Fenix - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Fenix and Liverpool are two teams that usually give us nice football. Despite this, both of them are in quite a bad situation, as they find themselves in the lower half of the table. However, there have been some improvements lately, especially on Fenix's side, as they now have 3 wins in their last 4 games. So they need to keep this up in order to climb above the relegation places (they are currently sitting on the 14th place in the relegation table). Liverpool is safe from relegation, and far away from the places that give tickets for the continental competitions, so they don't have too much to play for. However, since their campaign has been quite disappointing so far, I'm sure they would like to improve it as much as they can. And as I mentioned previously, they are a spectacular team, as they have the 4th best attack in the league, and by far onr of thr worst defenses. They will also have a boost today. as their top scorer Rodrigo Aguirre (8 goals this season) is fit to play again. All in all, I expect an entertaining game, as it's usually the case between these two teams (last 4 games between them had a total of 20 goals), so I'm confident they could win this bet with ease. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

El Tanque Sisley - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

All right, we have almost the same situation as last week with Liverpool, but this time it gets even better. Opening odds were 1.80 for a Tanque win, in Sbobet, and now it just rocketed to 2.26... again, with no apparent good reason (just like Wanderers did last week, and just as a reminder, they won 3-2 at Liverpool, despite playing with 2 men less since 1-1). El Tanque are one hell of a solid team this season, one of the most solid teams when playing at home, and one of the 3 teams that are still undefeated on their own stadium. And if we look at the standings, they seem the ones with the most chances of challenging Penarol for the title. They might even be leaders today, if they win and Penarol loses, but that would be a long shot... so even if both of them win, El Tanque will move to second place, and will keep their chances, remaining 2 points behind the leaders. Same story with Liverpool: small squad, not too many classy players, and bad form overall, so don't expect miracles. Once again, bet worth taking because of the huge odds movements, and if you can take -0.25, just increase the stakes. GL!

El Tanque (-0.5 AH) @ 2.29, 3/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Liverpool - Wanderers

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

When I saw the opening odds for this match, I never though I'd make a bet here, but the recent odds movements pull me closer. Liverpool went down from 1.98 to 1.65, and for no clear reason. They were performers last season in the league, but with most of their players gone, and with a very short squad, the 12th place that they are currently on is a fair reflection. Things haven't changed lately, except their schedule, which is now more 'breathable' since their elimination from Copa Sudamericana. They have 2 consecutive lost matches, and their only 3 victories in their last 10 games, came against newly promoted Progreso, and against bottom teams Cerro Largo and Central Espanol. Meanwhile, Wanderers aren't a great team either, but they can be a real pain most of the times. They are also coming from a bad run of form, mostly due to a lot of injuries, but today they will be able to recover some of those players. The only absences will be midfielders Santiago Martinez (9/1) and Diego de Souza (6/0). Otherwise no changes from their standard team, with Maxi Rodriguez also set to start from the first minute. Medium stakes on this bet, for which I see a lot of value (Liverpool might still be slightly better, but not worthy of those odds), and if anyone can get a +0.75, the stakes can be increased. GL!

Wanderers (+0.5 AH) @ 2.37, 3/10
Result: 2-3, WON

River Plate - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Odds are going up a bit here, and that can only make me happy, as I don't see any real reason for that. Neither team is doing a great campaign so far, but if I were to choose the first team that will collapse, this will definitely be Liverpool. They have a very short squad, so their coach rarely gets the chance to rest one or two players. So they took on all their matches so far in the league or in Sudamericana with pretty much the same team, and the same case will be today. And this could be detrimental to them, as fatigue and tiredness will definitely catch up. They played in Argentina during midweek, so they couldn't get too many days of rest. And since their performances haven't been great anyway, I don't expect a higher level of football today. River Plate is a very strong team at home, and we can see that in their recent results: in 2012, they have only lost one game at home... the very first one, back in February, exactly against Liverpool. However, things have changed lately, and Liverpool is nothing like last season's team. Both teams are short on quality, but with a wider squad and an easier schedule, River should nick it here. GL!

River DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Liverpool - Envigado

Copa Sudamericana 2012

I made a bet on Envigado in the first leg as well, and it was lost quite unfairly... Liverpool didn't show much throughout the game, and they managed to snatch a point in the closing minutes. They now have an away goal lead, so they have a slight advantage when it comes to the qualification, but I still wouldn't trust them. As I mentioned previously, they have changed most of their team, and also have a very short squad. So from the beginning of the season, they have used pretty much the same players, as they don't afford to make rotations. The fatigue is due to catch-up sooner or later. They had good results so far, but mainly because they played against weaker opponents, both in the league and in Sudamericana. Once they faced a stronger opponents (Defensor Sporting), they lost. Envigado might not be of the same caliber as Defensor, but they are for sure a strong and solid team. Since in their league they are not in a good position, all their gables go on this match. They come without any injury worries, and also had enough time to rest since their last game, so I expect them to put up a good challenge. It should be a close match, but I don't really see the Uruguayans snatching it. GL!

Envigado (+0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Defensor Sporting - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nice match is expected in Uruguay tonight, as two in-form teams will be facing each other. Both Defensor and Liverpool have 4 points in the first two rounds, so today one of them will be able to continue their good run. When the odds appeared, I thought they were set fairly, but recent odds movements (without serious reasons) give us some nice value on the home win. Defensor have been impressive so far, recording a 2-2 draw with Nacional, and trashing Wanderers 4-0 as visitors. Quite impressive results, as they have definitely marked their title challenge once again. Meanwhile, Liverpool also started the season in good form, and that is quite surprising for me. They have lost a lot of players, and had to start rebuilding their team, so their aspirations were far-fetched. However, they have managed to string a couple of positive results, both in Copa Sudamericana and the local championship. Still, I don't think this will last, as the new players should still be in their accommodation period, and as soon as they will meet a more serious team, they should have some difficulties. And that day should be today, as Defensor Sporting is not an easy team to play against, as they rarely lose. And since they have a more solid and experienced team, I expect them to do well today. I'm going with high stakes, because as I said, I see a lot of value in the home win after the increase in odds. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.28, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Envigado - Liverpool

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Liverpool made a couple of good match against Universitario Sucre, despite having quite a new-formed team, with lots of new faces and very few of their team from last season. They also managed to win in Bolivia, at high altitude, but the main reason for that was Universitario's weakness. They have also changed almost their entire team, with only two players remaining from last season, and about 10 new faces... so it was like taking some random football players, making them play in an international competition. Tonight, Liverpool will meet a much more solid team, so they won't be having an easy time for sure. The only problem might be Envigado's recent form, which has been far from good. They have lost 4 of their 5 matches played in their local championship, and it can't be a good sign when you are losing at home against a team like Deportivo Pasto. However, in Copa Sudamericana they have been doing fine, knocking out Union Comercio from Peru, with a 2-0 home win. It should be more difficult today, but this is the first match where we can see Liverpool's true face (they have postponed their league match from the weekend). The altitude should also go in the home team's favor, and in the end, the three points should remain in Colombia. GL!

Envigado (-0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Liverpool - Universitario

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Normally, the quality gap should be quite high, as the Uruguayan football is at least a class better than the Bolivian one, and for this match we also have a few factors that might make things easier. Liverpool lost some very important players: goalkeeper Juan Castillo (15/0), Pablo Pereira (24/4), midfielder Hernan Figueredo (17/4) and striker Vera (15/13). They have signed some replacements for these players, but they will have a lot of work to do in order to blend into the team. Still, there are a lot of the older players still available, so the coach should have solid ground to start his work once again, especially since he stated that his objective is to build a new team. But even with all this problems, they should have enough quality to blast past a troubled Bolivian side. Compared to last year's team, Universitario is barely recognizable. Only two players from last season are still with the team, as the rest of the players will make their debut with the team tonight. They did have some matches to try and build a solid team, but the results weren't good at all: 1-1-1 in Copa Cine Center del Sur. They are a big unknown at the moment, and they have a lot of catching up to do if they want to get back to their previous performances, so Liverpool should have a big advantage here. GL!

Liverpool (-1.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

River Plate - El Tanque Sisley

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Just one small bet for today, as I can't really find any other solid bets, nor any value. The Clausura tournament in Uruguay is coming to a close, with just 3 matches remaining, and even though Defensor look set to clinch the final spot, there are still plenty of objectives to play for. One of them is the qualification for Copa Sudamericana (as the Libertadores places have already been 'arrested' by the 3 big guns), and we have 4 teams fighting for 3 spots. And today, from those teams, River seems to have the easiest match, as they will take on a team that will just wait patiently for the holidays to come. With 72 points in the relegation table, El Tanque Sisley are safe, even mathematically, and without any other objectives in mind, I don't think they'll give too much in the remaining 3 rounds. Also their game is not impressive at all, so they shouldn't pose many problems to the other teams that are still fighting for something. About River, we can't say they are a really strong team, but they did make some recent improvements lately, winning 3 of their last 5 matches (the other 2 were a draw with Danubio, and a narrow loss to Penarol). A win today will put them back into contention for a Sudamericana place (they are currently 3 points behind the last qualification spot), so they definitely have something to play for. The odds went down a bit for them, but I still think the bet is worth playing, as El Tanque should pose little threat. GL!

River (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Racing - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Small bet on this match, as it is the only one that looks interesting today. This is the first round of the Uruguayan championship, but today we have little action. With the main contenders to the title (Nacional and Penarol) not scheduled to play, we have a clash between two mid-table teams, that still don't know where they are, and what to expect from this season. Liverpool went through a lot of changes in the pre-season, with regards to the playing squad and the technical staff. From what is expected in today's line-up, only 4 players have had an important role to play in the club last season, while the rest of the players are either last season's substitues, or new signings (and these new players are nothing spectacular at first sight). Meanwhile, Racing is going for continuity. They have kept most of their players from last season (when they did a pretty good campaign), and as a result, 8 players from today's expected line-up had a more or less important role in the last year. Therefore, I'm choosing Racing here, as the unity of the group should be a lot stronger than Liverpool's, and the team-play also should have better effects. GL!

Racing (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10

Result: 1-1, HALF LOST

Liverpool Montevideo - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

A great opportunity for Penarol here, to take back the top spot of the standings, as 3 points here would see them tie Nacional on points, while also having a game in hand, so they'll be back in pole-position for the final of the championship. But, same as with Nacional yesterday, the odds for away win are a joke, and even though Penarol is obviously the better team, Liverpool can surprise (and we've seen a big upset last night, when River won 4-2 with Nacional). So I see the over as the best choice again. Liverpool is gunning for a place in a Continental Cup, but those places are quite far away from them, and only 3 points tonight would keep them with hopes. They will try to exploit any tiredness from Penarol's side, and they can be a real torture to any defense, as they have 2 very good strikers (Emiliano Alfaro and Maureen Franco), who, in a good day, can score against any opposition. Penarol might be a bit down after losing at home in Libertadores, and also losing the top spot of the group (which could produce some negative ramifications later in the tournament), but I'm sure they won't let the chance to catch Nacional slip away from their hands. Moreover, the last 7 matches played between Penarol and Liverpool ended with at least 3 goals, so I'm going to stick with this trend. GL!

over 2.75 @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 2-4, WON