Penarol - Deportivo Anzoategui

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Since both of these teams are out of the competition already, this game is pretty much just to complete the schedule. I doubt there is anything real at stake, despite the pre-match talk about leaving the competition with honor. And Penarol are certainly showing that they couldn't care less, as not a single regular player is expected to start tonight's game. Forward Mauro Fernandez can be considered the highest profile player to take on the Venezuelans, but the rest of the team gives me no hope of a positive result. Deportivo Anzoategui aren't much of a team either, and it is still uncertain if they will be using their best available squad or a mixed one.  However, in this match without anything to play for, and against a team playing with a complete squad of reserves/youngsters, it's a bit of a stretch to give out such a big handicap. The Venezuelan team has a bad record away from home, that's true, but Penarol haven't exactly been shining either, and I don't see them winning big (maybe not winning at all). GL!

Anzoategui (+1.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Santos Laguna - Penarol

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Santos (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON

Nacional - Atletico Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

As you are probably well aware, last week I’ve had a very solid bet, full of confidence, against Nacional Montevideo. And unfortunately, that bet went to the crapper, after Atletico Nacional received a red card in the first minute of the game. So it would be pointless talking about that game, even though it is worth mentioning that despite having a man-down from the start, the Colombians were still able to recover from a 0-2 deficit and tie the game. Tonight, Nacional will still rest most of their regulars, as they only have 1 point in the group, and are focusing on the local league. Furthermore, from last week’s team, they will add 3 more youngsters, as 3 players are forbidden by the law to play in Uruguay. And on top of all this, their form couldn’t get much worse than this, as they’ve lost 4 of their last 6 games.

Atletico will use a similar squad to last week’s one, and there should definitely be a revenge factor here, as the 2-2 in Colombia against a team of youngsters certainly doesn’t sit well with them. They also need to keep in touch with the leaders, Gremio, and their main rivals for qualification, Newell’s Old Boys. All in all, I have pretty much the same confidence as last week, and this time we also have a nice line. GL!

Atletico DNB @ 1.84, 5/10 
Result: 0-1, WON

Atletico Nacional - Nacional Montevideo

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

I have quite a lot of confidence in this bet, despite the rather big handicap line. Nacional has traveled to Colombia with a complete B-squad, as none of their regular players was included in the trip. They are fighting for the title of Clausura, and they are also in a neck-in-neck battle for the Aggregate table, so their focus is shifting towards the local league. Furthermore, they also had to go through a 13 hour-trip from Montevideo to Medellin, so a lot of fatigue is expected for them. Atletico Nacional is bound to treat this match seriously, as they still have enough changes to qualify to the next stage (3rd place with 3 points, but will play against Gremio at home). They are also in red hot form, being 8-0-2 in the league and 4-1 at home. Plus, they've also beaten Newell's Old Boys in Medellin, so they definitely mean business. The odds are bound to drop even further, but as I said, I have a lot of confidence here, and this bet is good to take up until 1.90. GL!

Atletico (-1.5 AH) @ 2.13, 5/10
Result: 2-2, LOST

Cruzeiro - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

Tried over-bets for a couple of times in this seasons’ Libertadores, but I failed every time. However, this time I’m even more confident than before. Apparently, U de Chile came to Brazil to attack. They can’t really rely on their defense anyway, since it’s been rather shaky and allowed a lot of spaces and goals recently, with 8 goals conceded in the last 5 matches. And that was against some rather average opponents… they could really be put under pressure by Cruzeiro’s top class forwards, as long as they don’t get lazy. U de Chile will be using Gutierrez, Rubio and Lorenzetti in attack, and they can really hurt any defense, provided they get enough balls. And with them in the first team, it’s a pretty clear sign that they came here to play, not to sit and wait in defense. Cruzeiro should get enough chances themselves, so normally we should have quite a show in this match. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.90, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Universitario - Velez Sarsfield

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

over 2 goals @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Botafogo - Deportivo Quito

Copa Libertadores 2014, Play-off

Backed Botafogo in the first leg as well, and I'm definitely going to do it now too. As you probably know, Deportivo Quito was abandoned by many of their key players during the off season, due to their increasing financial problems, and the new players that joined the club are somewhat far from the previous standard, in my opinion. They did manage to win the first leg, it's true, but that was mainly due to their altitude advantage. I'm expecting a totally different game now, with Botafogo expected to take control early in the match. They have enough class within their ranks, with players like attacking midfielders Nicolas Lodeiro, Renato and Marcelo Mattos, defenders Bolivar and Andre Bahia, and forward Wallyson. Deportivo Quito also have a poor away record in continental competitions, practically only managing a win outside of Ecuador once every decade, and since the club's current state is rather low, I'm going for a solid Brazilian win here. GL!

Botafogo (-1.5 AH) @ 2.01, 5/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Deportivo Quito - Botafogo

Copa Libertadores 2014, Play-off

Botafogo (+0.25 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Oriente Petrolero - Nacional

Copa Libertadores 2014, Play-off

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Olimpia - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores 2013, Final

Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID

Corinthians - Boca Juniors

Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16

After losing two weeks ago on the same match, I will try once again with Corinthians. Even though they lost 0-1 in Argentina, and made a rather poor match, I would still consider them the favorites to qualify to the next round. They managed to put some pressure on their opponents after conceding the goal, and I assume that was a preview for what's to come tonight in the return game. I won't go into too many details, as I've said pretty much everything in the preview for the first leg. Corinthians are the reigning champions, one of the best teams in South America with some top class players (I'll mention again just Pato, Guerrero and Emerson), and they should be more than capable of overturning this result. Boca made a very good match two weeks ago, but I still rate them as just a shadow of their former selves (second from bottom in their local league, just 3 points above last placed Argentinos). They drew at home in the Super Clasico with River, than were trashed 0-3 by San Lorenzo, so no real sign of improvement. And if their local form is anything to go by, they have an appalling away record, without a single win in 7 games, scoring just 3 and conceding 14. And this is against mostly average Argentinian teams. They will be put under a lot of pressure in Brazil, and I'm expecting Corinthians to be constantly attacking them. So it's just a matter of 'when' they will concede the first goal. The line may look rather high, but this is the reality, and as I've said before, I still have Corinthians as favorites to qualify. GL!

Corinthians (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Atletico MG - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16

This bet looks so obvious that I'm actually afraid it may fail. However, this is a must-take in my opinion, as the line was set quite wrong (I was expecting to see a 2.75 with mid-1.80s, and with a line of 3 being the fair one). The first match that was played last week had two different stories. Sao Paulo took an early lead, was controlling the game, and had a few other chances to increase their advantage. But soon enough, a red card was shown to their defender Lucio, and the entire game was turned around. Atletico took control, equalized and then overturned the result, winning by 2 goals to 1. So right now, there is a simple strategy for Sao Paulo: attack, and score at least 2 goals. They welcome back striker Luis Fabiano, which will definitely provide a boost to their offense, and if we count him along the other stars of the team (Rogerio Ceni, Jadson, Ganso, Denilson), they have some good chances of scoring more than one. And I seriously doubt that Atletico will just sit back and defend the narrow lead. This is not their style, as they always prefer attacking football to defensive one. Within their ranks, they have Ronaldinho, Jo or Diego Tardelli, players that can put a lot of offensive pressure, and can create something out of nothing. This will be a game between two overish and offensive teams, and 3 goals are the minimum that I'm expecting. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.80, 5/10
Result: 4-1, WON

Boca Juniors - Corinthians

Copa Libertadores 2013, Round of 16

This comes a day early, but the odds have already started to drop, and I'm pretty sure that they will continue on the same downward trend up until kick-off time. A very tough task lies ahead of Boca Juniors, who are expected to snap out of their dreadful run, and win against one of the best teams on the continent. They are currently on a run of 5 consecutive games without a win, and are generally just showing some appalling performances. They struggled in a group with Nacional, Toluca and Barcelona, managing to lose half of their games, where normally they shouldn't have had any problems. In the local league, things aren't any better... they're actually worse, as after 11 rounds, they have won just one single game, have 9 points and are sitting on 18th place. Meanwhile, Corinthians are probably the best team in this competition, and the reigning champions. They have a very good and solid team, and also several high-profile players, that give them the edge against pretty much any opposition. Just as a reminder, they've won the Club World Cup in December 2012, after outplaying and beating Chelsea by 1-0. In their ranks, they have Alexandre Pato from Milan, Paolo Guerrero, Emerson, and several other skilled players that are, or have been, taken into consideration for the national team. Last year, these two teams played the final of Libertadores, with Corinthians drawing in Argentina, but things have changed since then. Boca is in deep trouble, and are showing little when it comes to football, while Corinthians are more solid than ever. It's never easy for a Brazilian team to play in Argentina, especially in La Bombonera, but I just can't see Timao losing this game. GL!

Corinthians DNB @ 1.96, 5/10
Result: 1-0, LOST

Cerro Porteno - Deportes Tolima

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Very similar pick to the one from last week, as once again we will go against Cerro Porteno. They have 0 points after the first 5 rounds, so they obviously have zero chances of advancing. Everybody is aware of that, so for the second straight week, they will be fielding a reserve team in Libertadores. Last week they have rested all of their regulars, and were trashed 1-5 by Real Garcilaso. Of course, the high altitude from Cuzco also played a big role, especially in the second half when Cerro's players colapsed, but the overall impression of the team was bad. And for this match, the coach will pretty much repeat the same team, using just reserve players and youngsters (only Nanni can be considered a former regular). Meanwhile, Tolima comes to Paraguay guns blazing, as they have the qualification on the line. They need to win, and they also need to hope that Santa Fe will beat Garcilaso as well, making it a Colombian 1-2. But before they can think of the other game, they will need to secure the 3 points here. They will have a couple of important players unavailable, so their job won't be easy without the likes of Leichtweis (9 app/4 goals in the local league + 4 more goals in Libertadores) and Roberto Merino (6/2). But they've proved they can play even without them, so I trust they will be able to deliver now as well. They are in a must-win situation, against an unexperienced team, so I expect them to prevail. GL!

Tolima (-0.25 AH) @ 2.00, 4/10
Result: 0-0, HALF-LOST

Santa Fe - Real Garcilaso

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Interesting match in Colombia tonight, as Santa Fe are looking to clinch the first place in the table against qualification hopefuls Real Garcilaso. The Colombians only have to avoid a defeat in order to win the group, therefore a draw would suit them well. On the other hand, Garcilaso also needs only a draw to assure their qualification, regardless of what Tolima does in their match against Cerro Porteno (it should be a Colombian win, as Cerro will be using a team full of youngsters and reserves). Despite their efforts and their incredible campaign in this competition, I still don't see Garcilaso as a team to be reckoned with. But if they are good at one thing, that would be defending and scoring on the counter at the perfect moment. They have lost just one game so far, 0-3 at home against Tolima, when they tried to control the game. But their best results came when playing as visitors, as they've beaten both Tolima and Cerro Porteno by 1-0,. in the closing minutes of the game, after some heroic defending. They will probably employ the same tactics today as well, because as I've mentioned earlier, a draw would be perfect for both teams, and even if they lose, I doubt they'll do so by more than one goal. GL!

Garcilaso (+0.75 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Early bet here, as the odds are bound to drop. As much as I hate Real Garcilaso this season, and as many bets that I've lost on their matches, I can not 'not' take a bet on them now.  They've made an incredible campaign this year, keeping in mind that this is their first time ever in Libertadores, and they currently have 7 points in the group, after 4 games, and have some nice chances of qualifying to the next round. For that, they will first of all need to defeat Cerro Porteno... normally, that won't be an easy task, but if we look at some facts, everything seems easier. Cerro Porteno have 0 points in this group, losing all 4 games, and ruining even the slightest chance they had to qualify. And it looks like they are just throwing the towel. Since their domestic campaign isn't that good either, a lot of the regulars will remain in Asuncion, along with coach Arce. So, in Peru, they will have a team composed of youngsters and reserves, lead by the assistant manager and the youth coach. Also, they'll have a long road ahead, with a stop in Bolivia before going to Lima, and in Cusco they will also have to face over 3000 meters of altitude. Hard for an inexperienced team to fight in those circumstances, especially with nothing at stake, so this should go down as an easy win for the home team. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 5/10
Result: 5-1, WON

The Strongest - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

In this group, Atletico MG has sealed their qualification, with 4 consecutive wins, leaving them with 12 points at the top of the group, 8 points more than their followers with two rounds remaining. But everything remains wide open when it comes to second place, as all 3 teams (Sao Paulo, Arsenal and The Strongest) are separated by just one points. So for sure, all teams will do their best to get as many points as possible. The Bolivians have the high altitude to their advantage, but that's pretty much it. They don't have star players, they don't have a strong team... but the altitude alone is enough to put serious problems to even the best teams. However, there is always a way around that, as we've seen in the last round, when they were defeated at home 1-2 by Atletico MG. And this time, their opponents will be Sao Paulo, who desperately needs the win. They have the players they need to achieve such a results (Luis Fabiano, Jadson, Ganso, etc), and they should also have the motivation. With The Strongest also having a good shot at qualification, I'm expecting a pretty nice match, with plenty of goals, as is usually the case at high altitude. And even if we look at Sao Paulo's record alone, the results seem encouraging: they lost 3-4 this year against Bolivar, while in their previous matches against The Strongest in Bolivia, they won 4-1 in 2003, and drew 3-3 in 2005. All of the The Strongest's matches so far have ended with 3 goals, so I think we're going for a sure thing here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

Santa Fe - Cerro Porteno

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Everything seems to be against Cerro Porteno in this match. They are passing through their worst footballing moment in recent years, as they are rock bottom in both the local league, as well as in Copa Libertadores, and with 0 points in their group, following 3 straight defeats, they have minimal chances to qualify (close to 0 actually). Playing as visitors won't help them either, as Bogota is situated at 2600 meters above sea level, and that is quite a lot for a team not used to playing at such high altitudes. And to top it all, Cerro also have some squad/internal problems. winger Bonet is injured, while two other players have been left out of the trip by the manager's decision: playmaker Fabbro (4/2) and striker Nanni (who, as much as I hate, is still an important piece in the squad). Meanwhile, Santa Fe is flying high, as they are undefeated in the last 10 games in all competitions, and they have the qualification at stake, as Tolima will have a tough match in Cusco against Garcilaso, so a win against Cerro Porteno, corroborated with a failure of Tolima, would assure their qualifciation for around 90%. They are strong enough to see of this challenge, and even though the odds are rather low, I'll take the bet as I don't see Santa Fe failing. GL!

Santa Fe (-1 AH) @ 1.73, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Arsenal Sarandi - Sao Paulo

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

This match can pretty much sway the qualification in favor of the Brazilians. If Sao Paulo wins, Arsenal will remain with 1 point in the table, 6 behind the Brazilians, so it will be game over for them (and Sao Paulo will qualify, because I don't see The Strongest making up 4 points in the last 2 games). So the only chance that the Argentinians have right now is to win today, equal them on points, and hope that Sao Paulo fails in Bolivia (they've already played there). So I don't really see them waiting for an opponent's mistake, and they should be going out looking for the goal. Sao Paulo isn't a team to sit back in defense, so I'm sure they'll go out trying to control the game as well. They have loads of quality in their squad (Rogerio Ceni, Denilson, Ganso, Jadson or Luis Fabiano), and those players are able to create danger out of nothing. And since Arsenal's defense isn't anything special, they should have their fair chances. Their last match ended with just 1-1, but more goals could have come easily. Let's hope that they'll improve on their finishing and provide a nice match. Line is good at 2.25, as we have a small insurance in case of another 1-1. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON

The Strongest - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores, Group Stage

The Strongest must be really unhappy with the draw, as they landed in the same group with two Brazilian teams and one Argentinian. Big difference in quality, but the lucky part for the Bolivians is that neither of those teams are used to play at altitude. So they should make the most of their home matches, and they did have a good start with a win against Arsenal. They didn't have too much luck in the following two games, both played in Brazil, but they were still able to put on some nice performances, losing both games by just 1-2. Now this should be a different story, as they are more offensive at home, and can take advantage of the probable physical problems that the Brazilians should have in the high altitude of La Paz. Atletico are so far one of the best teams in the competition, with 9 points from 9 possible, and with an awesome goal-scoring record of 9 goals in 3 games (with 4 against, conceding in every game). They also like to play on the offense, and have tons of skills in their squad (Ronaldinho, Jo, Diego Tardelli, etc). They can be deadly on counter-attacks, and even more from set pieces, and they should have plenty of spaces, as The Strongest's only chance to get something from this group is to go out in attack. Both teams had only overs so far in this group, and usually, games played in the altitude of La Paz end with plenty of goals. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.93, 5/10
Result: 1-2, WON