Deportivo Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!

Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST

LDU Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

As the First Stage of the Ecuadorian league is entering it's final rounds, there 4 teams that are still gunning for the first place. Everybody is waiting for another misstep from Emelec in order to achieve something, but they'll be fighting until the very end. Liga de Quito is one of the challengers, as they are currently sitting just 3 points behind the leaders, and if they are to keep hoping, they'll have to win all their remaining games. Today it will be against El Nacional, a team that has recently found some form, although they are still very poor when leaving their home stadium (they have a 1-17 record on the road). LDU haven't been the same as in previous years, not even at home where they bolster a record of 6-1-2, but they are also in good form, and the chance to tie Emelec on points should give them some extra-motivation. History is also on their side, as they have won 9 of the last 10 home duels against El Nacional, and are looking good to increase those numbers. GL!

LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON

El Nacional - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

For the first time ever, I am going to take two different bets on the same game. Originally, I intended to take only the over, but the recent odds movements make the other bet a must take. Both teams started the season in quite a good fashion: LDU won their opening match against U Catolica with 2-1, and they showed some good skills and nice football. They are aiming for the title, but I have my doubts about their consistency, as they have changed a lot of players, and want to reconstruct the team. Three important players are definitely out through injury: defenders Araujo (team-captain) and Reasco, and midfielder Rojas. Furthermore, goalkeeper Dominguez, defender Morante and midfielder Saritama are doubtful, as they played against Portugal on Wednesday, and due to some airline problems, they only returned to the club yesterday. So even if they will play, they surely won't be at 100%. El Nacional also won their opening game, 3-1 against Cuenca, but they have also lost 1-2 at Macara, despite being the better team throughout much of the match. They have been showing some nice attacking plays, and I'm sure they'll do the same today, as they have no important absences. LDU should suffer a bit with those absences, and since most of them are defensive players, goals should come (on a side note, from their last 10 mutual games, 9 had at least 2 goals, while 7 of them ended in over 2.5). And also, under these circumstances, they should by no means be favorites. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

El Nacional DNB @ 2.37, 2/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

El Nacional - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Quito is starting to get up to date with their matches, since their schedule has cleared a bit after their Copa Sudamericana elimination. And they really need to start summing up points if they don't want to fight against relegation up until the last round... and the same can be said about El Nacional, as they are tied on points with Deportivo Quito, just one point above the relegation line. So, simply put, a draw won't help any of them, that is why I expect both of them to go straight for the victory. El Nacional will have it the hardest, despite being hosts, as they have 3 important absences, all in defense, as Javier Chila (13/0), Jose Madrid (13/0) and Jhon Narvaez (7/0) are all suspended. Big blows, but it doesn't justify the recent increase of odds on them, as they are still the only undefeated team at home. Besides, Deportivo Quito did show some slight improvements recently, but they are not consistent. I'm going for over here, as El Nacional's back line should suffer with all those absences, and I expect both teams to show some attacking football, willing to go for the 3 points. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Olmedo - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Olmedo is as good as relegated, and only a miracle could save them now, as they are 8 points behind the safe line. And with time running out, any miracles are unlikely. Despite the fact that they say they will still fight until everything is lost, they have already started to 'clean' their squad, that's why we won't see some important figures today: Midfielders Godoy (27/1), Prieto (19/4) and Nazareno (9/1), plus defender Gamez (15/0) and forward Sergio Souza (12/6) are no longer training with the first squad. Out of them, at least 3 are considered key members of the squad. Morale is low within the team, as after a promising start of the Second Round, they went back to their dreadful form, having 6 consecutive matches without a win. El Nacional are also deeply involved in the relegation battle, and are just 1 point above the line, so a win is a must here. They've had some nice results lately, beating Barcelona and Manta, and drawing with LDU Quito. However, they are still winless on the road, so I really expect an ugly match today. But with some absences for Olmedo, and a different mood for the visitors, they should be able to take something here. GL!

El Nacional (+0.25 AH) @ 1.74, 3/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-WON

Independiente - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Last time we went against Independiente, and we were right... now let's see if they can deliver another win, but this time with a bet on them. Nothing changes for them in regards to their last match, as they will still be without those 3 players (mentioned them last week: gk Azcona, df Ramirez and fw Solis). But even without them, they still played a pretty solid match against Cuenca. And I expect more from them today, as they are playing at home, against a weaker opponent. At home they are still a force to be reckoned with, and El Nacional must be at their best to take something out of this game. The visitors also have an important absence, as defender Ricardo Lopez (16/0) is suspended. They are a team can surprise, and as evidence we have their victory at Barcelona from last month, but Independiente should also have a moral advantage, as they've beaten El Nacional twice this year, so let's hope they add another win under their belt. GL!

Independiente (-0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

El Nacional - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Despite their poor recent form, Loja are not giving up on the title dream yet. And it would be silly to do so, as they are just 2 points behind the leaders, and with 2 matches remaining, everything can still happen. But for that, of course, they need to win today, otherwise everything will be over for them. But it surely won't be very easy for them, as El Nacional comes into this match after 3 wins from their last 4 games, including one as visitors against second placed Barcelona. And for today, a nice match is expected, as El Nacional will use a system with just 3 defenders, so there should be a lot of spaces for Loja. The tactics will be 3-4-1-2, so we should also see plenty of offensive actions from El Nacional, and I'm confident we'll also see some results, as Loja comes with 2 important absences: defenders Aguirre (19/2) and Bermudez (17/0) are both suspended for this game, which means that the goal-scoring chances should be plenty. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.82, 3/10

Result: 1-3, WON

El Nacional - Macara

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

I've been waiting for a long time for the perfect moment to bet on El Nacional, and I think that moment finally came. I know that their recent run of for may be off-putting (without a win in 5 games, and with 3 defeats from those 5 matches), but they are bound to recover sooner or later. They are not such a bad team as their results and league position suggests, and if we look at their opponents in the last 5 rounds, we can see Emelec, LDU Quito and Deportivo Quito, plus Cuenca, another team in the top half of the table. So no one expected miracles from them. But now, they will face what should be a much easier team, Macar, and they are in desperate need of a win. Coach Vizuete is rumoured to be safe on his position, but I doubt that those in charge will have more patience if he fails today as well. They will miss forward Preciado (10/3) and defender Narvaez (8/0), but this should not matter too much. Much more important absences could have Macara (who don't have a very wide squad), and they will miss for sure their regular goalkeeper Mora (13), while forward Guerra (7/4) and midfielder Esterilla (13/1) are doubtful. They are without a win in all their away games this season, so seriously, if El Nacional wants to get back on track, today is the day to do it. GL!

El Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Deportivo Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Deportivo Quito are in a troubled situation, so I'm counting on some extra-motivation today, to help them overcome their recent situation. They have more quality than El Nacional, that should be pretty clear, but they could also suffer psychically, as this will be their first match after the 0-6 trashing they suffered in Chile, which made them lose qualification despite holding a 4-1 advantage from the first leg. And even more, their coach Carlos Ischia was also sacked from the team yesterday. But, with a lot of unhappy and disgruntled people, I'm hoping for a solid performance from them, to get back some confidence and also to try and save their season (with 3 points today, they will be 4 points behind the last qualifying place for Sudamericana, with 7 games remaining). The coach for today will be Garay, who will be promoted temporarily from the reserve team, so he probably knows the players quite well. Meanwhile, El Nacional doesn't have a great season either, just above the relegation zone, and with quite a poor traveling record (1-2-4, with a 5-14 goal difference). They will be with some absences today, as defender Ricardo Lopez (11 appearances) and midfielder Dennis Quinonez (6/1) are out with injuries, forward Edison Preciado is in doubt as he's still not 100% fit, while defender Juan Trivino (5) is suspended. The odds look pretty good for the home win, and I'm counting on them to show some pride and determination, and end their suffering. GL!

Deportivo Quito @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

El Nacional - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

El Nacional is one strange team. They can suck throughout 90% of the season, but they can still pull off some great results against the league giants (2-1 at home with Emelec and Deportivo Quito, and a narrow 2-3 loss at LDU, after missing a penalty at 2-2 in the 75th minute). Of course, this all compensates with other matches, like the back to back losses with Cuenca, the 0-5 trashing at Emelec, etc, but the thing is that they are capable of giving everyone a scare. However, for tomorrow's match with LDU, they should suffer a lot, as they will be missing 4 key players: goalkeeper Garcia (12 matches), defenders Chila (10) and Lopez (11), plus midfielder Pita (10). So a pretty decimated team, without some of their most important players. Liga de Quito comes into this match with only one important absence, Ambrosi. Other than him, all the players are fit to play, and I'm sure they'll want to capitalize on their recent good run of form (undefeated in the last 6 matches). GL!

LDU (-0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 4/10

Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

LDU Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

I got burned last time I bet on LDU, after Independiente managed a 93rd minute equalizer, but I'll go on Liga one more time. It's true that they didn't make a great match earlier this week (nor in their previous 3 games), but as I said before, they have one of the best squads in the league, and this bad form of theirs won't last forever. It's just a matter of time until they get back to winning ways, and El Nacional's form this year hasn't been anything special. They did manage a recovery lately, but their only wins came against Macara with two last minutes goals, and against Olmedo, who can't be considered a real challenge since they have only 1 point after 8 rounds. Last match they lost at home against Barcelona, so they're the team to beat if LDU wants to recover some form. El Nacional will also miss captain Pita, while Liga welcomes back defender Calderon, who returns from a suspension. Coach Bauza should motivate his players, and hopefully, they will start winning some matches again. GL!

LDU @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 3-2, WON

Libertad Asuncion - El Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2012

Libertad lost in the first leg, by a narrow 0-1, so I was expecting a -0.75 to bank on it, but unfortunately, the bookies only offer -1 at some pretty low odds. So this definitely isn't a value bet, but still, it's a bet that should be a winner (or at least not a loser). The first match was considered to be an equal affair, and indeed it was. El Nacional won, but it really could have gone either way, with Libertad creating several chances, but failing to score any of them. So, with the background set, we come to the second leg, which I expect to be a bit different. The Paraguayans will surely take on a more offensive approach, as they are trailing by one goal, while the Ecuador side already expressed their plans to use a more defensive minded strategy. What will be the deciding factor then? First of all, Libertad has an overall better team than the Ecuadorians, and it is a more solid team, with more international experience. Then, El Nacional won't have the altitude advantage as in the first leg, and that also drops their chances for this match. Finally, Libertad is a very tough team to beat when playing at home, and teams like LDU Quito, Sao Paulo and Fluminense stand proof for that. They should qualify, but even if they don't, a win shouldn't be under question. Small stakes only, because of the lack of value of this bet. GL!

Libertad (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 4-1, WON

El Nacional - Libertad Asuncion

Copa Libertadores 2012

El Nacional was the surprise package in the Ecuadorian Serie A last season, pulling off a great season, and finally taking the last Libertadores spot, after a play-off with 3rd placed LDU, taking advantage of the Albos packed schedule and player rotations, due to their Sudamericana final. However, their merit still exists, and now they have high hopes of qualifying for the main stage of Copa Libertadores, especially since they have kept most of their players from last year, trying to build on that. The problem with them is that the players are very young, and are lacking international experience, so they might find that a solid team from Paraguay is too much for them. Young players have a lot of energy, and will to perform, but they might also lose their head fast if put under pressure. Also, statistics are against them: last time they played Libertadores was the Preliminary round in 2009, when they were knocked-out by Nacional of Paraguay, while in their mutual matches with Libertad (2005 and 2006) they made 2 draws and lost the other 2. Libertad is a very solid team, with a lot of experience on this stage, having won their Libertadores groups for the last 3 years, also being undefeated in the group stage in the last 2 years. They have also kept most of their players from last season, so we will probably see a well built team, with a good and comfortable system. They have previously pulled of good results against better teams than them, so El Nacional shouldn't scare them. The only real advantage the Ecuadorians might have is the high altitude, but Libertad also showed they can handle it (last match played in Quito was last year in Sudamericana, against LDU, and they made a very good match, despite losing unluckily in the 90th minute). They can also do some serious damage on the counter-attack (I'm expecting El Nacional to try and take control of the match), so with this handicap line I'm willing to try a small bet. GL!

Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

LDU Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Third place play-off

Last match of the year in South America, and while most teams are already either celebrating a successful season, either already on holiday making plans for 2012, LDU and El Nacional will fight their final battle for the Libertadores qualification. LDU comes after a very long season, and unfortunately for them, without much success, having not won the league title, while also losing in the Sudamericana final, against a superb U de Chile. So that means that this match is the 'make-or-break' moment of the year. They either win this, or they are out of the 2012 Libertadores, and of course, that is not an option for them. El Nacional reached the 4th spot in the aggregate table in extremis, having finished just with 2 points more than Barcelona. Still, they deserve that spot, as they have played well and consistently throughout the year. They come into this match with a 2-1 advantage from the first leg, but in that match LDU played with a 90% reserve team, due to their Sudamericana finals. But now, in the last match before the holidays, they will use the best they have, and will go for the win from the first minute of the match. It won't be a walk in the park, but LDU is the better team here, they are fully focused and determined to save their season, and also, they have won their last 7 matches against El Nacional, when playing in Casa Blanca. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Emelec - El Nacional

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Etapa

Emelec and El Nacional rarely dissapoint when it comes to overs, as they are probably the most offensive teams in the league, so I'm trying to keep up with this trend, and go for goals again. Emelec has the most goals scored at home, while El Nacional have the most goals scored away, so that sets this match up nicely, especially since both of the teams need and want the win. Emelec may have lost all chances to win the title without having to play a final, so the only objective left for them is to try and finish first in the aggregate table, thus giving them the chance to play the second leg of the final at home. Still a very tough task, as they are 6 points behind Deportivo, but I'm sure they'll do their best, and will keep playing offensive as always. Meanwhile, El Nacional needs all the points they can get, if they are to remain in the 4th place, which gives them the chance to enter the play-off for Copa Libertadores, and with Barcelona lurking close by, any point lost could be fatal. Anangono has recovered and should start today's match, and that's good news for their offense. They already said they are coming to Emelec to win the 3 points, so I'm expecting a nice and thrilling match, with - hopefully - several goals. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

El Nacional - Manta

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

El Nacional will probably the remaining matches of the season without the pressure of an objective. They have a good position in both the Segunda Etapa and the Aggregate tables, but not good enough to challenge for honors at the end of the season (10 points behind LDU in the aggregate table, so hoping to catch the Libertadores spot from them is pretty far fetched). That is why they can take on their matches with ease, and focus on the show, not on the points. And for tonight, 3 forwards are announced in the starting line-up: Kaviedes, Preciado and Anangono (team's top scorer, 3rd place in the goalscoring standings). And with El Nacional having one of the most efficient offenses in the league (22 goals scored so far, second only to Deportivo Quito), but also one of the most fragile defenses (22 conceded, 3rd worst defense), I'm counting on some goals here. Manta should also come out to play, as their league position isn't great (just 4 points above the relegation zone), and they probably know that going to El Nacional to defend a 0-0 is suicide. They haven't score a single goal as visitors yet, but this could be their chance, and I like this bet more than the handicap on El Nacional. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.73, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

El Nacional - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Liga de Quito is living a good moment, and their current form is worth following. After their 6-0 trashing of Manta, LDU made another good match in the second leg of Copa Sudamericana. Despite winning with only 1-0, they dominated almost the entire match, missed a lot of very good chances (Yaracuyanos's goalkeeper was the man of the match), and generally played very well. Coach Bauza anounced he will probably have to make a couple of changes to keep the players fit, but so far, only Vera and de la Cruz have been confirmed to be out for today's game. However, looking at what should, 90% sure, be the expected line-up for today, we can see a lot of their key players (Guagua, Urrutia, Calderon, Reasco, Bolanos and Barcos) ready to play. And I think they should be enough for El Nacional. And with El Nacional appearing to have some defensive issues (9 goals conceded in the first 5 matches), Liga can definitely take advantage of that, since Barcos is in hot form, scoring 5 goals in the last league match against Manta. Another interesting thing is that LDU hasn't lost in their last 12 meetings with El Nacional, since June 2008, showing a clear superiority of Los Albos, a superiority that will hopefully continue today as well. GL!

LDU (0) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 2-3, WON

El Nacional - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Expecting several goals here. Carrasco's tiqui-tiqui has worked and not so far... They managed to pulverize Imbabura in the first round, with a sounding 5-0, but then they just faded-out, losing to a depleted LDU Quito, and then managing just a 1-0 win with Manta. So I expect a reaction tonight, especially since we'll see the debut of Emelec's 2 new strikers: Nicolas Vigneri and Franco, both Uruguayan players, who will be sharing the offensive duties with Hurtado, in what should be an offensive 4-3-3. And I expect it to work, since El Nacional have the poorest defense so far in the Segunda Etapa, conceding 7 goals in 3 matches. But it won't all be easy for Emelec.El Nacional is also expected to react after their 2 consecutive trashings, and they usually get strong at home against the big teams, and they especially have an eye for Emelec. The Electricos haven't won at El Nacional since 2002. Striker Anangono has score 9 times so far for El Nacional, and will be the main threat for Emelec's defense. The 2 coaches, Carrasco and Saralegui, are also good friends, and have known each other for a long time, so they could try to exploit the others weaknesses. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.06, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

LDU Quito - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Trusted LDU on Thursday, but I guess it was a bad idea, as Velez proved too strong, and LDU's defenders where morons. However, now that their Libertadores adventure has ended, the league is their only objective, and they have some catching up to do, as Emelec has a 5-points advantage over them, although with two matches more played. So, hopefully, LDU changed the chip, and can now be fully focused on the Serie A, and can manage to recover from their poor recent results. A lot of first team regulars are available tonight, and in the line-up we can see Reasco, Guagua, Calderon, de la Cruz, Bolanos and Barcos. A strong line-up, that hopefully will know how to end the bad run. El Nacional has been playing above expectations, as they are on 4th place, just 3 points behind second-placed LDU. But, they have 5 consecutive matches on the road without winning, and Casablanca surely isn't an easy ground on which to take points (El Nacional is no Velez). And when you lose at Manta and Independiente, and also draw at Espoli, I don't think you can have many hopes of coming away with points from LDU, a thing that didn't happen since 2008. GL!

LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 2-1, HALF WON

El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

This is the bet of the day in my opinion, and I will thankfully take the nice odds on El Nacional. Cuenca's bounce-back has already begun, after a great start of the season, they are now on a run of 4 matches without a win. In their defense, they did play with Emelec (twice) and LDU, but they also had the first leg with El Nacional, at home, which they managed to draw in the 94th minute, taking a pretty much undeserved point. That's why I expected El Nacional to be somehow bigger favorites today, but it's much better this way. El Nacional is in good form now, having not lost in their previous 5 games, including a winning run on their home ground of 3 matches (Independiente, Emelec and Espoli), without a single goal conceded. For Cuenca, along their drop in form, there are also other problems, as they will be missing 3 key players of the team: central defenders Castro and Ledesma are suspended, same as defensive midfielder Godoy, all of them being very important pieces of the team, that will let the team very vulnerable to El Nacional's attacks. Head-to-head is also encouraging the hosts, as they haven't lost in their last 6 matches against Cuenca (last 5 were draws though), while at home, in the last 10 years, they have only lost 3 times, from 22 matches played. GL!

El Nacional (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 5/10

Result: 4-2, WON