Santa Fe - Real Garcilaso

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Interesting match in Colombia tonight, as Santa Fe are looking to clinch the first place in the table against qualification hopefuls Real Garcilaso. The Colombians only have to avoid a defeat in order to win the group, therefore a draw would suit them well. On the other hand, Garcilaso also needs only a draw to assure their qualification, regardless of what Tolima does in their match against Cerro Porteno (it should be a Colombian win, as Cerro will be using a team full of youngsters and reserves). Despite their efforts and their incredible campaign in this competition, I still don't see Garcilaso as a team to be reckoned with. But if they are good at one thing, that would be defending and scoring on the counter at the perfect moment. They have lost just one game so far, 0-3 at home against Tolima, when they tried to control the game. But their best results came when playing as visitors, as they've beaten both Tolima and Cerro Porteno by 1-0,. in the closing minutes of the game, after some heroic defending. They will probably employ the same tactics today as well, because as I've mentioned earlier, a draw would be perfect for both teams, and even if they lose, I doubt they'll do so by more than one goal. GL!

Garcilaso (+0.75 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Santa Fe - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Everything seems to be against Cerro Porteno in this match. They are passing through their worst footballing moment in recent years, as they are rock bottom in both the local league, as well as in Copa Libertadores, and with 0 points in their group, following 3 straight defeats, they have minimal chances to qualify (close to 0 actually). Playing as visitors won't help them either, as Bogota is situated at 2600 meters above sea level, and that is quite a lot for a team not used to playing at such high altitudes. And to top it all, Cerro also have some squad/internal problems. winger Bonet is injured, while two other players have been left out of the trip by the manager's decision: playmaker Fabbro (4/2) and striker Nanni (who, as much as I hate, is still an important piece in the squad). Meanwhile, Santa Fe is flying high, as they are undefeated in the last 10 games in all competitions, and they have the qualification at stake, as Tolima will have a tough match in Cusco against Garcilaso, so a win against Cerro Porteno, corroborated with a failure of Tolima, would assure their qualifciation for around 90%. They are strong enough to see of this challenge, and even though the odds are rather low, I'll take the bet as I don't see Santa Fe failing. GL!

Santa Fe (-1 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Real Garcilaso - Santa Fe

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Another batch of newcomers will make their debut tonight in Copa Libertadores, the surprising Real Garcilaso. And I call them surprising because it's an incredible feat to be a newly promoted team and to fight for the championship all the way to the final. However, things should be different this season, as they have lost almost all of their main players from their last campaign. Everyone expects them to fail to live to their expectations now, but they once again made a surprise by clearly winning their first league match by 4-0 (a game that just a few people expected them to win). But with their team still trying to find their style and with the new players trying to blend in, they should suffer when they meet a real team. And Santa Fe looks like a team that can put them under a lot of pressure. First of all, they have the weapons needed to counter Garcilaso: the high altitude from Cusco won't affect them, as they play in similar conditions in Bogota. They have a solid team, with pretty good players, so they won't be pushed over so easily, and form is also on their side. They have played 4 official games this year, and they are yet to be defeated. And in that 4-match run, they recorded some nice results by winning the Super Cup against traditional team Millonarios (won both legs), and they also drew with Atletico Nacional (although they were the better team, and a win would have been a fair result). So despite Garcilaso's impressive start, I'd still consider the Colombians as the favorites here, and they should have enough to win it. GL!

Santa Fe DNB @ 2.08, 5/10
Result: 1-1, VOID

Santa Fe - Velez

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

I'm expecting some goals here, so this line obviously seems rather low. Velez doesn't seem like the most offensive team in Argentina, and that is true, but they come into this match on a nice goal-scoring form, as they have scored at least a goal in their last 9 matches (althoough in those 9 games they scored only 11 goals), but the fact is that they are scoring. And since they took their best players to Bogota (full strenght line-up is expected), I don't expect them to go down so easily, especially since they can do a lot of damage on counter-attacks. However, I'm expecting Santa Fe to be in a commanding position for this match, helped also by the altitude, and they can score the 2 goals needed for the void all by themselves. Especially since they enjoy being giant-killers, and for that we only need to look at their previous match, when they trashed Botafogo with 4-1. They should also be well rested, as they had a full week to prepare for this match, and know that a narrow 1-0 lead probably won't be enough for the second-leg. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

Santa Fe - Cesar Vallejo

Copa Sudamericana

Universidad Cesar Vallejo dreams of qualifying to the second round of Copa Sudamericana, but they might have a tough task ahead of them. They did manage to end their 5 match-run without a win, last week when they beat Sport Huancayo at home, but this time things shouldn't be that easy. Besides their poor form in the away games from their league, Cesar Vallejo will have to play tonight in the medium-high altitude of Bogota. They may be used to playing at altitude, since several Peruvian first teams are located in high cities, but it's never easy to do so. And we can look at the statistics of those matches: didn't win a single match at Cienciano from the last 10, won 1 out of 3 at Cienciano, 0 out of 3 at Leon de Huanuco, 0 out of 5 with Huancayo and 1 out of 9 at Melgar. So, they have only won 1 match from the 30 played at high altitude in the last 10 years. Bogota might be situated 'only' at 2600 meters of altitude, but we should also take into consideration the jet-lag, as there is an approximately 2000 km trip from Lima to Bogota. Overall, I rate Colombian football higher than the Peruvian one, and I think that everything here points towards a home win. Santa Fe can count on all their players, and they should be well rested, as the league still hasn't started yet. I'm going for the handicap, as I think Santa Fe will win it easier than the odds are suggesting. GL!

Santa Fe (-1 AH) @ 2.10, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Atletico Mineiro - Santa Fe

Copa Sudamericana

Santa Fe will be looking to take advantage of a troubled Atletico Mineiro side, when they face each other in tonight's Copa Sudamericana. The Brazilian team is fighting fiercely against relegation, as after a few mathces where they have shown some improvement, they find themselves just 2 points behind the safe zone. And most importantly, next weekend they will play at home against Avai, one of their main rivals for avoiding relegation, so their focus will surely go there. From the most notable misses, we can see that top scorer Diego Tardelli will miss the game through injury, same as midifielders Ricardinho (21/6) and Fabiano (10/0), as well as forward Daniel Carvalho (10/2). But besides them, more regulars are expected to be rested, as Mineiro's players are accusing a heavy state of fatigue, and to worsen that is the last thing they need before the 10 rounds of their Serie A. Meanwhile, a much fresher Colombian side will come to Brazil with all they have, and all their regulars are expected to start tonight's game. Despite some recent slip-ups in the league and the cup, they are still a side that needs to be taken into consideration, as their full attention goes to the Copa Sudamericana. These odds might seem fair under normal circumstances, but with the Brazilians in all sorts of problems, I think there's some value on the Colombians, and I don't expect them to lose here. GL!

Santa Fe (+0.75) @ 1.86, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST