Velez Sarsfield - Boca Juniors

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Nice to see such nice odds against Boca, especially when playing against a team like Velez. Today's hosts might be in bad shape lately, being still winless in the league after 3 rounds, in which they drew with Independiente and Argentinos Juniors, and lost at home to All Boys. Last match was played in Libertadores, and they somehow managed to squander a 3-1 lead and lose the match (they were playing with one man less since 3-1, but still, it's not easy to concede 3 goals in the last 15 minutes). That is why coach Gareca won't try anything funny tonight, won't make rotations in the team, and will throw all he's got, in order to end their bad run, and to record a high-profile win against Boca. Top scorer Santiago Silva looks to be 100% fit, and will start from the first minute, providing a huge boost for the team, and completing the offensive formation that Gareca has prepared, with Silva and Martinez up-front, supported by Ramirez and Moralez. Boca is a team that you don't know what to expect from it... very unstable and irregular. First they get trashed at home by Godoy Cruz (1-4) after showing some horrible defending, than they win 1-0 away at an in-form Racing, just to draw at home against All Boys, who are a good team, but not excelling away from home. Riquelme still not playing, due to a coach decision, and while I don't think they are poorer without him, morale will certainly be a bit lower... plus, they eliminate a danger at set pieces. I think this match will be all up to Velez. If they can recover their game and keep their heads cool, they shouldn't have a problem, and since I was expecting odds around 1.75-1.80, the current odds are too good to miss. GL!

Velez (-0.5 AH) @ 2.14, 4/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Argentinos Juniors - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Both teams will have Libertadores duties next week, but neither of them will voluntarily rest any of their first team regulars. I say voluntarily, because Argentinos will still have several absences. They are having some serious problems, as two key players will miss this game: defender Escudero (suspended) and midfielder Mercier (injured). But along them, 3 more players will be unavailable: defender Basualdo (suspended), forward Vargas (injured) and midfielder Emilio Hernandez (injured, after burning his testicles with boiled water!!!). Moreover, because he has so many absences, their coach will no longer rest goalkeeper Navarro and forward Oberman, who are carrying minor injuries. Independiente will go for this match with the best they have, won't rest anyone, as they also need to worry about their relegation percentage (they're not in trouble yet, but after their disastrous Apertura, they might have some problems next year). Last performances also favor Independiente, as they drew 2-2 with Velez, after a great first half, leading 2-0 at half time, while Argentinos barely managed a late equalizer away at Huracan. Recent head-to-head is also on El Rojo's favor, losing just one of the last 10 games, and that lost game came with a lot of drama, as Independiente lead 3-1, only to lose with two goals conceded in the last 3 minutes. GL!

Independiente (+0.25 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10

Result: 0-0, HALF WON

All Boys - Racing Club

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

All eyes will be fixed on All Boys, to see if they can continue their great run of form from Apertura, which saw them finish in the upper part of the table, and far from the relegation worries from the start of the season. Racing won't be an easy opponent, but I think that goals should not be absent here. In Apertura, at home, All Boys have an average of 2 goals scored per match, while also conceding 1 per match, so if that continues, the over shouldn't be a problem tonight. Morale is good, and all the players are looking forward to Clausura, especially Cristian Fabbiani, who lost a few kilograms, looked very lively in the training sessions and pre-season friendly matches, and looks determined to get back to his old form. Racing is also a team that is usually looking for the goals, and they have plenty of players capable of taking any chances they get. Their main offensive trio, Giovanni Moreno, Hauche and Luguercio, are all confirmed to start tonight's game, and this promises to be a very competitive match from both team's part. If the line would have been set at u/o 2 goals, I would have gone with medium stakes, as I can't see anything less than 2 goals scored, but the current line is still good enough, but with some lower stakes. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

San Lorenzo - Gimnasia la Plata

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

New season = new hopes for San Lorenzo, as is always the case with them. They made some nice transfers, and are hoping to be contenders in this Clausura, also helped by a milder schedule compared to their rivals, as they don't have any International duties. But they need a strong start for this, if they want to keep up with the giants, and build their confidence and morale. Also, a lot is expected from the new signings, as they all have a good history that sells them as possible saviors of the team. Pablo Velazquez (ex-Libertad) and Salgueiro (ex-LDU and Estudiantes) will be in charge of the team's offense, at least for this match, and with both of them being experienced strikers, already confirming their status in their previous clubs, San Lorenzo might have found a way to escape from their goal-scoring drought. Gimnasia also made a few signings, in their quest to avoid at least a direct relegation, and the most notable player must be Guillermo Barros Schelotto. Very experienced player, but at 37 years old I seriously doubt he can make a difference for the team. Angel Cappa is also the new coach, but his last job at River was far from impressive, and now he has an even weaker rooster to work with, so I doubt Gimnasia will be trouble-free at the end of the season. Unless a huge surprise happens, this should be a home win, but only for medium-low stakes, as the first rounds can always be dangerous. GL!

San Lorenzo @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Estudiantes la Plata - Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Argentina finally restarts it's league, so let's see what the front runners have reserved for this Clausura. Estudiantes of course wants the title, and they have a solid base on which to build, following their Apertura triumph. They were exceptional at home last year, winning all their 9 games, and only conceding a single goal. But things could be a bit different this season, as they have a new coach, Eduardo Berizzo, who will make his debut, and Estudiantes could be too big for him so early in his career. He said to favor an offensive style, similar to Marcelo Bielsa's style (from whom he learned a lot), so this could mean that Estudiantes won't be that defensive rock which we're used to. Newell's is also reported to be using an offensive formation for this duel, and their new signing, Claudio Bieler, is planned to feature in attack, hoping to regain his LDU Quito-form. Attacking Estudiantes might prove worth to try, as you rarely get anything from them if you focus solely on defense. The hosts certainly have the power to win, and void this bet on themselves (2-0 is very probably), but I'm also counting on Newell's to respond. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

LDU Loja - El Nacional

Ecuador, Serie A

I really don't think El Nacional should be an underdog here. Loja won Serie B last year, and have earned their promotion, 5 years after their previous experience in the top division, but they weren't too dominant as to really pose a threat to the top half teams of Serie A. Their squad consists mainly of local players, recruited from the club ranks (reserve team, juvenile team, etc) along with a few of the players that promoted the team and a couple of more experienced players. And that doesn't seem even close to enough to avoid the drop at the end of the season. This year, they could have some big chances to repeat their performances from 2005, when in Clausura they lost 11 out of 18 games. Against El Nacional they also have an awful record, losing all 4 matches, and at home they made some record breaking scores, losing 2-5 and 1-7. El Nacional looks well prepared for this tournament, having recorded good results in the friendlies that they played. The squad is more or less the same as last season, with a few additions, of course, and they once again look like mid-table material... and should be much better than Loja. GL!

El Nacional (-0.25 AH) @ 2.35, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Huracan - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Two teams in crisis of results will face each other tonight in Buenos Aires, and it's high time one of them wins. There is a lack of results in Primera Division for both teams, with Huracan losing their last 6 consecutive games and Independiente without a win for 7 matches, but for the Avellaneda team there is certainly not a lack of success, as they are the newly crowned champions of Copa Sudamericana, and that gives them a ticket for the preliminary round of Copa Libertadores 2011. Despite their run of 7 matches without a win, they have only lost 2 out of them, one away at surprise package All Boys, and one at home against eventual Apertura champions Estudiantes. But keep in mind, all of those matches were played with an alternative line-up, and rarely we could have seen more than 2-3 regulars, in order to rest them for Copa Sudamericana. But now, with the continental competition over, the rotation should be over, and tonight, more than half of the regulars are expected to start the game. Huracan looks hopeless at the moment, and their play seems even poorer than Gimnasia's, and I honestly don't know what they can do to turn things around. Maybe for Clausura, with a few good transfers, but Apertura is over for them. Independiente is on fire, and I expect them to bring the Sudamericana enthusiasm into this match, but I'll keep the stakes low, as the same enthusiasm could backfire on them. GL!

Independiente DNB @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Racing Club - Velez Sarsfield

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I'm going for the surprise here. Velez need to win and hope that Estudiantes doesn't, in order to win the title, or at least to force a deciding match between them. But in South America, unlike in most European countries, the rest of the teams don't bend over in the last round, and don't let the title hopefuls on a free run to the title. And we've seen this over and over again (Apertura 2009 - Banfield and Newell's were fighting for the title, and both teams lost in the last round; Clausura 2010 - Estudiantes drew at home against relegated Rosario Central, in the penultimate match of the season, gifting the title to Argentinos). So why can't we see something similar today? Especially since both teams are having very tough games. Racing is a very tough to beat team, especially when they are playing at home. They have a great offensive trio, Moreno-Hauche-Bieler, and they are scoring goals like crazy (all of them are expected to start). Of course, Velez's offense is even better, with Silva and Martinez topping the top scorers table, but if Estudiantes takes an early start, I seriously doubt their motivation. Thei away form also isn't as frightening as it should, so I think they'll have a lot of fighting to do. Odds are set like this only based on Velez's 'need to win', but in Argentina, that need to win usually means squat, and Racing not to lose looks like a nice bet. GL!

