alianza Lima - Jaguares Chiapas

Copa Libertadores

Nice odds on the Peruvians here, despite them dropping a bit since the market opened. Alianza wants the qualification to the Group stage, and for this they want and need to win, and win big, in order to save themselves from extra-stress in the tricky return leg. Alianza had a solid off-season, managing to bring in some good players like Junior Viza (who unfortunately won't play today), or Christian Ramos from the league champions. They also played several friendlies in Argentina, with positive results, the highlight being their success in the Copa Ciudad de Rosario, ahead of Newell's and Universidad Catolica, in which they played some good matches, and their strikers Ovelar and Peirone (who are expected to start tonight as well) seemed pretty comfortable. Jaguares looked like an uncomfortable team in the Mexican Apertura, but if there's one thing they miss, that's international experience, and they really need that against a rival like Alianza. They also needed to travel over 3000 km to Peru, this coming right after a match on Sunday, so some heavy legs are to be expected. Moreover, Jagures have only won 2 times as visitors in the league (one of them being away at lowly Necaxa), so for sure they are going to face some problems in Lima, against a team that knows how to put pressure, and against a fanatic public. Despite the drop, the odds are still good in my opinion, as the real price shouldn't have been more than 1.60 for Alianza. GL!

Alianza Lima (-0.5 AH) @ 1.85, 5/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams have finished the season in the upper part of the table, and neither one of them has the necessity to win here. Furthermore, both teams will be using alternative teams, for different reasons. San Martin will rest all of their regular players, because just like Leon, they have to play the final in just 4 days, so it's essential for them to avoid injuries or suspensions. And most of the players that are expected to play today are the ones that also played last week, losing at home to the last placed team, Total Chalaco. Not impressive... On the other hand, Alianza secured their Libertadores spot, in favor of Universitario, and with their objective clinched, they have decided to give early holidays to several key players, the ones that have been playing constantly. Therefore, players like Libman (GK), Fleitas (DF), Gonzalez (MF), Alex Sanchez (MF) and Quinteros (MF) won't take any parts in today's clash. But, besides the players already in the off-season, coach Costas has stated he will use the best available players, as he wishes to avenge that 0-4 trashing they received last time they played against San Martin. And even without those 5 players, they should still have enough quality left to dispatch San Martin's reserves/youngsters. Smaller stakes than for Sport Boys though. GL!

Alianza Lima @ 2.05, 4/10 

Result: 1-1, LOST

Alianza Lima - Total Chalaco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Another capital match for both of them. Alianza is going for the Libertadores ticket, having Universitario breathing down on the back of their necks, while Chalaco is playing their last hopes of remaining in the division for 2011. However, Chalaco's hopes should begin fading, as realistically speaking, they can only fight for the 3 points against Inti Gas in the last round. Don't see how they will be able to snatch some points here, or next round at San Martin. Adding to that, Chalaco's financial troubles are still of actuality, and even this week there have been protests from the players, threatening the directors, and missing a few training sessions, being on strike. Morale is low, money is scarce, relegation looks like a certain thing, so probably, deep inside, the players have already surrendered. Meanwhile, Alianza should give their best, and make the most of this match, as it will put them 5 points clear of Universitario, and it will give them some fresh air before the last 2 rounds, which could turn to be very difficult for them (at Inti Gas and hosting San Martin in the last round). And after two good results, the 2-2 draw with Universitario and the 1-0 win at Cristal, morale should also be at the top. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-1, HALF LOST

Alianza Lima - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Following last week's semi-bump that Alianza received at Jose Galvez, following their 1-1 draw, the gap between Los Intimos and Universidad San Martin grew even bigger, but with the Saints winning their first leg in the Sudamericana, they are hopeful of a longer run, and just as well, Alianza will be hopeful San Martin will take some bad steps in the league as well. But first of all, they will need to change their play, as against Jose Galvez they weren't even nearly impressive. That is why everybody at the club, from staff to manager and to players want to put in their best performance today, and score as many as possible to CNI. Despite their small set-back last week, Alianza are still the most in-form team, winning 7 out of their last 10 league games, and is also one of the best home teams, equal with Leon on the stats, losing just 1 and drawing 2 more. Goal difference is pretty much as impressive as Leon's, so a win today shouldn't be a problem. One more interesting thing is that Alianza has won all their games against CNI since last year, most of them by a huge difference of goals, and their most recent one was two months ago, when Alianza trashed them with a 4-1 score. I can't really see CNI holding out here, and a handicap win for Alianza seems more than possible. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Jose Galvez - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

At the first look, I didn’t like this match at all, but after some more thought into it, it started to look better and better. I mean, the class difference between the teams was more than obvious from the beginning, and their positions on the table and their objectives speak for themselves. Jose Galvez can be a decent team, but only when they are playing against other strugglers, and even then, they rarely win (from the last 10 games they’ve only won one, at Sporting Cristal, but they were missing a lot of first team regulars… otherwise, they lost against almost all of the big teams they have faced). Don’t see how they will save themselves from relegation, as in comparison to them, even Sport Boys and Total Chalaco look one class better.

Alianza is gunning the leader, and they need to pull all they can to get there, as they have a massive 7 points gap to cover. However, San Martin also plays in Sudamericana, and some slip-ups are expected, and that is on what Alianza is also counting. First tough match is today, and if San Martin loses at Cristal and Alianza wins, the gap shrinks to a more realistic 4 points. Besides, the run for the last Libertadores ticket is also wide open, after Leon’s stumble last night. MF Quinteros (10/2) and MF Joel Sanchez (21/3) won’t be able to play tonight, but otherwise, coach Costas has the best squad at his disposal, including Ovelar’s return (though it remains to be seen if he will be forced). Recent form and h-2-h are both in Alianza’s favor (they have won 9 of their last 14 encounters), and I’m pretty confident they will make it 10 tonight. GL!

Alianza Lima (-0.25 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10 

Result: 1-1, HALF LOST

Peru Primera Division - Last round of Descentralizado

I will try to write a few short opinions on most of the matches for this last round, at least for those matches that count. Here we go:

Alianza Lima - Chalaco
Alianza's only shot in this match is to go from the start to attack, score a few, and than hope that Leon doesn't win. Of course, they could take the second place even if both win, but it's highly unrealistic to think Alianza will win 5-0, while Leon only 1-0. So, chances are slim for Alianza to avoid San Martin's group, as even if they tank this match, there is a possibility that Cesar Vallejo won't win, so they will only lose contact with the leaders even more. All the players and the staff are saying they want to make a surprise, and to trash Chalaco, and I'm sure they will be really fired up for this game, especially since Chalaco doesn't have a very stable defense, and their record away from home isn't very encouraging. Also, coach Valencia left the team 3 days ago, leaving them in a rather poor and insecure state. The probable line-up will include the best they have, including some changes to give more speed to attack, and to force a few early goals. Moreover, there are some rumors that the referees will give Leon a tough time, so I'm sure there would be even more motivation for Alianza (not very trustworthy info, but you never know in Peru). I don't see Chalaco resisting too much, and I see an easy win for Alianza, with a few goals advantage. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.89, Sbobet, 5/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Leon Huanuco - Sport Huancayo
Last week, this match seemed like the banker of the century, and it still does, as I just can't imagine Leon not winning it here. But with the recent rumors that the referee could be a pain for the Huanuquenos, and with Sport Hunacayo's financial motivation from Alianza (although the president stated he won't accept any money from Alianza, and considered the move as unethical), I'm starting to have some worries about the handicap, as even a win with a one goal difference, 99% guarantees them the second spot. So, I'm going for the over again. Huancayo is used to playing at high altitude, so they shouldn't suffer in Huanuco like other teams do. And if they really believe what they say, they should still be hoping/fighting for an Internationl competition, and any point is welcome. An early goal from them would certainly help things with the over, but if they don't, I'm counting on Leon to do the job. They aren't fighting for the title just because they are at high altitude; they also have a great team, with some very good players, and knowing their style of play, they won't just sit back and defend an eventual 1-0 lead. GL!

over 2.5 @ 1.87, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 5-2, WON

Universidad San Martin - FBC Melgar
Little to say here. USM is with no doubt the best team in the league, already assured their ticket for Copa Libertadores, will probably start the Liguilla with an advantage of 9 points ahead of the second placed team, and could also receive 1 or 2 more points from their reserve team, which means they are 99% certain of playing the final of the league. Also, they have Copa Sudamericana duties, so they can take on the league matches with ease, and still make it comfortably to the final. Melgar is poor on the road, in a very bad form, so they shouldn't expect too much from this match. Normally, this should be an easy victory for USM, and I'm sure it will be, but for the handicap... I don't really know. They could just play for fun, make a nice show, etc, and no one will get upset if they just win 1-0 or 2-1. Should be a good combo material, but for the handicap will wait for something live, maybe the lines will go lower. GL!

Alianza Atletico - Universidad Cesar Vallejo
I'm skipping this one, as UCV is in a very tough position. They obviously want the 4th position, but are in the worst possible place to do it. Although they are 4th at the moment, things could change in just a few minutes, and here we have some different scenarios: if they win and Alianza loses (and it's not out of the question, if Leon and UCV both lead 3-0 after 20 minutes, Alianza could tank it), they move to 3rd place, which is bad. If they lose, and Universitario wins, they'll be on 5th place, which is even worse. This scenarios should be exploited in live-betting, depending on the score, and if the live-markets are available.

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal
I have a lot of respect for this team, as with such problems, I doubt many teams or players could have coped better with it. Their problems are well known: no money, debts, several players leaving, etc etc. But even so, when Ibarra took the helm at the team, they have been performing very well. I can remind about the 2 home wins against CNI and Inti Gas, and despite losing their last 2 away games, they did a very good job at Alianza Lima, showing that the players that stayed at the club are playing with their hearts. Now, things are starting to look better and better, as things settled down a bit, and it looks like the players will be payed soon. One more reason to give their best in this match, where altitude should benefit them (despite the problems, they are still 8-4-1 at home), and a win today could take them out of the hot zone for the Liguilla. Sporting Cristal lost pretty much all hope to challenge for the title, and can only hope for a Libertadores ticket, but even that could be very tough with their irregular recent form. They haven't won in Cuzco since 2003, and I don't see them too well today either. GL!

Cienciano @ 2.20, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 3-3, LOST