FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Final
My first thoughts on this final (several weeks ago, because I was 99% sure this would be the match-up) were to skip this game. Chelsea were on a bad run of form, and I just couldn't trust them... especially after Benitez took charge. But after seeing the semi-final matches, I pretty much realized that the quality gap between the European teams and the south/central American ones is just too big. Chelsea gave Monterrey no chances, and with some extra-concentration, they could have recorded an even bigger score. Hazard was particularly impressive, as he dribbled the hearts out of Monterrey's players. Now I know there is a difference between Mexican and Brazilian teams, but if Chelsea keeps the same level of performance, they should have anything to worry about. Corinthians has a solid team, and they have Guerrero up-front, but I wasn't at all impressed with them against Al Ahly. They just seemed lazy, and they actually made the Egyptians look better than they actually are. With that performance they can't expect to take something from Chelsea, and since the odds are a bit better than I expected, I'm taking this bet. GL!
Chelsea (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012. Show all posts
Dec 16, 2012
Al Ahly - Monterrey
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Third-place play-off
Won't go on too much about this match, since I've already spoken about both these teams. Monterrey showed against Ulsan that they like to play possession football, with an emphasis on attacking moves, and they've done it with success. They also showed some glimpses of that against Chelsea, but the English-giants had by far more quality, so they didn't give the Mexicans any chances. Meanwhile, Al Ahly showed terrible defending skills against Hiroshima, and they have to thank the J-League team for squandering around 5-6 clear-cut chances. They did show some improvements against Corinthians, but the Brazilians didn't suffocate them with pressure either, as they were content with just winning by the margin and saving their energies for the final clash against Chelsea. In this match, the third place will be at stake, and I'm quite sure that both teams want it. Monterrey has the quality and skill advantage, and are rightfully favorites, even though I was expecting some lower odds for them (which means we have some value here). Won't be an easy task, but without some serious improvements for the Egyptians, I don't see them taking anything from this game. GL!
Monterrey (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Won't go on too much about this match, since I've already spoken about both these teams. Monterrey showed against Ulsan that they like to play possession football, with an emphasis on attacking moves, and they've done it with success. They also showed some glimpses of that against Chelsea, but the English-giants had by far more quality, so they didn't give the Mexicans any chances. Meanwhile, Al Ahly showed terrible defending skills against Hiroshima, and they have to thank the J-League team for squandering around 5-6 clear-cut chances. They did show some improvements against Corinthians, but the Brazilians didn't suffocate them with pressure either, as they were content with just winning by the margin and saving their energies for the final clash against Chelsea. In this match, the third place will be at stake, and I'm quite sure that both teams want it. Monterrey has the quality and skill advantage, and are rightfully favorites, even though I was expecting some lower odds for them (which means we have some value here). Won't be an easy task, but without some serious improvements for the Egyptians, I don't see them taking anything from this game. GL!
Monterrey (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 5/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Dec 12, 2012
Al Ahly - Corinthians
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Semi-final
Copa Libertadores winners, Corinthians, are entering the competition in the semi-finals, and will play against African champions Al Ahly. From what I've seen so far, the Egyptians are rather poor, especially in defense. They were completely outrun by Hiroshima, several time, as the Japanese had at least 5-6 clear scoring chances, either alone with the keeper or alone with the empty net. And they missed all of them, so only their lack of efficiency allowed Al Ahly to progress. And in addition to a terrible defense, they didn't show much in offense either (although attack was not their objective). They played on counters, and they had a lot of success doing it, scoring 2 goals from 2 chances. Against Corinthians, we should see something else. The Brazilians are much more solid at the back, so I don't think they will be so easy to beat. And in attack, they have a lot quality, with top class players like Paolo Guerrero, and a very solid and well built team. And against a team that showed so many defensive holes, I think they should score at least a couple of goals. Odds dropped a lot since the market opened, but it's still worth taking this bet. GL!
Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 0-1, VOID
Copa Libertadores winners, Corinthians, are entering the competition in the semi-finals, and will play against African champions Al Ahly. From what I've seen so far, the Egyptians are rather poor, especially in defense. They were completely outrun by Hiroshima, several time, as the Japanese had at least 5-6 clear scoring chances, either alone with the keeper or alone with the empty net. And they missed all of them, so only their lack of efficiency allowed Al Ahly to progress. And in addition to a terrible defense, they didn't show much in offense either (although attack was not their objective). They played on counters, and they had a lot of success doing it, scoring 2 goals from 2 chances. Against Corinthians, we should see something else. The Brazilians are much more solid at the back, so I don't think they will be so easy to beat. And in attack, they have a lot quality, with top class players like Paolo Guerrero, and a very solid and well built team. And against a team that showed so many defensive holes, I think they should score at least a couple of goals. Odds dropped a lot since the market opened, but it's still worth taking this bet. GL!
Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 0-1, VOID
Dec 9, 2012
Ulsan - Monterrey
FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Quarter-finals
I really think we should be seeing some goals here. Both teams are usually offensive-minded and with rather shaky defenses, and this competition is usually pretty high-scoring. Let's start with Ulsan, Asian Champions League winners, with an undefeated run in the competition and with 27 goals scored in 12 matches. In the local league they have finished on 5th place, but even there, the majority of their matches ended with a minimum of 3 goals, having scored 60 games in 44 games, while also conceding 52. They might not have too many foreigners in the team, or too many star-players for that matter, but they have a solid squad, that works very well together. On the other side, we have a Monterrey side who won last seasons CONCACAF Champions League, and are on route to defend their trophy, winning all matches in their group. They do like to play offensive football, and they are usually keen on sending the ball forward. And they do have some classy players in their squad: striker Humberto Suazo (Chilean international), forward Cesar Delgado (ex-Lyon), midfielder Neri Cardozo, defender and captain Jose Maria Basanta, Ecuadorian defender Walter Ayovi and forward Aldo de Nigris. They have a lot of skilled players in their team, but it will be hard against a team as Ulsan. The winner might be tough to pick, but the goals should flow. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 1-3, WON
I really think we should be seeing some goals here. Both teams are usually offensive-minded and with rather shaky defenses, and this competition is usually pretty high-scoring. Let's start with Ulsan, Asian Champions League winners, with an undefeated run in the competition and with 27 goals scored in 12 matches. In the local league they have finished on 5th place, but even there, the majority of their matches ended with a minimum of 3 goals, having scored 60 games in 44 games, while also conceding 52. They might not have too many foreigners in the team, or too many star-players for that matter, but they have a solid squad, that works very well together. On the other side, we have a Monterrey side who won last seasons CONCACAF Champions League, and are on route to defend their trophy, winning all matches in their group. They do like to play offensive football, and they are usually keen on sending the ball forward. And they do have some classy players in their squad: striker Humberto Suazo (Chilean international), forward Cesar Delgado (ex-Lyon), midfielder Neri Cardozo, defender and captain Jose Maria Basanta, Ecuadorian defender Walter Ayovi and forward Aldo de Nigris. They have a lot of skilled players in their team, but it will be hard against a team as Ulsan. The winner might be tough to pick, but the goals should flow. GL!
over 2 goals @ 1.71, 5/10
Result: 1-3, WON
Dec 6, 2012
Tigre - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2012, Final
Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!
Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!
Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Oct 31, 2012
Gremio - Millonarios
Copa Sudamericana 2012, Quarter-finals
As Copa Sudamericana is entering it's latter stages, more and more teams are starting to take it more seriously, and one of these teams is Gremio. Besides striker Kleber, who is doubtful after suffering a minor injury in his last match, everybody else is ready to go, as a full strength Gremio is expected to take the field on Tuesday night. If in the last round we saw Millonarios facing another Brazilian team, Palmeiras, and they managed to qualify after a great comeback in the second leg, this time we'll have a different story. Palmeiras used a mixed team in the two legs, and were still the better team when they played in Brazil, winning 3-1. If Gremio uses their best players, it will be a lot harder for the Colombians, as Gremio also has a better squad than Palmeiras. Of course, Millonarios could strike on the counter attack, which is one of their favorite tactics when playing away from home. With both teams expected to use their best squads, and with a place in the semi-final at stake, I think this should be a nice clash to watch, and the goals should come. Gremio is of course the favorite here, but the handicap line is too big if we think that Millonarios can also score. Therefore, the over bet seems like a much better choice. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
As Copa Sudamericana is entering it's latter stages, more and more teams are starting to take it more seriously, and one of these teams is Gremio. Besides striker Kleber, who is doubtful after suffering a minor injury in his last match, everybody else is ready to go, as a full strength Gremio is expected to take the field on Tuesday night. If in the last round we saw Millonarios facing another Brazilian team, Palmeiras, and they managed to qualify after a great comeback in the second leg, this time we'll have a different story. Palmeiras used a mixed team in the two legs, and were still the better team when they played in Brazil, winning 3-1. If Gremio uses their best players, it will be a lot harder for the Colombians, as Gremio also has a better squad than Palmeiras. Of course, Millonarios could strike on the counter attack, which is one of their favorite tactics when playing away from home. With both teams expected to use their best squads, and with a place in the semi-final at stake, I think this should be a nice clash to watch, and the goals should come. Gremio is of course the favorite here, but the handicap line is too big if we think that Millonarios can also score. Therefore, the over bet seems like a much better choice. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Oct 24, 2012
Millonarios - Palmeiras
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Second leg of Copa Sudamericana eight-finals will take place this week, and there should be some very interesting matches. First stop will be in Colombia, where Millonarios will try to take revenge on Palmeiras for the 1-3 loss in the first leg. I did mention some squad problems for the Brazilians in the first leg, and pretty much nothing has changed since then. They are still deeply involved in the relegation battle, and with a lot of tired players, they will again have to rest several pairs of legs. For example, it is almost certain that striker Barcos (23/11), defender Mauricio Ramos (20/0) and midfielder Marcos Assuncao (15/2) won't take part in this match, as they didn't make the trip to Colombia. Furthermore, midfielders Joao Vitor (17/0) and Jorge Valdivia (14/0) are still injured, same as forward Maikon Leite (5/1). Others might be rested as well. Millonarios have rested their regulars on Sunday, so they should have all the players fit to play. The high altitude from Bogota (2600 meters above sea level) should also give them a big advantage, and I expect to see a much more different match from the first leg. If they play well, Millonarios might even qualify to the next round, but it will be tough... however, a home win should come in much easier. Small stakes, because odds already dropped a lot. GL!
Millonarios (-0.5 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Second leg of Copa Sudamericana eight-finals will take place this week, and there should be some very interesting matches. First stop will be in Colombia, where Millonarios will try to take revenge on Palmeiras for the 1-3 loss in the first leg. I did mention some squad problems for the Brazilians in the first leg, and pretty much nothing has changed since then. They are still deeply involved in the relegation battle, and with a lot of tired players, they will again have to rest several pairs of legs. For example, it is almost certain that striker Barcos (23/11), defender Mauricio Ramos (20/0) and midfielder Marcos Assuncao (15/2) won't take part in this match, as they didn't make the trip to Colombia. Furthermore, midfielders Joao Vitor (17/0) and Jorge Valdivia (14/0) are still injured, same as forward Maikon Leite (5/1). Others might be rested as well. Millonarios have rested their regulars on Sunday, so they should have all the players fit to play. The high altitude from Bogota (2600 meters above sea level) should also give them a big advantage, and I expect to see a much more different match from the first leg. If they play well, Millonarios might even qualify to the next round, but it will be tough... however, a home win should come in much easier. Small stakes, because odds already dropped a lot. GL!
Millonarios (-0.5 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Oct 3, 2012
Palmeiras - Millonarios
Copa Sudamericana 2012
For Palmeiras, this match in Copa Sudamericana comes at the worst time possible. With their local league entering it's final stages, they are knee deep in the fight to avoid relegation. With the last 4 teams in the standings relegating directly, Palmeiras find themselves currently on the 18th place, 3 points behind the safe places. And with the very important match against Sao Paulo coming up this weekend, the coach is obviously prioritizing the league. Therefore, he will use a mixed squad for this clash with Millonarios, with several key players already confirmed to be out: Barcos (20/9) will be with the national team, while Valdivia, Correa, Thiago Heleno and Maikon Leite will be rested. And that's just for the moment, as others might be rested as well. And I seriously doubt their motivation in this competition, with their current domestic situation. Millonarios is a good and solid team, with a great record this season, both in their league and in Sudamericana. Against a weakened Palmeiras team they have some good chances not to lose, therefore this asian line has a lot of value. GL!
Millonarios (+1 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
For Palmeiras, this match in Copa Sudamericana comes at the worst time possible. With their local league entering it's final stages, they are knee deep in the fight to avoid relegation. With the last 4 teams in the standings relegating directly, Palmeiras find themselves currently on the 18th place, 3 points behind the safe places. And with the very important match against Sao Paulo coming up this weekend, the coach is obviously prioritizing the league. Therefore, he will use a mixed squad for this clash with Millonarios, with several key players already confirmed to be out: Barcos (20/9) will be with the national team, while Valdivia, Correa, Thiago Heleno and Maikon Leite will be rested. And that's just for the moment, as others might be rested as well. And I seriously doubt their motivation in this competition, with their current domestic situation. Millonarios is a good and solid team, with a great record this season, both in their league and in Sudamericana. Against a weakened Palmeiras team they have some good chances not to lose, therefore this asian line has a lot of value. GL!
Millonarios (+1 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10
Result: 3-1, LOST
Sep 27, 2012
LDU Loja - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!
Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!
Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
W Connection - Chivas
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
Chivas are still in a result crisis, but I think we can say that lately they've had an improvement in their game. They are now undefeated for the last 4 games, including a rebound in the Champions League (4-0 against W Connection), a local win against Club Leon, and a match against Pumas in which they were the better side, and have also missed a penalty in the 93rd minute. But nothing will matter unless they get a win today as well, as only 3 points can get them back in the qualification race (they are currently 4 points behind group leaders Xelaju). Apparently, the entire squad made the trip to Trinidad & Tobago, and since this is a crucial game for them, I'm expecting a solid squad to start. There's no questioning about the clear quality difference between these two teams' players, so Chivas are rightfully favorites. It is only to see if they can continue their good recent run and win all the points. Connection are simply a poor team, already lost 0-4 to Chivas and took just 1 point in two matches against Xelaju, conceding 5 goals (although they did score 4 themselves). Chivas should win it, they simply have to, and everything is in their favor. GL!
Chivas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Chivas are still in a result crisis, but I think we can say that lately they've had an improvement in their game. They are now undefeated for the last 4 games, including a rebound in the Champions League (4-0 against W Connection), a local win against Club Leon, and a match against Pumas in which they were the better side, and have also missed a penalty in the 93rd minute. But nothing will matter unless they get a win today as well, as only 3 points can get them back in the qualification race (they are currently 4 points behind group leaders Xelaju). Apparently, the entire squad made the trip to Trinidad & Tobago, and since this is a crucial game for them, I'm expecting a solid squad to start. There's no questioning about the clear quality difference between these two teams' players, so Chivas are rightfully favorites. It is only to see if they can continue their good recent run and win all the points. Connection are simply a poor team, already lost 0-4 to Chivas and took just 1 point in two matches against Xelaju, conceding 5 goals (although they did score 4 themselves). Chivas should win it, they simply have to, and everything is in their favor. GL!
Chivas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Santos - U de Chile
Recopa Sudamericana 2012
In the first leg, I went for goals, as I was expecting a committed performance from both teams. And I was so wrong... Santos did play well, and had several good chances to score, including a missed penalty in the first half. But the goal never came, thus the match ending 0-0. What we can take from that match is that Santos played much better, as visitors, and U de Chile showed little of the football that charmed us in the last 2 seasons. So I won't be getting my hopes up today. It is very difficult to play in Brazil, and Santos is a top class team. With all the regular and star players ready to go, I'm expecting a very good line-up for the Brazilians, as they should dominate the game. It won't be very easy, I admit that, so don't expect a trashing, but the victory should come eventually. U de Chile should still have a good offense, so it won't be a surprise if they score, but their defensive line has shown a lot of inconsistency lately: in their last 10 games in all competitions, they have only managed to win 3, all of them in the local league. And in those last 10 matches, they have indeed managed to score 17 goals, but they have also conceded 16. Even so, I won't be taking the over again, as I'm expecting Santos's force to overpower the Chileans. GL!
Santos (-0.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
In the first leg, I went for goals, as I was expecting a committed performance from both teams. And I was so wrong... Santos did play well, and had several good chances to score, including a missed penalty in the first half. But the goal never came, thus the match ending 0-0. What we can take from that match is that Santos played much better, as visitors, and U de Chile showed little of the football that charmed us in the last 2 seasons. So I won't be getting my hopes up today. It is very difficult to play in Brazil, and Santos is a top class team. With all the regular and star players ready to go, I'm expecting a very good line-up for the Brazilians, as they should dominate the game. It won't be very easy, I admit that, so don't expect a trashing, but the victory should come eventually. U de Chile should still have a good offense, so it won't be a surprise if they score, but their defensive line has shown a lot of inconsistency lately: in their last 10 games in all competitions, they have only managed to win 3, all of them in the local league. And in those last 10 matches, they have indeed managed to score 17 goals, but they have also conceded 16. Even so, I won't be taking the over again, as I'm expecting Santos's force to overpower the Chileans. GL!
Santos (-0.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Sep 21, 2012
Liverpool - Envigado
Copa Sudamericana 2012
I made a bet on Envigado in the first leg as well, and it was lost quite unfairly... Liverpool didn't show much throughout the game, and they managed to snatch a point in the closing minutes. They now have an away goal lead, so they have a slight advantage when it comes to the qualification, but I still wouldn't trust them. As I mentioned previously, they have changed most of their team, and also have a very short squad. So from the beginning of the season, they have used pretty much the same players, as they don't afford to make rotations. The fatigue is due to catch-up sooner or later. They had good results so far, but mainly because they played against weaker opponents, both in the league and in Sudamericana. Once they faced a stronger opponents (Defensor Sporting), they lost. Envigado might not be of the same caliber as Defensor, but they are for sure a strong and solid team. Since in their league they are not in a good position, all their gables go on this match. They come without any injury worries, and also had enough time to rest since their last game, so I expect them to put up a good challenge. It should be a close match, but I don't really see the Uruguayans snatching it. GL!
Envigado (+0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
I made a bet on Envigado in the first leg as well, and it was lost quite unfairly... Liverpool didn't show much throughout the game, and they managed to snatch a point in the closing minutes. They now have an away goal lead, so they have a slight advantage when it comes to the qualification, but I still wouldn't trust them. As I mentioned previously, they have changed most of their team, and also have a very short squad. So from the beginning of the season, they have used pretty much the same players, as they don't afford to make rotations. The fatigue is due to catch-up sooner or later. They had good results so far, but mainly because they played against weaker opponents, both in the league and in Sudamericana. Once they faced a stronger opponents (Defensor Sporting), they lost. Envigado might not be of the same caliber as Defensor, but they are for sure a strong and solid team. Since in their league they are not in a good position, all their gables go on this match. They come without any injury worries, and also had enough time to rest since their last game, so I expect them to put up a good challenge. It should be a close match, but I don't really see the Uruguayans snatching it. GL!
Envigado (+0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Sep 19, 2012
Emelec - Olimpia
Copa Libertadores 2012
This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Aug 31, 2012
Guarani - Millonarios
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Odds are just set wrong here, in my opinion. It is true that both teams are in good form, but the Colombians are looking like the more solid team. They are undefeated in the first 8 games they've played, 6 in the league and 2 in Sudamericana against Inti Gas, and in this run of good results, we can also see a 2-1 win over Once Caldas, and a 0-0 draw away at the strong Atletico Nacional. I've talked about Millonarios previously, in my preview for the match against the Peruvians, so I'll keep it short now. They have a very good and solid team, with some big names (Renteria, for example), and are looking like a team that is capable of going a long way. Guarani is also undefeated in the local league, but they did lose a game this season: a shocking 0-1 home loss against the Bolivians from Oriente Petrolero. So really, I can't trust a team like this too much, regardless of their recent form. They did manage some results against the big teams, beating Cerro Porteno and Nacional as visitors, and drawing away at Libertad, but pretty much all these teams are in a small crisis. International competitions are something more than the local leagues, and I doubt Millonarios will lose, as they should be the better team. GL!
Millonarios (+0.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-4, WON
Odds are just set wrong here, in my opinion. It is true that both teams are in good form, but the Colombians are looking like the more solid team. They are undefeated in the first 8 games they've played, 6 in the league and 2 in Sudamericana against Inti Gas, and in this run of good results, we can also see a 2-1 win over Once Caldas, and a 0-0 draw away at the strong Atletico Nacional. I've talked about Millonarios previously, in my preview for the match against the Peruvians, so I'll keep it short now. They have a very good and solid team, with some big names (Renteria, for example), and are looking like a team that is capable of going a long way. Guarani is also undefeated in the local league, but they did lose a game this season: a shocking 0-1 home loss against the Bolivians from Oriente Petrolero. So really, I can't trust a team like this too much, regardless of their recent form. They did manage some results against the big teams, beating Cerro Porteno and Nacional as visitors, and drawing away at Libertad, but pretty much all these teams are in a small crisis. International competitions are something more than the local leagues, and I doubt Millonarios will lose, as they should be the better team. GL!
Millonarios (+0.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-4, WON
Deportivo Quito - Aurora
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.
Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.
Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 29, 2012
Envigado - Liverpool
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Liverpool made a couple of good match against Universitario Sucre, despite having quite a new-formed team, with lots of new faces and very few of their team from last season. They also managed to win in Bolivia, at high altitude, but the main reason for that was Universitario's weakness. They have also changed almost their entire team, with only two players remaining from last season, and about 10 new faces... so it was like taking some random football players, making them play in an international competition. Tonight, Liverpool will meet a much more solid team, so they won't be having an easy time for sure. The only problem might be Envigado's recent form, which has been far from good. They have lost 4 of their 5 matches played in their local championship, and it can't be a good sign when you are losing at home against a team like Deportivo Pasto. However, in Copa Sudamericana they have been doing fine, knocking out Union Comercio from Peru, with a 2-0 home win. It should be more difficult today, but this is the first match where we can see Liverpool's true face (they have postponed their league match from the weekend). The altitude should also go in the home team's favor, and in the end, the three points should remain in Colombia. GL!
Envigado (-0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Aug 23, 2012
Alajuelense - UANL Tigres
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
Costa Rica is a tough place to go and win, even for the big teams of the continent. I wouldn't exactly call Tigres one of the big teams, and I consider that even under normal circumstances, they would have a tough time getting the 3 points from Alajuelense. I'm saying 'under normal circumstances', because apparently, the coach is favoring the local league, and since they already have 3 points in this group stage of the Champions League, they can take it easy now. Therefore, they will be fielding a reserve team tonight, with just one regular player on the pitch: midfielder Viniegra (24/1). Other than him, Tigre will be using just reserve players, including goalkeeper de Leon and defender Zamora, who have yet to make an appearance this season, plus striker Guarch who played just one match as a substitute. So I'd say it's a pretty weak line-up, and most likely they will be going there for the draw. But it will be tough for sure, as Alajuelense are no push-overs. They are the current leaders of their local league, and are a very strong home team (last year they won all home matches in the group stage, including matches against LA Galaxy, Morelia), so I expect them to take something from this match. GL!
Alajuelense DNB @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 2-2, VOID
U de Chile - Santos
Recopa Sudamericana 2012
When you see this two team playing against each other, you can only think of one thing: goals! Even though U de Chile has slightly changed compared to the last season, they are still adepts of the same style of play, which means attacking play. They always try to press and to get the ball forward, and their counter attacks are also deadly. That's why it comes as no surprise that in the local league they have the best offense, with 44 goals scored in 17 matches, 13 goals more than the team with the second best offense. And while we can not compare Chilean teams with Santos, the Brazilian defense is not brilliant either, so they might allow some goals tonight. Santos is playing usually a bit more defensively, but with their defense, that's not making a lot of difference. That why we can see they recorded overs in their last 6 matches, and in 5 of them both teams scored. The thing with them is that they have excellent individual players, who can scored from basically nothing: Neymar, Ganso, Miralles, etc. So I expect both teams to continue with their recent trends, and normally, this match should be overish, with both teams getting on the score sheet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 5/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Aug 22, 2012
Real Salt Lake - Tauro
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
While an official (or even a probable) line-up is almost impossible to find at this time for Real, we can draw a conclusion from their first group match, and from their last game on Saturday. Since they have lost 0-1 in Costa Rica three weeks ago, Real is now in a must-win situation if they want to qualify to the next stage from this group, and since the coach stated that the Champions League is a priority for them, I'm expecting him to field a strong squad tonight. Also, last weekend he rested 3 key players: midfielder Kyle Beckerman (23/4), forward Alvaro Saborio (21/14) and midfielder Will Johnson (19/2), as they all played 90 minutes with their national teams last Wednesday. Real went on to lose 1-2 against Dallas, but at least they have those three players fit for tonight's match, and this should really make their intentions clear. Tauro is a team used to play in this competition, but they don't have any performances to show off, never managing to qualify out of the group stage. There isn't too much info on them, but Real looks too strong, and with their star players on the pitch from the start, they should put the win beyond doubt. Small stakes though, as I never trust American teams too much when it comes to covering handicaps. GL!
Real (-1.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Santos Laguna - Aguila
CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage
The Mexican champions, Santos Laguna, are debuting in this year's Champions League group stage, against a team that is already in deep trouble. Aguila played a match already, and they failed miserably, being trashed 1-5 at Toronto. That should say a lot about their quality, and don't be surprised if we see a similar scoreline today. Santos wants to make a solid debut in this competition, and everybody knows that you need to take all the points on your home ground in order to qualify without many complications. That is why they will be fielding quite a strong line-up, at 90% I would say. Just two of the players from today's expected line-up can't be considered as regulars, but except for them, Santos is going strong. Another weak point for them would be the absence of their 2 top strikers: Darwin Quintero (25/11) and Oribe Peralta (22/15), who will be replaced by Candido Ramirez (2/0) and offensive midfielder Christian Suarez (26/5). This makes me lower the stakes a bit (I would have gone full stake with the two strikers on-field), but even with this line-up, they should still be a few classes better than the Salvadoreans, and I expect a win by a minimum of 2 goals. GL!
Santos Laguna (-2.25AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 5-0, WON
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