Racing (+0.5 AH) @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

All Boys - Godoy Cruz

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Last round of Apertura starts today, and we'll see in action two teams that have no further plans left for 2010. Godoy Cruz has sealed it's place in Copa Libertadores 2011, so they can afford to take it easy tonight. And they'll have a huge handicap from the beginning, as they will miss a couple of key players due to some injuries. First of all, their two top scorers are both absent (David Ramirez - 8 goals, Jairo Castillo - 6 goals), and both are in the league's top 10 goalscorers, leaving the team without main firepower. But things don't end here for them, as they will also miss two more key players, midfielder Nicolas Olmedo (16 games) and defender Zelman Garcia (17 matches), and they will leave quite some big gaps, that All Boys are likely to exploit. The newly promoted team has been amazing this Apertura, winning 7 out of 9 matches at home, being just below Velez and Estudiantes from this point of view. And they seem quite motivated to end this great year in great fashion, with another win at home, a venue where they already won against River or Estudiantes. They have a few doubts in their team, and their team won't be the best they have, but at least they will change back to the 4-3-1-2 formation (unlike in the last game against Gimnasia). At first sight, the over looked good, because All Boys will have a debutant as a central defender, but with Godoy's absences upfront, I have my doubts about them scoring. All Boys to win looks a bit better. GL!

All Boys (-0.5 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Leon de Huanuco - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Final

Odds are a bit lower than what I expected, but I'm going to trust Leon one more time this season. Without a doubt, these two teams are the best Peruvian teams of the season, thanks to some excellent coaching and some key players (Rodas and Perea for Leon, Alemanno, Vitti and Arriola for San Martin). Full squads are expected for both teams, so let's not sit on that for too much. For Leon, this can be a memorable moment, coming straight up from the second division and winning the title, so I'm sure they are going to give more than 100%, and they will receive great support from the entire city of Huanuco, which has started some sort of holiday, especially for this final. Then, we also have the altitude. San Martin showed great play this year, winning drastically even at a lot of meters above the sea level, but all those matches were against teams from the lower half of the league: Melgar, Cienciano and Huancayo. The only match at altitude that matters here is the one played in Huanuco, where Leon took a solid 4-2 win. Not expecting a similar scoreline today, as all that Leon needs is a win, and that is also why I'm avoiding the over bet. Leon showed great football throughout the year, and certainly earned my entire confidence, and I'm giving them another shot today. GL!

Leon Huanuco @ 2.07, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Gimnasia - All Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Gimnasia keeps going from bad to worse, and it looks like a lock the fact that they will once again have to play a decider, at the end of the season, to see if they remain in the Primera Division. And, with the way they are playing, the only thing that could change that would be a direct relegation, as I honestly don't see them climbing above the play-off area any time soon. And things aren't getting any better for tonight's match, as they will miss several important players: midfielder Rinaudo and top-scorer Cordoba are absent with injuries, while defender Casco is suspended. Those absences are sure the damage Gimnasia even more, and I expect another poor match from them. All Boys are having a great campaign, and could be in with a real chance of qualifying to Copa Sudamericana at the end of the season, after spending 30 years in the lower divisions. But, despite their good performances and good play, they are still without a win in away games, so I trust them fully to try and change that tonight. They will also have a couple of absences, but overall they are much better than Gimnasia, and should be able to cope without those players, especially since their key players are up for the game. GL!

All Boys DNB @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 3-1, LOST

Colon - River

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I'll stick with the trend here, and go for the under again, as today, we will have two teams that are looking incapable of scoring, or creating some solid chances. Those who have watched River playing, know that only one word can describe them: boredom. They are indeed pretty solid at the back, and defend pretty well, but when it comes to go on the attack, they just lack any ideas of creativity. Most of their actions are very easy to read, and even when the ball reaches the area successfully, the finishing is just awful. And Colon's offense is just as poor, so if someone is expecting any type of excitement from this match, he should be in for a very nasty surprise. I'm expecting both teams to focus on the defense, especially now that River is out of the play-off places, and every lost match for them is likely to send them back. And with their poor form away, their aproach has to be careful, especially since they can't count on a good offensive game. Colon should take advantage of the weak River, but it won't be easy. The good thing is that they tend to sit back and defend if they open the score, so I'm not expecting more than 1 goal from them, and that is 1 goal too many than what I expect from River. With just 4 matches out of 16 finishing with more than 2 goals, I think this game goes as a good opportunity for another poor performance from both teams. GL!

under 2 goals @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Quilmes - All Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Quilmes could (and should) be leaving the last place of the Apertura, and could also do a step forward in their desperate tries to avoid direct relegation - not very big chances for that, but Gimnasia look even more awfull, so you never know. Today, they are finally able to return on El Centenario, after a few matches played on neutral ground, due to some problems with the supporters. And besides the return to their home ground, and their good recent form (4 points in the last 2 matches), they wil also be receiving an All Boys team filled with injury worries. The surprise package of the Apertura is coming into this match with 4-5 injuries, almost all of them being first team players. The most important one will be the absence of striker Ereros, which, combined with Fabbiani's absence, triggered the change of the tactical formation to a 4-4-2, trying to get more defensive stability, since there will be some diminished firepower up front. Quilmes is in a big need of points, and I'm expecting them to take control of the game, and push for the goal early on. However, All Boys proved several times they are very solid and stable in the back, and with the new formation, they shouldbe extra-careful. Add to that Quilmes looks awful in offence, and lack too much creativity, the under bet looks pretty good here. GL!

under 2.25 goals @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Gimnasia - Velez

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Estudiantes and Velez are simply a class better than the rest mug-teams from Argentina, so it should come as no surprise that they are dominating almost all the tables (Apertura, Libertadores aggregate, relegation aggregate). It looks like the battle for the title is going all the way, and since Estudiantes won easily yesterday (despite being soundly dominated in the last 10 minutes, barely touching the ball), Velez are also in a must-win situation. And they will most likely win today, as I don't think Gimnasia has enough quality to keep the pace with Velez for 90 minutes. And here comes another tricky thing. Estudiantes are Gimnasia's bitter rivals, so with a Velez win, they will keep the pressure on El Leon. I'm sure there are many Gimnasia fans and players that would love to give Velez a helping hand. And if Gimnasia's situation wouldn't be so dramatic (they are deep inside the relegation play-off zone), I would take that thing as certain. But since they are also in desperate need of points, I have my doubts about them helping Velez. Even so, Velez has much more skills and class to win this the fair way, and their are rightly favorites here. GL!

Velez (-0.75 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Estudiantes - Huracan

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Estudiantes got a cold shower last week, after losing at Tigre, and also losing the first place in the Apertura, being overtaken by Velez, with the same number of points, but better goal difference. So, with 5 games left, Estudiantes can't afford to take any more wrong turns, if they want to avoid the previous season's disaster, losing the Clausura in the last round. Defender Desabato won't be taking part in this match, but despite that, there are overall good news for Estudiantes, as they welcome back defender Roncaglia and goalkeeper Orion. Otherwise, no problems for them, as they have fit all the players, and the offensive trio will be the usual one: Enzo Perez, Gaston Fernandez and Hoyos, with Veron and Brana close by. It's worth mentioning that Estudiantes has only victories at home, 6 on a string in this Apertura, and haven't conceded a single goal yet, while Huracan are having problems when playing away from home, losing by a pretty large difference to Olimpo, Boca, Racing or Gimnasia, teams that are all in the wrong side of the table. The handicap is a bit high, and I don't really like playing more than -1 on anyone from Argentina, but with their form, and with Estudiantes' hunger for points, I think we can expect a relaxing 2-0 here, maybe even a 3-0. GL!

Estudiantes (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Independiente - Olimpo

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I going to keep going with the trend here, as I think another under is on the cards. Independiente will use a second team, in order to keep their regulars fresh between the 2 Sudamericana matches, as this week they played at home against Tolima, while next week they will have to make a journey to the height of Quito. So, the only sensible thing to do here is to rest all the players they can, since they have stated loud and clear that the Apertura doesn't interest them, and all their guns are pointed towards Copa Sudamericana, which leads to next year's Libertadores. Only the regular goalkeeper will be used, and that's a big plus for them, as he comes after some nice performances. Even with a second squad, I'm pretty confident they won't lose, as Olimpo simply lacks any value and class to remain in Primera, and to win away at some of the league's bigger names. They lack ideas and finishing, and also their defensive line is pretty much clueless. But Independiente with this line-up can't hope for too much either, as in the previous games where they used reserves (at All Boys and San Lorenzo), they pretty much lacked any depth in offense, despite scoring in both matches (against Boys they scored after a free-kick, while against San Lorenzo the goal came after a huge fault in attack). They will still control this match, and will probably manage to win it in the end, but can't see them past a 1-0, because it will be hard to break the crowded defense that Olimpo will probably field. GL!

