LDU Loja - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

I fancy Barcelona quite a lot this season, and even though the start has been rather difficult, I'm counting on a constant increase in form. They've made some good signings during the off-season, so I'm really expecting them to challenge Emelec for the title (they are pretty much the only ones that can do it), and we should only mention the signings of Laurito and Nieto (the top scorers of the 2013 season - they have more than 50 goals between themselves) to know that they mean business. And today will be the first match when they both start as regulars, so I'm obviously confident and excited that there will be some goals. However, the back looked shaky throughout their first two matches, and Loja is a team that can really hurt you if they find the spaces. Both their matches this season ended with several goals, and I'm counting on the talented Fabio Renato to pull something off here (Ivan Kaviedes can also play, after serving a suspension, but he isn't announced as a starter). Loja always played offensively, so I'm definitely expecting some goals here, especially since last year, these two teams had three over 2.5 games from four matches played. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

LDU Loja - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Strange odds for this match. Loja are an average team, with average performances so far: just 2 wins in 8 games, and a 1-2-1 record at home. Also, they are without a win in their last 4 matches, and besides LDU Quito, they had an easy schedule, and they couldn't make it count: lost at home against newly promoted U Catolica, drew at winless Cuenca, and they also lost at El Nacional, thus ending their run of 6 straight defeats. Meanwhile, Emelec seem to be from a totally different galaxy. They have 7 straight wins, 16-3 goal difference, and are obviously topping the table with a whooping 6 points advantage, despite having a match less than second placed LDU Quito. So the current odds are out of place, especially if we think that several bookmakers had set Loja as slight favorites when the market opened. Regarding the absences, Emelec will miss only forward Pablo Zeballos (3/1). Otherwise, reports are giving out a full-strength team for Emelec, without resting key players ahead of their Libertadores match. Meanwhile, Liga de Loja will have two absences: defender Cumbicus (4/0) and forward Armando Wila (5/1). I know that Emelec won't be able to keep this run of form forever, but with these odds, it would be a shame not to try it. GL!

Emelec DNB @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 1-2, WON

LDU Loja - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

LDU Quito is coming into this match after ending their 3-match without a win run, with a 2-0 victory over Manta. They've made a good start of the season, winning the first 2 games, but something happened after their home loss against Emelec, as two scoreless draws followed, at Quevedo and Cuenca. So it was vital for them to have recovered their form and their confidence, because if we talk about quality, LDU has plenty, and I see them as main contenders for the title (although a long-walk behind Emelec - who so far seem to be from a totally different league). Loja is currently sitting around mid-table, after several less than convincing performances. They only managed to beat Macara and league champions Barcelona (who are currently on the last place, so it shouldn't mean too much), while also recording some low-level results, most notable is a home-defeat against newcomers U Catolica. Coach Velez will be forced to watch from the stands, while they also have to cope with the absence of defender Armando Gomez (5/1) and forward Armando Wila (5/1). Quito also miss defender Eduardo Morante and midifelder Carlos Feraud, but they should have good cover for them, with Edison Mendez and Francisco Rojas. GL!

LDU Quito DNB @ 2.09, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

LDU Loja - Barcelona

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Barcelona started this season in a dissapointing fashion, failing to win either of their 2 matches, despite some modest opposition like Manta and Quevedo. They appear to be struggling to reach the opposition's are, and are failing to put pressure and create chances. They did have some resting time, and I'm sure coach Costas worked on those areas, but some important absences tonight won't make their job any easier. Defenders Paredes and Erazo have played with the national team on Wednsday, and due to some airline problems they will only get to the club today, so they are ruled out. Same goes for goalkeeper Banguera. Furthermore, midfielder Damian Diaz is recovering from an injury, while forward Castillejos and midfielder Olmedo have not been called-up for this match. That gives us a list of 6 unavailable players, and at least 4 of them are key players in the squad. Loja won't have any important absences, and even though they also had a rough start of the season (2-2 draw at home with Deportivo Quito, and a 1-2 loss at Independiente), I'm confident they will step up their game eventually. And this would be the perfect chance, against a damaged Barcelona. GL!

Loja DNB @ 1.92, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON

LDU Loja - Sao Paulo

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Once again, I'm going against Loja, as their fairytale-like run will definitely not last forever. They have reached this stage after beating a very poor Monagas, thus gaining confidence, and after that they pulled off a big surprise by knocking out Nacional of Montevideo, with a 2-1 win in Uruguay. However, things might have gone a lot worse for them, as Nacional could have tied the match in the last minutes, and since Loja lost the first leg in Ecuador, they would have been out. But luck was on their side, and they managed to qualify. But can they pull off another surprise against Brazilian giants Sao Paulo? The altitude from their home city might be an advantage, but if we think about the fact that they lost at home against Nacional (a team that has no experience playing at high altitude), that doesn't seem so important. The thing is that Sao Paulo has a much better team than both Loja and Nacional, and if they have their minds set to it, they should be able to win this match. They will be without striker Luis Fabiano and without their new star Paulo Henrique Ganso, but they still have enough quality in their ranks with William, Jadson, Denilson or Rogerio Ceni. GL!

Sao Paulo (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

LDU Loja - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Despite their lowly stature, LDU Loja is doing a great campaign in Copa Sudamericana, and their recent victory in Uruguay, against Nacional, saw them qualify to the main draw. And with this, they have also found a renewed confidence that they can go far in the competition, that is why the priority will be the continental cup, not the league. Therefore, today, coach Velez will be resting a lot of regulars, as the team returned from Uruguay only on Thursday, and with the match against Sao Paulo coming up, he wants to have all players fit. The line-up is not yet confirmed, but we can expect around 7 regulars to miss this match. This certainly won't help their case, as they couldn't find some for in the league anyway, and have only 2 wins in the last 10 games. Cuenca isn't much better either, just one point more in the standings, but here they should be favorites. I'm expecting a tight match here, as Cuenca usually keeps the result close, but without many of their key players, I don't see Loja winning this one. GL!

Cuenca (+0.5 AH) @ 1.76, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Deportivo Quito - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

For this match, we will have two teams struggling to find their form, as both of them have been disappointing so far, for different reasons: Deportivo are always expected to challenge for the first places, but now they are sitting rock bottom with just 3 points from 6 games, without winning a single match so far. Meanwhile, Loja fought for a place in the final up until the last round of the First Stage, and everyone was expecting them to be near the top places once again. But they lost 4 of the 6 games they played, so they are in a very similar situation to Deportivo. The difference between them is in the style of play: while Deportivo keeps it tight, conceding 4 goals in their 6 win-less games (only scored once, though), Loja opens up a lot, scoring 7 goals while conceding 12. But I'll go for the home win. And the reasons are simple: Deportivo has a much more solid squad, they welcome back two important players (defender Checa and midfielder Bolanos) and they also look more solid with their style of play. All they need to do now is to start scoring goals, so former top scorer Bevacqua should start making the difference again. Only small-medium stakes. GL!

Deportivo (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 3/10

Result: 0-0, HALF LOST

Monagas - LDU Loja

Copa Sudamericana 2012

LDU Loja will make their international debut tonight, against Venezuelan team Monagas, and I'm quite sure they would have liked an easier draw. It's not like Monagas is a great team, but they had some solid performances this year, especially at home where they were very tough to beat. And with Loja not being anything special either, I think the home factor and Loja's lack of experience will prove decisive tonight. Monagas have already played in an international competition, last year in Sudamericana. They also had plenty of time to prepare for this game, as their season ended in May... they might be lacking in match fitness, but they should be more than prepared for the Ecuadorians. They also tried to strengthen their team as well as possible, with the clear objective of advancing to the next stage. Meanwhile, Loja has been quite disappointing lately in the league, far from their performances from the First Round. And besides their lack of experience, they will also be missing a key player: defender Jimmy Bermudez (18/0 in 2012). All in all, I can't really see Loja taking something from this game, but in the remote case that they do, this bet should cover the draw. GL!

Monagas DNB @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

El Nacional - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Despite their poor recent form, Loja are not giving up on the title dream yet. And it would be silly to do so, as they are just 2 points behind the leaders, and with 2 matches remaining, everything can still happen. But for that, of course, they need to win today, otherwise everything will be over for them. But it surely won't be very easy for them, as El Nacional comes into this match after 3 wins from their last 4 games, including one as visitors against second placed Barcelona. And for today, a nice match is expected, as El Nacional will use a system with just 3 defenders, so there should be a lot of spaces for Loja. The tactics will be 3-4-1-2, so we should also see plenty of offensive actions from El Nacional, and I'm confident we'll also see some results, as Loja comes with 2 important absences: defenders Aguirre (19/2) and Bermudez (17/0) are both suspended for this game, which means that the goal-scoring chances should be plenty. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.82, 3/10

