Flamengo - Lanus

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Flamengo had everything in their hands last week. Olimpia got trashed by Lanus, 6-0, so all Flamengo had to do was to win their match in Ecuador and that would have made them big favorites for qualification. And everything was going according to plan, with the Brazilians leading 2-1 until the 83rd minute, when Emelec suddenly woke up and turned the match around to win 3-2, jumping back into the qualification race. So things are looking quite bad for Flamengo, who have only one scenario tonight: they must win, and hope the other match finishes as a draw. And even thought it may seem as a lot to wish, it's not impossible, as both Olimpia and Emelec would want to win (so a draw is of course on the cards), while Lanus is already assured of winning this group. An offensive formation is expected for the Brazilians, with Ronaldinho, Deivid and Wagner Love set to command the attack. Motivation should be high for them, as they are playing their qualification, and matches against Argentinian opposition are always regarded high by the Brazilians. Lanus comes here with doubtful motivation, so normally this should go as a home win. GL!

Flamengo (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Emelec - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Flamengo received an unexpected gift from Lanus yesterday, as the Argentinians trashed Olimpia by 6-0, leaving the qualification gates wide open for the Brazilians. If they win today, they will leapfrog Olimpia into second place, and everything will be in their hands in the last round. With no altitude in Guayaquil, Flamengo shouldn't have any extra-problems, despite a lot of rain falling in the last days, and also today's forecast isn't the best. But even so, quality should prevail, especially since there is enough motivation in the Brazilian camp. Emelec is in a very difficult position, as if they want to qualify from this group, they need to win this match, and also win next week in Paraguay against Olimpia, so this is pretty much mission impossible for them. And they don't usually do too good when they have to play against better opposition, losing all 3 of their matches against Lanus and Flamengo so far, including a 0-2 defeat at home with the Argentinians. Flamengo has all their weapons available, and we will see Ronaldinho and Wagner Love commanding the offense, with Bottinelli in the midfield line. The win is the only option available for Flamengo, and with quality also on their side, only by accident could they lose the points tonight. The handicap also covers us a bit in case of a shock-draw, so this should be a nice bet, even though the odds went down a bit. GL!

Flamengo (-0.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10

Result: 3-2, LOST

Olimpia - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Very low line, in my opinion, especially after seeing last week's match. After that match (Flamengo had a 3-0 lead, but let it slip in the last 15 minutes, ending in a 3-3 draw), I can say for sure that Flamengo will come to Paraguay for revenge. And with Olimpia being a team that won't give up that easily, especially at home, I expecting several goals once again. Both teams are in with good chances to qualify, but a loss today could complicate things, and I'm sure nobody wants that. That's why I'm expecting an offensive game from both teams, trying to take advantage of the defensive weaknesses that both teams presented. And this thing will surely be helped by the fact that both Olimpia and Flamengo have the players with which to do damage. For example, Olimpia has Orteman, Marin, Caballero and Zeballos, players that could strike deadly at any time, especially on counters and from set pieces. On the other side, the Brazilians have Ronaldinho, Wagner Love, Deivid and Bottinelli, players who for sure don't need any presentation. So, with this being said, and with the line set as low as 2.25, there is definitely a bit of value in this bet. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 5/10

Result: 3-2, WON

Flamengo - Emelec

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Opening odds were nothing special for me, as the handicap line was set at 1.25, far from being appealing. But odds moved a lot lately, probably because some absences in the Brazilian camp, moving the -1 line to a decent price, making a bet worthwhile. Let's talk about Emelec for a moment: as I've said before in previous analisis, Emelec isn't the same team as last year. Then they had a good team, but the coach's style of playing wasn't really suiting the players. A change of coach brought better results, but they made some changes during the winter break, although now of the new players have impressed me so far (although they have Lucho Figueroa, with lots of European experience). They made a good start this season, although with some emotions (came from 0-2 to 3-2 against lowly Macara), but lately they seem to be in a downtrend, drawing 0-0 at Manta and losing the clasico with LDU, 0-2. Flamengo drew 1-1 at Lanus in their debut; but for this match they will have a few absences: the goalkeeper Felipe, and a few midfielders: Renato Abreu, Willians and Airton. With all of these, I still see the Brazilians as favorites to win this game, as the quality is still on their side, despite the absences. Bottinelli and Ronaldinho should lead the midfield line well, and all the balls that reach the strikers are potentially dangerous, as the strikers will be the very experienced Wagner Love and Deivid. I honestly don't expect Emelec to take something from this match, so it will be up to the Brazilians to beat the handicap. GL!

Flamengo (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Real Potosi - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores 2012

I'm expecting quite a few goals tonight in Potosi. Flamengo is a team more than capable of scoring one, maybe even more goals, but are also more than capable of conceding. As a proof, in the last season of the Brazilian Serie A they had the second best attack, with 59 goals scored, but also one of the worst defense from the top 10 teams. So, if they can score so easily against other Brazilian teams, I don't see why they couldn't do it against a Bolivian team, that is weaker in defense. Real Potosi will surely try to take advantage from the high altitude, and will try to punish the Brazilian team in order for them to stand a chance in the return leg. They usually play offensive football, and today we shouldn't see a change, as a draw leaves them with practically no chance to qualify. Flamengo have prepared very well for this match, sending their full squad to Bolivia since more than a week, although they stayed in Sucre, where there is no altitude, so they should feel some heavy legs anyway. Ronaldinho and Deivid are expected to start as the main offensive weapons of the Brazilians, so the goals should come. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.89, 5/10

Result: 2-1, WON