under 2 goals @ 2.12, 3/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

All Boys - River Plate

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I just couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the odds, and I just can't understand why River is a favorite here (probably because people are betting, and odds are set in favor of the big name). Even saw, I waited until the last minute to take the bet, as I was waiting for some last minute news on All Boys's line-up, as they had 5 regulars doubtful. And the news are pretty good, as 3 of those 5 have been recovered and should start, leaving only midfielder Perea and striker Ereros out of the game. The absence of Ereros could be the tricky part here, as in his place, Fabbiani will play, and he's pretty much awful. But I have faith in his team-mates, and if they play like they usually do on home ground, I don't give River much chances. All Boys are really playing well at home, defeating some huge names from Argentina, like Boca, Estudiantes or Independiente, and besides the wins, what really surprised me was the way they are playing, always looking for the goal, and avoiding the 'defend at all costs' strategy, that the small teams usually employ. River, on the other hand, are still in the relegation play-off area, and look totally out of form. Despite their big names (Pavone, Buonanotte, Funes Mori, etc), they just can't seem to get it right, and are on a streak of 6 games without a win. They have a lot of troubles in scoring, despite being able to create a lot of chances, and if they let their opponents to put pressure on them, it usually turns into a conceded goal. The DNB looks great, same as the over 2 line, as I expect an open game, with All Boys as the most probable winner. GL!

All Boys DNB @ 2, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

San Lorenzo - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Independiente is the other Argentinian team that performs in the Copa Sudamericana, and we can see the consequence in the league. They have been awful so far in the league, finding themselves 3rd from bottom, but ever since coach Mohamed came to the club, there have been some visible improvements. However, away from home they have only managed to snatch one draw in 6 games, the other 5 matches ending in defeats. The big news is that after some thinking, the team will go with the B squad against San Lorenzo. Mohamed was determined to rest a few regulars, but also to field a decent team against El Ciclon, but it looks like he changed his mind overnight, and he will rest most of his regulars for the second leg against Deportes Tolima (who will also rest their regulars tonight). Sudamericana is a must for Independiente this season, as it is their only hope for playing in Libertadores next season. With this information, the odds on San Lorenzo become value, despite falling a bit in the last 2 days. El Ciclon isn't in the best form, and this should be a great opportunity for them to get back to winning ways. They will also change their defensive line from 3 defenders to 4, due to a couple of injuries, and that should give them more stability. A few changes are also expected in offense, as lately the strikers are seeming incapable of scoring, despite creating a lot of chances, but I have faith in the ability of those who will start tomorrow (most probably Menseguez and Rovira). GL!

San Lorenzo (-0.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Racing Club - Arsenal Sarandi

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Pretty high odds for the over in my opinion, in a match between 2 teams that are not goal-shy. Especially when playing at home, Racing does it very well, and scores quite a lot for this league, and has already scored 12 goals in 6 games, most of them thanks to offensive midfielder Moreno, who is in exceptional form. And in front of him will play today Hauche and Bieler, players that are always capable of scoring, and especially Hauche seems also in quite a nice form. Racing is gunning for a Libertadores ticket, and they need to gun it hard, so anything else than a victory is not an option here. Meanwhile, Arsenal are the surprise package of this Apertura, and are looking to remain at the leaders' back, as with 3 points today they will move back to 4 points behind Estudiantes, and if things go ideal for them, we could see a showdown for the title in the last round, when they play in La Plata. But I seriously doubt they'll be able to keep it up until then. Striker Leguizamon is also in good form, and if there are some opportunities for him, I'm sure they'll make them count. The 2 goals line for this match seems like an underestimation of the game, and I'll gladly take it, as I don't expect anything below a minimum of 2 goals. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.79, 4/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Godoy Cruz - Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Newell's played a pretty good match this mid-week at home, against LDU Quito in Copa Sudamericana, but luck wasn't on their side, and they eventually had to settle for a 0-0 draw. But this result serves them as much as a defeat, as it is well known LDU's home strength, at the high altitude of Quito. So, coach Sensini has decided to give a rest to most of his players, in order for them to be fit for the grueling duel in Ecuador. Schiavi is suspended for this match anyway, while 8 other players will be rested (Alayes, Mateo, Bernardi, Borghello, Fideleff, Estigarribia, Formica and Sperdutti), leaving them to play with a team of reserves and fringe players. Godoy are still having a chance to catch the leaders Estudiantes, and will probably relish the opportunity to easily beat a usually solid team like Newell's. They won't have any absences, and they are very likely to field their base team, their strongest line-up. A victory for Godoy will also cement their qualification to Copa Libertadores (which looks good anyway, since they are 2nd in the Average points table). Odds are still take-able, and this looks like a solid bet. GL!

Godoy Cruz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST