Copa Sudamericana 2013, Quarter-finals
It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
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Showing posts with label Copa Sudamericana. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Copa Sudamericana. Show all posts
Nov 7, 2013
Nov 2, 2013
Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
Aug 1, 2013
Deportivo Pasto - FBC Melgar
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!
Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
We may have some poor Peruvian teams in this competition this year, but in my opinion, Melgar are by far the poorest. Looking at their squad, they don't have any 'big' players (maybe Meza Cuadra can be the exception), and I can't say they are a very solid squad either. And if we look at their league results this year, the whole picture gets even grimmer. They sit on 13th place, are without a win in their last 9 games, and they have also failed to win a single match that they've played away from home. Meanwhile, Pasto have managed to reach the semi-final of their league earlier this year, and have started the new tournament in good fashion, with a solid home win. They've kept pretty much the same squad as last season, so we can expect them to keep up their solid play. Also, Colombian teams are traditionally better than their Peruvian counterparts, and even much so if the Peruvian team is in Melgar's situation. If Pasto would have had the altitude advantage here, I would have taken this bet with high-stakes, but they don't (Melgar plays at a similar altitude), so we'll just settle for a medium stakes bet. GL!
Pasto (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
El Tanque Sisley - Colo Colo
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!
Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Not the best start in this year's Copa Sudamericana, betting-wise, so let's try to make things better-looking. We'll start in Uruguay, where El Tanque Sisley will be making their continental debut against Colo Colo of Chile. El Tanque made a name for themselves as being a tough team to break, and they also keep it as close as possible, regardless of the opposition. However, the performances that saw them qualify to Sudamericana have long been forgotten, as this year they've made a mediocre campaign, and they ended the season with 10 consecutive games without a win. They didn't sign any important players, and they also had to cut their preparations short, as the start of Sudamericana was moved 2 weeks earlier. They are a team without any international experience, and I expect them to struggle against better teams, like Colo Colo. The Chileans, who just started the domestic league, were the fools of the first round, as they were trashed 0-4 by Audax, despite having an extra man for about 50 minutes (during which the score went from 0-0 to 0-2). I'm expecting this result to give them a 'kick' and some extra-motivation. They have the quality, no doubt about it, so it's just a matter of recovering after the previous results. This line gives us an insurance in case of a draw, so I'll gladly take it. GL!
Colo Colo DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 0-1, WON
Jul 31, 2013
Sport Huancayo - Emelec
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Nacional Asuncion - The Strongest
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!
over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Jul 30, 2013
Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!
Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Dec 6, 2012
Tigre - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2012, Final
Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!
Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!
Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Oct 31, 2012
Gremio - Millonarios
Copa Sudamericana 2012, Quarter-finals
As Copa Sudamericana is entering it's latter stages, more and more teams are starting to take it more seriously, and one of these teams is Gremio. Besides striker Kleber, who is doubtful after suffering a minor injury in his last match, everybody else is ready to go, as a full strength Gremio is expected to take the field on Tuesday night. If in the last round we saw Millonarios facing another Brazilian team, Palmeiras, and they managed to qualify after a great comeback in the second leg, this time we'll have a different story. Palmeiras used a mixed team in the two legs, and were still the better team when they played in Brazil, winning 3-1. If Gremio uses their best players, it will be a lot harder for the Colombians, as Gremio also has a better squad than Palmeiras. Of course, Millonarios could strike on the counter attack, which is one of their favorite tactics when playing away from home. With both teams expected to use their best squads, and with a place in the semi-final at stake, I think this should be a nice clash to watch, and the goals should come. Gremio is of course the favorite here, but the handicap line is too big if we think that Millonarios can also score. Therefore, the over bet seems like a much better choice. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
As Copa Sudamericana is entering it's latter stages, more and more teams are starting to take it more seriously, and one of these teams is Gremio. Besides striker Kleber, who is doubtful after suffering a minor injury in his last match, everybody else is ready to go, as a full strength Gremio is expected to take the field on Tuesday night. If in the last round we saw Millonarios facing another Brazilian team, Palmeiras, and they managed to qualify after a great comeback in the second leg, this time we'll have a different story. Palmeiras used a mixed team in the two legs, and were still the better team when they played in Brazil, winning 3-1. If Gremio uses their best players, it will be a lot harder for the Colombians, as Gremio also has a better squad than Palmeiras. Of course, Millonarios could strike on the counter attack, which is one of their favorite tactics when playing away from home. With both teams expected to use their best squads, and with a place in the semi-final at stake, I think this should be a nice clash to watch, and the goals should come. Gremio is of course the favorite here, but the handicap line is too big if we think that Millonarios can also score. Therefore, the over bet seems like a much better choice. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Oct 24, 2012
Millonarios - Palmeiras
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Second leg of Copa Sudamericana eight-finals will take place this week, and there should be some very interesting matches. First stop will be in Colombia, where Millonarios will try to take revenge on Palmeiras for the 1-3 loss in the first leg. I did mention some squad problems for the Brazilians in the first leg, and pretty much nothing has changed since then. They are still deeply involved in the relegation battle, and with a lot of tired players, they will again have to rest several pairs of legs. For example, it is almost certain that striker Barcos (23/11), defender Mauricio Ramos (20/0) and midfielder Marcos Assuncao (15/2) won't take part in this match, as they didn't make the trip to Colombia. Furthermore, midfielders Joao Vitor (17/0) and Jorge Valdivia (14/0) are still injured, same as forward Maikon Leite (5/1). Others might be rested as well. Millonarios have rested their regulars on Sunday, so they should have all the players fit to play. The high altitude from Bogota (2600 meters above sea level) should also give them a big advantage, and I expect to see a much more different match from the first leg. If they play well, Millonarios might even qualify to the next round, but it will be tough... however, a home win should come in much easier. Small stakes, because odds already dropped a lot. GL!
Millonarios (-0.5 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Second leg of Copa Sudamericana eight-finals will take place this week, and there should be some very interesting matches. First stop will be in Colombia, where Millonarios will try to take revenge on Palmeiras for the 1-3 loss in the first leg. I did mention some squad problems for the Brazilians in the first leg, and pretty much nothing has changed since then. They are still deeply involved in the relegation battle, and with a lot of tired players, they will again have to rest several pairs of legs. For example, it is almost certain that striker Barcos (23/11), defender Mauricio Ramos (20/0) and midfielder Marcos Assuncao (15/2) won't take part in this match, as they didn't make the trip to Colombia. Furthermore, midfielders Joao Vitor (17/0) and Jorge Valdivia (14/0) are still injured, same as forward Maikon Leite (5/1). Others might be rested as well. Millonarios have rested their regulars on Sunday, so they should have all the players fit to play. The high altitude from Bogota (2600 meters above sea level) should also give them a big advantage, and I expect to see a much more different match from the first leg. If they play well, Millonarios might even qualify to the next round, but it will be tough... however, a home win should come in much easier. Small stakes, because odds already dropped a lot. GL!
Millonarios (-0.5 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Oct 3, 2012
Palmeiras - Millonarios
Copa Sudamericana 2012
For Palmeiras, this match in Copa Sudamericana comes at the worst time possible. With their local league entering it's final stages, they are knee deep in the fight to avoid relegation. With the last 4 teams in the standings relegating directly, Palmeiras find themselves currently on the 18th place, 3 points behind the safe places. And with the very important match against Sao Paulo coming up this weekend, the coach is obviously prioritizing the league. Therefore, he will use a mixed squad for this clash with Millonarios, with several key players already confirmed to be out: Barcos (20/9) will be with the national team, while Valdivia, Correa, Thiago Heleno and Maikon Leite will be rested. And that's just for the moment, as others might be rested as well. And I seriously doubt their motivation in this competition, with their current domestic situation. Millonarios is a good and solid team, with a great record this season, both in their league and in Sudamericana. Against a weakened Palmeiras team they have some good chances not to lose, therefore this asian line has a lot of value. GL!
Millonarios (+1 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
For Palmeiras, this match in Copa Sudamericana comes at the worst time possible. With their local league entering it's final stages, they are knee deep in the fight to avoid relegation. With the last 4 teams in the standings relegating directly, Palmeiras find themselves currently on the 18th place, 3 points behind the safe places. And with the very important match against Sao Paulo coming up this weekend, the coach is obviously prioritizing the league. Therefore, he will use a mixed squad for this clash with Millonarios, with several key players already confirmed to be out: Barcos (20/9) will be with the national team, while Valdivia, Correa, Thiago Heleno and Maikon Leite will be rested. And that's just for the moment, as others might be rested as well. And I seriously doubt their motivation in this competition, with their current domestic situation. Millonarios is a good and solid team, with a great record this season, both in their league and in Sudamericana. Against a weakened Palmeiras team they have some good chances not to lose, therefore this asian line has a lot of value. GL!
Millonarios (+1 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
Sep 27, 2012
LDU Loja - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!
Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!
Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Sep 21, 2012
Liverpool - Envigado
Copa Sudamericana 2012
I made a bet on Envigado in the first leg as well, and it was lost quite unfairly... Liverpool didn't show much throughout the game, and they managed to snatch a point in the closing minutes. They now have an away goal lead, so they have a slight advantage when it comes to the qualification, but I still wouldn't trust them. As I mentioned previously, they have changed most of their team, and also have a very short squad. So from the beginning of the season, they have used pretty much the same players, as they don't afford to make rotations. The fatigue is due to catch-up sooner or later. They had good results so far, but mainly because they played against weaker opponents, both in the league and in Sudamericana. Once they faced a stronger opponents (Defensor Sporting), they lost. Envigado might not be of the same caliber as Defensor, but they are for sure a strong and solid team. Since in their league they are not in a good position, all their gables go on this match. They come without any injury worries, and also had enough time to rest since their last game, so I expect them to put up a good challenge. It should be a close match, but I don't really see the Uruguayans snatching it. GL!
Envigado (+0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
I made a bet on Envigado in the first leg as well, and it was lost quite unfairly... Liverpool didn't show much throughout the game, and they managed to snatch a point in the closing minutes. They now have an away goal lead, so they have a slight advantage when it comes to the qualification, but I still wouldn't trust them. As I mentioned previously, they have changed most of their team, and also have a very short squad. So from the beginning of the season, they have used pretty much the same players, as they don't afford to make rotations. The fatigue is due to catch-up sooner or later. They had good results so far, but mainly because they played against weaker opponents, both in the league and in Sudamericana. Once they faced a stronger opponents (Defensor Sporting), they lost. Envigado might not be of the same caliber as Defensor, but they are for sure a strong and solid team. Since in their league they are not in a good position, all their gables go on this match. They come without any injury worries, and also had enough time to rest since their last game, so I expect them to put up a good challenge. It should be a close match, but I don't really see the Uruguayans snatching it. GL!
Envigado (+0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Sep 19, 2012
Emelec - Olimpia
Copa Libertadores 2012
This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Aug 31, 2012
Guarani - Millonarios
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Odds are just set wrong here, in my opinion. It is true that both teams are in good form, but the Colombians are looking like the more solid team. They are undefeated in the first 8 games they've played, 6 in the league and 2 in Sudamericana against Inti Gas, and in this run of good results, we can also see a 2-1 win over Once Caldas, and a 0-0 draw away at the strong Atletico Nacional. I've talked about Millonarios previously, in my preview for the match against the Peruvians, so I'll keep it short now. They have a very good and solid team, with some big names (Renteria, for example), and are looking like a team that is capable of going a long way. Guarani is also undefeated in the local league, but they did lose a game this season: a shocking 0-1 home loss against the Bolivians from Oriente Petrolero. So really, I can't trust a team like this too much, regardless of their recent form. They did manage some results against the big teams, beating Cerro Porteno and Nacional as visitors, and drawing away at Libertad, but pretty much all these teams are in a small crisis. International competitions are something more than the local leagues, and I doubt Millonarios will lose, as they should be the better team. GL!
Millonarios (+0.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-4, WON
Odds are just set wrong here, in my opinion. It is true that both teams are in good form, but the Colombians are looking like the more solid team. They are undefeated in the first 8 games they've played, 6 in the league and 2 in Sudamericana against Inti Gas, and in this run of good results, we can also see a 2-1 win over Once Caldas, and a 0-0 draw away at the strong Atletico Nacional. I've talked about Millonarios previously, in my preview for the match against the Peruvians, so I'll keep it short now. They have a very good and solid team, with some big names (Renteria, for example), and are looking like a team that is capable of going a long way. Guarani is also undefeated in the local league, but they did lose a game this season: a shocking 0-1 home loss against the Bolivians from Oriente Petrolero. So really, I can't trust a team like this too much, regardless of their recent form. They did manage some results against the big teams, beating Cerro Porteno and Nacional as visitors, and drawing away at Libertad, but pretty much all these teams are in a small crisis. International competitions are something more than the local leagues, and I doubt Millonarios will lose, as they should be the better team. GL!
Millonarios (+0.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-4, WON
Deportivo Quito - Aurora
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.
Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.
Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 29, 2012
Envigado - Liverpool
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Liverpool made a couple of good match against Universitario Sucre, despite having quite a new-formed team, with lots of new faces and very few of their team from last season. They also managed to win in Bolivia, at high altitude, but the main reason for that was Universitario's weakness. They have also changed almost their entire team, with only two players remaining from last season, and about 10 new faces... so it was like taking some random football players, making them play in an international competition. Tonight, Liverpool will meet a much more solid team, so they won't be having an easy time for sure. The only problem might be Envigado's recent form, which has been far from good. They have lost 4 of their 5 matches played in their local championship, and it can't be a good sign when you are losing at home against a team like Deportivo Pasto. However, in Copa Sudamericana they have been doing fine, knocking out Union Comercio from Peru, with a 2-0 home win. It should be more difficult today, but this is the first match where we can see Liverpool's true face (they have postponed their league match from the weekend). The altitude should also go in the home team's favor, and in the end, the three points should remain in Colombia. GL!
Envigado (-0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Aug 16, 2012
Envigado - Union Comercio
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Don't have as much confidence in this bet as I had yesterday with Millonarios, but it should still be a solid bet. The Peruvian teams are near the bottom of the standings when we talk about South American club football, and they usually struggle even when it comes to playing against Ecuadorian or Paraguayan teams. And even though from time to time, the big guns (Universitario, Alianza Lima, etc) manage to get some results, the smaller teams usually fail miserably. And this should be the case with Union Comercio. They won promotion to the 2011 Primera Division for the first time in their short history, and even though they managed a very good campaign, I still rate them as a small team. And this was visible in the first leg as well... while Envigado isn't a great team even by Colombian standards, they managed to keep a 0-0 draw in Peru, in a pretty dull affair. And while Comercio are poor travelers in Peru (so I expect an even lower level outside of the country), Envigado is usually a strong home team in Colombia, losing only 1 match in the last 8 played at home in the league. Don't expect too much entertainment, but expect the home team to win and qualify. Small stakes only. GL!
Envigado (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Aug 15, 2012
Millonarios - Inti Gas
Copa Sudamericana 2012
A 0-0 in the first leg leaves the door for the qualification wide open, but if we look at this match realistically, we should only see one winner. Millonarios of Colombia have been in red hot form lately, winning all 3 matches from their league, and not receiving a goal in the 4 games that they have played (including the first leg with Inti Gas). They have a very good team, with big names like Wason Renteria, and after this great start of the new season, they really have high hopes. In the first match, played in Ayacucho, Millonarios have been pretty much in control of the game, underlining the quality gap between them and Inti Gas, and the man of the match was the Peruvian goalkeeper, who was able to keep the match scoreless. For the Peruvian team, there was only one scoring chance, as they were struggling throughout most of the game. So now, Inti Gas really has an impossible mission, as they need to take something out of this game, and with their away form in the local league (2-3-10), I doubt they will have much celebration. Home factor and a clear advantage in quality makes Millonarios huge favorites for this game, and they should be winning it quite easily. GL!
Millonarios (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Nacional - Deportes Iquique
Copa Sudamericana 2012
After losing the first leg with 0-2 in Chile, Nacional now have to repeat the same score in order to push the game into extra-time, or to win by at least 3 goals to qualify directly. And it will be a tough job, as Iquique aren't exactly pushovers, and Nacional haven't accomplished a feat like that (qualifying after losing the first leg as visitors) for over 11 years. Still, they will give it their best, and that is why tonight we will see a much more offensive formation than 2 weeks ago. Coach Diaz is expected to field a 4-3-3 formation, with Sanchez, Medina and Bueno up front, trying to press from the first minute, and score rapidly to increase their chances. And they have some chances to pull an amazing come-back, as Iquique's performances (especially in away games) aren't great. In this year's Clausura, they have received 11 goals in the 6 games played, including two away trashings: 0-5 at Rangers Talca, and a 1-4 at Huachipato. This contrasts greatly with their Apertura performance, when they were the best away team in the league, finishing the tournament undefeated. The atmosphere in Montevideo should also be hellish, and it will push Nacional from behind. Once again, I have to choose between the handicap and the over, and I'm going for the handicap, as I;m expecting Nacional to have possession and dominate the match. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
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