Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
LDU Quito are still favorites, or at least on par, against pretty much everyone in the Ecuadorian league except the big guns. That's obviously a sign that the bookies are setting the odds based on the team's name, and they also expect them to get back into form sooner rather than later. But from what I've seen, that seems unlikely to happen anytime soon. LDU are playing without too many ideas, and even the players and the coach agree that there isn't too much you can ask from the team currently. Their famous offensive game is no more, as they are constantly struggling to create danger for the opposition. That's why we have a very rare statistic, with them having the second worst offense in the league. Their main focus is to destroy the plays, instead of trying to build some fluid actions. Worth mentioning: they only scored 1 goal in 6 away games!!! Catolica is one of the better teams in the league, and are also pleasant to the eye, constantly trying to get forward as soon and as efficiently as possible. They won't have it easy, that's for sure, as it is very difficult to play against a team bent on destroying good football, but they do have what it takes to win against LDU. They won the last 3 games against LDU, who only got worse as time went by, so they have a good platform to build on. GL!
Catolica DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON
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Showing posts with label Serie A. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Serie A. Show all posts
Apr 19, 2014
Mar 24, 2014
Emelec - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
LDU (+0.75 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10
Result: 3-0, LOST
Despite what the table is showing, with 7 places and 8
points separating them, this surely won’t be a walk in the park for Emelec.
Their packed schedule is bound to catch up with them sooner rather than later,
and there are already complaints about fatigue, after a tough match with Leon
and a very long voyage to and from Mexico. So I’m quite sure that there will be
some players who will be rested, because they won’t be able to give their 100%
anyway. LDU Quito are still in reconstruction, so it was expected that they
would struggle this season as well. However, they look quite solid
defensive-wise, and they’ve only conceded 2 goals in 4 visits. And there will
definitely be some extra-motivation for them in this derby, so I really don’t
see the hosts going for an easy win. Emelec only won 3 of their last 8 games
with LDU, and none of those victories was by more than a goal’s margin, and I
don’t see that changing here. I’m eyeing a draw here, but it’s nice to have
some insurance in case of a narrow Emelec win. GL!
LDU (+0.75 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10
Result: 3-0, LOST
Feb 2, 2014
LDU Loja - Barcelona
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
I fancy Barcelona quite a lot this season, and even though the start has been rather difficult, I'm counting on a constant increase in form. They've made some good signings during the off-season, so I'm really expecting them to challenge Emelec for the title (they are pretty much the only ones that can do it), and we should only mention the signings of Laurito and Nieto (the top scorers of the 2013 season - they have more than 50 goals between themselves) to know that they mean business. And today will be the first match when they both start as regulars, so I'm obviously confident and excited that there will be some goals. However, the back looked shaky throughout their first two matches, and Loja is a team that can really hurt you if they find the spaces. Both their matches this season ended with several goals, and I'm counting on the talented Fabio Renato to pull something off here (Ivan Kaviedes can also play, after serving a suspension, but he isn't announced as a starter). Loja always played offensively, so I'm definitely expecting some goals here, especially since last year, these two teams had three over 2.5 games from four matches played. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
I fancy Barcelona quite a lot this season, and even though the start has been rather difficult, I'm counting on a constant increase in form. They've made some good signings during the off-season, so I'm really expecting them to challenge Emelec for the title (they are pretty much the only ones that can do it), and we should only mention the signings of Laurito and Nieto (the top scorers of the 2013 season - they have more than 50 goals between themselves) to know that they mean business. And today will be the first match when they both start as regulars, so I'm obviously confident and excited that there will be some goals. However, the back looked shaky throughout their first two matches, and Loja is a team that can really hurt you if they find the spaces. Both their matches this season ended with several goals, and I'm counting on the talented Fabio Renato to pull something off here (Ivan Kaviedes can also play, after serving a suspension, but he isn't announced as a starter). Loja always played offensively, so I'm definitely expecting some goals here, especially since last year, these two teams had three over 2.5 games from four matches played. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Jan 27, 2014
Olmedo - Barcelona SC
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Barcelona (-0.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Barcelona (-0.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Jan 25, 2014
Nov 25, 2013
Barcelona - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
The odds are set totally wrong for this match, if you ask me, as I see a rather equal affair. Both teams are hoping of qualifying for a continental cup (tied on points in the general classification, with Barcelona on a qualification spot, due to better goal difference), both had a pretty horrendous second half of the season, and both are somehow recovering their form. Even in the Segunda Etapa's standings, they are fairly evenly matched, with Barcelona holding just a 3 points advantage over LDU. Now, let's check out their results and their form: despite having one of their poorest seasons in recent years, LDU have only lost 4 out of 18 matches, as they excelled in draws: 10. That being said, they drew 6 of their last 10 games, and only lost once. And from those draws, 2 were against Emelec and 2 were against Deportivo Quito, both of them being more solid teams than Barcelona, which shows us that LDU are no pushovers, and can really focus when it comes to big games. And besides all of this, Barcelona and LDU also have a long history of equal matches, since out of their last 15 games, they recorded 9 draws. Hopefully, the trend will continue, and considering all the facts, I'll say it again: Barcelona are by no means such big favorites as the bookies try to make them. GL!
LDU (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
The odds are set totally wrong for this match, if you ask me, as I see a rather equal affair. Both teams are hoping of qualifying for a continental cup (tied on points in the general classification, with Barcelona on a qualification spot, due to better goal difference), both had a pretty horrendous second half of the season, and both are somehow recovering their form. Even in the Segunda Etapa's standings, they are fairly evenly matched, with Barcelona holding just a 3 points advantage over LDU. Now, let's check out their results and their form: despite having one of their poorest seasons in recent years, LDU have only lost 4 out of 18 matches, as they excelled in draws: 10. That being said, they drew 6 of their last 10 games, and only lost once. And from those draws, 2 were against Emelec and 2 were against Deportivo Quito, both of them being more solid teams than Barcelona, which shows us that LDU are no pushovers, and can really focus when it comes to big games. And besides all of this, Barcelona and LDU also have a long history of equal matches, since out of their last 15 games, they recorded 9 draws. Hopefully, the trend will continue, and considering all the facts, I'll say it again: Barcelona are by no means such big favorites as the bookies try to make them. GL!
LDU (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
Nov 10, 2013
Macara - Independiente
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!
Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Independiente have it all to play for: With a win today, they could catch-up to Emelec at the top of the table, or at least they can keep putting pressure on them. After that, they also have to secure their participation in the two cups, Libertadores and Sudamericana, and they can clinch both of them by finishing the year on 2nd place in the aggregate table (in case a final won't be played - if Emelec wins the Segunda Etapa). They currently have 5 points over the 3rd place, with 5 games remaining, so there's no place for a wrong step. On the other side, we have a Macara side that are all but mathematically relegated. They are 14 points behind the safe zone, so we can say that it's impossible for them to get something. Even more, the coach left for Argentina, taking a couple of players with him, while a few other players have been removed from the team, trying to reconstruct it's squad. That's why today we'll only see around 3-4 of their main regular players. They will probably try to prove themselves, but morale is low, and they'll face a very solid team that is gunning for the title. Also, Independiente have 3/3 against Manta this season, with a goal difference of 11-1. The odds aren't great at all, but the away win should be a lock. GL!
Independiente (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Deportivo Cuenca - Manta
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!
Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Deportivo Cuenca are in all kinds of problems, as they have a list of 6 players unavailable for this match (4 of them suspended and 2 not taken into account). But from those 6, we only need to mention 4, who are all key players. Their main absences are: defenders Andres Lopez (16/2) and Edder Fuertes (15/0), midfielder Gregory Gonzalez (15/0) and forward Estupinan (9/3). So they should be taking quite a hit for this match, and I'm sure they will struggle at least a bit, in front of an opponent that is never like a walk in the park. It is true, both teams have been in poor form recently (Cuenca has 7 games without a win, while Manta have 5 - but 4 of them have been defeats), and Manta are very poor away from home, but under these conditions, I do favor them to take at least one point. None of them have been showing anything solid, so it should be considered an equal game at least, therefore the current line has value (I would have set the lines to 0.25). Besides, Manta should also have a morale advantage here, as they haven't lost this year to Cuenca, and have won 2 out of 3 direct matches. GL!
Manta (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Oct 5, 2013
Deportivo Quito - Manta
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Once
again, I'm going with Deportivo Quito. I still trust them, despite
their recent slumps, and they have proved before that they can get over
their financial and administrative problems. They have a good squad, and
should bounce back. After 3 consecutive defeats and 5 games without
winning, they have dropped
to 7th in the table, therefore a win today is imperative if they want
to stay in touch with the top positions. And we can't blame them too
much for these last games: two of them were at strong home teams like
Cuenca and Manta, one was the Clasico of Quito, and the other two were
against a recovering Barcelona. So the schedule wasn't really in their
favor. But today, they should have it easier... the revenge factor
should be present, as they lost 0-3 at Manta just one month ago, and
Manta are a totally different team when playing away from home, with a
record of 1-0-4. Deportivo has pretty much a full squad, and seem to be
quite motivated, so I trust in a home win today. Hopefully, it will be
by quite a difference. GL!
Deportivo (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Result: 1-0, VOID
Sep 23, 2013
Barcelona - Deportivo Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Once again we have here some very disproportionate odds. These two teams met last week, and in what can be deemed as a surprise, Barcelona won in Quito by 2-1, so Deportivo's thirst for revenge should be fresh. We all know about their problems, financially and managerially, but that hasn't stopped them from playing well above expectations, as they find themselves on 6th place with 17 points (6 more than Barcelona). They were in quite a nice form, up until 4 matches ago, when they lost inexplicably at Cuenca 1-6. After that they drew 0-0 in the Clasico of Quito, against LDU, lost a match where the main players went on strike and lost with Barcelona. But despite their troubles, the players want to recover their form, and finish the season as well as possible. And Barcelona are not a team that can be considered 1.50 favorites. They are simply poor this season, and have only won 2 games from the 11 that they've played (count here a couple of scoreless draws with bottom teams like Quevedo or Macara). Also keep in mind that these clashes are usually very tight affairs, ending in either one-goal wins or draws, so I think that worst case scenario here, we'll have a half-lost. But Quito are much better than that (and better than Barcelona, for that matter), and I'm confident they'll take some points tonight. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Once again we have here some very disproportionate odds. These two teams met last week, and in what can be deemed as a surprise, Barcelona won in Quito by 2-1, so Deportivo's thirst for revenge should be fresh. We all know about their problems, financially and managerially, but that hasn't stopped them from playing well above expectations, as they find themselves on 6th place with 17 points (6 more than Barcelona). They were in quite a nice form, up until 4 matches ago, when they lost inexplicably at Cuenca 1-6. After that they drew 0-0 in the Clasico of Quito, against LDU, lost a match where the main players went on strike and lost with Barcelona. But despite their troubles, the players want to recover their form, and finish the season as well as possible. And Barcelona are not a team that can be considered 1.50 favorites. They are simply poor this season, and have only won 2 games from the 11 that they've played (count here a couple of scoreless draws with bottom teams like Quevedo or Macara). Also keep in mind that these clashes are usually very tight affairs, ending in either one-goal wins or draws, so I think that worst case scenario here, we'll have a half-lost. But Quito are much better than that (and better than Barcelona, for that matter), and I'm confident they'll take some points tonight. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 17, 2013
Deportivo Cuenca - Deportivo Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Deportivo Cuenca will have a lot of squad problems for this match, paying the price for their indiscipline last round. They will have to face Deportivo Quito, one of the high-flying and most in-form teams in the league (currently on 2nd place), without 3 players and also without their head coach, all of them being sent off in their last match, the 1-2 defeat at Independiente. So, they will be without defenders Jerry Leon (8/1) and Moreira (20/0), and without forward Estupinan (23/9). Not many, and just 2 key players, but the coach will be forced to make some deep changes, especially in defense. And even without these absences, in their last matches, Cuenca was only able to snatch points against the mid-table or lower teams. Meanwhile, Deportivo Quito have been in great for at this stage, as they have 5 victories in 7 games, including victories against Emelec and U Catolica (currently sitting at 1st and 3rd place, respectively), and also an away win at Independiente (5th place). They will be pretty much with their best squad, and even though they are not a very spectacular team, they can gloat with a very stable and solid defense, conceding just 5 goals in this competition, and going with clean sheets for the last 5 matches. GL!
Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10
Result: 6-1, LOST
Deportivo Cuenca will have a lot of squad problems for this match, paying the price for their indiscipline last round. They will have to face Deportivo Quito, one of the high-flying and most in-form teams in the league (currently on 2nd place), without 3 players and also without their head coach, all of them being sent off in their last match, the 1-2 defeat at Independiente. So, they will be without defenders Jerry Leon (8/1) and Moreira (20/0), and without forward Estupinan (23/9). Not many, and just 2 key players, but the coach will be forced to make some deep changes, especially in defense. And even without these absences, in their last matches, Cuenca was only able to snatch points against the mid-table or lower teams. Meanwhile, Deportivo Quito have been in great for at this stage, as they have 5 victories in 7 games, including victories against Emelec and U Catolica (currently sitting at 1st and 3rd place, respectively), and also an away win at Independiente (5th place). They will be pretty much with their best squad, and even though they are not a very spectacular team, they can gloat with a very stable and solid defense, conceding just 5 goals in this competition, and going with clean sheets for the last 5 matches. GL!
Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10
Result: 6-1, LOST
Aug 16, 2013
U Catolica - Emelec
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!
Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!
Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Aug 11, 2013
Deportivo Quito - Universidad Catolica
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
Two of the top performers in the Ecuadorian league will face each other today, as league leaders Universidad Catolica will be looking to secure their top spot even further. They are in red hot form in this stage, as they've had 5 consecutive wins which ended abruptly last week, with a 2-3 home defeat against Independiente. They have the best offense so far, with 14 goals scored, and this proves how effective their offensive play is. Deportivo Quito are right behind them, 2 points adrift, and they are also in very good form, winning 4 of their 6 matches played, and being undefeated in their last 5 games. Their number of goals scored is not so impressive, with just 6 goals, but they also like to play offensive football. Also, within the ranks of Deportivo Quito and U Catolica we have the top 2 best scorers of the league, with Nieto having 22 goals scored so far, and with Laurito having 17 for Catolica. One more thing worth mentioning is that both of their mutual matches from this season have ended with 2-2 draws, so this is very encouraging for this bet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Two of the top performers in the Ecuadorian league will face each other today, as league leaders Universidad Catolica will be looking to secure their top spot even further. They are in red hot form in this stage, as they've had 5 consecutive wins which ended abruptly last week, with a 2-3 home defeat against Independiente. They have the best offense so far, with 14 goals scored, and this proves how effective their offensive play is. Deportivo Quito are right behind them, 2 points adrift, and they are also in very good form, winning 4 of their 6 matches played, and being undefeated in their last 5 games. Their number of goals scored is not so impressive, with just 6 goals, but they also like to play offensive football. Also, within the ranks of Deportivo Quito and U Catolica we have the top 2 best scorers of the league, with Nieto having 22 goals scored so far, and with Laurito having 17 for Catolica. One more thing worth mentioning is that both of their mutual matches from this season have ended with 2-2 draws, so this is very encouraging for this bet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Jul 21, 2013
Deportivo Quito - El Nacional
Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
I see some nice value here. Cuenca have improved recently, it's true, but not so much to put them down with +0.25, or low +0.5, against Deportivo Quito. Despite all their constant problems, the hosts have been performing well this season, and despite starting the second stage with a hick-up (0-4 at Loja), they recovered nicely with 2 wins, including one in a very tough game away at Independiente. The only important team news for them is the return of regular goalkeeper Carini, who comes back after a two-match ban, so this should provide them a small boost. As I said, El Nacional recovered after the worst start in their history (6 consecutive defeats in the first 6 rounds, and 9 defeats after the first 10 rounds). They are looking stable at the moment, results-wise, as they are undefeated in the last 5 games... but don't let that fool you: the only big merit for them is beating LDU Quito, because the other 4 games were played against Cuenca and Macara... both are lowly teams, and El Nacional only managed to win a game from those 4. Deportivo has the strength and the quality to see them off tonight, and I'll happily take them at these line/odds. GL!
Deportivo Quito (-0.25 AH) @ 1.79, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST
Jul 1, 2013
Barcelona - Quevedo
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Barcelona is also without an option to get something from this Stage, but they are happy and content with the recovery the team made, after a disastrous start of the season, when the main focus was on Copa Libertadores. Once that ended, they were able to fully focus on the league, and we can see the results, having lost just one game from the last 10 played. Their main objective today is to keep improving and to end the stage on a high note, to give them a base to work on for the second stage. However, things will be made harder by a couple of high profile absences, as goalkeeper Banguera (20) and defenders Perlaza (17/0) and Erazo (16/0). That should leave quite a big hole in the defense, and Quevedo could be able to punish them, especially if they play like they did last round, when they came back into the match from 1-3 down, to beat Deportivo Quito by 4-3. Nothing at stake here, so the teams should be able to play freely, and if we combine this with those defensive absences that Barcelona has, we should most likely see several goals here. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Jun 30, 2013
U Catolica - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
The last round of the First Phase of the Ecuadorian Serie A will provide us a couple of very interesting match-ups. The first is to be found in Quito, where Universidad Catolica will face a resigned LDU Quito. The visitors tried hard to gun down the leaders, after a nice come-back (combined with a few wrong steps of Emelec), but right now everything is clear and they have to settle for a place on the podium. For today, they will be missing a few very important player: defender Araujo (17/0) and midfielders Saritama (15/1), Vera (14/0) and Madrid (12/1) are all recovering from injuries and are deemed unfit to play, while forwards Vitti (18/7) and Puppo (5/2) won't continue with the club, and won't participate today. That leaves LDU without 5 key players for this game, and without any objective left, so they shouldn't pose much of a threat. Catolica wants to end the year in the best possible way, the coach will use the same team that lost 0-1 with Emelec last week (after a very pleasant display) and I'm sure they will relish a win against their illustrious city rivals. LDU only won once as visitors, in 4 games, and I seriously doubt they will do it today.
Catolica (+0.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST
The last round of the First Phase of the Ecuadorian Serie A will provide us a couple of very interesting match-ups. The first is to be found in Quito, where Universidad Catolica will face a resigned LDU Quito. The visitors tried hard to gun down the leaders, after a nice come-back (combined with a few wrong steps of Emelec), but right now everything is clear and they have to settle for a place on the podium. For today, they will be missing a few very important player: defender Araujo (17/0) and midfielders Saritama (15/1), Vera (14/0) and Madrid (12/1) are all recovering from injuries and are deemed unfit to play, while forwards Vitti (18/7) and Puppo (5/2) won't continue with the club, and won't participate today. That leaves LDU without 5 key players for this game, and without any objective left, so they shouldn't pose much of a threat. Catolica wants to end the year in the best possible way, the coach will use the same team that lost 0-1 with Emelec last week (after a very pleasant display) and I'm sure they will relish a win against their illustrious city rivals. LDU only won once as visitors, in 4 games, and I seriously doubt they will do it today.
Catolica (+0.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST
Jun 23, 2013
LDU Quito - El Nacional
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
As the First Stage of the Ecuadorian league is entering it's final rounds, there 4 teams that are still gunning for the first place. Everybody is waiting for another misstep from Emelec in order to achieve something, but they'll be fighting until the very end. Liga de Quito is one of the challengers, as they are currently sitting just 3 points behind the leaders, and if they are to keep hoping, they'll have to win all their remaining games. Today it will be against El Nacional, a team that has recently found some form, although they are still very poor when leaving their home stadium (they have a 1-17 record on the road). LDU haven't been the same as in previous years, not even at home where they bolster a record of 6-1-2, but they are also in good form, and the chance to tie Emelec on points should give them some extra-motivation. History is also on their side, as they have won 9 of the last 10 home duels against El Nacional, and are looking good to increase those numbers. GL!
LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON
As the First Stage of the Ecuadorian league is entering it's final rounds, there 4 teams that are still gunning for the first place. Everybody is waiting for another misstep from Emelec in order to achieve something, but they'll be fighting until the very end. Liga de Quito is one of the challengers, as they are currently sitting just 3 points behind the leaders, and if they are to keep hoping, they'll have to win all their remaining games. Today it will be against El Nacional, a team that has recently found some form, although they are still very poor when leaving their home stadium (they have a 1-17 record on the road). LDU haven't been the same as in previous years, not even at home where they bolster a record of 6-1-2, but they are also in good form, and the chance to tie Emelec on points should give them some extra-motivation. History is also on their side, as they have won 9 of the last 10 home duels against El Nacional, and are looking good to increase those numbers. GL!
LDU (-0.75 AH) @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON
May 24, 2013
Barcelona - Deportivo Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
The opening odds were suggesting that Barcelona should have a rather easy match here, and only the margin of their victory is in doubt. But I disagree with that, and I think that these odds are just an overreaction after Barcelona's win against Emelec, and due to Deportivo Quito's internal problems and their threats of not traveling for the game. But this crisis is close to a solution, as Deportivo's players have received some of the postponed payments. And besides, these issues have been ever present for at least 3 months, and this never stopped them from taking on each game with professionalism (they have lost a single game this season). Full team is expected for Deportivo Quito, with the only absent being midfielder Luis Romero (14/1). Otherwise, all the big names are set to start, including striker Nieto (13 goals in 14 games) and winger Colon (14/8). Same story with Barcelona, as they will also have a full squad at their disposal, with the exception of midfielder Matias Oyola (14/1). They may have improved lately in the league, but I'm still not convinced that they will be able to fight at the top. And besides, Deportivo is traditionally a team that poses a lot of problems: in the last 15 direct games played in Guayaquil, Barcelona did manage to win the majority, but only 3 of them have been by more than a one-goal advantage. And if we look at the teams now, Deportivo looks better. I'd go for a draw here, but the handicap is the safer solution. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
The opening odds were suggesting that Barcelona should have a rather easy match here, and only the margin of their victory is in doubt. But I disagree with that, and I think that these odds are just an overreaction after Barcelona's win against Emelec, and due to Deportivo Quito's internal problems and their threats of not traveling for the game. But this crisis is close to a solution, as Deportivo's players have received some of the postponed payments. And besides, these issues have been ever present for at least 3 months, and this never stopped them from taking on each game with professionalism (they have lost a single game this season). Full team is expected for Deportivo Quito, with the only absent being midfielder Luis Romero (14/1). Otherwise, all the big names are set to start, including striker Nieto (13 goals in 14 games) and winger Colon (14/8). Same story with Barcelona, as they will also have a full squad at their disposal, with the exception of midfielder Matias Oyola (14/1). They may have improved lately in the league, but I'm still not convinced that they will be able to fight at the top. And besides, Deportivo is traditionally a team that poses a lot of problems: in the last 15 direct games played in Guayaquil, Barcelona did manage to win the majority, but only 3 of them have been by more than a one-goal advantage. And if we look at the teams now, Deportivo looks better. I'd go for a draw here, but the handicap is the safer solution. GL!
Deportivo (+0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
May 12, 2013
Deportivo Cuenca - Independiente
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
After going against Independiente last round, we'll repeat the bet against Deportivo Cuenca, for pretty much the same reasons. They had a couple of absences last round against LDU Quito, and things aren't getting any better today. They will be missing 4 first team regulars today, 3 of which could well be considered key players in the team. Defenders Balbuena (13/0), Caicedo (13/0) and Ayala (8/0), plus midfielder Henry Leon (12/1) will be out of this game. And this is a serious blow for Independiente, as they do have quite a solid team, but rather a weak squad, and I doubt they'll have decent replacements. They are also in a downtrend, as they have 3 games without a win... and if we take away the draw with Emelec and the loss against LDU Quito, we'll see a shameful 0-3 defeat against El Nacional. Cuenca was recovering some form up until last round, when Deportivo Quito trashed them by 5-1. They have a couple of doubtful players, but only one of them is a key player (defender Moreira - 11/0), and there are some chances that he will recover in time. Independiente is a solid home team, but they take quite a different approach when playing as visitors, so I will definitely go on the hosts here, especially since Independiente is also missing it's core defense. GL!
Cuenca (-0.25) @ 2.14, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
After going against Independiente last round, we'll repeat the bet against Deportivo Cuenca, for pretty much the same reasons. They had a couple of absences last round against LDU Quito, and things aren't getting any better today. They will be missing 4 first team regulars today, 3 of which could well be considered key players in the team. Defenders Balbuena (13/0), Caicedo (13/0) and Ayala (8/0), plus midfielder Henry Leon (12/1) will be out of this game. And this is a serious blow for Independiente, as they do have quite a solid team, but rather a weak squad, and I doubt they'll have decent replacements. They are also in a downtrend, as they have 3 games without a win... and if we take away the draw with Emelec and the loss against LDU Quito, we'll see a shameful 0-3 defeat against El Nacional. Cuenca was recovering some form up until last round, when Deportivo Quito trashed them by 5-1. They have a couple of doubtful players, but only one of them is a key player (defender Moreira - 11/0), and there are some chances that he will recover in time. Independiente is a solid home team, but they take quite a different approach when playing as visitors, so I will definitely go on the hosts here, especially since Independiente is also missing it's core defense. GL!
Cuenca (-0.25) @ 2.14, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
May 9, 2013
Independiente - LDU Quito
Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa
These teams are currently occupying the 4th and 5th place in the league standings, some way behind leaders Emelec. However, the spirits are quite different, as Independiente's place is quite a feat, as they are usually a mid-table team fighting for survival, while LDU is gunning for the title. So obviously, the fans are not thrilled with this 4th place, and there are a lot of voices calling for some changes, after a recent bad run. Actually, both teams are coming from defeats here: Independiente lost 0-3 at lowly El Nacional, while LDU has 2 consecutive defeats, 0-3 at Barcelona and 1-3 against Deportivo Quito. So this is pretty much a do or die game for them. However, if we look at their results this season, all of their 4 defeats came against the big guns (Emelec, Barcelona and Deportivo Quito twice). Meanwhile, despite the fact that Independiente are undefeated at home, they have lost against some of the lower ranked teams (the aforementioned trashing against El Nacional, plus defeats at U Catolica and Manta). This is going to be tight, but Independiente has a few very important absences tonight: from a not so stable defense, they will miss Edgar Balbuena (13/0), in addition to midfielder Henry Leon (12/1) and forward Daniel Angulo (11/3). LDU also has a couple of absences, like midfielders Fernando Hidalgo (10/1) and Enrique Vera (11/0), but since they have a bigger squad, and a better squad - quality wise - they should also have better cover than Independiente has for their missing players. GL!
LDU Quito DNB @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
These teams are currently occupying the 4th and 5th place in the league standings, some way behind leaders Emelec. However, the spirits are quite different, as Independiente's place is quite a feat, as they are usually a mid-table team fighting for survival, while LDU is gunning for the title. So obviously, the fans are not thrilled with this 4th place, and there are a lot of voices calling for some changes, after a recent bad run. Actually, both teams are coming from defeats here: Independiente lost 0-3 at lowly El Nacional, while LDU has 2 consecutive defeats, 0-3 at Barcelona and 1-3 against Deportivo Quito. So this is pretty much a do or die game for them. However, if we look at their results this season, all of their 4 defeats came against the big guns (Emelec, Barcelona and Deportivo Quito twice). Meanwhile, despite the fact that Independiente are undefeated at home, they have lost against some of the lower ranked teams (the aforementioned trashing against El Nacional, plus defeats at U Catolica and Manta). This is going to be tight, but Independiente has a few very important absences tonight: from a not so stable defense, they will miss Edgar Balbuena (13/0), in addition to midfielder Henry Leon (12/1) and forward Daniel Angulo (11/3). LDU also has a couple of absences, like midfielders Fernando Hidalgo (10/1) and Enrique Vera (11/0), but since they have a bigger squad, and a better squad - quality wise - they should also have better cover than Independiente has for their missing players. GL!
LDU Quito DNB @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
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