Nacional - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

As you are probably well aware, last week I’ve had a very solid bet, full of confidence, against Nacional Montevideo. And unfortunately, that bet went to the crapper, after Atletico Nacional received a red card in the first minute of the game. So it would be pointless talking about that game, even though it is worth mentioning that despite having a man-down from the start, the Colombians were still able to recover from a 0-2 deficit and tie the game. Tonight, Nacional will still rest most of their regulars, as they only have 1 point in the group, and are focusing on the local league. Furthermore, from last week’s team, they will add 3 more youngsters, as 3 players are forbidden by the law to play in Uruguay. And on top of all this, their form couldn’t get much worse than this, as they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games.

Atletico will use a similar squad to last week’s one, and there should definitely be a revenge factor here, as the 2-2 in Colombia against a team of youngsters certainly doesn’t sit well with them. They also need to keep in touch with the leaders, Gremio, and their main rivals for qualification, Newell’s Old Boys. All in all, I have pretty much the same confidence as last week, and this time we also have a nice line. GL!

Atletico DNB @ 1.84, 5/10 
Result: 0-1, WON

Atletico Nacional - Nacional Montevideo

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

I have quite a lot of confidence in this bet, despite the rather big handicap line. Nacional has traveled to Colombia with a complete B-squad, as none of their regular players was included in the trip. They are fighting for the title of Clausura, and they are also in a neck-in-neck battle for the Aggregate table, so their focus is shifting towards the local league. Furthermore, they also had to go through a 13 hour-trip from Montevideo to Medellin, so a lot of fatigue is expected for them. Atletico Nacional is bound to treat this match seriously, as they still have enough changes to qualify to the next stage (3rd place with 3 points, but will play against Gremio at home). They are also in red hot form, being 8-0-2 in the league and 4-1 at home. Plus, they've also beaten Newell's Old Boys in Medellin, so they definitely mean business. The odds are bound to drop even further, but as I said, I have a lot of confidence here, and this bet is good to take up until 1.90. GL!

Atletico (-1.5 AH) @ 2.13, 5/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Atletico Nacional - Sao Paulo

Copa Sudamericana 2013, Quarter-finals

It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

There was no time for a preview.

over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON

Inti Gas - Atletico Nacional

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

We'll finally have some action in these hot summer days, as Copa Sudamericana will be underway tonight, with a few matches that are at least interesting. So let's start it in fashion, by going against the public and the bookies. Atletico Nacional have been set as strong favorites (as far as away favorites are concerned), and I agree that they are the better team. But in this first leg, I don't think that matters too much. First of all, they will be playing at high altitude, much higher than they are used to (Medellin  is set at 1500 meters, and today they will play at over 2700), and even though it won't have the effect it usually has over the lowlands team, they are sure to feel it to some extent. Besides, for different reasons, in today's expected line-up they are missing several players that had key roles in their previous campaign: defenders Calle (15/0), Bernal (17/1) and Valencia (13/1), midfielder Torres (17/4) and forward Juan Pablo Angel (18/6). I'm expecting both teams to take a rather cautious approach to this game, as I'm sure both of them will be satisfied with a draw. And with the current odds, it's definitely worth to try a bet. GL!

Inti Gas (+0.5 AH) @ 2.06, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Velez - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

Kind of unexpected result last week in Colombia, with Velez winning 1-0. I knew it wouldn't be so easy for the home side, but this result came as a real surprise... also, I was expecting a lot more goals, but hopefully, they will make up for that tonight. Having lost at home, Atletico have only on choice left today: to attack and to win. Very offensive formation is expected, and we have seen the damage that the Colombians can do, even away from home (scored 4 goals to both Penarol and Godoy Cruz). And with the attacking, Velez surely won't just sit and wait. They are really strong when playing at home, and they know that this 1-0 is a dangerous result, so they'll try to look for a goal as well, especially since the Colombian defense isn't looking very solid lately. And they should also find plenty of spaces if Atletico comes to attack. The previous match had a lot of goal scoring chances, including a missed penalty by Velez, so if today we'll have the same scenario, this bet is looking good (with a bit more luck than last week, of course). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Atletico Nacional - Velez

Copa Libertadores 2012, Round of 16

This match should be a very entertaining show, so I'm really surprised to see such a low goal line (I was honestly expecting to see a high 2.75, with a fair 2.5), therefore I can't see past this match, seeing some nice value in this bet. Atletico Nacional blitzed through their first matches in the group stage, making them appear like strong favorites to go all the way. Their attacking power can not be disputed, as they have the most goals scored in this competition so far (16, without playing against Bolivian or Peruvian teams). However, they didn't win their group because the defense began to fail in the last matches, allowing 8 goals against them (6 of them were only from Godoy, although they did manage to also score 6 against the Argentinians). Normally, Velez should be much better than Godoy, and we can see that even from the standings, so they should have more chances to win against Atletico. However, to do that in Colombia won't be that easy, and the hosts know they need a solid win in order to keep their chances to qualify to the next round. However, their defensive issues should provide Velez with plenty of chances to snatch at least a goal. Poor defense and an awesome attack, against a solid team that knows how to exploit spaces, can mean only one thing: goals! GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 5/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Atletico Nacional - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Two different motivations for this match. Atletico Nacional can seal their qualification with a win today (even with a draw), and also take a great opportunity to win the group, while Penarol, regardless of how they do in the last two rounds, are already eliminated from the competition, having just 1 point in 4 rounds. So there are totally different moods for these teams. Then, there is also the squad issue: some players of Penarol are injured, while others will be rested in order to have them fresh for the closing stages of the league. In total, 6 players that can be considered regulars have been left in Montevideo, including: the goalkeeper Carini, Zalayeta, Estoyanoff and Dario Rodriguez. And if we keep in mind that coach Da Silva said this match is an extra-match (one that doesn't fit in their schedule anymore), it's clear there isn't too much motivation or hope for the team. Atletico is going through a bad moment in the local league, but that hasn't put a dent in their Libertadores run... They showed great moments in this competition, being still undefeated and having 12 goals scored in 4 games. In the league, they are on a 7 match run without a win, but as I said, here they should have a different motivation, and a full team is expected, including striker Pabon, who returns from an injury. The handicap is set about right, but if Nacional returns to their regular Libertadores form, they should have no problem with a 'damaged' Penarol. GL!

Atletico (-1 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Penarol - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

When the market first opened for this match, I wanted to skip it, as prices around 1.70 for a home win were a big no-no for me. But recent odds movement made this bet more and more appealing, as we now have a -0.25 at a better price than the opening odds for a win, so let's try this. It's true that Penarol lost several key players during the summer break, while Atletico Nacional invested a lot of money in new players, and this has paid out in the first match, dominating U de Chile and taking a clear win. However, Penarol is a bit weaker than last year (when they played the final of Libertadores), but I still rate them as a solid enough team, and home factor is very important in Libertadores. Besides, they've made a good match in Argentina in the first round, especially in the first half, missing some good chances, and finally making a costly mistake in the second half, thus losing the match. Today, everyone is focused to change their fortunes in the group, and for me, the Colombians still need to prove they can also perform outside of their home country. They have good quality and experience up-front, with Zalayeta, Estoyanoff and Maxi Perez (in case that Mora won't be fit), and they should make their home advantage count, with a small margin for error in case of a draw. GL!

Penarol (-0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 0-4, LOST

Atletico Nacional - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Main reason for this bet is the low line, which seems to be a bit underestimated by the bookies, especially if we take into consideration both teams' style of play, and recent results. About U de Chile there should be little to say: they are the reigning champions of Copa Sudamericana - which they won in style, after some exceptional displays of football - have a very good team and coach, and they have covered pretty well all the free places, especially in attack where they were expected to have some problems, as they no longer have Rivarola, Vargas and Canales. But they managed to make two transfers that seem to be very good, with both Junior Fernandez and Ruidiaz scoring at their debut. Pedro Morales, from Dinamo Zagreb is also a good offensive addition. Atletico Nacional was also playing attractive football last season (for Colombian standards, at least), scoring a lot but also conceding easily. This season they are also on a goal-scoring spree, with 8 goals scored in 3 matches (2 matches actually, as they lost 0-1 in their only away game), with play maker Pabon definitely being the man to watch, as he scored 4 of those 8 goals. Altitude is just around 1500 meters, so it shouldn't affect the Chileans too much, and they should be able to play their game. Goals will come, hopefully. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 5/10

Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST