Copa Sudamericana 2013, Quarter-finals
It worked the first time, so why not give it another try now, since nothing has been decided yet in this round. Sao Paulo took the lead in the first leg, but it's a fragile 3-2 lead, and Atletico are aiming high, since they have two away goals scored. So neither team can afford to sit back and wait, especially Sao Paulo, who's defense isn't one of their strong suits (within their last 4 games, there have been a total of 20 goals scored). And this time around, unlike the previous round, they are using pretty much the best squad available: we'll see on the pitch both Luis Fabiano and Aloisio (the two of them scored a total of 16 goals throughout the year), along Jadson and Antonio Carlos, who scored 2 goals in the first leg. Ganso is the only big absence, due to his suspension. So it's a rather offensive team, and I expect Sao Paulo to play their game, especially since the altitude in Medellin isn't too high. Atletico are even less likely to sit back, because they are behind, and they need at least a goal. They proved in the first leg to be a match for the Brazilians, so the home field should provide a boost. If we have a quick goal, this could turn into a goal-fiesta... this line is just too good to miss. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
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Showing posts with label Sao Paulo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sao Paulo. Show all posts
Nov 7, 2013
Nov 2, 2013
Sao Paulo - Atletico Nacional
Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
There was no time for a preview.
over 2 goals @ 1.83, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
May 9, 2013
Atletico MG - Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16
This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON
This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON
Apr 5, 2013
The Strongest - Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
In this group, Atletico MG has sealed their qualification, with 4 consecutive wins, leaving them with 12 points at the top of the group, 8 points more than their followers with two rounds remaining. But everything remains wide open when it comes to second place, as all 3 teams (Sao Paulo, Arsenal and The Strongest) are separated by just one points. So for sure, all teams will do their best to get as many points as possible. The Bolivians have the high altitude to their advantage, but that's pretty much it. They don't have star players, they don't have a strong team... but the altitude alone is enough to put serious problems to even the best teams. However, there is always a way around that, as we've seen in the last round, when they were defeated at home 1-2 by Atletico MG. And this time, their opponents will be Sao Paulo, who desperately needs the win. They have the players they need to achieve such a results (Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Ganso, etc), and they should also have the motivation. With The Strongest also having a good shot at qualification, I'm expecting a pretty nice match, with plenty of goals, as is usually the case at high altitude. And even if we look at Sao Paulo's record alone, the results seem encouraging: they lost 3-4 this year against Bolivar, while in their previous matches against The Strongest in Bolivia, they won 4-1 in 2003, and drew 3-3 in 2005. All of the The Strongest's matches so far have ended with 3 goals, so I think we're going for a sure thing here. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-WON
In this group, Atletico MG has sealed their qualification, with 4 consecutive wins, leaving them with 12 points at the top of the group, 8 points more than their followers with two rounds remaining. But everything remains wide open when it comes to second place, as all 3 teams (Sao Paulo, Arsenal and The Strongest) are separated by just one points. So for sure, all teams will do their best to get as many points as possible. The Bolivians have the high altitude to their advantage, but that's pretty much it. They don't have star players, they don't have a strong team... but the altitude alone is enough to put serious problems to even the best teams. However, there is always a way around that, as we've seen in the last round, when they were defeated at home 1-2 by Atletico MG. And this time, their opponents will be Sao Paulo, who desperately needs the win. They have the players they need to achieve such a results (Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Ganso, etc), and they should also have the motivation. With The Strongest also having a good shot at qualification, I'm expecting a pretty nice match, with plenty of goals, as is usually the case at high altitude. And even if we look at Sao Paulo's record alone, the results seem encouraging: they lost 3-4 this year against Bolivar, while in their previous matches against The Strongest in Bolivia, they won 4-1 in 2003, and drew 3-3 in 2005. All of the The Strongest's matches so far have ended with 3 goals, so I think we're going for a sure thing here. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-WON
Mar 15, 2013
Arsenal Sarandi - Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage
This match can pretty much sway the qualification in favor of the Brazilians. If Sao Paulo wins, Arsenal will remain with 1 point in the table, 6 behind the Brazilians, so it will be game over for them (and Sao Paulo will qualify, because I don't see The Strongest making up 4 points in the last 2 games). So the only chance that the Argentinians have right now is to win today, equal them on points, and hope that Sao Paulo fails in Bolivia (they've already played there). So I don't really see them waiting for an opponent's mistake, and they should be going out looking for the goal. Sao Paulo isn't a team to sit back in defense, so I'm sure they'll go out trying to control the game as well. They have loads of quality in their squad (Rogerio Ceni, Denilson, Ganso, Jadson or Luis Fabiano), and those players are able to create danger out of nothing. And since Arsenal's defense isn't anything special, they should have their fair chances. Their last match ended with just 1-1, but more goals could have come easily. Let's hope that they'll improve on their finishing and provide a nice match. Line is good at 2.25, as we have a small insurance in case of another 1-1. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
This match can pretty much sway the qualification in favor of the Brazilians. If Sao Paulo wins, Arsenal will remain with 1 point in the table, 6 behind the Brazilians, so it will be game over for them (and Sao Paulo will qualify, because I don't see The Strongest making up 4 points in the last 2 games). So the only chance that the Argentinians have right now is to win today, equal them on points, and hope that Sao Paulo fails in Bolivia (they've already played there). So I don't really see them waiting for an opponent's mistake, and they should be going out looking for the goal. Sao Paulo isn't a team to sit back in defense, so I'm sure they'll go out trying to control the game as well. They have loads of quality in their squad (Rogerio Ceni, Denilson, Ganso, Jadson or Luis Fabiano), and those players are able to create danger out of nothing. And since Arsenal's defense isn't anything special, they should have their fair chances. Their last match ended with just 1-1, but more goals could have come easily. Let's hope that they'll improve on their finishing and provide a nice match. Line is good at 2.25, as we have a small insurance in case of another 1-1. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Dec 6, 2012
Tigre - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2012, Final
Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!
Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!
Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
Sep 27, 2012
LDU Loja - Sao Paulo
Copa Sudamericana 2012
Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!
Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!
Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
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