Result: 1-3, WON

LDU Loja - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

My first thought for this match was of course to skip it, but the recent odds movement is ridiculous, and under this circumstances I just can't stay away from this game. The asian lines opened with a -0.25 for Loja, with odds around 1.85-1.90, and now we can get an even better price for the DNB, so no matter the outcome, we have value here. And other than the names of the teams, I can't see any reason for the odds. Loja is a small team, but they have performing well this season (4th place currently, but with a win today they will be tied on points with the leaders), and they also have a nice game flow, pleasant to watch. No important absences for them, and even more, they welcome back defender Vera (13) after a suspension. Also, they are undefeated in the last 6 matches, in which they've beaten Emelec and made an away draw with LDU. Deportivo Quito is indeed a big name, but this season they have mostly struggled, especially since they also had a tough and tireing Libertadores campaign. They did win clearly their last match, 3-0 with El Nacional, but I still don't trust them enough. Also, they will miss today some important players: regular goalkeeper Elizaga and midfielders Olivo (11) and Alex Bolanos (9/1). Loja are a strong team, and they could surprise once again tonight. GL!

LDU Loja DNB @ 1.98, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

LDU Quito - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Both teams with a solid season so far, although one of them are underachievers, while the others are overachievers. Liga de Quito are currently on second place, 2 points behind the leaders, so that may not sound so bad. But after the massive investments from pre-season, a lot more was expected from them, their recent run of 2 games without a win has put some doubts on their credentials. Last week they drew 1-1 at El Nacional, despite playing for almost an hour with an extra man. They had the possesion and tried to press, but with little success. So today they are pretty much forced to win, as the directors also gave the players an ultimatum. Their solid home form (4-2-1, 17 goals scored) should also give them an edge against a tricky Liga de Loja. The visitors have been performing well above expectations, sitting on 6th place, just 4 points behind the leader. They look like a solid team most of the times, but when visiting the more serious teams, they usually fail (lost 0-2 at Emelec and 1-4 at Deportivo Quito... still they were a tough nut to crack, as Emelec scored in the last 15 minutes, while against Deportivo they had 1-0 and lost only after they saw a red card). However, today Quito should be able to put a lot of pressure on them. They are simply better and have more quality, so I don't expect them to fail today. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.85, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Barcelona - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

First thought here was to take the -1 handicap, but the odds are a bit on the low side, and I'm pretty sure they will drop and the line will change to -1.25, and I don't like that too much. So I'm choosing the over instead, as it has better odds, and pretty much the same chances of happening. As I probably mentioned previously, Barcelona has a very good team, capable of challenging for the title, and I'm quite sure of their finish on the podium. Despite losing 2 points last round, they still looked good, dominating the entire match, having possession, chances to score and putting a lot of pressure on Tecnico, despite drawing 1-1. So now they should try and recover those points, and when they play at home it's another story. First round they won 3-1 with Cuenca, so I'm expecting a similar performance against Loja. LDU Loja started poorly, with 1 point in 2 matches and without a single goal scored, so they need to come out more today. Franklin Salas and Fabio Renato are decent strikers, and they can do some damage if given space. So, for this bet we only need one early goal, regardless if it will end 3-0 or 2-1 (both scenarios are equally possible). GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Emelec - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Great improvement for Emelec since the start of the second stage. If at the beginning they were barely getting points, had a funny defense, and everybody was criticising Carrasco's super-offensive tactics, now they have 6 victories in their last 10 matches, and are still hopeful of catching up with the leader Deportivo Quito. Not to get carried away, of course, as they are 8 points behind the leaders, and only a miracle would see them win the league title without having to play the final. However, they will take each match one at a time, trying to further improve their play. Today, an offensive trio is once again expected, with Iza, Franco and Vignieri responsible with the goals. Loja will play the remaining matches for fun, as they are safe from relegation, but also far away from any International qualifying place. So, without pressure, I expect them to make some entertaining matches. They are usually good on counter-attacks, and that should prove helpful against Emelec, a team that leaves plenty of spaces behind when attacking. In their 3 previous matches of the season, there were 12 goals scored, and average of 4 per match, so I'm going on goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 4-1, WON

LDU Loja - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Liga de Loja has recently been involved in some nice matches, where we saw several goals and some nice football. So we can have some high hopes that against Emelec, we can see both teams at their offensive best. If we look at Loja's results in this second stage of the tournament, we will probably stop at the 4-2 defeat of Cuenca, as well as on  the 6-3 away win at Independiente. Loja has been showing an appetite for goals, and with their defense being rather shaky, this usually proved great entertainment. Emelec's line-up is still unknown, but I doubt Carrasco will change from his already famos offensive formation, especially since it appears to be working so well, last round beating Espoli by 4-0. Both these teams seem to be in favor of the offensive football, so I think we can be sure that we'll see some goals. Both their previous matches ended with 5 goals, Emelec winning at home 3-2, and away with 4-1, so at least 3 today should be no problem for them.

over 2.5 goals @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

LDU Loja - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Don't understand the odds here. Liga de Loja are certainly no push-overs, as they surprisingly proved along the season, at the moment sitting on 5th place, 9 points behind the leaders. It was more than a successful season for the newly-promoted team, but to make them favorites so late in the season, against title challengers Emelec is a bit crazy in my opinion. With only 2 rounds to go, Emelec are trying hard to win this Primera Etapa, and seal their place in the championship finals, but this task is out of their hands. They are tied on points with LDU Quito, but the reigning champions have a game in hand, meaning that Emelec has to win both remaining matches, and then hope for a Quito slip-up. Nevertheless, they are not giving up, and will do their best. Pretty much full squad available for them today, and since they are the best away team in the league, against a solid home team, this match is expected to be a cracker. Loja is a good home team, but only against the lower teams... whenever a big name comes to visit, they usually flop (0-0 with Barcelona and Cuenca, 1-2 with LDU). I was actually expecting something like 2.20 odds for Emelec -0.5, so the current line/odds definitely has value in my eyes. GL!

Emelec DNB @ 2.07, 3/10

Result: 1-4, WON

LDU Loja - Independiente Jose Teran

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Not one of the high-profile clashes from Ecuador, but a good oportunity for a bet. The two old Serie B rivals will have to face each other in Serie A this time, for the second time (Independiente won the first match at home, 1-0). But things have changed a bit since then. Both teams look to be in good form, Loja having 3 matches without defeat, while Independiente have a series of 4, and both recorded exciting victories as visitors at Deportivo Quito. Loja have 2 consecutive victories, and tonight, a new coach will make his debut, Carlos Habbeger. He worked a lot with his players throughout the week, and he looks set to do a good job at the team. So I expect some even more solid results with him (although Loja are in a great position in the league, sitting on 6th place), and I'm also counting on the 'new coach effect' for a determined performance tonight. Meanwhile, Independiente are second from bottom, but only 5 points behind Loja. But the real blow for today's match comes in the form of suspensions, as they will be missing 3 regular players, all of them quite important to the team: defenders Franklin Corozo and Domingo Martinez, plus midfielder Richard Estigarribia. As I said, important absences, and Loja should know how to take advantage of them. GL!

LDU Loja (-0.75 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 3-2, HALF WON

Emelec - LDU Loja

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Both teams have started the league with a win, but the difference in quality is still there, in Emelec's favor. Today's hosts are gunning for the title, while their less famous opponents will probably be happy just to remain in the league. LDU have beaten El Nacional in the first league, but it was mainly because El Nacional have been playing awfully, despite having an extra-man for almost an hour. Nothing impressive from Loja's part, and I don't expect an enthusiastic result today, especially since they will miss two defenders (Omar de Jesus and Renan Calle) who are not fit. Meanwhile, Emelec produced a solid display against Espoli, winning it 2-1, and for today they will have some more good news, as two of their recent transfers will make their debut: striker Strahman (who has already scored for Emelec in a friendly match) and Edison Mendez (who returns to Ecuador after a bad injury-struck season in Brazil), who is likely to relish the return to Ecuadorian football. The handicap line is higher than my liking, but LDU shouldn't be much of a challenge for Emelec, and I can't see anything lower than a 2-0 for the hosts. GL!

Emelec (-1.25 AH) @ 1.73, 5/10

Result: 3-2, HALF LOST

LDU Loja - El Nacional

Ecuador, Serie A

I really don't think El Nacional should be an underdog here. Loja won Serie B last year, and have earned their promotion, 5 years after their previous experience in the top division, but they weren't too dominant as to really pose a threat to the top half teams of Serie A. Their squad consists mainly of local players, recruited from the club ranks (reserve team, juvenile team, etc) along with a few of the players that promoted the team and a couple of more experienced players. And that doesn't seem even close to enough to avoid the drop at the end of the season. This year, they could have some big chances to repeat their performances from 2005, when in Clausura they lost 11 out of 18 games. Against El Nacional they also have an awful record, losing all 4 matches, and at home they made some record breaking scores, losing 2-5 and 1-7. El Nacional looks well prepared for this tournament, having recorded good results in the friendlies that they played. The squad is more or less the same as last season, with a few additions, of course, and they once again look like mid-table material... and should be much better than Loja. GL!

El Nacional (-0.25 AH) @ 2.35, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST