Deportivo Cuenca - Manta

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!

Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Deportivo Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Cuenca will have a lot of squad problems for this match, paying the price for their indiscipline last round. They will have to face Deportivo Quito, one of the high-flying and most in-form teams in the league (currently on 2nd place), without 3 players and also without their head coach, all of them being sent off in their last match, the 1-2 defeat at Independiente. So, they will be without defenders Jerry Leon (8/1) and Moreira (20/0), and without forward Estupinan (23/9). Not many, and just 2 key players, but the coach will be forced to make some deep changes, especially in defense. And even without these absences, in their last matches, Cuenca was only able to snatch points against the mid-table or lower teams. Meanwhile, Deportivo Quito have been in great for at this stage, as they have 5 victories in 7 games, including victories against Emelec and U Catolica (currently sitting at 1st and 3rd place, respectively), and also an away win at Independiente (5th place). They will be pretty much with their best squad, and even though they are not a very spectacular team, they can gloat with a very stable and solid defense, conceding just 5 goals in this competition, and going with clean sheets for the last 5 matches. GL!

Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10
Result: 6-1, LOST

Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

After going against Independiente last round, we'll repeat the bet against Deportivo Cuenca, for pretty much the same reasons. They had a couple of absences last round against LDU Quito, and things aren't getting any better today. They will be missing 4 first team regulars today, 3 of which could well be considered key players in the team. Defenders Balbuena (13/0), Caicedo (13/0) and Ayala (8/0), plus midfielder Henry Leon (12/1) will be out of this game. And this is a serious blow for Independiente, as they do have quite a solid team, but rather a weak squad, and I doubt they'll have decent replacements. They are also in a downtrend, as they have 3 games without a win... and if we take away the draw with Emelec and the loss against LDU Quito, we'll see a shameful 0-3 defeat against El Nacional. Cuenca was recovering some form up until last round, when Deportivo Quito trashed them by 5-1. They have a couple of doubtful players, but only one of them is a key player (defender Moreira - 11/0), and there are some chances that he will recover in time. Independiente is a solid home team, but they take quite a different approach when playing as visitors, so I will definitely go on the hosts here, especially since Independiente is also missing it's core defense. GL!

Cuenca (-0.25) @ 2.14, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON

Deportivo Quito - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Awesome campaign from Deportivo Quito this year, in spite of all their administrative and financial problems. We all know the story: the players have been unpaid for quite some time now, and they have refused to train in more than one occasion. But they have also proven to be very professional, as when the time came, they showed up for the games and gave their best. That's why we can see them on second place, 5 points behind leaders Emelec, and with a chance to reduce the deficit to just 2 points if they win tonight (even though Emelec will have 2 games in hand). The only ones that were able to defeat them were Emelec, by a narrow 0-1, and at home Deportivo are still undefeated (6 wins and 1 draw against 3rd place Catolica). And spirits should be high now, as they come from a 3-1 whooping of city rivals LDU Quito, and the financial problems should end soon, as starting Friday, Deportivo are suspended if they don't sort their things out (meaning they will lose all points that will be disputed). Cuenca are enjoying a good run themselves, with 2 consecutive wins, but I'm not letting that fool me. They've beaten Macara (worst team in the league), and a troubled Barcelona, but overall, they are still poor. 5 defeats as visitors, from 7 games played, and the second worst defense of the league make Deportivo rightful favorites for this match. GL!

Deportivo Quito (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

During midweek, Emelec lost all chances to qualify for the final and challenge Barcelona for the title, so today they will be resting several of their regular players, in order to keep them safe and fit for the 2nd place play-off, to be played next week.From the reports, it looks like at least 6 regulars will be out, and their places will be filled by very little used players. Cuenca went through some financial issues earlier this week, but right now everything seems to have been taken care of, so they are ready to face Emelec. And they also have something to play for today. In order to qualify for a continental competition, they will need to be among the top 5 in the aggregate standings (4th and 5th will dispute a play-off), and they can only do that by winning today, as they are 2 points behind Loja, who have a very tough match against Independiente. So they can't afford not to win this match, and since Emelec will present a much weaker team than usual, this should go well as a home win (with an insurance in case of a draw). GL!

Cuenca DNB @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON

Deportivo Quito - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Deportivo Quito is yet another team involved in the relegation battle, and it would be almost inconceivable to see them in the second division. Just one point ahead of the safe line, tied on points with El Nacional, they would have to dig deep, because every point counts. They had a dreadful start of the season, but the good news is that they started to recover some form, as they are undefeated in the last 4 games, recording 3 wins meanwhile. Cuenca is also pretty much living off the points gathered in the first round, as right now they are almost as poor as Quito. The only difference is that while Quito is in recovery, Cuenca is stagnating, especially when they are visitors, holding a record of 1-1-6, with 4 goals scored and 12 conceded. Another tough match is expected, and I'm waiting for a low scoreline (as Quito is not known for being scoring-frenzy), but a home win should eventually be delivered. It's definitely worth a bet, especially since the odds went up a bit. GL!

Quito (-0.5 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Barcelona - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

A lot of important absences for Barcelona for this match,as they have really hit a bad run when it come to available players. Here's the list: defenders Jairo Campos (12/0), Oyola (8/0), Fricson Erazo (11/0) and Revoredo (2/1) are all injured (that makes 2 key defender, and their two main replacements). Besides this, midfielders Michael Quinonez (4/0), Carlos Gruezo (9/0) and Luis Caicedo (6/2) are all suspended, that's why coach Costas would pretty much have to rethink his entire team. And this catches them in quite a poor moment. Despite the international break, Barcelona have only won 2 games in the last 6 (one of them has been away at Cuenca,won 2-1, but I think today's match will be much different). Cuenca is a bit on the rise, as they won 2 out of their last 3 games, and have pretty much their full squad available. They still don't have a coach, as Pablo Bravo will still be interim, but with this line available, I don't see how we can lose. It will be a very difficult match for both teams, but I personally expect a low scoring match, with a void in the worst case scenario. GL!

Cuenca (+1 AH) @ 1.81, 4/10
Result: 4-1, LOST

LDU Loja - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Despite their lowly stature, LDU Loja is doing a great campaign in Copa Sudamericana, and their recent victory in Uruguay, against Nacional, saw them qualify to the main draw. And with this, they have also found a renewed confidence that they can go far in the competition, that is why the priority will be the continental cup, not the league. Therefore, today, coach Velez will be resting a lot of regulars, as the team returned from Uruguay only on Thursday, and with the match against Sao Paulo coming up, he wants to have all players fit. The line-up is not yet confirmed, but we can expect around 7 regulars to miss this match. This certainly won't help their case, as they couldn't find some for in the league anyway, and have only 2 wins in the last 10 games. Cuenca isn't much better either, just one point more in the standings, but here they should be favorites. I'm expecting a tight match here, as Cuenca usually keeps the result close, but without many of their key players, I don't see Loja winning this one. GL!

Cuenca (+0.5 AH) @ 1.76, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Odds went down a bit here, but the bet looks good enough to try it even now. Independiente have lost the first round like suckers, drawing with Loja, when a win would have been enough to qualify for the final of the league. They moved on, and they started this second round with a solid win over the same Loja, but today things should get a bit more complicated for them. First of all, they will have to play without a few key players: goalkeeper Azcona (21), defender Ramirez (17/0) and forward Solis (14/3). But the most important thing is that they always find it difficult to play against Cuenca, a team that managed to win both matches in the first round. That takes Cuenca to 6 consecutive wins against Independiente. They were in a very good run of form, finishing the first round with wins over Independiente and Barcelona, but they eventually had to stop their winning run last week, losing 0-1 at Emelec. Also, today we might see the debut of their new transfers: forwards Vazquez who came from Quilmes and Castillo from Lobos of Mexico. I expect Cuenca to continue their dominance over Independiente. GL!

Cuenca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Macara

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

The First Round of the Ecuadorian Serie A is entering it's final days, and while there are several teams that are fighting to get the ticket to the final, I'm setting my eyes on a different match, between two teams that are far from the title fight. Cuenca still has some chances, as with a win today they will be at least 3 points behind the leaders, with 2 rounds remaining. But with 6 teams fighting for the top position, it will be very hard for them to achieve it, as they would need a perfect run, and also a lot of luck. But a position for Copa Sudamericana (must finish in top 3 for this) is more than achievable. For today they will miss top scorer Laurito (11/7), so this will make things harder for them, but Chala (4/2) should get up to the challenge. Meanwhile, Manta don't have any immediate objectives, although all points should count, as they are one of the main favorites to relegate. Their away for has been awful, managing only 3 draws in 9 matches, and they also have 5 consecutive games without a win. Today they will also miss their regular goalkeeper Mora (15), their defender Gonzalez (15/1) and midfielder Lastra (16/1), so we should see an even weaker team than usual. Cuenca is solid at home, so they should win this by at least a minimum difference. GL!

