Cruzeiro - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Tried over-bets for a couple of times in this seasons’ Libertadores, but I failed every time. However, this time I’m even more confident than before. Apparently, U de Chile came to Brazil to attack. They can’t really rely on their defense anyway, since it’s been rather shaky and allowed a lot of spaces and goals recently, with 8 goals conceded in the last 5 matches. And that was against some rather average opponents… they could really be put under pressure by Cruzeiro’s top class forwards, as long as they don’t get lazy. U de Chile will be using Gutierrez, Rubio and Lorenzetti in attack, and they can really hurt any defense, provided they get enough balls. And with them in the first team, it’s a pretty clear sign that they came here to play, not to sit and wait in defense. Cruzeiro should get enough chances themselves, so normally we should have quite a show in this match. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.90, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Newell's - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

We may have been used to seeing U de Chile shinning on the field, but those times are unfortunately long gone. What we have today is a totally different team than what we had last year, as a lot of their key players have left (almost half of the team), and the magic-maker coach Sampaoli has also left the team. So, right now we have just a shadow of that team, without any clear objective. And we can see the effects that those changes have made: they are just 7th in the league after 6 rounds (not a big deal, as they are just 3 points behind the leaders), and have recorded some rather average results in Libertadores. They won against Lara in the opening match, 2-0, which was a normal result, nothing extraordinary, but in their second game their other face was shown, as they were just pushed aside by a very troubled Olimpia. The result aside, U de Chile really put in a tragic performance, showing lack of ideas, inability to score and some defensive gaps. Keep in mind Olimpia was/is in quite a deep crisis, losing at home to newly-promoted General Diaz, and snatching a draw after being outplayed by Rubio Nu. Newells, like 75% of the Argentinian teams, are a solid side, especially when it comes to playing at home. They've soundly beaten Olimpia by 3-1, and what's really bothering me is their loss at Lara, 1-2, which was most likely an accident. However, that fares well for this bet, as they should be pumped-up for this match, looking to get their campaign back on track. U de Chile might have posed some problems last year, but now, I barely give them any chances to come away with something from Rosario. The line is very good, and it's definitely bound to drop. GL!

Newell's (-0.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

Olimpia - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Olimpia is still in the middle of an institutional crisis, with results stalling, with unpaid salaries and with the president expected to resign within the next few days. So it must be hard for the players to focus in this conditions, but they have all vowed to put away those worries, and to put in a committed performance against the Chileans. And their coach apparently also wants to recover from last week's 1-3 defeat at Newells, and will employ a much more offensive formation, so we should see the usual attacking Olimpia, with capable players like Fredy Bareriro, Carlos Ferreyra and Salgueiro. U de Chile isn't the same team that enchanted us with it's football in 2011, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. And while their offensive power is not what it used to be, their defense is even poorer, as they often make serious mistakes, and allow unnecessary spaces at the back. And some recent injuries are what actually convinced me to take this bet. U de Chile will miss key defenders Eugenio Mena, Osvaldo Gonzalez and Waldo Ponce. The bad part is that they will also miss offensive midfielder Luciano Civelli. But adding up the pros and cons, and judging by both teams' style of play, I expect to see some goals here, in what should be an entertaining match. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Santos - U de Chile

Recopa Sudamericana 2012

In the first leg, I went for goals, as I was expecting a committed performance from both teams. And I was so wrong... Santos did play well, and had several good chances to score, including a missed penalty in the first half. But the goal never came, thus the match ending 0-0. What we can take from that match is that Santos played much better, as visitors, and U de Chile showed little of the football that charmed us in the last 2 seasons. So I won't be getting my hopes up today. It is very difficult to play in Brazil, and Santos is a top class team. With all the regular and star players ready to go, I'm expecting a very good line-up for the Brazilians, as they should dominate the game. It won't be very easy, I admit that, so don't expect a trashing, but the victory should come eventually. U de Chile should still have a good offense, so it won't be a surprise if they score, but their defensive line has shown a lot of inconsistency lately: in their last 10 games in all competitions, they have only managed to win 3, all of them in the local league. And in those last 10 matches, they have indeed managed to score 17 goals, but they have also conceded 16. Even so, I won't be taking the over again, as I'm expecting Santos's force to overpower the Chileans. GL!

Santos (-0.5 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

U de Chile - Santos

Recopa Sudamericana 2012

When you see this two team playing against each other, you can only think of one thing: goals! Even though U de Chile has slightly changed compared to the last season, they are still adepts of the same style of play, which means attacking play. They always try to press and to get the ball forward, and their counter attacks are also deadly. That's why it comes as no surprise that in the local league they have the best offense, with 44 goals scored in 17 matches, 13 goals more than the team with the second best offense. And while we can not compare Chilean teams with Santos, the Brazilian defense is not brilliant either, so they might allow some goals tonight. Santos is playing usually a bit more defensively, but with their defense, that's not making a lot of difference. That why we can see they recorded overs in their last 6 matches, and in 5 of them both teams scored. The thing with them is that they have excellent individual players, who can scored from basically nothing: Neymar, Ganso, Miralles, etc. So I expect both teams to continue with their recent trends, and normally, this match should be overish, with both teams getting on the score sheet. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Deportivo Quito - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Deportivo's home record regarding conceded goals might put people off this bet, since the Ecuadorians are yet to concede a goal in Quito in the Copa Libertadores. However, this should change tonight, as they will play against a totally different team than what they experienced so far (Chivas played with several reserves, while Defensor and Velez are known for not being ultra-offensive teams). U de Chile come into this match in a great moment, as they have won their last 11 consecutive matches in all competitions, also scoring 31 goals in the process. They really enjoy playing offensive football, and when they attack, they usually do it with 5 or 6 men. Also, they can be deadly on counter attacks. Deportivo of course has the advantage here, mostly because of the high altitude from Quito, with which the Chileans aren't very accustomed, and they also like to play offensive football at home. Alustiza is placed second in the goalscorer standings, so for sure he'll be the man to watch tonight for Deportivo. U de Chile need to make a strong match, as they can't rely solely on the return leg (and if Deportivo wins tonight, they have already proved they know how to defend as well), so an away goal should be crucial. I expect both teams to score. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 4-1, WON

U de Chile - Penarol

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

Again, this will be a match that no one will be happy to lose. U de Chile needs the 3 points in order to move to second place of the group, while Penarol needs the win in order to give some balance to the group, and keep their qualification hopes alive. The Chileans, who last year have won the Copa Sudamericana without a single loss, aren't the same team as in 2011, but they are still a tough opponent for everybody, and lately they have showed some great form, especially at home, and here I'm talking about the 5-1 trashing of Godoy Cruz, a much better team defensive-wise than Penarol. Also, in their last 6 matches they have scored 18 goals, with Ruidiaz and Rodriguez in great form, so I think it's fair to expect another great match from them. Penarol just can't sit and wait in defense, because a point will not help them with anything, so they too have to go in attack and look for goals, leaving some spaces behind. I'm expecting a great match to watch, and if everything goes as planned, we could be in for a real goal-fest. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.79, 5/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Penarol - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Both these teams started bad this Libertadores campaign, but unlike U de Chile, Penarol didn't manage to recover. So, after the undeserved loss in Argentina, Penarol went on to be trashed at home by a super Atletico Nacional, 0-4, thus making this match a do-or-die for them. They changed their coach meanwhile, Gregorio Perez leaving the team in favor of Jorge da Silva, and in the previous match with him at the helm, they showed some improvements in their offensive play, but also a slight decrease in defense, as they've beaten Cerro Largo by 4-2, coming from behind twice. Of course, U de Chile will be another story than Cerro Largo, but one thing is sure: Penarol has to attack, otherwise they are out of this competition. And attack means leaving spaces for counter-attacks, an area in which U de Chile usually excels. But a win would also work wonders for the Chileans, as they are also in a fragile position in the group. That is why I expect an entertaining match, with both teams attacking and trying to take advantage of any spaces that they can find. So goals should come. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Atletico Nacional - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Main reason for this bet is the low line, which seems to be a bit underestimated by the bookies, especially if we take into consideration both teams' style of play, and recent results. About U de Chile there should be little to say: they are the reigning champions of Copa Sudamericana - which they won in style, after some exceptional displays of football - have a very good team and coach, and they have covered pretty well all the free places, especially in attack where they were expected to have some problems, as they no longer have Rivarola, Vargas and Canales. But they managed to make two transfers that seem to be very good, with both Junior Fernandez and Ruidiaz scoring at their debut. Pedro Morales, from Dinamo Zagreb is also a good offensive addition. Atletico Nacional was also playing attractive football last season (for Colombian standards, at least), scoring a lot but also conceding easily. This season they are also on a goal-scoring spree, with 8 goals scored in 3 matches (2 matches actually, as they lost 0-1 in their only away game), with play maker Pabon definitely being the man to watch, as he scored 4 of those 8 goals. Altitude is just around 1500 meters, so it shouldn't affect the Chileans too much, and they should be able to play their game. Goals will come, hopefully. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 5/10

Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST

U de Chile - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-final

I was on the over in the first leg too, and even though the match ended as 1-1, the bet was right, as the flow was very good, and there were a lot of missed goal-chances. So I'm going to repeat that bet. Vasco needs to attack from the start, in order to take back the away goal that U de Chile got in the first game. The Brazilians are going for this match full strength, with all their players, showing that they really want this title. And with their attack working great most of the times, I'm confident they will get at least a goal. From there, it will all be up to U de Chile to decide the game. They have been compared to Barcelona, and indeed, they're style of play is very good. Always going for goals, always looking to get the ball forward... so don't expect them to sit back and wait, despite the slight advantage they have due to their away goal. And also, Vasco's defensive line is far from being solid, so a couple of fast and well placed balls will really prove troublesome. I'm expecting a very entertaining match, and this time I think we'll see goals, as revenge for the missed chances from last weeks. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Vasco da Gama - U de Chile

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-finals

Probably the best, and the most offensive teams in the competition will face each other in Brazil, in what promises to be a cracking match. Vasco's coach Borges used reserve teams in the first legs so far, but those matches were played away from home. Not this time though, and Borges will send a full strength team, in order to try and clinch the qualification, so maybe he could rest a few players in the second leg. Diego Souza will miss the match for the Brazilians, but they have plenty of fire-power in their team, so I doubt that his absence should be an issue. Meanwhile, U de Chile is probably playing the best football in this edition of Copa Sudamericana, and many have compared their play to Barcelona. 14 goals scored, in 8 matches looks pretty nice, and gives us hopes for a goal-fest for this match, especially if we pair those numbers with Vasco's 17 goals scored in 6 games. The Chileans have rested their key players during the weekend, so they should all be fit, and I'm counting on their usual strategy of attacking, and trying to out-score their oponents. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Nacional Montevideo - U de Chile

Copa Sudamericana

Last week, for the first leg, I have decided to skip the over in favor of the home win, and it turned out to be a very good idea, but this time I fancy the over and I'm not passing on it again. Nacional showed a lot of improvements in the last round, and their new system with 3 forwards looked great. It's true, they did play against Cerro Largo, one of the weaker teams from the Uruguayan league, but that shouldn't minimize Nacional's merits. And Gallardo will repeat the same tactics tonight, since he needs a victory of at least 1-0 to force the tie in extra-time. The first result is dangerous for the Chileans, and U de Chile knows that very well, so I don't expect them to sit back and hope to keep the 0-0. It's not their style anyway, so I expect them to push forward, with caution of course, and get the goal that could kill the match. And they are also very dangerous on the counter attacks, and Nacional is still not impressive defensive-wise. They haven't conceded last match, but Cerro Largo put them little to none problems, which shouldn't be the case with U de Chile who have extended their winning run to 7 matches in all competitions, and to 9 in their league. I'm expecting goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10

Result: 0-2, CANCELLED 

The match was stopped in the 52nd minute, after one of the linesman got hit by a paper roll thrown from the stands.

U de Chile - Nacional

Copa Sudamericana

First instinct here was to go medium stake for the over, and the reasons for that (regarding Nacional) can be found in one of my numerous picks against them. However, reading some latest news made me change my mind, and go from the over to the home win (hope it won't be an idiotic decision). So, Nacional could find it's pace yet, coach Marcelo Gallardo seems to be powerless to change too much in the team, and they defense is especially poor, although they have shown some signs of improvements lately. They have conceded 8 goals in 5 matches (have the third worst defense in the league), and the only solid team that they played against was Defensor Sporting. The rest were usual mid-table teams. Now, with U de Chile, it should be a totally different story. They are the best team in Chile at the moment, and are in demonic form, having 7 consecutive victories in the league, having score 18 goals in those 7 matches, while conceding only 2. That is very impressive, and they are in one of their best moments of their history, so a qualification to the next round of Sudamericana will prolong the euphoria. Gallardo has been coming under heavy-fire after their last draw with Danubion, and he is also expected to rest one or two players tonight, taking my mind off the over. U de Chile can definitely win this, and I'm pretty confident they will. GL!

U de Chile (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 1-0, WON