Penarol - Deportivo Anzoategui

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Since both of these teams are out of the competition already, this game is pretty much just to complete the schedule. I doubt there is anything real at stake, despite the pre-match talk about leaving the competition with honor. And Penarol are certainly showing that they couldn't care less, as not a single regular player is expected to start tonight's game. Forward Mauro Fernandez can be considered the highest profile player to take on the Venezuelans, but the rest of the team gives me no hope of a positive result. Deportivo Anzoategui aren't much of a team either, and it is still uncertain if they will be using their best available squad or a mixed one.  However, in this match without anything to play for, and against a team playing with a complete squad of reserves/youngsters, it's a bit of a stretch to give out such a big handicap. The Venezuelan team has a bad record away from home, that's true, but Penarol haven't exactly been shining either, and I don't see them winning big (maybe not winning at all). GL!

Anzoategui (+1.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Santos Laguna - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Santos (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON

Racing - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Just as usual, Penarol and Nacional, the two Uruguayan giants, have some ridiculous odds, regardless of the situation. And the same thing is happening today... Penarol are struggling to create effective football, and they haven't won a single match played so far this season. They did manage a draw with one of the forerunners, Defensor Sporting, but when you lose 2-3 with a team like Rentistas, or you get trashed by River, 2-4, then there's obviously a lot of work to do. And the coach is trying, making several changes in the team, but I doubt any winning formula has been found. Of course, their bad form won't last forever, and they'll be back in the title race soon, but it won't be an easy task for them today. Racing is quite a solid team, and they usually pose a lot of problems to the big teams. They have two wins this season, but that is irrelevant, because they won against Miramar and Fenix (bottom teams). However, they are the more gelled team, and they are functioning ok, unlike Penarol. And so many changes are bound to have an effect on the team. It remains to be seen if it's a good or bad effect, but however things may turn out, the line is just too good to miss.

Racing (+1 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10
Result: 2-3, VOID

Juventud - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Another bet from Uruguay, as we have another match that promises a lot. Both teams are still in the fight for glory, even though it's a different kind of glory. Penarol are knee-deep in the title race, 3 points behind Clausura league-leaders Defensor, and one point above them in the Annual table (everything is important here: Penarol won Apertura so if they will also win Clausua they will be automatically crowned champions. If they lose Clausura, they will play in the semi-final with Defensor... if they win the annual table and the semi-final, they will be crowned champions). And for this game, they are putting everything on the line, as they have practiced with a very offensive line-up: two forwards (Zalayeta and Pacheco) and two quick wingers (Estoyanoff and Nunez), plus a move in the defensive line, where offensive minded Aguirregaray will play as a right wing-back. A more offensive formation than usual, as they will be going all out for the title. Juventud, on the other hand, are going for their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, which will be an incredible feat for them. They are tied on points with Wanderers and Fenix for the 6th place, the last that provides continental qualification. And besides this, which should provide extra motivation, they also have a solid home record, with 4-1-2, and just a couple of weeks ago they managed to beat Nacional by 2-0. They certainly won't roll over, and they should try and exploit the spaces that Penarol will leave behind. So I'm confident that we will see several goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 1-5, WON

Penarol - Emelec

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Both teams started the group stage with a win: Penarol won as visitors against Iquique, while Emelec managed a high-profile victory at home against Velez Sarsfield. So there is a lot at stake in this match, and the team that will win could top the group alone, and take a nice advantage when it comes to qualification. So for sure, both teams will be fired-up tonight. Penarol are yet to start their domestic campaign, but they are coming after a good away win, so morale should be at the top. With few changes compared to last year, they maintained their solid base, and keep playing pretty much the same way. That mean an offensive and pleasant style, which always puts a lot of pressure on their opponents. Emelec, on the other hand, has form to their advantage, as they have managed to win all their official games in 2013, including the aforementioned clash with Velez, and their latest match against LDU Quito, as visitors, also resting a few regulars. They are really looking unstoppable at the moment, and they are also showing some very pleasing performances. They press a lot on offense, and they can launch some deadly counter-attacks at any time. Hard to pick a winner under these circumstances, but I'm sure we'll be seeing some goals here. The line seems lower than what I expected, so I'm going for a bet on goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Deportes Iquique - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Iquique produced a huge surprise in the preliminary round, as they eliminated Club de Leon of Mexico, a team that started the round as favorites against the Chileans. And early away goal in Mexico, a couple of 1-1 draws and nerves of steel in the following penalty shootout saw Iquique advance, although they didn't seem to be better than Leon. And I definitely don't see them as being Libertadores material, especially since they are having quite a poor run of form. They did manage to beat Colo Colo last weekend, but that was their first win on the year in 8 matches (3 of them were friendlies). Penarol are yet to start their season, and they can't be too proud of their pre-season results either. But they have a very strong team, and 9 of the regulars that won the Apertura last year are still present. So they have kept the core of the team, and have added a couple of new players that will definitely provide a boost. Iquique also lack experience at this level, so I doubt they will be able to pose any problems tonight. They do play organized, so if Penarol will lack focus this may very well end up in a draw, but normally, quality is on Penarol's side. GL!

Penarol (+0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Wanderers - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

If there's one match where we can expect to see some goals in Uruguay, this must be it. Both teams have been performing admirably, with good attacking lines and offensive style of play. And of course, if that's the case, then the defenses are the ones that have to suffer. The match will be played on Estadio Centenario, so Penarol will be at home (like it's usually the case when they play), so they can just play their usual game, which went so well within the last few weeks (since October, they had just one match which ended with less than 3 goals, and it was against Nacional, ending in a 0-0 draw... all the other games have been won clearly by Penarol). Wanderers have been alternating good performances with poor ones, but they like to play against teams that don't lock up in their own halves. Morale should also be high, since they are coming from 2 consecutive victories, in which they scored 6 goals. One more thing worth mentioning is that the last 5 official games between them and Penarol have ended with a minimum of 3 goals, so this should be a minimum for today as well. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.74, 3/10
Result: 1-2, VOID

Danubio - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Here we have two teams with a lot of offensive potential, but also with rather poor defensive lines, so we can only expect goals here. One more reason for that is that Danubio's new coach is the well known Juan Ramon Carrasco, who always employs offensive tactics. He did say he will try to take a more conservative approach with Danubio, but following their 0-0 draw last week, he is already changing the formation, from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-1-2, which should bring more balls to the area. So they should definitely improve on their 5 goals scored so far in 4 games, and of course, I don't expect too many improvements to the defensive line, which managed to concede 10 goals. Penarol didn't enjoy the best of starts either, as they have just started winning. However, 3 more points today will throw them back in the title race, so victory is a must. Two goals per match is the average scored by them, so if they keep up this trend, we might be in for a nice match, especially since last year both games finished with several goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Penarol - River Plate

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Second round of the Uruguayan league sees Penarol coming after a thriller of a first round. They were leading Fenix, and it looked like they were in control and would have had an easy job. Fenix drew the match before HT, after being 1-3 down, and managed to score the winner in the second half. So Penarol must surely be still hurt after that match, so they should be more focused to get the points today. There's no doubt that they have a much better and superior team compared to most of the other teams in the league, but they will have to work on their defensive game, and on their concentration. River comes after a 1-0 win against newly-promoted Juventud, after a less than impressive match. They have a very young squad, and I don't think they can have too many expectations this season. From the 19-man squad they have selected for the game against Penarol, 10 players are coming from the youth system, and have less than 20 years. Also, a few of them will make their debut today in the first division, while other will play their second match, having debuted last week. So I expect to see a team without experience, which at least tonight, should be an easy prey for the Uruguayan giants. GL!

Penarol (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Atletico Nacional - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Two different motivations for this match. Atletico Nacional can seal their qualification with a win today (even with a draw), and also take a great opportunity to win the group, while Penarol, regardless of how they do in the last two rounds, are already eliminated from the competition, having just 1 point in 4 rounds. So there are totally different moods for these teams. Then, there is also the squad issue: some players of Penarol are injured, while others will be rested in order to have them fresh for the closing stages of the league. In total, 6 players that can be considered regulars have been left in Montevideo, including: the goalkeeper Carini, Zalayeta, Estoyanoff and Dario Rodriguez. And if we keep in mind that coach Da Silva said this match is an extra-match (one that doesn't fit in their schedule anymore), it's clear there isn't too much motivation or hope for the team. Atletico is going through a bad moment in the local league, but that hasn't put a dent in their Libertadores run... They showed great moments in this competition, being still undefeated and having 12 goals scored in 4 games. In the league, they are on a 7 match run without a win, but as I said, here they should have a different motivation, and a full team is expected, including striker Pabon, who returns from an injury. The handicap is set about right, but if Nacional returns to their regular Libertadores form, they should have no problem with a 'damaged' Penarol. GL!

Atletico (-1 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

U de Chile - Penarol

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

Again, this will be a match that no one will be happy to lose. U de Chile needs the 3 points in order to move to second place of the group, while Penarol needs the win in order to give some balance to the group, and keep their qualification hopes alive. The Chileans, who last year have won the Copa Sudamericana without a single loss, aren't the same team as in 2011, but they are still a tough opponent for everybody, and lately they have showed some great form, especially at home, and here I'm talking about the 5-1 trashing of Godoy Cruz, a much better team defensive-wise than Penarol. Also, in their last 6 matches they have scored 18 goals, with Ruidiaz and Rodriguez in great form, so I think it's fair to expect another great match from them. Penarol just can't sit and wait in defense, because a point will not help them with anything, so they too have to go in attack and look for goals, leaving some spaces behind. I'm expecting a great match to watch, and if everything goes as planned, we could be in for a real goal-fest. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.79, 5/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Penarol - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Both these teams started bad this Libertadores campaign, but unlike U de Chile, Penarol didn't manage to recover. So, after the undeserved loss in Argentina, Penarol went on to be trashed at home by a super Atletico Nacional, 0-4, thus making this match a do-or-die for them. They changed their coach meanwhile, Gregorio Perez leaving the team in favor of Jorge da Silva, and in the previous match with him at the helm, they showed some improvements in their offensive play, but also a slight decrease in defense, as they've beaten Cerro Largo by 4-2, coming from behind twice. Of course, U de Chile will be another story than Cerro Largo, but one thing is sure: Penarol has to attack, otherwise they are out of this competition. And attack means leaving spaces for counter-attacks, an area in which U de Chile usually excels. But a win would also work wonders for the Chileans, as they are also in a fragile position in the group. That is why I expect an entertaining match, with both teams attacking and trying to take advantage of any spaces that they can find. So goals should come. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Penarol - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

When the market first opened for this match, I wanted to skip it, as prices around 1.70 for a home win were a big no-no for me. But recent odds movement made this bet more and more appealing, as we now have a -0.25 at a better price than the opening odds for a win, so let's try this. It's true that Penarol lost several key players during the summer break, while Atletico Nacional invested a lot of money in new players, and this has paid out in the first match, dominating U de Chile and taking a clear win. However, Penarol is a bit weaker than last year (when they played the final of Libertadores), but I still rate them as a solid enough team, and home factor is very important in Libertadores. Besides, they've made a good match in Argentina in the first round, especially in the first half, missing some good chances, and finally making a costly mistake in the second half, thus losing the match. Today, everyone is focused to change their fortunes in the group, and for me, the Colombians still need to prove they can also perform outside of their home country. They have good quality and experience up-front, with Zalayeta, Estoyanoff and Maxi Perez (in case that Mora won't be fit), and they should make their home advantage count, with a small margin for error in case of a draw. GL!

Penarol (-0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 0-4, LOST

Penarol - Fenix

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Well, it's a pretty rare moment to see Penarol playing at home and being priced around 1.50, so let's try to make a profit out of this. For the moment, there appears to be no squad problems for Penarol, as the few doubtful players seem to have recovered well. And with no players called-up for the national team, Penarol is expected to repeat the same line-up that played against River Plate, 2 rounds ago, in a match they won with 4-0 (River was the league leader at the time). And besides that match, Penarol has found some great form recently, being undefeated so far in the championship, with 3 consecutive wins. Fenix has been going through some ups and downs recently, as after winning 1-0 away at Defensor Sporting they failed to win any of their following 3 matches, losing at home to Cerro, 0-3, before drawing with Racing and Wanderers. Penarol's form and overall superior quality should see them through this match, as I expect another easy win for the Carboneros. GL!

Penarol (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 3/10

Result: 2-1, VOID

Rentistas - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Penarol comes after a week full of happiness, as they celebrated 120 years of existence, but all of that could be useless unless they deliver a solid performance tonight, to end a grandiose week in their existence. Recently, they have shown that regardless of who the coach is, the team is working just as well. They are undefeated in this championship, and the transition from Aguirre to Gregorio Perez only cost the team a draw, followed by 2 consecutive wins, against former front runners of the league: Danubio and River. Rentistas have only won 2 matches so far, and for tonight, even though they are considered to be the home team, the match will be played on Estadio Centenario (Penarol's home ground), so that advantage fades away. They usually keep the scoreline low, but they played mostly against mid-low teams, the only real tests being the matches against Defensor and Danubio, both lost 0-1. However, Penarol should be better than that, and I expect several goals, to end their festive week in high fashion. GL!

Penarol (-1.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 0-3, WON

Racing Montevideo - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Terrible odds for Penarol, so I'll try to take a bit of advantage on the home team. Penarol didn't really impress me so far this season. It's true they are undefeated so far in the season, but their only good match was the 3-0 win against Bella Vista. Otherwise, they won a Tanque team that was still finding it's pace, won with Defensor, but had to struggle for most of the match, and also made a draw away at Cerrito. The results are good, but the performance on the field... not so much. And this was all in the Aguirre era. The coach left on Monday for Qatar, and Gregorio has been reinstated as coach, after a long break. Has been a heavy week for Penarol, and I'm not sure if the players have already coped with the stress. Also, Gregorio had only 5 days to work with the team, and that doesn't seem like too much time to impose his tactical ideas. Racing have been dissapointing so far, without a single win, and also with an awful performance last round, when despite leading at Nacional and having an extra-man, they still managed to lose the match. However, they are bound to have a reaction soon, and they are traditionally a tough team at home for Penarol: 6 games were played in the last 10 years, with Penarol winning 2 (both with 1-0). In the recent history, Racing won the last 2 games, with 2-1, and I hope that can motivate the players and make a good match. GL!

Racing (+1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Penarol - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Second derby of this season in the Uruguayan first league, but the first between the teams that look like serious title contenders. Both teams started the season in style, being undefeated in the first 3 rounds, and although Penarol has a 2 points advantage, Defensor has the slight 'advantage' of having already played Nacional, the other big name of Uruguay. Penarol looked good in attack, cunning, and with deadly counter-attacks (except last match, that ended 0-0, but was played on a soaked pitch), but also their defense looked vulnerable at times, despite not conceding a goal yet, and a classy goalscorer like Risso could take advantage of that. And the defensive worries will surely get bigger today, for both teams. Penarol will miss defender Alejandro Gonzalez and defensive midfielder Nicolas Freitas. Meanwhile, Defensor continues with it's run of injured players, a run that started last tournament, and is still going on now. In the last few months, there are around 6-7 serious injuries for Defensor, and all of them in the defensive section. So, coach Repetto will have to dig even deeper to find a decent defensive line, one that it's been a long time since they showed their usual security. Zalayeta and Risso are the main offensive weapons for these 2 teams, and I'm quite sure they'll try to take as much advantage as possible from these weakened defenses. I expect some goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Penarol - Racing Montevideo

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Everything about this match seems to be very similar to yesterday's Nacional - Rampla Juniors. The home team is one of the Uruguayan giants, but just like Nacional, they have other things on their mind. Penarol put the Clausura last on their priority list, as they made the final of Copa Libertadores, and all their energies and focus went in that direction. For quite some rounds now, they have fielded alternative teams, with few or none of the regulars. Today will be no exception, as all of their regulars who played in Brazil earlier this week, will be watching the match from the stands. The only difference between today's line-up and the previous ones will be tht today there will be even more youth players, as the coach decided to test them for future seasons. So, a weakened Penarol side, even more than usual. And just like yesterday's match, the visitors do have something to play for. They need at least one point to be sure of remainng in the Primera Division, otherwise they could be forced to play a decider gainst Central Espanol, should they win aganst Danubio. But since a point is very much within their reach, as Penarol's youngsters should pose too much of a problem, I'm quite sure Racing will go out looking for some points, rather than waiting to see how Central is doing. GL!

Racing (+0.5 AH) @ 1.73, 3/10

Result: 0-1, WON

Defensor Sporting - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Big derby tonight, between 2 of the best teams in Uruguay, in a match with a lot of importance for both teams, as whoever loses, is totally out of the title race in Clausura. But, since Penarol has also managed to qualify for the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores, they have shifted their objectives, especially since after their last 2 defeats, the title seems to be out of reach. And since on Thursday they will welcome Velez Sarsfield on their stadium, for the first leg of the semi-final, they will use a mixed team tonight, with a lot of players that aren't regulars and that haven't played too much this season. It will be more or less the same team that played last weekend, and that got trashed at home, 1-4, by River Plate. And if a lowly team like River can deliver such a beat-down as visitors, I imagine Defensor Sporting being more than able to do the same. They are also fighting for the title, and a chance to win it without having to play a final (they won the Apertura, but if they don't also win the Clausura, they'll have to settle the title with Nacional in a final of the league). Full squad for them tonight, and I expect them to be motivated, as even if they are unlikely to reach the first place, Penarol is certainly the team everyone wants to beat. Besides, the 3 points from tonight could help them take top spot in the aggregate table, so they have it all to play for. GL!

Defensor Sporting DNB @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 0-0, VOID

Liverpool Montevideo - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

A great opportunity for Penarol here, to take back the top spot of the standings, as 3 points here would see them tie Nacional on points, while also having a game in hand, so they'll be back in pole-position for the final of the championship. But, same as with Nacional yesterday, the odds for away win are a joke, and even though Penarol is obviously the better team, Liverpool can surprise (and we've seen a big upset last night, when River won 4-2 with Nacional). So I see the over as the best choice again. Liverpool is gunning for a place in a Continental Cup, but those places are quite far away from them, and only 3 points tonight would keep them with hopes. They will try to exploit any tiredness from Penarol's side, and they can be a real torture to any defense, as they have 2 very good strikers (Emiliano Alfaro and Maureen Franco), who, in a good day, can score against any opposition. Penarol might be a bit down after losing at home in Libertadores, and also losing the top spot of the group (which could produce some negative ramifications later in the tournament), but I'm sure they won't let the chance to catch Nacional slip away from their hands. Moreover, the last 7 matches played between Penarol and Liverpool ended with at least 3 goals, so I'm going to stick with this trend. GL!

over 2.75 @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 2-4, WON