Cuenca (-0.75 AH) @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Barcelona - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

One of the teams that lead one of the most aggressive transfer campaigns in the league, alongside LDU Quito, Barcelona will launch their title challenge tonight, against Deportivo Cuenca. Barcelona spent a lot of money, and transferred some good players, trying to get their way back to winning ways, and this year they are seriously being seen as title contenders. Besides their great form with which they ended last season (won 12 of the 22 matches from the Segunda Etapa), today we will see the debuts of defenders Erazo (from El Nacional) and Jairo Campos (previously in LDU, Atletico Mineiro and Deportivo Quito). In midfield we'll see Amaya, freshly crowned Colombian champion with Junior, while in attack will play Narciso Mina (awesome 2011 for him, with 28 goals scored for Independiente Jose Teran) and Luguercio, who came from Racing Club of Argentina. Cuenca has instead opted to go with pretty much the same team as last season, along a few new signings, but none of them can be considered a key transfer. And since last year Cuenca were rather unstable, I don't expect many things from them this year either. Barcelona's squad looks very good, and they should kick-off their campaign with a win. GL!

Barcelona (-0.75 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Manta - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

This bet might seem as a bit of a stretch, especially if we look at Manta's recent form, but I see small value over here, and I'm going for it. Manta have indeed been in poor form, winning only 4 points in this second stage, and being without a win in the last 6 matches. But that should be history now, as last week they have signed a new coach, so I'm also counting a bit on the 'new coach effect'. Then we should look at Cuenca, whom I don't see as a much better team. They have been very unstable so far, and although they manage to snatch some good results against some of the good teams (won with LDU and Emelec), they also manage to fail miserably when they are favorites for a game (drew at Olmedo, and lost at Imbabura and LDU Loja). Manta was normally a pretty strong home team, and with coach Osma I expect some improvements in the team (especially since they can't get any worse than they were). Cuenca will miss striker Govea, who is still injured. In mutual matches, we can once again see why Manta should be considered a solid home team, as they have lost only 1 of their last 8 matches played on the Jocay stadium. I see this game as 50-50, that's why I see some small value in this bet, and I'm going to take it small. GL!

Manta DNB @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

This is the bet of the day in my opinion, and I will thankfully take the nice odds on El Nacional. Cuenca's bounce-back has already begun, after a great start of the season, they are now on a run of 4 matches without a win. In their defense, they did play with Emelec (twice) and LDU, but they also had the first leg with El Nacional, at home, which they managed to draw in the 94th minute, taking a pretty much undeserved point. That's why I expected El Nacional to be somehow bigger favorites today, but it's much better this way. El Nacional is in good form now, having not lost in their previous 5 games, including a winning run on their home ground of 3 matches (Independiente, Emelec and Espoli), without a single goal conceded. For Cuenca, along their drop in form, there are also other problems, as they will be missing 3 key players of the team: central defenders Castro and Ledesma are suspended, same as defensive midfielder Godoy, all of them being very important pieces of the team, that will let the team very vulnerable to El Nacional's attacks. Head-to-head is also encouraging the hosts, as they haven't lost in their last 6 matches against Cuenca (last 5 were draws though), while at home, in the last 10 years, they have only lost 3 times, from 22 matches played. GL!

El Nacional (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 5/10

Result: 4-2, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Just 10 days after their first game of the year, Emelec and Cuenca will again clash, only this time it will be in the reverse fixture. The match was postponed because of Emelec's Libertadores duties, where a 0-0 draw in Bolivia worsened their goal-scoring crisis, and also pretty much sees them out of the competition (They need to win in Brazil to qualify, or to get at least a draw to keep hoping). So now it's back to the league for them, where Emelec could tie leaders Deportivo Quito on points, if they win today. Coach Asad will throw Strahman back in the attack, where he will make a couple with Menendez, in an attempt to break their drought that extends for two matches. Another good piece of news for them is the return of goalkeeper Klimowicz, so that should also give the team more security. Emelec isn't playing bad, but lately they had some serious problems in finding the goal, despite controlling most of the match and trying to create chances. The match between them and Cuenca from ten days ago followed this pattern, and I'm pretty sure that it will be the same tonight as well, as Cuenca usually fails when playing against better and more experienced teams. So it should probably just be up to Emelec's strikers to score their chances, and hopefully, they will be helped by a couple of missing that Cuenca could have in defense, as both Castro and Ledesma are doubtful. GL!

Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON

Emelec - Deportivo Cuenca

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Well, the moment we've all been waiting for, the moment when Cuenca finally lost, has come last round, when they lost at home against LDU Quito, despite several important absences in Liga's team. Cuenca weren't expected to have much of an impact this season, but surprisingly they were undefeated until last round. However, their game got weaker and weaker after a good start of the season, and in the last few rounds they just with some of the bad teams of the league (Liga de Loja, Olmedo, Barcelona, El Nacional), managed some narrow wins against Imbabura and Manta, before finally succumbing to defeat against LDU. So now, I'm expecting their results to drop even more, as their first defeat should have a detrimental effect on morale, and since most of their players are quite young, that should weight a lot. They won 3 of their 5 away matches, but have only played against teams from the lower half of the table. With Emelec it should be another story, and despite the Electrics having a few absences (the goalkeeper, a defender, a midfielder), I still see them as clear favorites, as it should be a repeat of last round's scenario. Emelec's morale should be at the top, as they have stringed 3 consecutive victories, in all of them making some rotations in order to keep the players fit. A slightly more offensive formation is expected today, as Cuenca will most likely sit in defense. A win tonight will put Emelec level on points with Deportivo Quito, and with quality and experience on their side, I just can't see them losing. GL!

Emelec (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Going for a surprise result here. Ever since the season has started, me (and probably others) have been expecting Deportivo Cuenca to crumble into pieces. The reasons for that are the massive change that took place in the team since the end of last season until the start of the new one. Cuenca had some financial problems, and they had to give up on a lot of their more experienced (and high-paid) players, so for 2011 they started with a very young team, with little experience. But, their recent results have been confusing for everybody, as after the first 8 rounds, they are the only undefeated team in Ecuador, with 4 wins and 4 draws. Still, their only 2 matches against more serious opponents were at home, against Deportivo Quito and Barcelona, and they drew in both. I'm still expecting them to lose anytime now, and maybe today it will be a good chance for that happening. They will miss 2 regulars: defender Carlos Castro (injured) and midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (suspended). El Nacional passed over their scratchy start of the season, and found 2 consecutive wins, against Independiente and Emelec. That will surely help with the morale as they visit Cuenca. Worth mentioning is that the hosts are 1-2-0 at home, and the last 4 matches played between these teams (all of them last season) have finished 0-0. Good chances for another draw today, or perhaps it's time for Cuenca to finally lose against a team that seems to have found it's form. GL!

El Nacional (+0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Deportivo Cuenca - Macara

Ecuador Primera Division, Segunda Fase

Deportivo Cuenca is playing the cards that has left, as they aim either for a 3rd place in the aggregate standings, either for a 1st place finish in the Second Phase, allowing them to fight for the title with Emelec. But either way, with a win today they will be in a win-win situation, as their direct rivals in the tables, Barcelona in the aggregate and LDU in the Second Phase, are facing each other. So, assuming Cuenca gets the 3 points against Macara, they will either move to 1 point of LDU for the final, either tie Barcelona on points for the 3rd spot in the general. As, I said, they can only win after this round. They are also in a small slump of form, as they have 2 consecutive lost matches, the only ones in their last 10, so they need to snap out of it as soon as possible, if they are to hold some realistic chances of qualifying to Libertadores. And today's opponent should suit them perfectly. Macara are last in the general standings, 5 points behind the first team above the red line, and with only 3 games remaining, it appears they have taken a bow and given up the fight. That is why their coach has decided to test some youngsters for the next season, and took some players from the youth team, 2 defenders (19 and 20 years), and 2 midfielders (18 and 19 years). That also shows some lack of ambition for the remaining matches, so I guess an easy win for Cuenca should be expected here. GL!

Deportivo Cuenca (-1.25 AH) @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Deportivo Cuenca - CD Espoli

Ecuador Segunda Etapa

Low odds on this one, but I doubt Cuenca will let the win go past them. They seem to be the only ones capable of putting some pressure on the leaders at the moment, and with LDU's schedule getting more and more tight, Cuenca has some real chances to play the final again. Their recent form, especially on home ground, doesn't seem to be too encouraging, but you have to look against whom they played, because 2 draws, one against leaders LDU, and the other one against Emelec are always good results. And finally, they seem to have broken the drawing run, with a good performance this week at U Catolica. Full team for them today, with the exception of youngster Narvaez, who is injured.

Espoli still have a long road to pass in order to avoid relegation, and it's going to be very tough. Their hopes lie in their pretty solid home performances, because in away games, with only 2 victories, they can't expect too much, especially since every time they have visited one of the main contenders for the title, they have lost with a solid difference in goals. Cuenca has found it's form, and I expect them to unleash it against poor Espoli. Handicaps could also be tried, once they become available. GL!

Deportivo Cuenca @ 1.65, bet365, 6/10

Result: 2-1, WON