Emelec - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Despite what the table is showing, with 7 places and 8 points separating them, this surely won’t be a walk in the park for Emelec. Their packed schedule is bound to catch up with them sooner rather than later, and there are already complaints about fatigue, after a tough match with Leon and a very long voyage to and from Mexico. So I’m quite sure that there will be some players who will be rested, because they won’t be able to give their 100% anyway. LDU Quito are still in reconstruction, so it was expected that they would struggle this season as well. However, they look quite solid defensive-wise, and they’ve only conceded 2 goals in 4 visits. And there will definitely be some extra-motivation for them in this derby, so I really don’t see the hosts going for an easy win. Emelec only won 3 of their last 8 games with LDU, and none of those victories was by more than a goal’s margin, and I don’t see that changing here. I’m eyeing a draw here, but it’s nice to have some insurance in case of a narrow Emelec win. GL!

LDU (+0.75 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10
Result: 3-0, LOST

U Catolica - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!

Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST

Sport Huancayo - Emelec

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

Two high flying teams will be facing off tonight in Peru, as Sport Huancayo will be hosting Emelec. High-flying both in terms of results and style of play. Huancayo are on 5th place, with a very solid home record, where they also bolster the 3rd best attack of the league, with 22 goals scored in 13 matches. However, their defensive line is far from stable, as they also have the 3rd worst defense when it come to home games (as well as the 3rd worst defense overall). They have a nice advantage in most of their local games, as the city of Huancayo is situated at over 3000 meters of altitude, but Emelec shouldn't be too affected by this factor, being a team that plays more than half of their local league games in Quito. They've started the first tournament of the season by blitzing through their opponents, and despite a glimpse in form later on, they've held on and managed to qualify for the final. They've started in the same fashion the second round, with 4 consecutive wins (before being defeated by Deportivo Quito), and their style of play is still encouraging. The line is low, and both teams have a solid offensive potential, so I'm even going to increase my stakes a bit for this one. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.99, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Emelec - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

El Clasico del Astillero has been previously postponed, due to a conflict of fixtures with Copa Libertadores, but now it's finally the time to see it happen. Unfortunately, it catches Barcelona in one of the worst moments possible, as they are being plagued by injuries. Besides the four players that will definitely miss the game: defender Saucedo (8/0), defender Valarezo (2/0), midfielder Michael Jackson Quinonez (3/0) and forward Arroyo (8/1), there are also lots of uncertainties when it comes to a few other players. So it is that defender Nazareno (5/0), midfielder Matamoros (3/1), defender Paredes (5/0) and midfielder Oyola (9/0) are all doubtful, and I seriously doubt that they will all be fit for the match. So that will probably leave Barcelona with at least 5 absences, out of which 3 are pretty much key players. Add this to their already poor form this season (they've lost 4 out of the 6 away games that they've played), so they really have a handful. Emelec has just a couple of absences, but nothing too serious, and they should all be boosted up by Mondaini's return. They have been in fantastic form so far this season, winning 9 out of 10, and they definitely have the first chance against an almost depleted Barcelona side. GL!

Emelec (-0.5 AH) @ 1.70, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

LDU Loja - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Strange odds for this match. Loja are an average team, with average performances so far: just 2 wins in 8 games, and a 1-2-1 record at home. Also, they are without a win in their last 4 matches, and besides LDU Quito, they had an easy schedule, and they couldn't make it count: lost at home against newly promoted U Catolica, drew at winless Cuenca, and they also lost at El Nacional, thus ending their run of 6 straight defeats. Meanwhile, Emelec seem to be from a totally different galaxy. They have 7 straight wins, 16-3 goal difference, and are obviously topping the table with a whooping 6 points advantage, despite having a match less than second placed LDU Quito. So the current odds are out of place, especially if we think that several bookmakers had set Loja as slight favorites when the market opened. Regarding the absences, Emelec will miss only forward Pablo Zeballos (3/1). Otherwise, reports are giving out a full-strength team for Emelec, without resting key players ahead of their Libertadores match. Meanwhile, Liga de Loja will have two absences: defender Cumbicus (4/0) and forward Armando Wila (5/1). I know that Emelec won't be able to keep this run of form forever, but with these odds, it would be a shame not to try it. GL!

Emelec DNB @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Emelec - Manta

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Emelec is definitely the best team in Ecuador at the moment, and they seem to have come from another planet. They employ an offensive style of play, taking a lot of balls forward, and that usually pays of, as they have managed to score 15 goals in 6 games (best attack in the league, even though they have a match postponed). Even in their last match, despite appearing to have struggled, winning 1-0 in the last seconds of the game, they dominated throughout the match, and missed several chances before the late goal. And even though they never needed a confidence boost, they got one. Manta have been surprising so far, but they should thank the home advantage for that (before this match, they have the best home record). But they seem like a totally different team when it comes to traveling, and they are still to win a match away from home, having lost at LDU Quito and U Catolica, after drawing at Barcelona. They've had some tough matches, that's true, but it won't get any easier with Emelec, and I expect a comfortable win for the hosts. GL!

Emelec (-1 AH) @ 1.74, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Emelec - Deportes Iquique

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Emelec were enjoying a perfect start of the season: victories on the line in the local league, and a 1-0 win against Velez for their Libertadores debut. Now, even though things are still going like clockwork in the league, they are facing some tough times in the continental cup, as they come from 2 straight defeats. And if against Penarol there isn't too much to say (despite them not making a bad game), the 0-2 loss at Iquique came as a shocker. That's why I think the revenge factor should be primordial in this game. Emelec is pretty much a different team when they are playing at home, and as proof we have the aforementioned win against Argentinian giants, Velez Sarsfield. They've also won as visitors against LDU Quito, while resting several regulars, and even though it was a match in the league, I would rate LDU as better team than Iquique at any time. They've also had a week's rest, postponing their game against Barcelona, and the same can not be said about the Chileans. They played during a weekend, losing against Huachipato, taking their domestic tally to 3 straight defeats. They are mostly and average team, for Chilean standards, and the 0-3 loss at Velez says a lot, as they were never a contest. I would expect a similar scenario now in Ecuador, and I also expect the line to drop even more. GL!

Emelec (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST

Penarol - Emelec

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Both teams started the group stage with a win: Penarol won as visitors against Iquique, while Emelec managed a high-profile victory at home against Velez Sarsfield. So there is a lot at stake in this match, and the team that will win could top the group alone, and take a nice advantage when it comes to qualification. So for sure, both teams will be fired-up tonight. Penarol are yet to start their domestic campaign, but they are coming after a good away win, so morale should be at the top. With few changes compared to last year, they maintained their solid base, and keep playing pretty much the same way. That mean an offensive and pleasant style, which always puts a lot of pressure on their opponents. Emelec, on the other hand, has form to their advantage, as they have managed to win all their official games in 2013, including the aforementioned clash with Velez, and their latest match against LDU Quito, as visitors, also resting a few regulars. They are really looking unstoppable at the moment, and they are also showing some very pleasing performances. They press a lot on offense, and they can launch some deadly counter-attacks at any time. Hard to pick a winner under these circumstances, but I'm sure we'll be seeing some goals here. The line seems lower than what I expected, so I'm going for a bet on goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Emelec - Velez

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Main reason for this bet is the very low line, which I believe it could well be reached by half-time. Emelec were amazing so far in their league, as they won all 3 matches, with an awesome 10-1 goal difference. This says a lot about their potential and about their offensive style of play. Of course, they are probably going to take a more careful approach tonight, as going all-in against Velez might well be suicidal, but the core is set, and they should try an go for a win. And they have a good record in this competition, and we can remember some of their matches from last year, especially the thrilling 3-2 win against Flamengo in Guayaquil, where Emelec came from behind twice. Velez is also a team that usually prefers to attack, and I'm confident they'll play the same today as well. But their defense should be the problem here, since they have barely started their national championship, while in the preparation matches they got a lot of head-aches from the defense, as they received 1 goal from Liverpool Montevideo and Penarol, and 4 goals from Cerro Porteno. They can be deadly while attacking, but at the same time they can suffer a lot at the back. And Emelec, playing close to their full potential, might just as well take advantage of that. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

U Catolica - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

The first round of the Ecuadorian Serie A has passed, and hopefully, now we have a pretty clear image of the teams. Newly-promoted U Catolica made a decent performance, despite losing to LDU 1-2. They might have gotten something more from that match, as LDU was fielding several reserve players, but it wasn't to be. Even so, they showed some nice football, with plenty of offensive moves, and they will just need to work on their finishing skills. Emelec made a perfect start of the season, beating Macara by 3-0, showing good football and offensive efficiency. And they got us used to that style of play, and as they are usually a team that tries to score one more than their opponents. The line-up shouldn't change for tonight, and they are of course slight favorites in this match, even though Catolica for sure won't roll over. If both teams keep the same style of play as in the first round, this bet should be a lock. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 0-4, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

During midweek, Emelec lost all chances to qualify for the final and challenge Barcelona for the title, so today they will be resting several of their regular players, in order to keep them safe and fit for the 2nd place play-off, to be played next week.From the reports, it looks like at least 6 regulars will be out, and their places will be filled by very little used players. Cuenca went through some financial issues earlier this week, but right now everything seems to have been taken care of, so they are ready to face Emelec. And they also have something to play for today. In order to qualify for a continental competition, they will need to be among the top 5 in the aggregate standings (4th and 5th will dispute a play-off), and they can only do that by winning today, as they are 2 points behind Loja, who have a very tough match against Independiente. So they can't afford not to win this match, and since Emelec will present a much weaker team than usual, this should go well as a home win (with an insurance in case of a draw). GL!

Cuenca DNB @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON

Deportivo Quito - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

I would have expected some closer odds for this match, and no way I could have seen Deportivo as the favorites. Therefore, we should have some slight value here. Just one round left in the Ecuadorian Serie A (plus this match, which has been postponed), and everything looks pretty clear. Emelec needs a miracle to play the final: they need to win both games left, while Barcelona has to lose at home against an already-relegated Olmedo, so their chances are close to zero. However, all the players in the team have said that they will find up until the end, and they'll try to take any chances they have. Deportivo Quito had a horrendous campaign, winning just 5 matches and scoring 12 goals in 20 performances. They are safe from relegation now, so they don't really have any other objectives left, only to play and complete the schedule. At first, the coach said he will be using some youngsters and less-used players, but then he changed his mind as said he'll use the best players available. Lots of uncertainties there, but if the second story is true, he'll be using the same team that was trashed 1-4 by Manta last weekend. Also, they had some awful recent performances against big guns Barcelona (lost 0-2 at home) and rivals LDU Quito (lost 0-3 away), so with Emelec being the better team and still fighting for something, I don't see anything close to a home win here. GL!

Emelec DNB @ 1.90, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Emelec - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2012

This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Emelec - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Big match in Ecuador tonight. Besides being a Clasico of Ecuador, it is also a match that could decide who takes it's place in the final, as both teams are tied on second place with 31 points, 1 point behind surprising leaders LDU Loja. And both are in good form coming into this match, and they should also be fit, as the league had a 2 weeks-break. Form-wise, Barcelona recovered after a very poor run of form, when they played twice against LDU Quito, twice against Deportivo Quito and one against Emelec, failing to win any of those matches. And those are the matches that count, because even though they recovered their form, they did so against teams like Macara, Manta or Olmedo. Meanwhile, Emelec comes into this game from a 3-0 spanking of LDU Quito, so they proved they can play well against the big teams, and they also look like a much more solid team than Barcelona. Also, today's visitors will have a host of absences: midfielders Oyola (4/1) and Amaya (8/1), laterals Ibarra (2/0) and Cruz (6/0), and forwards Michael Jackson (11/3). Some of them are quite important players for Barcelona, so I'll have to give the edge to Emelec. GL!

Emelec (-0.25 AH) @ 1.95, 4/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Tecnico Universitario - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Hard times for Emelec. They had a long and exhausting season, and even after their knock-out from Copa Libertadores, they still can not find a breath, as they also had some postponed matches to take care of them. So a lot of players are feeling really tired, and this also lead to some injuries: defender Carlos Quinonez (3 appearances) and forward Mondaini (13/2 goals). But the problems are even bigger, as Emelec also has a lot of players suspended: defender Bagui (12), midfielder Pedro Quinonez (13) and offensive midfielder Valencia (12/5). So that makes 4 key players that won't be able to play tonight, and a lot of tiredness for the rest of the regulars, and Tecnico Universitario might be able to take advantage of this situation. They are second from bottom, so they need points as air, and even though their performances are usually poor, at home they can keep some close results (made a draw with LDU, and one with Barcelona, 2-3 months ago). They don't have important absences, and if they can keep their focus and play a smart game, they might be able to steal some points from a decimated Emelec. GL!

Tecnico U (+0.25 AH) @ 1.86, 3/10

Result: 2-3, LOST

Olimpia - Emelec

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Things are simple here: whoever wins, qualifies (a little plus for Olimpia, as they could also qualify with only a draw, provided Flamengo don't win their match). The hard part is to choose the correct bet, as I was oscilating between the handicap on Olimpia and the over. And I finally decided to go on the over, as both teams must go out in attack in order to win the match, and Olimpia's defense can make things interesting if they don't up their game. So, two offensive formations are expected, and since both teams have plenty of offensive power but also some lackluster defenses, goals are of course expected. Olimpia are the big favorites here, of course, and they are fully motivated to win this match, since they rested a lot of regulars in the league, so as to have them fit for this match. Once again, there will be a lot of expectations from Marin, Orteman, Caballero, Zeballos and Bianuchi. On the Ecuadorian side, De Jesus and Lucho Figueroa will be assigned with scoring the goals, and with Lucho's great experience and form (scored 2 last week against Flamengo), he is the man to watch. Winner takes it all here, so let's hope we'll also take some goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.82, 5/10

Result: 2-3, WON

Emelec - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Flamengo received an unexpected gift from Lanus yesterday, as the Argentinians trashed Olimpia by 6-0, leaving the qualification gates wide open for the Brazilians. If they win today, they will leapfrog Olimpia into second place, and everything will be in their hands in the last round. With no altitude in Guayaquil, Flamengo shouldn't have any extra-problems, despite a lot of rain falling in the last days, and also today's forecast isn't the best. But even so, quality should prevail, especially since there is enough motivation in the Brazilian camp. Emelec is in a very difficult position, as if they want to qualify from this group, they need to win this match, and also win next week in Paraguay against Olimpia, so this is pretty much mission impossible for them. And they don't usually do too good when they have to play against better opposition, losing all 3 of their matches against Lanus and Flamengo so far, including a 0-2 defeat at home with the Argentinians. Flamengo has all their weapons available, and we will see Ronaldinho and Wagner Love commanding the offense, with Bottinelli in the midfield line. The win is the only option available for Flamengo, and with quality also on their side, only by accident could they lose the points tonight. The handicap also covers us a bit in case of a shock-draw, so this should be a nice bet, even though the odds went down a bit. GL!

Flamengo (-0.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10

Result: 3-2, LOST

Flamengo - Emelec

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Opening odds were nothing special for me, as the handicap line was set at 1.25, far from being appealing. But odds moved a lot lately, probably because some absences in the Brazilian camp, moving the -1 line to a decent price, making a bet worthwhile. Let's talk about Emelec for a moment: as I've said before in previous analisis, Emelec isn't the same team as last year. Then they had a good team, but the coach's style of playing wasn't really suiting the players. A change of coach brought better results, but they made some changes during the winter break, although now of the new players have impressed me so far (although they have Lucho Figueroa, with lots of European experience). They made a good start this season, although with some emotions (came from 0-2 to 3-2 against lowly Macara), but lately they seem to be in a downtrend, drawing 0-0 at Manta and losing the clasico with LDU, 0-2. Flamengo drew 1-1 at Lanus in their debut; but for this match they will have a few absences: the goalkeeper Felipe, and a few midfielders: Renato Abreu, Willians and Airton. With all of these, I still see the Brazilians as favorites to win this game, as the quality is still on their side, despite the absences. Bottinelli and Ronaldinho should lead the midfield line well, and all the balls that reach the strikers are potentially dangerous, as the strikers will be the very experienced Wagner Love and Deivid. I honestly don't expect Emelec to take something from this match, so it will be up to the Brazilians to beat the handicap. GL!

Flamengo (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Emelec - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Last season, betting on over on the matches between these two teams was highly profitable, and even though the ultra-offensive Carrasco is no longer a coach at Emelec, this bet is still good today, especially with the slightly lower line. Both teams have solid squads, and both have kicked-off their divisions with a win. Emelec made a solid match to take the 3 points from a tough away game, while Olimpia made a spectacular match with the newly-promoted Carapegua. And here is the main point of this bet. Olimpia looked very good offensively, scoring 3 goals and also missing a penalty kick that had to be taken twice, but also showed some problems in defense. And since just a little time passed from that match, and the same system/players are expected to face Emelec, I believe that both teams should score with ease here, especially since it's a must-win match for both of them, being hard to hope for a qualification in a group with Lanus and Flamengo. Bottom line is that both teams have good offensive players, while the defenses still have a lot to improve, so this will be a huge surprise if we won't see at least 3 goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.95, 5/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Olmedo - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Emelec, last year's finalists, are set as underdogs for this clash with Olmedo. Interesting situation, and very few reasons for this move... It's true that sometimes Olmedo are a tough nut to crack, especially when playing on their home turf, but seriously, the odds couldn't have been more wrong. Emelec kept the majority of their players from last year, trying to further build on an already solid team, so I hope we can expect some consistency from them. Only 2 new signings will debut today: the forwards Mondaini and Marlon de Jesus, coming from Chivas and Maccabi Haifa, so for sure they are expected to provide a boost for the team. Olmedo has changed a big part of their team, now having to deal with a mixture of young players and some experienced ones, but I doubt that if they have the winning formula it will work right from the start. Higher stakes for this one, as I see value, actually expecting a DNB line, or perhaps even Emelec to be slight favorites. GL!

Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 4/10

Result: 0-2, WON