Herediano - Cruz Azul

CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage

Cruz Azul is facing this last round with a perfect score, and they are all but qualified. With a 3 points advantage over Herediano, a 3-0 in the direct match and a +3 advantage with the goal difference, only a disaster would stop Cruz Azul from qualifying. They can draw, they can even lose by a certain margin, and they would still qualify. But even so, if we look at the squad they picked for the travel to Costa Rica, we can see that they are treating this match rather seriously. It won't be their best squad, obviously (Mexican clubs rarely use all of their best players), but there are a lot of big names there, as they have chosen 7 key players to take on this match (including Julio Dominguez, Gerardo Torrado, Luis Perea and Pavone). No word yet on the official starting line-up, but I'm sure we'll see a lot of those key players, for a simple reason: there's no point in making them take the trip, if you're not going to play them. Herediano did an OK job as well, winning both matches against Valencia Leogane, but that's not something to count here. Cruz Azul beat them clearly in the home game, and even though today they don't need to win, Herediano could lose focus as well, as a miracle win is highly unlikely. GL!

Cruz Azul (-0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Cruz Azul - Herediano

CONCACAF Champions League, Group Stage

Cruz Azul will finally start their Champions League campaign, after having the first match-day off, due to the new format of the competition, where groups are consisting of only 3 teams. The Mexican team are usually challengers in this competition, as during the last 5 years they have played 2 finals and one additional semifinal. There is no word on the line-up that will be used, but if we look at their history, it is to be expected for Cruz Azul to use a few reserve players, as most Mexican teams do when they are playing at home. Their group is a fairly easy one, with opposition from Costa Rica and Haiti, but they do need to get at least 4 points against Herediano (they shouldn't break a sweat against the Haitians). So I'm expecting a decent squad today, and the home win shouldn't be put under question. Herediano did well in their debut, beating Valencia by 6-1, but this will be totally different for them. They never won on Mexican grounds, regardless of the opposition and the squad used, and I really doubt they'll manage that today. The line is lower than I expected, so I think it's worth to go with the Mexicans here. GL!

Cruz Azul (-1.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Cruz Azul - Deportivo Tachira

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

This bet is a bit risky, but I just can't turn down this huge handicap on the Venezuelans. Tachira made a solid performance in their debut against Corinthians, holding the Brazilians to a draw, and could have even gotten away with the win, if it weren't for that 94th minute equalizer from Timao. Tachira showed good defending in that match, always with 7 players near their area, and had a couple of lethal surges on the counter-attack, including a disallowed goal. Defense will probably be their game plan again tonight, and if they do it as well as one week ago, the Mexicans will find it hard to score. Especially since Cruz Azul is known for being irregular. They made a good match in Paraguay, but both goals were scored after some defensive mistakes from Nacional. About their irregularity, I think it's enough to say that despite being the only undefeated team in the local league, they have only managed to win 2 of their 7 matches. They are for sure the better team in terms of quality here, but for this bet to be completly lost, they need a win by a 3-goal margin, and that's far from easy to achieve against a team that defends well and fights for every ball. (As a side note, last year Tachira never lost by more than 2 goals, despite being in a group with Cerro Porteno, Colo Colo and Santos, and away from home, only Santos managed to beat them by a 2-goal margin). A bit risky, but the high handicap makes it worth a try. GL!

Tachira (+1.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 4-0, LOST

Nacional Asuncion - Cruz Azul

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

A nice movement in odds has caught my attention here. From an average opening price of 2.10 to the current average of 2.45 is really something, and it only suits my taste, since I see no reason for this movements. The Mexican teams are tough to beat usually (although Chivas's performance from last night left me with a sour taste), but when playing away from home they are usually beatable. Especially since for tonight, there are some rumours circulating, that coach Meza could give a rest to some of the regulars, in preparation for their league match against Tijuana, as Cruz Azul are fighting hard to win a trophy after almost 15 years. Meanwhile, Nacional have lost their first match of the season, against Libertad, but besides a red card that ended their chances of a come-back, they also saved a couple of their key players, especially for this Libertadores match. It should be a tight affair, but I just can't see the Paraguayans losing this game, so the new DNB line looks very good. GL!

Nacional DNB @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Cruz Azul - Estudiantes Tecos

Football, Mexico Primera Division, Clausura

Cruz Azul are still known as the 'Almost team', as they somehow manage to drown at the end of the road (usually in a final) after a great run until then. Apertura 2008, Clausura 2008 and 2009, CONCACAF Champions League 2010... in all of these competitions, they failed in the Final. Last year, in the Apertura 2010 was the same story. They topped the league table after the regular season, and were showing great football, scoring a lot of goals and being very pleasant to watch. But the same mental breakdown happened in the play-offs, as they surprisingly lost in the quarter finals against Pumas. So they have to start all over again in this Clausura. The good thing is that they kept Meza as a coach. He really worked wonders with the team, and they improved a lot with him at the helm. So now, he can continue his work, and I'm sure that in 2011 we'll see the same impressive Cruz Azul as last year. They have also kept all of their important players, so if they beat their mental problems, this could be their year. Tecos were awful in Apertura, finishing the league second from bottom, with the most dreadful defense (36 goals conceded in 17 matches). They tried to strengthen their squad during the break, but they only focused on the midfield and offense, leaving the defense just as wide open as last year. They also have a new coach, so maybe there will be some positive effect in the squad. Wanted to take the handicap on Cruz Azul, but this being the first match of the year, Tecos might surprise a bit. Still, 2-3 goals for Cruz Azul should be a lock, and the odds for over 2.5 are good enough to be taken. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.93, 3/10

Result: 4-1, WON

Cruz Azul - Arabe Unido

CONCACAF Champions League

I had quite a shock when I saw the handicap lines for this match, as it's way higher than I expected, and with lower odds, so I had to lower my stakes a bit. However, the line seems fair, and it's still very much possible to pass it. That is because, even though the starting line-up will probably be a mix of regulars and reserves, this time, Cruz Azul is forced to win the match, otherwise they could be having some serious troubles in qualifying, as their away game at Real Salt Lake will be far from a piece of cake. And if Toronto wins against Real tonight, they will fight this qualification till the end. And I don't see Cruz Azul failing to win tonight, and anything than a blow-over will be another fail for them. Regulars or reserves, they still have at least twice the quality of the Panama team, and that can also be seen in this year's meetings between the two, with Cruz Azul winning all 3 matches played. Two weeks ago, there was a 6-0 in Panama for the Mexicans, and they were also playing with a mixed squad, so that pretty much says it all. Altitude should also play in favor of 'La Maquina', and if you don't expect Arabe Unido to score, that the handicap choice is much better than the over (and I certainly don't expect them to score). However, had to lower the stakes, as I was planning a big stake bet on -1.5. GL!

Cruz Azul (-2 AH) @ 1.82, 5/10

Result: 2-0, VOID

Cruz Azul - Toronto FC

CONCACAF Champions League

It's revenge time for Cruz Azul, as they will face one of the two teams that have managed to beat them in this new season, 2-1 in Canada. However, things will be looking slightly different now. Cruz Azul made an awful first half in the first leg, and the score could have easily been 3-0 or even 4-0, no there would have been no eyebrows raised. But that is in the past now, because ever since then, La Machina managed to win all their 6 games, also managing to score 23 goals, and astonishing 4 goals/match. Great form for them, great goal-scoring rush, and I don't see how Toronto will be able to make some problems again. Some youngsters might play (Meza always gives his official line-up just minutes before the game), but also some regulars are expected, especially Orozco, who scored 7 goals in this group.
The Canadians are facing some serious problems, mostly due to fixture congestion, having already played 5 games this month, and another 3 are pending, and the MLS can't cope with this two-matches per week series, so it is likely that they won't field their regulars. Then, we have their poor form when playing away in the Champions League, as they remain with just the 3 points snatched from Cruz Azul, losing both their other matches, 1-4 at Salt Lake, and 0-1 at Arabe Unido. And there's also the altitude factor, Cruz Azul playing at over 2000 meters of altitude, making Toronto's mission practically impossible. And with Mista suspended, making it sure he won't play, as the team still in with a chance for the play-offs, their focus will surely not be on this match. GL!

Cruz Azul (-1.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Arabe Unido - Cruz Azul

CONCACAF Champions League

This two teams will face each other in a group A fixture, certainly one of the tightest groups in the CCL history, where all 4 teams are equal on 3 points after the first two matches. That is why Cruz Azul can't afford a bad step in Panama, as they still have to travel to Salt Lake to face Real, and for sure that match is going to be tougher than this one. Arabe Unido had a good run last year in the group stages, being undefeated at home, and even trashing Isidro Metapan 6-0 and Toluca 4-1. However, the same opponent as today, Cruz Azul, ended their hopes in the quarter-finals, with a double victory. But their main advantage, the artificial turf, is gone now, as they will play this match on a new stadium, with a grass surface, and the Mexican players liked it during practice, and will probably do better on it than on the turf. Moreover, some players are questionable for them, so the line-up could see some surprises.

Cruz Azul went to Panama with everything they have, but I doubt we'll see a 100% team on the field. The line-up will be made public only before the match, but with the team in not a good situation in the group, I think we can count on a several regulars, especially Emanuel Villa, Javier Orozco and Christian Gimenez (scored 13 of the 18 goals in the Primera Division, and Orozco scored 4 in the groups with Gimenez close by with 2) should play some part in the match. Cruz Azul is also doing great in their league, being the overall leaders, 3 points ahead of Santos and Monterrey, so they will try to transfer their good form from the league to the CL. This bet looks good, because the handicap looks do-able, and a victory for the Mexicans shouldn't be a problem. GL!

Cruz Azul (-0.75 AH) @ 1.95, 2/10

Result: 0-6, WON

Cruz Azul - Real Salt Lake

CONCACAF Champions League

Finally found some info about Cruz Azul and their line-up for tonight. Don't know how reliable the info is, but apparently, they wll be sending on the field most of their regulars, and their squad looks much better than against Toronto. Torrado, Gimenez and Orozco should start the match. After one of their poorest performances I've ever seen (in the first half against the Canadians, they were nowhere to be found, and their defense seemed on drugs), they woke up a bit after some changes in the second half, and slowly started to take control of the match, but didn't do enough to secure at least a point. Now, they should be out in attack blazing, from the first minute, as with all the other teams having 3 points, anything but a win tonight could complicate the group a lot.

RSL is also reported to be using their strongest squad available, but I have my doubts regarding that, as after this match they will have to travel all the way to Canada, for an important match against Toronto on the weekend. So we may see some reserves on the field, but even if they go with their best team, they still have the second chance in this match. It's just a question of handicap, but with the market on the -1, I'll take it, as I don't think the time has come when a MLS team can win in Mexico. And with Cruz Azul probably learning from their mistake, I see them making a solid performance here. Small stakes only because of the questionable reliability of the line-up source. GL!

Cruz Azul (-1 AH) @ 1.98, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 5-4, VOID