Raja Casablanca - Atletico MG

FIFA Club World Cup 2013, Semi-final

Atletico MG (-1.25 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 3-1, LOST

Olimpia - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores 2013, Final

Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID

Atletico MG - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16

This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON

The Strongest - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

The Strongest must be really unhappy with the draw, as they landed in the same group with two Brazilian teams and one Argentinian. Big difference in quality, but the lucky part for the Bolivians is that neither of those teams are used to play at altitude. So they should make the most of their home matches, and they did have a good start with a win against Arsenal. They didn't have too much luck in the following two games, both played in Brazil, but they were still able to put on some nice performances, losing both games by just 1-2. Now this should be a different story, as they are more offensive at home, and can take advantage of the probable physical problems that the Brazilians should have in the high altitude of La Paz. Atletico are so far one of the best teams in the competition, with 9 points from 9 possible, and with an awesome goal-scoring record of 9 goals in 3 games (with 4 against, conceding in every game). They also like to play on the offense, and have tons of skills in their squad (Ronaldinho, Jo, Diego Tardelli, etc). They can be deadly on counter-attacks, and even more from set pieces, and they should have plenty of spaces, as The Strongest's only chance to get something from this group is to go out in attack. Both teams had only overs so far in this group, and usually, games played in the altitude of La Paz end with plenty of goals. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.93, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON

Palmeiras - Atletico Mineiro

Copa Sudamericana

Odds have gone down on this one, so there isn't probably any value left, but this bet still looks good and very likely to happen. Palmeiras wants this Cup, as it could be their easiest way to next year's Copa Libertadores, since in the league they are 5 points behind the last place that qualifies them, and they appear to sacrifice that, since they used a reserves team last weekend, and have still managed to win the game. So, all the regulars should be fit tonight, a thing that can't be said about Atletico Mineiro. They have much bigger problems, as the fight to avoid relegation will go all the way to the wire. And their priority is of course the league, where they are playing full strength, unlike in the Copa Sudamericana, where for this match they will rest all of their regulars, and play with a fully B squad. That surely gives Palmeiras a huge advantage, but there is also another interesting theory here. Next week, this match will see a repeat, but this time in the league, and since Mineiro is practically gifting the win in Sudamericana, Palmeiras could have the chance to return the favor, and gift them some vital points in the relegation battle. In the last 3 meetings that were played in Sao Paulo, Palmeiras won 2 with the same score of 3-1, and even if Mineiro field reserves tonight, I doubt we'll see a trashing. 2-0 score looks the most probable, so I'm expecting an easy cover of the handicap. GL!

Palmeiras (-1 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Atletico Mineiro - Santa Fe

Copa Sudamericana

Santa Fe will be looking to take advantage of a troubled Atletico Mineiro side, when they face each other in tonight's Copa Sudamericana. The Brazilian team is fighting fiercely against relegation, as after a few mathces where they have shown some improvement, they find themselves just 2 points behind the safe zone. And most importantly, next weekend they will play at home against Avai, one of their main rivals for avoiding relegation, so their focus will surely go there. From the most notable misses, we can see that top scorer Diego Tardelli will miss the game through injury, same as midifielders Ricardinho (21/6) and Fabiano (10/0), as well as forward Daniel Carvalho (10/2). But besides them, more regulars are expected to be rested, as Mineiro's players are accusing a heavy state of fatigue, and to worsen that is the last thing they need before the 10 rounds of their Serie A. Meanwhile, a much fresher Colombian side will come to Brazil with all they have, and all their regulars are expected to start tonight's game. Despite some recent slip-ups in the league and the cup, they are still a side that needs to be taken into consideration, as their full attention goes to the Copa Sudamericana. These odds might seem fair under normal circumstances, but with the Brazilians in all sorts of problems, I think there's some value on the Colombians, and I don't expect them to lose here. GL!

Santa Fe (+0.75) @ 1.86, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST