U Catolica - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

LDU Quito are still favorites, or at least on par, against pretty much everyone in the Ecuadorian league except the big guns. That's obviously a sign that the bookies are setting the odds based on the team's name, and they also expect them to get back into form sooner rather than later. But from what I've seen, that seems unlikely to happen anytime soon. LDU are playing without too many ideas, and even the players and the coach agree that there isn't too much you can ask from the team currently. Their famous offensive game is no more, as they are constantly struggling to create danger for the opposition. That's why we have a very rare statistic, with them having the second worst offense in the league. Their main focus is to destroy the plays, instead of trying to build some fluid actions. Worth mentioning: they only scored 1 goal in 6 away games!!! Catolica is one of the better teams in the league, and are also pleasant to the eye, constantly trying to get forward as soon and as efficiently as possible. They won't have it easy, that's for sure, as it is very difficult to play against a team bent on destroying good football, but they do have what it takes to win against LDU. They won the last 3 games against LDU, who only got worse as time went by, so they have a good platform to build on. GL!

Catolica DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 3-1, WON

U Catolica - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Huge drop of odds and change of lines here, and to be honest, I can't find a good enough reason to justify these changes. It is true that Emelec will be missing about 3 key players (striker Marlon de Jesus - 24/14 - is injured, while midfielders Gaibor - 18/3 - and Valencia - 15/2 - are unavailable, due to suspension or fatigue after the international day) but that shouldn't be enough to make the lines change so much. Emelec missed a few players in the last round as well, but they still managed to win the game, even though their opponent was weaker than today's one. The most important absence will be the one of strikers' Marlon de Jesus, but from what I've seen, he should be well covered by the new forward, Denis Stracqualursi, who scored 3 goals in his first 2 games for the club. Universidad Catolica has a good team, as they are flying high and are sitting on 3rd place, but we've seen their limitations in the last couple of rounds, as they were beaten by Independiente at home, and away at Deportivo Quito. And I expect Emelec to have the first chance here as well, despite their absences, as they seem to be at a totally different level when they play their game. Keep in mind, the lines/odds changed from -0.25 at 1.94 (opening odds) to +0.25 at much better odds, so from my point of view, we have a big value on this bet. GL!

Emelec (+0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 4/10
Result: 2-1, LOST

Deportivo Quito - Universidad Catolica

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Two of the top performers in the Ecuadorian league will face each other today, as league leaders Universidad Catolica will be looking to secure their top spot even further. They are in red hot form in this stage, as they've had 5 consecutive wins which ended abruptly last week, with a 2-3 home defeat against Independiente. They have the best offense so far, with 14 goals scored, and this proves how effective their offensive play is. Deportivo Quito are right behind them, 2 points adrift, and they are also in very good form, winning 4 of their 6 matches played, and being undefeated in their last 5 games. Their number of goals scored is not so impressive, with just 6 goals, but they also like to play offensive football. Also, within the ranks of Deportivo Quito and U Catolica we have the top 2 best scorers of the league, with Nieto having 22 goals scored so far, and with Laurito having 17 for Catolica. One more thing worth mentioning is that both of their mutual matches from this season have ended with 2-2 draws, so this is very encouraging for this bet. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

U Catolica - LDU Quito

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

The last round of the First Phase of the Ecuadorian Serie A will provide us a couple of very interesting match-ups. The first is to be found in Quito, where Universidad Catolica will face a resigned LDU Quito. The visitors tried hard to gun down the leaders, after a nice come-back (combined with a few wrong steps of Emelec), but right now everything is clear and they have to settle for a place on the podium. For today, they will be missing a few very important player: defender Araujo (17/0) and midfielders Saritama (15/1), Vera (14/0) and Madrid (12/1) are all recovering from injuries and are deemed unfit to play, while forwards Vitti (18/7) and Puppo (5/2) won't continue with the club, and won't participate today. That leaves LDU without 5 key players for this game, and without any objective left, so they shouldn't pose much of a threat. Catolica wants to end the year in the best possible way, the coach will use the same team that lost 0-1 with Emelec last week (after a very pleasant display) and I'm sure they will relish a win against their illustrious city rivals. LDU only won once as visitors, in 4 games, and I seriously doubt they will do it today.

Catolica (+0.25 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

U Catolica - Independiente JT

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

Two of the nice surprises of the season will be facing off today, as Independiente are visiting Universidad Catolica. Both teams enjoyed a poor start of the season (even though for Catolica is understandable, having played against LDU Quito and Emelec in the first two rounds), but both of them have recovered nicely, and now sit on the 3rd and 4th place in the table. And what I'm expecting from this match is nice game, where the goals should come. Both Independiente and Catolica have solid attacks, among the best in the league so far, and with some shaky defenses, I'm sure they'll be able to find enough spaces to create some chances. Both employ attacking football, and we can see this in their previous results: Catolica has 4 overs in 5 matches, while Independiente are at the same number. Also, their last 2 matches ended in high-scoring games (back in 2010). The men to follow are forwards Patta and Laurito (3 goals each) for Catolica, while Independiente has as a starting point the performances of midfielder Guerrero (3 goals) and of forward Martinez (2 goals). Line is set quite right, but it should be easily surpassed. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.02, 3/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

U Catolica - Emelec

Ecuador Serie A, Primera Etapa

The first round of the Ecuadorian Serie A has passed, and hopefully, now we have a pretty clear image of the teams. Newly-promoted U Catolica made a decent performance, despite losing to LDU 1-2. They might have gotten something more from that match, as LDU was fielding several reserve players, but it wasn't to be. Even so, they showed some nice football, with plenty of offensive moves, and they will just need to work on their finishing skills. Emelec made a perfect start of the season, beating Macara by 3-0, showing good football and offensive efficiency. And they got us used to that style of play, and as they are usually a team that tries to score one more than their opponents. The line-up shouldn't change for tonight, and they are of course slight favorites in this match, even though Catolica for sure won't roll over. If both teams keep the same style of play as in the first round, this bet should be a lock. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 0-4, WON

Universidad Catolica - Gremio

Copa Libertadores

Pretty tough round in Copa Libertadores, but this match looks like the best choice out of all the matches. Universidad Catolica made a very good game last week, and totally deserved their 2-1 win from Brazil. Gremio didn't look like much in this competition, and are here mainly because they had an easy group (Junior, Leon Huanuco and Oriente Petrolero), and because of their solid home plays, as they won all 3 matches at home. On the contrary, when it comes to playing away, we see a totally different team, as they failed to win a single match this year in Libertadores, including a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the play-off round, and a shocking 0-3 defeat in Bolivia. Now, with a loss at home, they really have a mountain to climb, and the news only get worse. They will miss at least 7 very important players for tonight's match, and those left and considered fit to play, have also played during the weekend. Take into account a more than 3000 km trip to Chile, and a change of climate, and things look very grim for the Brazilian side. Catolica surely won't miss the opportunity to qualify for the quarters of final, so I expect full focus from them. A Brazilian team is always dangerous, but I don't give much chances to a depleted Gremio, who are also poor travelers. GL!

Universidad Catolica (-0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Nublense - Universidad Catolica

Chile Primera Division

Nublense, already troubled with relegation - as they are on a relegation play-off position, 3 points behind the safe spot - will have even more worries tonight, as they are missing a host of first team players. They will have to cope without the presence of injured goalkeeper Viera, defender Ruiz and midfielder Oroz, while two other important players are suspended: captain and midfielder Reyes and defender Julio Barroso. Very important absences for a lowly team like Nublense, as they lack depth in quality, and without some of their most important men, they will have to work a lot in order to replace them. They are in very poor form, with only two victories in the last 10 games, and today they will have to face a wounded U. Catolica, which comes after a dramatic derby with Colo Colo. The title is far away from them, as Los Albos are 10 points clear, but the dreams are still there. Anyway, a second place and a ticket for Copa Libertadores 2011 should be a more realistic objective for Catolica. No important absences for them, as quality wise they are obviously much better than Nublense, who shouldn't put much of a fight with their numerous absences. GL!

Universidad Catolica (-0.75 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 1-4, WON