Real Garcilaso - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Final

Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

Universitario - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Final

Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!

Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Olimpia - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores 2013, Final

Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID

Corinthians - Chelsea

FIFA Club World Cup 2012, Final

My first thoughts on this final (several weeks ago, because I was 99% sure this would be the match-up) were to skip this game. Chelsea were on a bad run of form, and I just couldn't trust them... especially after Benitez took charge. But after seeing the semi-final matches, I pretty much realized that the quality gap between the European teams and the south/central American ones is just too big. Chelsea gave Monterrey no chances, and with some extra-concentration, they could have recorded an even bigger score. Hazard was particularly impressive, as he dribbled the hearts out of Monterrey's players. Now I know there is a difference between Mexican and Brazilian teams, but if Chelsea keeps the same level of performance, they should have anything to worry about. Corinthians has a solid team, and they have Guerrero up-front, but I wasn't at all impressed with them against Al Ahly. They just seemed lazy, and they actually made the Egyptians look better than they actually are. With that performance they can't expect to take something from Chelsea, and since the odds are a bit better than I expected, I'm taking this bet. GL!

Chelsea (-0.5 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Tigre - Sao Paulo

Copa Sudamericana 2012, Final

Tigre made a great achievement to reach the final of Copa Sudamericana, but this should be as far as they get, as I don't see them getting their hands on the trophy. They did make a great campaign, so I won't be pinning their performance on luck, as they overturned negative results at home with Deportivo Quito and Cerro Porteno, before qualifying to the final with an aggregate win (0-0 at home and 1-1 away) over Millonarios. Sao Paulo should be a different class, as they can count on several top-notch players: goalkeeper legend Rogerio Ceni, wonderkid Lucas Moura, Paulo Henrique Ganso, Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Denilson, etc. So a lot of stars in the Brazilian team, and this could be seen in their overall performance this season, where they finished their league on 4th place (compared to Tigre, who are sitting on 19th place, with just 1 win and 8 draws in 17 games), and they also had slightly more difficult matches on their route to the final, facing U de Chile and U Catolica. Another disadvantage for Tigre would be that they won't be able to play this first leg on their own stadium, as it doesn't meet the CONMEBOL requirements, so they'll have to play in La Bombonera (Boca's stadium). Everything points towards an away win, and even though I was hoping the odds to be a bit higher, this bet is worth taking as it is. GL!

Sao Paulo DNB @ 1.70, 4/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

Santos - Barcelona

FIFA Club World Cup, Final

Ever since this competition began, I had planned a bet on goals, and I was sure about this bet until a couple of days ago. Villa and Alexis's injuries should be quite a blow for Barcelona and it's offensive scheme, so now I'm really scared of this bet, especially since the value is long gone (over 3 @ 1.81 - which were the opening odds at Sbo - would have been a solid bet, but over 3.5 @ 1.97 now is a long way from being takeable). So the handicap looks better and better. Santos's defense was pretty tragic most of the times against Kashiwa, but only after Santos stopped attacking with a comfortable lead, and the Japanese had no other choice but to go all-in attack. The Brazilians are more than capable to score against Barcelona, as the long-shots are probably the best idea against the Spanish giants, and they showed they have some real skills when it comes to this (all 3 goals against Kashiwa were superb, and came from outside the area). And Valdes is not a top-class keeper that can consistently save his team. Counters are also looking good for Santos. And I don't expect Barcelona to look for a trashing here, so if they take the lead, they'll probably settle for their careful and boring passing game. The Libertadores champions shouldn't lose by more than 2 goals, and maybe they could even make a little surprise, since 2 years ago Estudiantes were pretty close to wining this trophy, also in front of Barcelona. GL!

Santos (+1.75 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10

Result: 0-4, LOST

Universidad San Martin - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Final

After the first match ended, I clearly said to myself that the second match will be a no-bet. But due to some events that happened in the last few days, I changed my mind a bit. The most important thing is that Rodas's red card has been deemed illegal, so the small winger will play. And that is a huge boost for Leon, as Rodas is their best players, and 75% of the goals they have scored either came from him, either were scored by him. The only one that is still suspended is striker Calheira, but their main attacking force, Perea, is going to play. San Martin has started an earthquake after learning that Rodas can play, but they had no other option than accept it. So now I expect some extra motivation from their part, to prove they can win the title even with Rodas on the pitch. The suspended striker Arriola is an important miss, but they have a large number of offensive players, and Alemano, Garcia or Vitti can do the job for the Saints. And since the first match ended as a draw, this match is a must win for both teams (in case of a draw, a third game will take place), as none of them will want a decider, especially Huanuco, since they won't be able to choose the venue, so they surely won't be able to rely on the altitude advantage. I see a lot of goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Final

Odds are a bit lower than what I expected, but I'm going to trust Leon one more time this season. Without a doubt, these two teams are the best Peruvian teams of the season, thanks to some excellent coaching and some key players (Rodas and Perea for Leon, Alemanno, Vitti and Arriola for San Martin). Full squads are expected for both teams, so let's not sit on that for too much. For Leon, this can be a memorable moment, coming straight up from the second division and winning the title, so I'm sure they are going to give more than 100%, and they will receive great support from the entire city of Huanuco, which has started some sort of holiday, especially for this final. Then, we also have the altitude. San Martin showed great play this year, winning drastically even at a lot of meters above the sea level, but all those matches were against teams from the lower half of the league: Melgar, Cienciano and Huancayo. The only match at altitude that matters here is the one played in Huanuco, where Leon took a solid 4-2 win. Not expecting a similar scoreline today, as all that Leon needs is a win, and that is also why I'm avoiding the over bet. Leon showed great football throughout the year, and certainly earned my entire confidence, and I'm giving them another shot today. GL!

Leon Huanuco @ 2.07, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST