Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Both teams started the season in awful fashion, but recently, at least Guarani showed signs of recovery. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last 10 games, Guarani won 5 (including games against Libertad and Olimpia), while Olimpia won only 2, against bottom teams like Cerro PF and Carapegua. It's no secret that Olimpia is knee-deep in problems, both administrative and financial, and it looks like there's no easy way out. The coach received backing from the board, having his contract extended, and the main blame is taken by the squad, which is also undergoing a renovation process. Therefore, once again, we will see on the field, from the first minute, players like Marcos Fingst (2/0), Alex Garcete (1/0) or Walter Clar (1/0). All of them are youngsters, barely breaking into the team, and I doubt they'll have what it takes to shift the balance in a derby. Guarani has the experience, in this case, so for sure they have the advantage. Also, in the previous 3 encounters between the two in 2013, Guarani won 2 and lost 1, and the goal difference over those 3 games is 9-4 in Guarani's favor. It's a Clasico, and I usually tend to stay away from these games, but this looks simply too good to skip: Olimpia plagued by problems and using youth players, Guarani in recovery of pace, and also the safe-line that the DNB provides. GL!
Guarani DNB @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
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Showing posts with label Clausura. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Clausura. Show all posts
Nov 4, 2013
Nov 3, 2013
Nacional - Sp. Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Deportivo Capiata - Sp. Carapegua
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!
Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!
Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Cerro Porteno - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!
Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!
Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
Oct 28, 2013
Sol de America - Cerro Porteno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Oct 22, 2013
Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!
Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON
The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!
Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON
Oct 6, 2013
Nacional - Rubio Nu
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Sep 22, 2013
General Diaz - Sportivo Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!
Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!
Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Aug 20, 2013
General Diaz - Cerro Porteno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Cerro Porteno may be out of Copa Sudamericana, but their schedule isn't at all more relaxed these days. They will have to face General Diaz today, and they have the SuperClasico against Olimpia during the weekend. But we have some good news, as coach Arce said he will use the best he has, in order to take the three points and to continue at the top of the standings. Diaz is a bubble that it's about to burst, and even though they managed a highly unlikely win on Friday, trashing Guarani by 3-0 on their own ground, I won't let myself get carried away, and I just can't see how their form will last. They aren't one of the better teams in the league, and even though they are enjoying a good run lately (besides the win against Guarani, they also drew with Nacional and Libertad), I'm confident it will end sooner, rather than later. Since Cerro will be using their main squad here, they should have the first chance in this match, and if we also think about the fact that they've won both matches against Diaz in the Apertura, I think we should see a repeat of those results. GL!
Cerro (-0.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Cerro Porteno may be out of Copa Sudamericana, but their schedule isn't at all more relaxed these days. They will have to face General Diaz today, and they have the SuperClasico against Olimpia during the weekend. But we have some good news, as coach Arce said he will use the best he has, in order to take the three points and to continue at the top of the standings. Diaz is a bubble that it's about to burst, and even though they managed a highly unlikely win on Friday, trashing Guarani by 3-0 on their own ground, I won't let myself get carried away, and I just can't see how their form will last. They aren't one of the better teams in the league, and even though they are enjoying a good run lately (besides the win against Guarani, they also drew with Nacional and Libertad), I'm confident it will end sooner, rather than later. Since Cerro will be using their main squad here, they should have the first chance in this match, and if we also think about the fact that they've won both matches against Diaz in the Apertura, I think we should see a repeat of those results. GL!
Cerro (-0.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 18, 2013
Cerro Porteno - Sol de America
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Once Cerro Porteno signed their elimination from Copa Sudamericana, they can now fully focus on the local league, especially since a win today could see them equal on points with the leaders. Moreover, the reigning champions - Nacional, and the current leaders - Libertad, are expected to struggle with fixture congestion, since both are still engaged with the continental competition, so this could provide Cerro some breathing space. And their coach is well aware of this, and tonight he will use the best players that he has at his disposal, including those that have played on Wednesday with the national team, Oscar Romero and Fernandez. Sol de America are doing a very good campaign so far, sitting in the table just one point behind Cerro, but they've had a very favorable fixture draw. They come after two high-profile wins, 2-1 away at Nacional, and 2-0 at home with Guarani, but both teams were using their second-string teams. Other than that, they've lost at home in the first round against lowly Capiata, so that should paint a picture of their true colors. I expect Cerro to bring them down to earth, after those two high-profile wins, and since they will be fielding a full squad, this shouldn't go past a home win. GL!
Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Once Cerro Porteno signed their elimination from Copa Sudamericana, they can now fully focus on the local league, especially since a win today could see them equal on points with the leaders. Moreover, the reigning champions - Nacional, and the current leaders - Libertad, are expected to struggle with fixture congestion, since both are still engaged with the continental competition, so this could provide Cerro some breathing space. And their coach is well aware of this, and tonight he will use the best players that he has at his disposal, including those that have played on Wednesday with the national team, Oscar Romero and Fernandez. Sol de America are doing a very good campaign so far, sitting in the table just one point behind Cerro, but they've had a very favorable fixture draw. They come after two high-profile wins, 2-1 away at Nacional, and 2-0 at home with Guarani, but both teams were using their second-string teams. Other than that, they've lost at home in the first round against lowly Capiata, so that should paint a picture of their true colors. I expect Cerro to bring them down to earth, after those two high-profile wins, and since they will be fielding a full squad, this shouldn't go past a home win. GL!
Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Aug 17, 2013
Guarani - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Guarani found it hard recently in the league, mainly due to their matches in Copa Sudamericana, which forced them to apply some squad rotations in the league. That's why they are still without a win in this tournament, after 3 rounds, and are sharing the last place in the standings with Nacional and Rubio Nu. It's quite an unacceptable situation for them, and the coach thinks the same. That is why it is expected that they will be fielding their best available squad tonight, without resting anyone in expectancy of their Libertadores match from next week, against Atletico Nacional. And if that happens, I give them the first option to take a win tonight, and it should be a rather easy win. General Diaz are nothing special, and despite being undefeated in Clausura, they have only recorded draws so far. If you look at the names, it may appear as quite a performance, but Libertad are reconstructing their team, Capiata is a very poor team, while Nacional was resting almost their entire squad. It should be a different affair now, if Guarani won't hold anything back, and even though Diaz won the first match played this year, I just don't see them making a repeat of that performance. GL!
Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-3, LOST
Guarani found it hard recently in the league, mainly due to their matches in Copa Sudamericana, which forced them to apply some squad rotations in the league. That's why they are still without a win in this tournament, after 3 rounds, and are sharing the last place in the standings with Nacional and Rubio Nu. It's quite an unacceptable situation for them, and the coach thinks the same. That is why it is expected that they will be fielding their best available squad tonight, without resting anyone in expectancy of their Libertadores match from next week, against Atletico Nacional. And if that happens, I give them the first option to take a win tonight, and it should be a rather easy win. General Diaz are nothing special, and despite being undefeated in Clausura, they have only recorded draws so far. If you look at the names, it may appear as quite a performance, but Libertad are reconstructing their team, Capiata is a very poor team, while Nacional was resting almost their entire squad. It should be a different affair now, if Guarani won't hold anything back, and even though Diaz won the first match played this year, I just don't see them making a repeat of that performance. GL!
Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-3, LOST
Aug 11, 2013
General Diaz - Nacional
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!
Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!
Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
May 26, 2013
Juventud - Penarol
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Another bet from Uruguay, as we have another match that promises a lot. Both teams are still in the fight for glory, even though it's a different kind of glory. Penarol are knee-deep in the title race, 3 points behind Clausura league-leaders Defensor, and one point above them in the Annual table (everything is important here: Penarol won Apertura so if they will also win Clausua they will be automatically crowned champions. If they lose Clausura, they will play in the semi-final with Defensor... if they win the annual table and the semi-final, they will be crowned champions). And for this game, they are putting everything on the line, as they have practiced with a very offensive line-up: two forwards (Zalayeta and Pacheco) and two quick wingers (Estoyanoff and Nunez), plus a move in the defensive line, where offensive minded Aguirregaray will play as a right wing-back. A more offensive formation than usual, as they will be going all out for the title. Juventud, on the other hand, are going for their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, which will be an incredible feat for them. They are tied on points with Wanderers and Fenix for the 6th place, the last that provides continental qualification. And besides this, which should provide extra motivation, they also have a solid home record, with 4-1-2, and just a couple of weeks ago they managed to beat Nacional by 2-0. They certainly won't roll over, and they should try and exploit the spaces that Penarol will leave behind. So I'm confident that we will see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 1-5, WON
Another bet from Uruguay, as we have another match that promises a lot. Both teams are still in the fight for glory, even though it's a different kind of glory. Penarol are knee-deep in the title race, 3 points behind Clausura league-leaders Defensor, and one point above them in the Annual table (everything is important here: Penarol won Apertura so if they will also win Clausua they will be automatically crowned champions. If they lose Clausura, they will play in the semi-final with Defensor... if they win the annual table and the semi-final, they will be crowned champions). And for this game, they are putting everything on the line, as they have practiced with a very offensive line-up: two forwards (Zalayeta and Pacheco) and two quick wingers (Estoyanoff and Nunez), plus a move in the defensive line, where offensive minded Aguirregaray will play as a right wing-back. A more offensive formation than usual, as they will be going all out for the title. Juventud, on the other hand, are going for their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, which will be an incredible feat for them. They are tied on points with Wanderers and Fenix for the 6th place, the last that provides continental qualification. And besides this, which should provide extra motivation, they also have a solid home record, with 4-1-2, and just a couple of weeks ago they managed to beat Nacional by 2-0. They certainly won't roll over, and they should try and exploit the spaces that Penarol will leave behind. So I'm confident that we will see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 1-5, WON
Racing - Liverpool
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Another interesting match in Uruguay, where Racing will be facing Liverpool. The hosts still have a remote chance of qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana, but with low chances of that happening, they will probably play for their second pressing issue: saving the team from relegation. The chances of that happening are also low (Progreso needs to win both remaining games, while Racing needs to lose them), but I'm expecting them to go out and clinch it today.So even if it won't be much, there is still something to play for here. Meanwhile, in Liverpool's camp, things are not even close to being calm or good. They don't have any pressing needs right now, as they are safe from relegation and without any chances of getting to a continental competition. But instead of having a quiet end of the season, the fans are out to get coach Muller's head. Besides the very poor results (only 2 wins in the last 10 games, and just 3 wins throughout the competition), team-captain and fan-favorite Macchi has been left out of the team, due to a coach decision. The directors are backing the coach, so the fans are pretty much against the entire management of the team, and have repeatedly protested against them. Word is, even some players are against the coach, and would like to see him go. So without results, amidst an internal tempest and without anything at stake, Racing should take the points here, especially since they've recorded quite some nice results recently: draws at Nacional and El Tanque, and an amazing victory against Penarol, coming from 0-1 down to win it 2-1. GL!
Racing (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Another interesting match in Uruguay, where Racing will be facing Liverpool. The hosts still have a remote chance of qualifying for the Copa Sudamericana, but with low chances of that happening, they will probably play for their second pressing issue: saving the team from relegation. The chances of that happening are also low (Progreso needs to win both remaining games, while Racing needs to lose them), but I'm expecting them to go out and clinch it today.So even if it won't be much, there is still something to play for here. Meanwhile, in Liverpool's camp, things are not even close to being calm or good. They don't have any pressing needs right now, as they are safe from relegation and without any chances of getting to a continental competition. But instead of having a quiet end of the season, the fans are out to get coach Muller's head. Besides the very poor results (only 2 wins in the last 10 games, and just 3 wins throughout the competition), team-captain and fan-favorite Macchi has been left out of the team, due to a coach decision. The directors are backing the coach, so the fans are pretty much against the entire management of the team, and have repeatedly protested against them. Word is, even some players are against the coach, and would like to see him go. So without results, amidst an internal tempest and without anything at stake, Racing should take the points here, especially since they've recorded quite some nice results recently: draws at Nacional and El Tanque, and an amazing victory against Penarol, coming from 0-1 down to win it 2-1. GL!
Racing (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
May 25, 2013
Fenix - Danubio
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Fenix is playing on two fronts here, with two different objectives in mind. First of all, they need to assure their position in the Primera Division, as they are just 8 points ahead of the relegation zone (and Progreso will double up the remaining points, so there are still chances for Fenix to relegate). Then, they will also want to take another step towards a ticket for Copa Sudamericana, where they are just 1 point behind El Tanque Sisley. Danubio plays for nothing, as they are safe from relegation, and they also have minimal chances of going to a continental competition. They do have some slight chances of winning the Clausura, but with 5 points behind the leaders, and with 2 other teams between them, they will have to be realistic and call it a day. So I'm expecting Danubio to play without real motivation, wherein Fenix will be giving it they're all to achieve their objectives. They are in good form, with 3 victories in their last 5 games (lost only to league leaders Defensor), and are a strong team to play against, especially on their home ground (lost only one game, against Racing). Odds went up quite a bit since the market opened (probably because most people are backing Danubio for their title race), but with some poor recent performances, I find it hard to trust them. The available lines are looking very good, and Fenix gets my vote here.
Fenix DNB @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
Fenix is playing on two fronts here, with two different objectives in mind. First of all, they need to assure their position in the Primera Division, as they are just 8 points ahead of the relegation zone (and Progreso will double up the remaining points, so there are still chances for Fenix to relegate). Then, they will also want to take another step towards a ticket for Copa Sudamericana, where they are just 1 point behind El Tanque Sisley. Danubio plays for nothing, as they are safe from relegation, and they also have minimal chances of going to a continental competition. They do have some slight chances of winning the Clausura, but with 5 points behind the leaders, and with 2 other teams between them, they will have to be realistic and call it a day. So I'm expecting Danubio to play without real motivation, wherein Fenix will be giving it they're all to achieve their objectives. They are in good form, with 3 victories in their last 5 games (lost only to league leaders Defensor), and are a strong team to play against, especially on their home ground (lost only one game, against Racing). Odds went up quite a bit since the market opened (probably because most people are backing Danubio for their title race), but with some poor recent performances, I find it hard to trust them. The available lines are looking very good, and Fenix gets my vote here.
Fenix DNB @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, VOID
River Plate - Central Espanol
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
With just 2 rounds remaining in the Uruguayan league, things are pretty much clear, and everyone knows what they have to do. One such game is River against Central Espanol, where both teams need to win, but for totally different reasons. River needs the 3 points to tie Defensor at the top of the Clausura table, and put some pressure on them (they play on Sunday), while Central Espanol needs a miracle, as they need the 3 points here and in the last round, while they're also hoping for a couple of slip-ups from Fenix and Progreso, in order to continue in the Primera Division. And this will be very hard for them, as they have been showing some very poor football so far, and they are playing against a team who fights for the title. River made an excellent campaign so far, and will repeat the team that drew last week with Defensor. No important absences for them, as they look set to continue their good form, as they won 7 out of 13 games in the Clausura (second-best behind Defensor), where they also have the best offense, with 21goals scored. They have a lot to play for, as I'm sure they won't be giving up the fight so easily, and I'm confident in an easy win here. GL!
River (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 5-0, WON
With just 2 rounds remaining in the Uruguayan league, things are pretty much clear, and everyone knows what they have to do. One such game is River against Central Espanol, where both teams need to win, but for totally different reasons. River needs the 3 points to tie Defensor at the top of the Clausura table, and put some pressure on them (they play on Sunday), while Central Espanol needs a miracle, as they need the 3 points here and in the last round, while they're also hoping for a couple of slip-ups from Fenix and Progreso, in order to continue in the Primera Division. And this will be very hard for them, as they have been showing some very poor football so far, and they are playing against a team who fights for the title. River made an excellent campaign so far, and will repeat the team that drew last week with Defensor. No important absences for them, as they look set to continue their good form, as they won 7 out of 13 games in the Clausura (second-best behind Defensor), where they also have the best offense, with 21goals scored. They have a lot to play for, as I'm sure they won't be giving up the fight so easily, and I'm confident in an easy win here. GL!
River (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 5-0, WON
May 12, 2013
Bella Vista - Defensor Sporting
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Big match for Defensor Sporting, as they are defending the lead in both the Clausura and the Anual
table, with the end of the season rapidly aproaching. And even though
on paper they have an easy schedule, things are not that easy. A match
against Bella Vista always looks easy at first sight, since they are
rock bottom in the Clausura, with a 20 point difference between
themselves and Defensor Sporting. They also have a bad run of 5
consecutive defeats, and they are seriously being haunted by relegation,
as they are 3 points down the relegation area. So if they want to have
any chances of survival, they have to dig deep. And they have a bit of
luck for this game, as Defensor will be missing a couple of key players.
Giorgian De Arrascaeta (11/2) is one of their best players, and he will
be unavailable after being injured with the U20 national team. He will
join midfielder Nicolas Olivera (8/3) on the
injury list, as well as midfielder Diego Laxalt (5/1) and Leonardo Pais
(3/0), both of them starting the game on the bench. That means that
Defensor will be missing two key players, and since they don't have a
very deep squad, this could pose some problems. They are also less than
impressive when playing away from home, so this line just seems a bit
out of place. GL!
Bella Vista (+1 AH) @ 2.08, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Result: 0-0, WON
Apr 30, 2013
River Plate - Nacional
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
To be honest right from the start here, these odds are just ridiculous. Nacional is Nacional, and they will always be a big name and a good team in this league, but looking at their recent matches and at River's form, it's just silly to give out such odds for them, and make them 1.70 favorites. I'm not impressed at all with the way the team has played, ever since Arruabarrena took over as coach, despite still being undefeated. They managed two wins against last placed Bella Vista and against troubled Liverpool, but they only managed a draw at home against high-flying El Tanque Sisley. And their game is generally not as convincing as it should. And this match also catches them in a tough scheduling-moment, as they will have the Super Clasico against Penarol on Saturday, and are in the middle of a Libertadores clash with Real Garcilaso (lost first leg by 0-1). Three important players will be absent today: defender Nunez (8/0), forward Bueno (4/2) and Alvaro Recoba (4/1). The rest of the regulars will start the match, but they may suffer from fatigue a bit, after a tiring match played at over 3500 meters of altitude last Thursday. River is in awesome form, with 4 consecutive wins, and 6 out of 9 throughout this competition. With a win today, they will be the leaders of the Clausura, equal on points with Defensor, so if they needed some extra-motivation, they have it. And in recent years, they've also had some superiority against Nacional: if we look at their last 10 mutual matches, River won 7 (including the one from Apertura, as visitors, by 2-0), and also recorded a draw, leaving Nacional with just 2 wins. I'm confident they will remain with some points tonight, and these odds are just screaming to be taken. GL!
River (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST
To be honest right from the start here, these odds are just ridiculous. Nacional is Nacional, and they will always be a big name and a good team in this league, but looking at their recent matches and at River's form, it's just silly to give out such odds for them, and make them 1.70 favorites. I'm not impressed at all with the way the team has played, ever since Arruabarrena took over as coach, despite still being undefeated. They managed two wins against last placed Bella Vista and against troubled Liverpool, but they only managed a draw at home against high-flying El Tanque Sisley. And their game is generally not as convincing as it should. And this match also catches them in a tough scheduling-moment, as they will have the Super Clasico against Penarol on Saturday, and are in the middle of a Libertadores clash with Real Garcilaso (lost first leg by 0-1). Three important players will be absent today: defender Nunez (8/0), forward Bueno (4/2) and Alvaro Recoba (4/1). The rest of the regulars will start the match, but they may suffer from fatigue a bit, after a tiring match played at over 3500 meters of altitude last Thursday. River is in awesome form, with 4 consecutive wins, and 6 out of 9 throughout this competition. With a win today, they will be the leaders of the Clausura, equal on points with Defensor, so if they needed some extra-motivation, they have it. And in recent years, they've also had some superiority against Nacional: if we look at their last 10 mutual matches, River won 7 (including the one from Apertura, as visitors, by 2-0), and also recorded a draw, leaving Nacional with just 2 wins. I'm confident they will remain with some points tonight, and these odds are just screaming to be taken. GL!
River (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST
Apr 27, 2013
Fenix - Liverpool
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Fenix and Liverpool
are two teams that usually give us nice football. Despite this, both of
them are in quite a bad situation, as they find themselves in the lower
half of the table. However, there have been some improvements lately,
especially on Fenix's side, as they now have 3 wins in their last 4
games. So they need to keep this up in order to climb above the
relegation places (they are currently sitting on the 14th place in the
relegation table). Liverpool is safe from relegation, and far away from
the places that give tickets for the continental competitions, so they
don't have too much to play for. However, since their campaign has been
quite disappointing so far, I'm sure they would like to improve it as
much as they can. And as I mentioned previously, they are a spectacular
team, as they have the 4th best attack in the league, and by far onr of
thr worst defenses. They will also have a boost today. as their top
scorer
Rodrigo Aguirre (8 goals this season) is fit to play again. All in all,
I expect an entertaining game, as it's usually the case between these
two teams (last 4 games between them had a total of 20 goals), so I'm
confident they could win this bet with ease. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Result: 1-1, LOST
Apr 22, 2013
Nacional - El Tanque Sisley
Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura
Unexpected gift from Racing last night, who have beaten Penarol 2-1 as visitors, thus giving a huge helping hand to all of Penarol's followers. And the ones that will probably enjoy this result the most will be Nacional. With a win today, they will tie Penarol on points in the Clausura, and will bring them just 3 points behind in the Annual table, with the Clasico just around the corner. However, in order to do that, they need to win today. And coach Arruabarrena won't be messing around. Since he rested all of his regulars during mid-week in Libertadores, he has plenty of options today, and he won't leave anyone behind (despite having to play in Peru on Thursday). All regulars are ready to play, and an offensive formation is being prepared, with 3 forwards: Bueno, Alonso and Sanchez (8 goals scored between them, from 14).In front of them, they'll have El Tanque Sisley, who've made a great start of this championship, but lately they've lost the pace, losing 4 of the last 5 matches. They did have some heavy fixtures, having to play River, Penarol and Defensor Sporting, but since Nacional is around the same level as them, the outcome should be similar. El Tanque lost all the games against heavy opposition, and in the last 2 years, Nacional have soundly beaten them when playing at home. Odds went back to normal, so this bet is definitely worth taking. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Unexpected gift from Racing last night, who have beaten Penarol 2-1 as visitors, thus giving a huge helping hand to all of Penarol's followers. And the ones that will probably enjoy this result the most will be Nacional. With a win today, they will tie Penarol on points in the Clausura, and will bring them just 3 points behind in the Annual table, with the Clasico just around the corner. However, in order to do that, they need to win today. And coach Arruabarrena won't be messing around. Since he rested all of his regulars during mid-week in Libertadores, he has plenty of options today, and he won't leave anyone behind (despite having to play in Peru on Thursday). All regulars are ready to play, and an offensive formation is being prepared, with 3 forwards: Bueno, Alonso and Sanchez (8 goals scored between them, from 14).In front of them, they'll have El Tanque Sisley, who've made a great start of this championship, but lately they've lost the pace, losing 4 of the last 5 matches. They did have some heavy fixtures, having to play River, Penarol and Defensor Sporting, but since Nacional is around the same level as them, the outcome should be similar. El Tanque lost all the games against heavy opposition, and in the last 2 years, Nacional have soundly beaten them when playing at home. Odds went back to normal, so this bet is definitely worth taking. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
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