Peru Primera Division, Final
Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
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Showing posts with label Real Garcilaso. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Real Garcilaso. Show all posts
Dec 18, 2013
Dec 15, 2013
Universitario - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Final
Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Nov 10, 2013
Sporting Cristal - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!
Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON
In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!
Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON
Nov 2, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Union Comercio
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Sep 2, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Alianza Lima
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!
Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!
Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
Apr 17, 2013
Santa Fe - Real Garcilaso
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Interesting match in Colombia tonight, as Santa Fe are looking to clinch
the first place in the table against qualification hopefuls Real Garcilaso. The
Colombians only have to avoid a defeat in order to win the group, therefore a
draw would suit them well. On the other hand, Garcilaso also needs only a draw
to assure their qualification, regardless of what Tolima does in their match
against Cerro Porteno (it should be a Colombian win, as Cerro will be using a
team full of youngsters and reserves). Despite their efforts and their
incredible campaign in this competition, I still don't see Garcilaso as a team
to be reckoned with. But if they are good at one thing, that would be defending
and scoring on the counter at the perfect moment. They have lost just one game
so far, 0-3 at home against Tolima, when they tried to control the game. But
their best results came when playing as visitors, as they've beaten both Tolima
and Cerro Porteno by 1-0,. in the closing minutes of the game, after some heroic
defending. They will probably employ the same tactics today as well, because as
I've mentioned earlier, a draw would be perfect for both teams, and even if they
lose, I doubt they'll do so by more than one goal.
GL!
Garcilaso (+0.75 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Result: 2-0, LOST
Apr 11, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Cerro Porteno
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now. They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON
Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now. They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON
Mar 11, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Surprisingly enough, Garcilaso has so far not failed as they were expected. They are doing a good domestic campaign, and an incredible campaign in Libertadores, where they are topping the group with 7 points on their debut. I went against them several times before, and got burned almost every time, but the current odds are certainly an overreaction from the bookies. The only match where they shined was in the opening round against Huancayo, when they won 4-0. Other than that, I think it's fair to say that they were extremely lucky, especially in Libertadores, winning both matches with goals on counters in the closing minutes. Leon is used to playing at high altitude, and so far they've been looking solid (not very good, but solid enough). They are closing well the spaces, and since Garcilaso isn't too efficient in offense, this should be a closed-affair. It's just crazy to give a +1 handicap in such a match, especially since there won't be an altitude advantage. GL!
Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.14, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Surprisingly enough, Garcilaso has so far not failed as they were expected. They are doing a good domestic campaign, and an incredible campaign in Libertadores, where they are topping the group with 7 points on their debut. I went against them several times before, and got burned almost every time, but the current odds are certainly an overreaction from the bookies. The only match where they shined was in the opening round against Huancayo, when they won 4-0. Other than that, I think it's fair to say that they were extremely lucky, especially in Libertadores, winning both matches with goals on counters in the closing minutes. Leon is used to playing at high altitude, and so far they've been looking solid (not very good, but solid enough). They are closing well the spaces, and since Garcilaso isn't too efficient in offense, this should be a closed-affair. It's just crazy to give a +1 handicap in such a match, especially since there won't be an altitude advantage. GL!
Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.14, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Feb 27, 2013
Tolima - Garcilaso
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
This Real Garcilaso team is a real strange factor this season. They have lost most of their regulars, don't show much on the pitch and are also not impressive play-wise, but yet, they do not lose their matches. And their best feat was seen last week, as they won 1-0 away at Cerro Porteno (which must definitely count as the best result in the club's short history). Now the question is, how long can they keep it up? In Paraguay, they were being crushed by Cerro Porteno, barely leaving their own half as the Paraguayans kept pressing and attacking. But some terrible finishing from the hosts, and a great counter attack gave the Peruvians a famous 1-0 win. It is true that Cerro was in turmoil at that points, but that still doesn't take away Garcilaso's merits. And now I have confidence that Tolima is a strong enough team to put an end to their dream-run. They don't have a star-filled team, but they have a solid squad, and so far everything went pretty good for them: 4 points in Libertadores, and only one defeat in the local league (last weekend, 0-3 against Boyaca Chico - they used mostly reserves in that match). Won't be an easy match, but I don't think Tolima can fail to win this match, so I'm going for the -1 handicap. GL!
Tolima (-1 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
This Real Garcilaso team is a real strange factor this season. They have lost most of their regulars, don't show much on the pitch and are also not impressive play-wise, but yet, they do not lose their matches. And their best feat was seen last week, as they won 1-0 away at Cerro Porteno (which must definitely count as the best result in the club's short history). Now the question is, how long can they keep it up? In Paraguay, they were being crushed by Cerro Porteno, barely leaving their own half as the Paraguayans kept pressing and attacking. But some terrible finishing from the hosts, and a great counter attack gave the Peruvians a famous 1-0 win. It is true that Cerro was in turmoil at that points, but that still doesn't take away Garcilaso's merits. And now I have confidence that Tolima is a strong enough team to put an end to their dream-run. They don't have a star-filled team, but they have a solid squad, and so far everything went pretty good for them: 4 points in Libertadores, and only one defeat in the local league (last weekend, 0-3 against Boyaca Chico - they used mostly reserves in that match). Won't be an easy match, but I don't think Tolima can fail to win this match, so I'm going for the -1 handicap. GL!
Tolima (-1 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Feb 17, 2013
Cienciano - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
I'm gonna take this bet early, without waiting for any line-up confirmation, because regardless of the playing conditions, this has a certain amount of value. First of all, I am expecting some changes in Garcilaso's team, as this would be their third match in 7 days, and just a couple of days later they will have to travel to Paraguay for another Libertadores clash against Cerro Porteno. They showed some good performances so far, despite the fact that most of the key players from last season have left the team, but this time it should be slightly different, as the regulars will be tired, while the reserves probably still need time to blend in with the team. Cienciano should be well rested, as they didn't have to play a single match so far, so they should have had more than enough time to prepare for this Clasico (both teams are from Cuzco, and even share the same stadium, so there won't be any home/altitude advantage). Last year they exchanged wins and points, with either team taking the victory when playing as 'hosts', so I'm expecting something similar to happen. Garcilaso doesn't have such a strong squad to focus on more competitions at the same time, and the good start they have in Libertadores should make them look to Cerro Porteno. GL!
Cienciano (+0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
I'm gonna take this bet early, without waiting for any line-up confirmation, because regardless of the playing conditions, this has a certain amount of value. First of all, I am expecting some changes in Garcilaso's team, as this would be their third match in 7 days, and just a couple of days later they will have to travel to Paraguay for another Libertadores clash against Cerro Porteno. They showed some good performances so far, despite the fact that most of the key players from last season have left the team, but this time it should be slightly different, as the regulars will be tired, while the reserves probably still need time to blend in with the team. Cienciano should be well rested, as they didn't have to play a single match so far, so they should have had more than enough time to prepare for this Clasico (both teams are from Cuzco, and even share the same stadium, so there won't be any home/altitude advantage). Last year they exchanged wins and points, with either team taking the victory when playing as 'hosts', so I'm expecting something similar to happen. Garcilaso doesn't have such a strong squad to focus on more competitions at the same time, and the good start they have in Libertadores should make them look to Cerro Porteno. GL!
Cienciano (+0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Feb 14, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Santa Fe
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
Another batch of newcomers will make their debut tonight in Copa Libertadores, the surprising Real Garcilaso. And I call them surprising because it's an incredible feat to be a newly promoted team and to fight for the championship all the way to the final. However, things should be different this season, as they have lost almost all of their main players from their last campaign. Everyone expects them to fail to live to their expectations now, but they once again made a surprise by clearly winning their first league match by 4-0 (a game that just a few people expected them to win). But with their team still trying to find their style and with the new players trying to blend in, they should suffer when they meet a real team. And Santa Fe looks like a team that can put them under a lot of pressure. First of all, they have the weapons needed to counter Garcilaso: the high altitude from Cusco won't affect them, as they play in similar conditions in Bogota. They have a solid team, with pretty good players, so they won't be pushed over so easily, and form is also on their side. They have played 4 official games this year, and they are yet to be defeated. And in that 4-match run, they recorded some nice results by winning the Super Cup against traditional team Millonarios (won both legs), and they also drew with Atletico Nacional (although they were the better team, and a win would have been a fair result). So despite Garcilaso's impressive start, I'd still consider the Colombians as the favorites here, and they should have enough to win it. GL!
