Universitario - Velez Sarsfield

Copa Libertadores 2014, Group Stage

over 2 goals @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Final

Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID

Universitario - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Final

Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!

Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Universitario - Juan Aurich

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Universitario showed a new face this season, and they once again look like the giants that can compete for honors, as they top the Liguilla B with an 8-points advantage over second-placed Inti Gas, an advantage that could be increased to 11 points with a win in this match (or 10 points, if Cajamarca also wins it's game, and takes second place). And this looks like something that can be achieved with ease, as Juan Aurich is going through one of their worst seasons in recent years. They won last weekend against San Martin, to end a run of 5 consecutive matches without a win, but even so, they barely managed to win two games in the last 10 played (the aforementioned game with San Martin and a 6-1 trashing of poor travelers Cienciano). They are safe from relegation for the moment, but only because no one can compete with Union Comercio and Jose Galvez in terms of how poor they are. Universitario will once again depend on the performances of striker Raul Ruidiaz (7 goals in the last 5 games) and midfielder Rainer Torres, who has also been in hot form when it comes to assists. They also carry a morale advantage of Aurich, as they've beaten them in the last 3 consecutive matches, and they look set to continue this run of form. The odds went high a lot, and for no good reason, and I see a lot of value here, as we have odds of over 2.10 in most places, when the opening line was at -1 for a much lower price. GL!

Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

The Liguillas are set and scheduled to start, and Universitario already announced themselves as main contenders for the Liguilla B and for the final. Their group is relatively easy, without the rest of the main contenders (Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza), and they also have a 6-points advantage over second placed Cajamarca, so normally they shouldn't sweat for the final and should just power through the rest of their matches. First stop would be with Cienciano, a team generally known for their home-ground prowess, as their performances on the road leave much to be desired. They lost more than half of their away games (8 out of 15), and have a negative goal-scoring record of 13-29. Their last matches also leave a lot to be desired, as they drew with Pacifico and lost at Leon, Juan Aurich and San Martin, the only white point being the draw they snatched at Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Universtario are really on fire, as they have 4 straight victories, including a 5-1 trashing of Jose Galvez and a 3-0 beat-down with title hopefuls Cristal. They will be missing their top scorer today, Raul Ruidiaz (13 goals in 28 games), but he should be well covered by Diego Gustavino, who scored 7 goals in 18 matches that he started as a regular (plus 8 more as a substitute). Cienciano shouldn't pose too many problems, they are quite safe from relegation, so I expect Universitario to keep up their good run of form. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Cajamarca - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!

Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Universitario is aiming to reclaim the top spot in the league, although if that happens tonight it won't have a big effect, as Real Garcilaso (the current leaders) will have 3 games in hand. But it should be good for the morale, especially since Universitario have really upped their game this season. They have a solid home record of 6-1-2, and are undefeated in their last 6 matches. No important absences for this game, and with Ruidiaz finally getting back into form, they could pose a serious title challenge for Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza Lima. Cienciano are also in great form, being undefeated in their last 7 games, but 5 of them have been played at home, and we know how strong they can get in the heights of Cuzco. But we do have to mention their incredible 1-0 victory away at Alianza Lima, at the end of April. I'll pin that down to a once-in-a-hundred game, because if we look at the big picture, they're away form is quite bad, losing points even against other teams that are playing at altitude. Universitario look very serious this year, and I simply can't see them failing at home against Cienciano. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Universitario - Pacifico

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Universitario have a debt to pay in front of their own supporters, as last week's 0-4 trashing at Sporting Cristal has left everybody at the club in a very bad state. The fans even protested against the players after such a dismal performance, so right now, it's time to make amends. And this trashing came as quite a surprise, as Universitario was looking set to fight for the top places, following a run of 3 wins in 4 games. Even so, nothing is lost yet, as with a win tonight they could well climb to second place, one point behind surprising league leaders Sport Huancayo. So the motivation is definitely there, for all the good reasons, and since they are playing at home, they should take control of the game and press forward. And in front of them, they will have an opponent that on paper looks quite accessible. Pacifico are a newly promoted team, that is showing some average performances. They are on 12th place in the standings, probably better than they would have hoped, but their recent performances were not convincing, as they have won just 2 games in their last 10. And away from home, they are still without a win. Of course, we could mention the draw that they've snatched at Cristal, and the fact that most of their defeats came in matches played at high altitude (Inti Gas, Melgar, Garcilaso), but besides defending in numbers, they don't have many weapons. Universitario should be fired up, and if they play with their hearts and with patience, they should be able to break down the wall. The odds went up a lot, so now we have some good value on the hosts. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Universitario - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Tough start for both teams this season, and it's strange to see them so low in the table (although we should have gotten used to that from last season). Both teams have lost 2 games so far, out of 6 played, but they also appear to be having difficulties in winning. Leon only managed to win 2-0 against newly promoted Cajamarca, while drawing at home against Melgar and at the other newly promoted team, Pacifico. They have also shown a huge inability to score goals, with just 3 goals in 6 games (although, to their credit, the defense is working quite all right, having conceded just 4). Universitario aren't doing much better either, but they have at least managed to win 2 games, against Juan Aurich and Cesar Vallejo (both being better ranked than Leon). We can see the same offensive inefficiency for Universitario, as they score 5 goals so far, but they are hopeful that it will end now, with the debut of fast-paced striker Raul Ruidiaz (he returns to his first club, after an awesome 2011 season, and after a good spell with U de Chile). He is expected to start today, along side Miguel Ximenez in attack (Ximenez has an awesome record in Peru, having scored 47 goals in 95 matches for Sporting Cristal, and 20 goals in 37 games for Universitario - since 2012). With this move, I think that Universitario will definitely improve, as they will have a fearsome offense, and they should have a bit more in themselves than Leon. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Odds moving all the time, because the news are pretty contradictory. First, it was rumored that Universitario will once again use their youth squad for this match, showing solidarity with San Martin's case, and that is probably the reason why the odds went up. But, more recent news are giving a better light in regards to U, as there has been an agreement between the players and the club, so we will see the professional players tonight on the pitch. The ones that won't be able to play are the new signings, as Universitario's proposed payment plan hasn't been approved yet, so the new players don't have the right to play. Even so, they still should have a good enough team to be able to win this match, especially since Cienciano didn't make a great transfer campaign, seem a bit weak, and are also usually poor travelers. Of course, what they are really capable of doing is still an unknown, but the odds are quite ok for a home win, especially if we keep in mind that Universitario won the last 4 clashes against Cienciano that were played in Lima. GL!

Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Union Comercio - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Last round in Peru, and there are still some teams that are fighting for something. Union Comercio is one of them, as they are still hoping to reach the last place that qualifies to the Copa Sudamericana for 2012. That is why they will be sending the best they have tonight, in order to secure the 3 points, and hope that Inti Gas wonțt win their game (as Inti Gas has one point more than them). Therefore, expect a full team, with high motivation. On the other side of the pitch, we will have a very troubled Universitario, that suffered a lot this season, although they have managed to avoid relegation in extremis last week, after their 2-2 draw with Cesar Vallejo. And since they no longer have an objective to play for, the coach has decided to give his key players an early holiday, and will take on this match with a mixed team of reserves and youth players. From U's main players, Vitti, Ruidiaz, Morel, Llontop and others didn't even make the trip. Their away form also gives them little hope (not a single win, and only 1 goal scored), so I think the points will go to the team that actually needs them. GL!

Comercio (-0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 3-2, HALF-WON

Universitario - Cesar Vallejo

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

With only 2 rounds remaining in the Peruvian league, everything is pretty much up for grabs. And who would have though that Universitario would have to play a relegation derby against Cesar Vallejo? Las Cremas lost 5 points off the pitch, which saw them fall down the table, only 3 points above the relegation zone, having to fight for their lives in the last rounds, but those problems now seem to have passed. The players signed the papers, despite not getting paid yet, and have sworn to do all they can to save the club from relegation. Universitario will field their best players, everyone is ready to go, and they will also count on the public's support to get out of this situation, as all the tickets available for this match have been sold-out. A win here would seal their presence in next year's league. Cesar Vallejo are on a relegation place, but unlike Universitario, they are there on their own merit, losing all the points on the field. They are in very poor form, especially away from home, where they have only won 2 games, in addition to a draw, and have lost the last 8 games played as visitors. Universitario has been solid at home so far, have a better squad, and there will be no questioning of their motivation, so I just can't see them failing to win tonight. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Vasco da Gama - Universitario

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

Lost a bit of value for this bet, but I decided it's better to wait until the mast minute for the latest news. And apparently that was a good thing, as today I just found out that Vasco's coach has decided to use his best players, unlike a few days ago, when there were speculations that he'll use a reserve team again. But no, he wants both the Brasileiro and the Sudamericana, and it's expected that we'll see the same team that played against Santos in the weekend. Juninho, Diego Souza and other top players are therefore expected to start, and I'm counting on Vasco to start pressing early on, as they have a 2-goal deficit to overturn, and the extra-time surely doesn't feature in their plans, due to their packed schedule. Universitario will also use their best squad, after resting a few key players during the weekend, and although they'll probably sit back and try to defend, they can create some real havoc on the counters. Fano and Ruidiaz are very fast strikers, and they had a bit of fun with the Brazilian defense in the first leg. Surely it won't be that easy tonight, but they have good chances to score (in the previous round, Vasco won 8-3 with Aurora, with the Bolivians scoring 2 goals while being a man down), and we should be seeing at least 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 5-2, WON

Universitario - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

All the talk about Universitario's financial crisis, administrative problems, their participation in Copa Sudamericana, and the fact that they will use a mixed squad for his match, gave us very sweet odds on them. But, let's take them one at a time. The financial crisis is real, but this week they received some money, and managed to pay a part of the debts towards the players. Not much, but enough to convince them to sign the Syndicate's papers, so now they play the points on the field (unlike their previous 2 matches, where they lost the points even before playing the match). Their Copa Sudamericana campaign could be a problem here, as indeed they will rest some key players, but it is not yet certain how many. But since they are really starting to be threatened by relegation (only 4 points in front of the 'red zone'), and encouraged by the fact that the players also agreed to sign those papers so they can avoid relegation, I'm expecting a pretty decent line-up, that won't be a sure victim. Especially since Inti Gas have lost 8 of their 13 away games, and have the worst defense as visitors, receiving 34 goals. The referee could also have an impact here, as I doubt it will be in anyone's interest to see Universitario relegating. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 2.14, 3/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Universitario - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

With only 6 rounds remaining in the Brasileiro championship, Vasco is still hanging on to their top spot. But after their last 0-0 draw, Corinthians tied them on points, with Botafogo also lurking close by, so obviously, the focus for everyone at the team goes to the local league. That is why they have decided to send only 3 of their regulars to play in tonight's match: goalkeeper Prass, defender Conserva and midfielder Diego Souza. All the others are left in Brazil, including star player Juninho Pernambucano, so the rest of the places on the pitch will be taken by reserves and maybe even a few youngsters. Universitario has ended it's national campaign, as it doesn't look likely they will score other points in the remaining rounds, due to some debts they have with the Players' Syndicate. All the players are well rested, as the weekend match from Cuzco was played by the reserves/youngsters, so they should be well prepared for the Brazilians. Universitario put in some good performances to knock-out Godoy Cruz in the previous round, and they should again have the edge here, against a second-string Brazilian team, that is also probably thinking more about their weekend clash with Santos. GL!

Universitario DNB @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Alianza Atletico - Universitario

Peru Primera Division

Odds dropped quite a bit, so there isn't the value that was at the hour of the odds opening, but I like this bet even at this price. Universitario also has to play in Copa Sudamericana three days later, so it really comes as a surprise that they were scheduled to play their league game on Monday. And since they decided to focus their efforts on the Copa, they will rest several key players for this match, including: defender Galliquio, midfielder Rainer Torres, or playmaker Vitti. Therefore, we'll have an even weaker Universitario team, than what we are used to normally, and even so, their away record is nothing to be proud about for a team of their caliber: without a win playing as visitors this season, and with just 1 goal scored. And I'm sure that with a mixed team, and playing on an artificial pitch, they won't have it easy now. Alianza should be giving their all tonight, as it is one of their last chances to remain in the top division next season. Currently on the last place, 3 points against Las Cremas would be like an oxygen mask for them, as they would tie Cesar Vallejo on points, and keep their hopes alive for the last 6 rounds of the season. GL!

