Penarol - Deportivo Anzoategui

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Since both of these teams are out of the competition already, this game is pretty much just to complete the schedule. I doubt there is anything real at stake, despite the pre-match talk about leaving the competition with honor. And Penarol are certainly showing that they couldn't care less, as not a single regular player is expected to start tonight's game. Forward Mauro Fernandez can be considered the highest profile player to take on the Venezuelans, but the rest of the team gives me no hope of a positive result. Deportivo Anzoategui aren't much of a team either, and it is still uncertain if they will be using their best available squad or a mixed one.  However, in this match without anything to play for, and against a team playing with a complete squad of reserves/youngsters, it's a bit of a stretch to give out such a big handicap. The Venezuelan team has a bad record away from home, that's true, but Penarol haven't exactly been shining either, and I don't see them winning big (maybe not winning at all). GL!

Anzoategui (+1.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Santos Laguna - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Santos (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON

Nacional - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

As you are probably well aware, last week I’ve had a very solid bet, full of confidence, against Nacional Montevideo. And unfortunately, that bet went to the crapper, after Atletico Nacional received a red card in the first minute of the game. So it would be pointless talking about that game, even though it is worth mentioning that despite having a man-down from the start, the Colombians were still able to recover from a 0-2 deficit and tie the game. Tonight, Nacional will still rest most of their regulars, as they only have 1 point in the group, and are focusing on the local league. Furthermore, from last week’s team, they will add 3 more youngsters, as 3 players are forbidden by the law to play in Uruguay. And on top of all this, their form couldn’t get much worse than this, as they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games.

Atletico will use a similar squad to last week’s one, and there should definitely be a revenge factor here, as the 2-2 in Colombia against a team of youngsters certainly doesn’t sit well with them. They also need to keep in touch with the leaders, Gremio, and their main rivals for qualification, Newell’s Old Boys. All in all, I have pretty much the same confidence as last week, and this time we also have a nice line. GL!

Atletico DNB @ 1.84, 5/10 
Result: 0-1, WON

Atletico Nacional - Nacional Montevideo

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

I have quite a lot of confidence in this bet, despite the rather big handicap line. Nacional has traveled to Colombia with a complete B-squad, as none of their regular players was included in the trip. They are fighting for the title of Clausura, and they are also in a neck-in-neck battle for the Aggregate table, so their focus is shifting towards the local league. Furthermore, they also had to go through a 13 hour-trip from Montevideo to Medellin, so a lot of fatigue is expected for them. Atletico Nacional is bound to treat this match seriously, as they still have enough changes to qualify to the next stage (3rd place with 3 points, but will play against Gremio at home). They are also in red hot form, being 8-0-2 in the league and 4-1 at home. Plus, they've also beaten Newell's Old Boys in Medellin, so they definitely mean business. The odds are bound to drop even further, but as I said, I have a lot of confidence here, and this bet is good to take up until 1.90. GL!

Atletico (-1.5 AH) @ 2.13, 5/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Cruzeiro - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Tried over-bets for a couple of times in this seasons’ Libertadores, but I failed every time. However, this time I’m even more confident than before. Apparently, U de Chile came to Brazil to attack. They can’t really rely on their defense anyway, since it’s been rather shaky and allowed a lot of spaces and goals recently, with 8 goals conceded in the last 5 matches. And that was against some rather average opponents… they could really be put under pressure by Cruzeiro’s top class forwards, as long as they don’t get lazy. U de Chile will be using Gutierrez, Rubio and Lorenzetti in attack, and they can really hurt any defense, provided they get enough balls. And with them in the first team, it’s a pretty clear sign that they came here to play, not to sit and wait in defense. Cruzeiro should get enough chances themselves, so normally we should have quite a show in this match. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.90, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Universitario - Velez Sarsfield

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

over 2 goals @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Herediano - Cruz Azul

CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage

Cruz Azul is facing this last round with a perfect score, and they are all but qualified. With a 3 points advantage over Herediano, a 3-0 in the direct match and a +3 advantage with the goal difference, only a disaster would stop Cruz Azul from qualifying. They can draw, they can even lose by a certain margin, and they would still qualify. But even so, if we look at the squad they picked for the travel to Costa Rica, we can see that they are treating this match rather seriously. It won't be their best squad, obviously (Mexican clubs rarely use all of their best players), but there are a lot of big names there, as they have chosen 7 key players to take on this match (including Julio Dominguez, Gerardo Torrado, Luis Perea and Pavone). No word yet on the official starting line-up, but I'm sure we'll see a lot of those key players, for a simple reason: there's no point in making them take the trip, if you're not going to play them. Herediano did an OK job as well, winning both matches against Valencia Leogane, but that's not something to count here. Cruz Azul beat them clearly in the home game, and even though today they don't need to win, Herediano could lose focus as well, as a miracle win is highly unlikely. GL!

Cruz Azul (-0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Cruz Azul - Herediano

CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage

Cruz Azul will finally start their Champions League campaign, after having the first match-day off, due to the new format of the competition, where groups are consisting of only 3 teams. The Mexican team are usually challengers in this competition, as during the last 5 years they have played 2 finals and one additional semifinal. There is no word on the line-up that will be used, but if we look at their history, it is to be expected for Cruz Azul to use a few reserve players, as most Mexican teams do when they are playing at home. Their group is a fairly easy one, with opposition from Costa Rica and Haiti, but they do need to get at least 4 points against Herediano (they shouldn't break a sweat against the Haitians). So I'm expecting a decent squad today, and the home win shouldn't be put under question. Herediano did well in their debut, beating Valencia by 6-1, but this will be totally different for them. They never won on Mexican grounds, regardless of the opposition and the squad used, and I really doubt they'll manage that today. The line is lower than I expected, so I think it's worth to go with the Mexicans here. GL!

Cruz Azul (-1.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Victoria - Tijuana

CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage

The CONCACAF Champions League is probably one of the most disproportionate tournaments in the world, so we can rarely find any value here, but this bet looks good enough. Club Tijuana started their campaign with a draw, which is always a good point if taken away from home. However, for a Mexican club, anything besides wins in this competition can be considered a fail, that's why I think they should be going for a win here. Another draw may sound good, especially since Tijuana will play their remaining matches at home, but they may end up sweating towards the end. Honduras is a tough place to go and win, but I'm not expecting any miracles from debutant Victoria. Last year, the country's best clubs, Olimpia and Marathon, failed to win at home against MLS opposition, and as we all know, Mexican clubs are better than the American ones. The big unknown here is usually the squad that the big clubs choose to field, but from the looks of it, Tijuana will go with a strong squad. The expected line-up for the Mexicans provides us pretty much all the regulars, with the exception of striker Benedetto (3/3 so far in the Apertura). The defensive and midfield lines are intact, while in the offensive line we still have some quality, with Fidel Martinez (3/2) and Joe Corona (3/0) - both are actually midfielders, but they're playing quite often in advanced positions. The quality advantage is obviously on the Mexican side, and the odds provided look good enough to risk a bet here. GL!

Tijuana (-0.5 AH) @ 2.08, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON

Spain - Uruguay

FIFA Confederations Cup 2013, Group Stage

There's not much to say here... Everybody knows Spain, the reigning champions of the World Cup and the European Championship, and are the main favorites for this Confederations Cup. They do have an offensive squad, but they also deploy the tiki-taka style of play, with which they basically try to pass the ball until they find the right spot to take the action forward. But that usually means a delay in the game, and they rarely lose possesion. However, Uruguay looks like a team capable of hurting them when they have the ball. Forlan is absent, it's true, but they have Suarez up-front, and he will be backed by Cavani, Gaston Ramirez and Cristian Rodriguez. So they should have a lot of options and a lot of speed when taking their actions vertically. Put them against Xavi, Iniesta, Villa and Torres, and we should have an entertaining match, between two teams that have world class players, who relish any offensive plays. Also, surprises are quite often in this competition, so the best bet would be to go for the goals, especially under these circumstances. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.03, 4/10 
Result: 2-1, WON

Cerro Porteno - Deportes Tolima

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Very similar pick to the one from last week, as once again we will go against Cerro Porteno. They have 0 points after the first 5 rounds, so they obviously have zero chances of advancing. Everybody is aware of that, so for the second straight week, they will be fielding a reserve team in Libertadores. Last week they have rested all of their regulars, and were trashed 1-5 by Real Garcilaso. Of course, the high altitude from Cuzco also played a big role, especially in the second half when Cerro's players colapsed, but the overall impression of the team was bad. And for this match, the coach will pretty much repeat the same team, using just reserve players and youngsters (only Nanni can be considered a former regular). Meanwhile, Tolima comes to Paraguay guns blazing, as they have the qualification on the line. They need to win, and they also need to hope that Santa Fe will beat Garcilaso as well, making it a Colombian 1-2. But before they can think of the other game, they will need to secure the 3 points here. They will have a couple of important players unavailable, so their job won't be easy without the likes of Leichtweis (9 app/4 goals in the local league + 4 more goals in Libertadores) and Roberto Merino (6/2). But they've proved they can play even without them, so I trust they will be able to deliver now as well. They are in a must-win situation, against an unexperienced team, so I expect them to prevail. GL!

Tolima (-0.25 AH) @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST

Santa Fe - Real Garcilaso

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Interesting match in Colombia tonight, as Santa Fe are looking to clinch the first place in the table against qualification hopefuls Real Garcilaso. The Colombians only have to avoid a defeat in order to win the group, therefore a draw would suit them well. On the other hand, Garcilaso also needs only a draw to assure their qualification, regardless of what Tolima does in their match against Cerro Porteno (it should be a Colombian win, as Cerro will be using a team full of youngsters and reserves). Despite their efforts and their incredible campaign in this competition, I still don't see Garcilaso as a team to be reckoned with. But if they are good at one thing, that would be defending and scoring on the counter at the perfect moment. They have lost just one game so far, 0-3 at home against Tolima, when they tried to control the game. But their best results came when playing as visitors, as they've beaten both Tolima and Cerro Porteno by 1-0,. in the closing minutes of the game, after some heroic defending. They will probably employ the same tactics today as well, because as I've mentioned earlier, a draw would be perfect for both teams, and even if they lose, I doubt they'll do so by more than one goal. GL!

Garcilaso (+0.75 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now.  They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON

The Strongest - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

In this group, Atletico MG has sealed their qualification, with 4 consecutive wins, leaving them with 12 points at the top of the group, 8 points more than their followers with two rounds remaining. But everything remains wide open when it comes to second place, as all 3 teams (Sao Paulo, Arsenal and The Strongest) are separated by just one points. So for sure, all teams will do their best to get as many points as possible. The Bolivians have the high altitude to their advantage, but that's pretty much it. They don't have star players, they don't have a strong team... but the altitude alone is enough to put serious problems to even the best teams. However, there is always a way around that, as we've seen in the last round, when they were defeated at home 1-2 by Atletico MG. And this time, their opponents will be Sao Paulo, who desperately needs the win. They have the players they need to achieve such a results (Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Ganso, etc), and they should also have the motivation. With The Strongest also having a good shot at qualification, I'm expecting a pretty nice match, with plenty of goals, as is usually the case at high altitude. And even if we look at Sao Paulo's record alone, the results seem encouraging: they lost 3-4 this year against Bolivar, while in their previous matches against The Strongest in Bolivia, they won 4-1 in 2003, and drew 3-3 in 2005. All of the The Strongest's matches so far have ended with 3 goals, so I think we're going for a sure thing here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

Santa Fe - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Everything seems to be against Cerro Porteno in this match. They are passing through their worst footballing moment in recent years, as they are rock bottom in both the local league, as well as in Copa Libertadores, and with 0 points in their group, following 3 straight defeats, they have minimal chances to qualify (close to 0 actually). Playing as visitors won't help them either, as Bogota is situated at 2600 meters above sea level, and that is quite a lot for a team not used to playing at such high altitudes. And to top it all, Cerro also have some squad/internal problems. winger Bonet is injured, while two other players have been left out of the trip by the manager's decision: playmaker Fabbro (4/2) and striker Nanni (who, as much as I hate, is still an important piece in the squad). Meanwhile, Santa Fe is flying high, as they are undefeated in the last 10 games in all competitions, and they have the qualification at stake, as Tolima will have a tough match in Cusco against Garcilaso, so a win against Cerro Porteno, corroborated with a failure of Tolima, would assure their qualifciation for around 90%. They are strong enough to see of this challenge, and even though the odds are rather low, I'll take the bet as I don't see Santa Fe failing. GL!

Santa Fe (-1 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Arsenal Sarandi - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

This match can pretty much sway the qualification in favor of the Brazilians. If Sao Paulo wins, Arsenal will remain with 1 point in the table, 6 behind the Brazilians, so it will be game over for them (and Sao Paulo will qualify, because I don't see The Strongest making up 4 points in the last 2 games). So the only chance that the Argentinians have right now is to win today, equal them on points, and hope that Sao Paulo fails in Bolivia (they've already played there). So I don't really see them waiting for an opponent's mistake, and they should be going out looking for the goal. Sao Paulo isn't a team to sit back in defense, so I'm sure they'll go out trying to control the game as well. They have loads of quality in their squad (Rogerio Ceni, Denilson, Ganso, Jadson or Luis Fabiano), and those players are able to create danger out of nothing. And since Arsenal's defense isn't anything special, they should have their fair chances. Their last match ended with just 1-1, but more goals could have come easily. Let's hope that they'll improve on their finishing and provide a nice match. Line is good at 2.25, as we have a small insurance in case of another 1-1. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON

The Strongest - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

The Strongest must be really unhappy with the draw, as they landed in the same group with two Brazilian teams and one Argentinian. Big difference in quality, but the lucky part for the Bolivians is that neither of those teams are used to play at altitude. So they should make the most of their home matches, and they did have a good start with a win against Arsenal. They didn't have too much luck in the following two games, both played in Brazil, but they were still able to put on some nice performances, losing both games by just 1-2. Now this should be a different story, as they are more offensive at home, and can take advantage of the probable physical problems that the Brazilians should have in the high altitude of La Paz. Atletico are so far one of the best teams in the competition, with 9 points from 9 possible, and with an awesome goal-scoring record of 9 goals in 3 games (with 4 against, conceding in every game). They also like to play on the offense, and have tons of skills in their squad (Ronaldinho, Jo, Diego Tardelli, etc). They can be deadly on counter-attacks, and even more from set pieces, and they should have plenty of spaces, as The Strongest's only chance to get something from this group is to go out in attack. Both teams had only overs so far in this group, and usually, games played in the altitude of La Paz end with plenty of goals. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.93, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Emelec - Deportes Iquique

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Emelec were enjoying a perfect start of the season: victories on the line in the local league, and a 1-0 win against Velez for their Libertadores debut. Now, even though things are still going like clockwork in the league, they are facing some tough times in the continental cup, as they come from 2 straight defeats. And if against Penarol there isn't too much to say (despite them not making a bad game), the 0-2 loss at Iquique came as a shocker. That's why I think the revenge factor should be primordial in this game. Emelec is pretty much a different team when they are playing at home, and as proof we have the aforementioned win against Argentinian giants, Velez Sarsfield. They've also won as visitors against LDU Quito, while resting several regulars, and even though it was a match in the league, I would rate LDU as better team than Iquique at any time. They've also had a week's rest, postponing their game against Barcelona, and the same can not be said about the Chileans. They played during a weekend, losing against Huachipato, taking their domestic tally to 3 straight defeats. They are mostly and average team, for Chilean standards, and the 0-3 loss at Velez says a lot, as they were never a contest. I would expect a similar scenario now in Ecuador, and I also expect the line to drop even more. GL!

Emelec (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST

Newell's - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

We may have been used to seeing U de Chile shinning on the field, but those times are unfortunately long gone. What we have today is a totally different team than what we had last year, as a lot of their key players have left (almost half of the team), and the magic-maker coach Sampaoli has also left the team. So, right now we have just a shadow of that team, without any clear objective. And we can see the effects that those changes have made: they are just 7th in the league after 6 rounds (not a big deal, as they are just 3 points behind the leaders), and have recorded some rather average results in Libertadores. They won against Lara in the opening match, 2-0, which was a normal result, nothing extraordinary, but in their second game their other face was shown, as they were just pushed aside by a very troubled Olimpia. The result aside, U de Chile really put in a tragic performance, showing lack of ideas, inability to score and some defensive gaps. Keep in mind Olimpia was/is in quite a deep crisis, losing at home to newly-promoted General Diaz, and snatching a draw after being outplayed by Rubio Nu. Newells, like 75% of the Argentinian teams, are a solid side, especially when it comes to playing at home. They've soundly beaten Olimpia by 3-1, and what's really bothering me is their loss at Lara, 1-2, which was most likely an accident. However, that fares well for this bet, as they should be pumped-up for this match, looking to get their campaign back on track. U de Chile might have posed some problems last year, but now, I barely give them any chances to come away with something from Rosario. The line is very good, and it's definitely bound to drop. GL!

Newell's (-0.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Tolima - Garcilaso

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

This Real Garcilaso team is a real strange factor this season. They have lost most of their regulars, don't show much on the pitch and are also not impressive play-wise, but yet, they do not lose their matches. And their best feat was seen last week, as they won 1-0 away at Cerro Porteno (which must definitely count as the best result in the club's short history). Now the question is, how long can they keep it up? In Paraguay, they were being crushed by Cerro Porteno, barely leaving their own half as the Paraguayans kept pressing and attacking. But some terrible finishing from the hosts, and a great counter attack gave the Peruvians a famous 1-0 win. It is true that Cerro was in turmoil at that points, but that still doesn't take away Garcilaso's merits. And now I have confidence that Tolima is a strong enough team to put an end to their dream-run. They don't have a star-filled team, but they have a solid squad, and so far everything went pretty good for them: 4 points in Libertadores, and only one defeat in the local league (last weekend, 0-3 against Boyaca Chico - they used mostly reserves in that match). Won't be an easy match, but I don't think Tolima can fail to win this match, so I'm going for the -1 handicap. GL!

Tolima (-1 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 0-1, LOST