Santa Fe DNB @ 2.08, 5/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
Another batch of newcomers will make their debut tonight in Copa Libertadores, the surprising Real Garcilaso. And I call them surprising because it's an incredible feat to be a newly promoted team and to fight for the championship all the way to the final. However, things should be different this season, as they have lost almost all of their main players from their last campaign. Everyone expects them to fail to live to their expectations now, but they once again made a surprise by clearly winning their first league match by 4-0 (a game that just a few people expected them to win). But with their team still trying to find their style and with the new players trying to blend in, they should suffer when they meet a real team. And Santa Fe looks like a team that can put them under a lot of pressure. First of all, they have the weapons needed to counter Garcilaso: the high altitude from Cusco won't affect them, as they play in similar conditions in Bogota. They have a solid team, with pretty good players, so they won't be pushed over so easily, and form is also on their side. They have played 4 official games this year, and they are yet to be defeated. And in that 4-match run, they recorded some nice results by winning the Super Cup against traditional team Millonarios (won both legs), and they also drew with Atletico Nacional (although they were the better team, and a win would have been a fair result). So despite Garcilaso's impressive start, I'd still consider the Colombians as the favorites here, and they should have enough to win it. GL!
Santa Fe DNB @ 2.08, 5/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
Nov 19, 2012
Alianza Lima - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
I see some nice value here. Real Garcilaso has already won the group, and their only objective now is to finish first in the aggregate table. But that's not very important, as the league winners only choose which leg of the final they can play at home, and where the third match will be played in case of a draw... it would be a nice advantage, but not something to die for. Besides, they are not a great team when it comes to playing away from home, and their place in the final has been assured by some perfect home performances, where they won 20 out of 21 games. Meanwhile, Alianza made the poorest season in their recent history, as they are second from bottom in their group, and only 14th in the aggregate table (out of 16 teams). So the least they can do tonight is to win their last match in front of their home fans, and their decent home form should help them with this (only lost 2 games at home). They have already beaten Garcilaso at home this season, 2-0 back in June, and an extra-motivation factor should be that today it will be Juan Jayo's last match as a professional footballer. I don't see Alianza losing this one. GL!
Alianza DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
I see some nice value here. Real Garcilaso has already won the group, and their only objective now is to finish first in the aggregate table. But that's not very important, as the league winners only choose which leg of the final they can play at home, and where the third match will be played in case of a draw... it would be a nice advantage, but not something to die for. Besides, they are not a great team when it comes to playing away from home, and their place in the final has been assured by some perfect home performances, where they won 20 out of 21 games. Meanwhile, Alianza made the poorest season in their recent history, as they are second from bottom in their group, and only 14th in the aggregate table (out of 16 teams). So the least they can do tonight is to win their last match in front of their home fans, and their decent home form should help them with this (only lost 2 games at home). They have already beaten Garcilaso at home this season, 2-0 back in June, and an extra-motivation factor should be that today it will be Juan Jayo's last match as a professional footballer. I don't see Alianza losing this one. GL!
Alianza DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Oct 7, 2012
Cesar Vallejo - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Top clash in Liguilla B of Peru, as leaders Real Garcilaso are visiting challengers Cesar Vallejo in what could be a title decider. If newly-promoted Garcilaso win, they would get 6 points clear at the top of the table, and I doubt they will be able to lose such an advantage. But this is the hard part: winning. Even though they are having an incredible campaign, one that they never dreamed of when they promoted, they are basing their results mostly on their home matches, where they have an impeccable record of 17-1-0, with just 4 goals conceded and 34 scored. Away from home, even though they are still tough to beat, they rarely win, having a 2-8-8 record. Most recently, they have managed to lose at Sport Boys, the worst team in the group, so Cesar Vallejo should be more than a match for them. Speaking of them, today's hosts are also a very strong home team, 13-3-1 with 34 goals scored and 11 conceded. They have won their previous home game with Garcilaso, 2-1 back in May, and with so much at stake today, I expect some extra-motivation from them. It won't be an easy match, that's for sure, but the 3 points should stay in Trujillo. GL!
Cesar Vallejo (-0.5 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Top clash in Liguilla B of Peru, as leaders Real Garcilaso are visiting challengers Cesar Vallejo in what could be a title decider. If newly-promoted Garcilaso win, they would get 6 points clear at the top of the table, and I doubt they will be able to lose such an advantage. But this is the hard part: winning. Even though they are having an incredible campaign, one that they never dreamed of when they promoted, they are basing their results mostly on their home matches, where they have an impeccable record of 17-1-0, with just 4 goals conceded and 34 scored. Away from home, even though they are still tough to beat, they rarely win, having a 2-8-8 record. Most recently, they have managed to lose at Sport Boys, the worst team in the group, so Cesar Vallejo should be more than a match for them. Speaking of them, today's hosts are also a very strong home team, 13-3-1 with 34 goals scored and 11 conceded. They have won their previous home game with Garcilaso, 2-1 back in May, and with so much at stake today, I expect some extra-motivation from them. It won't be an easy match, that's for sure, but the 3 points should stay in Trujillo. GL!
Cesar Vallejo (-0.5 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Sep 16, 2012
Real Garcilaso - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
The Liguilla has started, and in their group, Real Garcilaso are big favorites. Their home form has been brilliant so far, with a record of 15-1-0, and a win today could see them take back the leader's seat. And keep in mind that they are a newly promoted team. And exactly for that reason, I have some doubts they will be able to go all the way to the wire. And today they will have to face a team with more experienced, who already played a final of the league and also played in a continental competition. They haven't been enjoying the best season in 2012, as they are far away from the top places, but they are still a tough nut to crack, and even if they lose, they do it after a hard-fought match, and usually by the minimum difference. They haven't won for the last 9 consecutive away games, where they only managed to get one point, but all the losses came by just one goal, regardless of who they were playing against. No altitude advantage for Real today, and Leon could pose some problems here... despite the lack of results they are still strong, and as I said before, I have my doubts Real can challenge the title until the last breath. This line should be tried, but just with small stakes, as Leon's form isn't encouraging at all. GL!
Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.04, 2/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
The Liguilla has started, and in their group, Real Garcilaso are big favorites. Their home form has been brilliant so far, with a record of 15-1-0, and a win today could see them take back the leader's seat. And keep in mind that they are a newly promoted team. And exactly for that reason, I have some doubts they will be able to go all the way to the wire. And today they will have to face a team with more experienced, who already played a final of the league and also played in a continental competition. They haven't been enjoying the best season in 2012, as they are far away from the top places, but they are still a tough nut to crack, and even if they lose, they do it after a hard-fought match, and usually by the minimum difference. They haven't won for the last 9 consecutive away games, where they only managed to get one point, but all the losses came by just one goal, regardless of who they were playing against. No altitude advantage for Real today, and Leon could pose some problems here... despite the lack of results they are still strong, and as I said before, I have my doubts Real can challenge the title until the last breath. This line should be tried, but just with small stakes, as Leon's form isn't encouraging at all. GL!
Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.04, 2/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
Jul 18, 2012
Real Garcilaso - Sport Boys
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
It should be getting more and more risky to bet on Garcilaso, as I'm very sure they won't keep their perfect home record throughout the season, and they are bound to fail eventually, but I also don't see that happening today. 11 games won at home from 11 played, with 21 goals scored and only 2 conceded... they should be going for the record here, and even though the high altitude from their home city of Cusco did a lot to help, we can't minimize their merits, so the 3rd place that they sit on currently is more than justified (after all, they only lost 4 matches from the 23 the played). Meanwhile, Sport Boys sits near the bottom of the table, and have lost 7 games as visitors, from 11 played. Only two of them were played at high altitude: a 2-1 victory of Huancayo (right at the beginning of the season, when Huancayo was still just a shadow of the last year), and a 0-2 loss at Leon. But Sport Boys, besides being traditionally poor travelers, are also extremely poor when it comes to playing at altitude. The handicap is high indeed, but with the recent odds movements, this bet is definitely worth taking. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.5 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Jul 14, 2012
Cobresol - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Newcomers Real Garcilaso are the new leaders of the Primera Division of Peru, a great achievement for them, and it will be very interesting to see if they manage to keep this position until the end of the season. But that will be a very hard task, especially since when playing away from home, they are a totally different team. As a comparison, we have their incredible 11-0-0 home record, against their 1-6-4 away record. Still solid, for Peruvian standards, as they only lost 4 games, but with just 1 win, it shows clearly that they are traveling defensive-minded, with a draw as their objective. Meanwhile, Cobresol are simply awful, sitting on the last place in the standings, after a run of 6 games without a win. I don't expect much improvements (especially since last round I went against them with a -1.25 handicap), and they are 90% relegated at the moment, but with Garcilaso's timid approach of their away games, Cobresol should be more than able to snatch a draw here. I would have preferred the +0.5 line, but since that's not available, the +0.25 should work as well, at some nice odds. GL!
Cobresol (+0.25 AH) @ 2.23, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-WON
Jul 4, 2012
Real Garcilaso - Sporting Cristal
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Very nice odds movements for this match, and even though when the markets opened I said I will stay away, the recent odds just push me to take a bet here. And I will, so let's hope I won't regret it. Both teams are tied at the top of the table, with 35 points, just 2 behind leaders Cesar Vallejo. The quality advantage is obviously on Cristal's side, as they have probably the best squad in the league. But apparently, that advantage is just as important as Garcilaso's: the high altitude, as the club is situated in Cusco. So it should come as no surprise that they have a perfect home record, winning all 9 games played so far, with a goal difference of 17-2. But they also have a solid and competitive team, even though they lack any big names or stars... and it would be unfair to put their performances only on the high altitude (for example, Cienciano are playing in the exact same conditions, but they are only 13th in the table, with a 4-2-4 home record). Cristal has a 1-1-1 record at high altitude this season, winning at Leon, drawing at Huancayo and losing at Inti Gas. Of course, they have enough quality to overcome the altitudes' effects, but since they have often struggled away from home, and Garcilaso looks very strong in Cusco, I really think this should be a home win. Odds are also very good, as we have now -0.25 at pretty much the same odds as the opening ones on -0.5. GL!
Garcilaso (-0.25 AH) @ 2.02, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Jun 16, 2012
Real Garcilaso - Sport Huancayo
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
The Peruvian league is once again underway, with the second part of the league, and there are some potential nice bets there. First match of the round also looks very interesting, as surprise package Real Garcilaso will face Sport Huancayo at home. The newly promoted Garcilaso have been outstanding so far, sitting on second place with an incredible home record: 7-0-0, goal difference 14-2. The high altitude helps them a lot, but even away from home, they have only lost 2 out of 8 matches, so we can't take any credit away from them. Huancayo has been poor throughout the season, being a totally different team from last year. Their defensive line is a lot weaker, as they have one of the poorest defenses in the league. But they are used to play at high altitude, so I expect an edgy game today, with straight-forward play. Garcilaso won the first match in Huancayo, so the visitors should also be out for revenge, but with their defensive line, I can't see them conceding anything less than 2 goals. Usually, matches between high altitude teams end with lots of goals, so let's hope they will keep up this trend. Recent odds movements give us quite some nice value with this bet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 2.30, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
May 1, 2012
Leon de Huanuco - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Quite a low line for a type of match that usually provides goals. Real Garcilaso is without a doubt the surprise package of this season's Primera Division, sitting on second place after 10 rounds, only 1 point behind the leaders. And this is a great achievement for a team that promoted last season, after winning the Copa Peru, even though a great feat in this great run of form is the high altitude from their home ground, located in Cuzco. But not only that, as they also pulled off some nice results on some very difficult grounds (2-0 at Huancayo, 2-2 at Inti Gas, 0-0 at Juan Aurich). Now, this match will once again be played at high altitude, in Huanuco, and most of the times, when 2 teams used to the high altitude meet, there are several goals. Garcilaso is undefeated this year when playing 'high', but Leon are no pushovers, and are definitely better than Huancayo and Inti Gas. They also have an average of 2 goals scored/match at home, but with Garcilaso most probably coming to play football, not to put 10 men behind the ball, this line should be covered quite easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
Mar 18, 2012
Real Garcilaso - Cienciano
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
This should be an interesting high-altitude duel. Real Garcilaso has been the surprise package of the Primera Division so far, and they seem to have the potential to keep it going, especially with the high altitude from Cuzco, the city where they are based (so yes, this will be a local derby). And when 2 teams that play at altitude meet, we usually have a lot of goals. Real had some nice results, and also plenty of goals this season, scoring 6 goals in 3 matches, two of them ending in over. Cienciano didn't have a bad start themselves, but losing at home last week means that today they will be out for vengeance, and an offensive plan is expected. And with 5 goals scored in 3 matches (also, two overs), we should be having the right setting for a goal-fest here. So, as a short recap: both teams playing quite offensively so far; this will be a big local derby, so the win has an even bigger importance; both teams used to playing at high altitude, which usually provides with entertaining games. Also, as a reference, last year they played in the Torneo Intermedio, which Garcilaso won 3-1 (although it was a 95% fix from Cienciano, who had a poor financial state and wanted to avoid traveling in the next round). GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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