Alianza Atletico DNB @ 1.70, 3/10

Result: 0-0, VOID

Universitario - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division

Another episode of El Superclasico of Peru, as Universitario and Alianza are trying to win the only match that really matters for their fans. The pressure is surely on La 'U', as they need to win this match for several reasons: first of all, simply because it's the biggest derby, but also because they need the points to keep hoping of a Libertadores position at the end of the season (they are currently 4 points behind the 3rd placed Leon). Alianza can take it a bit more relaxed, as they are the leaders, and have a very nice advantage in front of the tables, and for them to miss the league final would be close to impossible. But everyone will put their problems aside, and we'll probably have a very disputed match, as we always have. In the last 10 Superclasicos, only 3 of them had at least 3 goals, showing that both these teams would prefer not to lose this match, rather than win it (4 of the last 10 ended in draws). So I expect another close affair, likely with very few goals, especially since Alianza made 6 unders in their last 10 matches, while Universitario has 8 under in the last 10. Moreover, Universitario is also missing 2 of their forwards, Johan Fano and Pedro Garcia, so I seriously doubt this will be a goal-fest. My call would be on a 0-0. GL!

under 2 goals @ 1.87, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Universitario - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Important day for Universitario, but unfortunately the celebrations are stained by internal problems. Today, the Peruvian giants will be celebrating 87 years of their proud history, so a win at home would be the best possible way to celebrate, and to make the fans happy. And players have already said they will be giving their all to win on this day, and are trying to put behind them the financial insecurity (they are more or less up to date with the wages, but there is still some insecurity for the near future). And they also need to pick themselves up from last round's defeat at Aurich (heavy match, so the players shouldn't take it too hard). Forward Johan Fano is suspended, and will be replaced by Ruidiaz, which is a good thing in my opinion, as Ruidiaz is faster than Fano, and more agile, with very good dribbling skills. Vitti is also playing, and his skills are likely to make the difference in this match. CNI managed a win last round, against Cesar Vallejo (unstable team), but now should be a totally different story, especially since CNI are renowned poor traveler, having won just one match away from home this season. Quality advantage goes for the Cremas, and if mentally they will be ready, this should go as an easy crowd-pleasing victory. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Universitario - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division

Whoever made these odds must have been on crack. Yes, Universitario is playing like crap lately, but surprisingly, it's working. They have lost just one game so far, and with 3 points tonight, they will tie Cienciano on points at the top of the table, at least until tomorrow. They have been greedy with the goals and the entertainment, as they have scored only 7 goals in 10 matches, and only Cobresol have a worse attack than that, but even so, Universitario is gathering points. Only the away games seem to be a problem, as they haven't won a single match out of Monumental, while at home they are 4-1-0. Few goals, but great efficency, and their only draw came with Juan Aurich. Cienciano are the surprising leaders of the Descentralizado, but I'm sure that won't last, as a typical home team can't have many hopes. They have been helped by a good start, but slowly, they have been losing steam: narrow wins at home with Cesar Vallejo and Inti Gas, a 2-2 draw with Union Comercio, and 1 defeat (Cristal) + 1 draw (Cobresol) on the road. Universitario is also in a small crisis, and in the past weeks they haven't always trained normally, due to some debts towards the players. But, that didn't stop them from playing normally so far, and there are reports that everything has been solved yesterday. Last time Cienciano took a point in Lima was in 2008, and their last win goes all the way back to 2003, so anything else than another home win tonight is highly unlikely. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 5-0, WON

CNI - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Both teams started the new season poorly, with CNI being trashed 3-0 at Cesar Vallejo (without putting up much of a fight - actually, they even managed to concede when they were 1 man up), while Universitario failed to break Juan Aurich's bunker, finishing the match 0-0 as hosts. That scoreless draw came mainly because of some technical stupidity made by coach del Solar, as he put Vitti (best player of the league in 2010) in a midfield position, despite him being used to play, and giving his best performances, as an attacking midfielder, behind the strikers. That's where he'll play today, so expect a big boost to the Cremas offense. He looked good on that position in this week's training session, as well as his offensive team-mates: Alvarez, Alva and Ruidiaz. Therefore, we'll see a pretty offensive Universitario line-up, against what should be a defensive CNI, who will want to avoid another trashing. Las Cremas don't usually find it easy in Iquitos, winning just 1 out of 3 matches played there, but they have a lot of potential, while CNI seems to be much weaker than last season. GL!

Universitario @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST