Peru Primera Division, Final
Universitario DNB @ 2.15, 3/10
Result: 0-0, VOID
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Showing posts with label Peru. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peru. Show all posts
Dec 18, 2013
Dec 15, 2013
Universitario - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Final
Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Last game of the season in Peru, and the most important one, as it will decide who will take home the champion's crown. Real Garcilaso won the first match 3-2, that's why everybody expects Universitario to be fired up, and as a result the odds dropped quite a bit. But even so, it should be worth to take this bet, as Universitario are sure-fire favorites here for me. They did lose the first match, it's true, but they didn't play bad at all, and almost neutralized Garcilaso's huge altitude advantage (the match was played on a neutral ground, because there was a higher altitude there than in Cuzco). Looking at the expected line-up, Universitario looks to be playing quite offensively, with Ruidiaz up-front, who will be supported by Torres, Gonzalez and Fernandez. Garcilaso has been disappointing away from home in the last few months, winning just at Huancayo (at altitude) and losing 4 games. Slim chances for them, so I'm definitely backing the hosts here. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Nov 10, 2013
Cienciano - Juan Aurich
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!
Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Another match where I don't really agree with the odds. Cienciano has the altitude advantage, but that's it. Quality and form are definitely on Aurich's side, who - before last round - had a run of 8 consecutive games without a loss. And it could have went on for a while longer, but they had to face leaders and finalists Universitario, so they can't be criticized too much. Meanwhile, Cienciano is dropping points all over the place, including at home, and away at teams as poor as Jose Galvez. So it's rather strange for me to set Cienciano up as favorites solely due to the altitude, because the first question that comes into mind is: since when haven't they beaten Aurich? And the answer is: from 2011. That means that in the last 6 mutual matches, Aurich won 5 and drew the other one. And one win and the draw were taken in Cusco, under similar conditions. And right now Aurich is gunning for Copa Sudamericana (4 points behind the last qualifying spot), so for sure they'll focus and play their best game. GL!
Juan Aurich (+0.25 AH) @ 2.16, 3/10
Result: 2-1, LOST
Sporting Cristal - Real Garcilaso
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!
Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON
In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!
Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON
Nov 4, 2013
Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Nov 2, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Union Comercio
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!
Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Sep 22, 2013
Inti Gas - Jose Galvez
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!
Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!
Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST
Sep 19, 2013
Universitario - Juan Aurich
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
Universitario showed a new face this season, and they once again look like the giants that can compete for honors, as they top the Liguilla B with an 8-points advantage over second-placed Inti Gas, an advantage that could be increased to 11 points with a win in this match (or 10 points, if Cajamarca also wins it's game, and takes second place). And this looks like something that can be achieved with ease, as Juan Aurich is going through one of their worst seasons in recent years. They won last weekend against San Martin, to end a run of 5 consecutive matches without a win, but even so, they barely managed to win two games in the last 10 played (the aforementioned game with San Martin and a 6-1 trashing of poor travelers Cienciano). They are safe from relegation for the moment, but only because no one can compete with Union Comercio and Jose Galvez in terms of how poor they are. Universitario will once again depend on the performances of striker Raul Ruidiaz (7 goals in the last 5 games) and midfielder Rainer Torres, who has also been in hot form when it comes to assists. They also carry a morale advantage of Aurich, as they've beaten them in the last 3 consecutive matches, and they look set to continue this run of form. The odds went high a lot, and for no good reason, and I see a lot of value here, as we have odds of over 2.10 in most places, when the opening line was at -1 for a much lower price. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Universitario showed a new face this season, and they once again look like the giants that can compete for honors, as they top the Liguilla B with an 8-points advantage over second-placed Inti Gas, an advantage that could be increased to 11 points with a win in this match (or 10 points, if Cajamarca also wins it's game, and takes second place). And this looks like something that can be achieved with ease, as Juan Aurich is going through one of their worst seasons in recent years. They won last weekend against San Martin, to end a run of 5 consecutive matches without a win, but even so, they barely managed to win two games in the last 10 played (the aforementioned game with San Martin and a 6-1 trashing of poor travelers Cienciano). They are safe from relegation for the moment, but only because no one can compete with Union Comercio and Jose Galvez in terms of how poor they are. Universitario will once again depend on the performances of striker Raul Ruidiaz (7 goals in the last 5 games) and midfielder Rainer Torres, who has also been in hot form when it comes to assists. They also carry a morale advantage of Aurich, as they've beaten them in the last 3 consecutive matches, and they look set to continue this run of form. The odds went high a lot, and for no good reason, and I see a lot of value here, as we have odds of over 2.10 in most places, when the opening line was at -1 for a much lower price. GL!
Universitario (-0.75 AH) @ 2.13, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Sep 2, 2013
Real Garcilaso - Alianza Lima
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A
There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!
Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!
Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
Sep 1, 2013
Universitario - Cienciano
Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B
The Liguillas are set and scheduled to start, and Universitario already announced themselves as main contenders for the Liguilla B and for the final. Their group is relatively easy, without the rest of the main contenders (Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza), and they also have a 6-points advantage over second placed Cajamarca, so normally they shouldn't sweat for the final and should just power through the rest of their matches. First stop would be with Cienciano, a team generally known for their home-ground prowess, as their performances on the road leave much to be desired. They lost more than half of their away games (8 out of 15), and have a negative goal-scoring record of 13-29. Their last matches also leave a lot to be desired, as they drew with Pacifico and lost at Leon, Juan Aurich and San Martin, the only white point being the draw they snatched at Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Universtario are really on fire, as they have 4 straight victories, including a 5-1 trashing of Jose Galvez and a 3-0 beat-down with title hopefuls Cristal. They will be missing their top scorer today, Raul Ruidiaz (13 goals in 28 games), but he should be well covered by Diego Gustavino, who scored 7 goals in 18 matches that he started as a regular (plus 8 more as a substitute). Cienciano shouldn't pose too many problems, they are quite safe from relegation, so I expect Universitario to keep up their good run of form. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
The Liguillas are set and scheduled to start, and Universitario already announced themselves as main contenders for the Liguilla B and for the final. Their group is relatively easy, without the rest of the main contenders (Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza), and they also have a 6-points advantage over second placed Cajamarca, so normally they shouldn't sweat for the final and should just power through the rest of their matches. First stop would be with Cienciano, a team generally known for their home-ground prowess, as their performances on the road leave much to be desired. They lost more than half of their away games (8 out of 15), and have a negative goal-scoring record of 13-29. Their last matches also leave a lot to be desired, as they drew with Pacifico and lost at Leon, Juan Aurich and San Martin, the only white point being the draw they snatched at Garcilaso. Meanwhile, Universtario are really on fire, as they have 4 straight victories, including a 5-1 trashing of Jose Galvez and a 3-0 beat-down with title hopefuls Cristal. They will be missing their top scorer today, Raul Ruidiaz (13 goals in 28 games), but he should be well covered by Diego Gustavino, who scored 7 goals in 18 matches that he started as a regular (plus 8 more as a substitute). Cienciano shouldn't pose too many problems, they are quite safe from relegation, so I expect Universitario to keep up their good run of form. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Aug 14, 2013
South Korea - Peru
International Friendly Match
Early bet here, because the odds already dropped quite a lot, and will probably keep doing so. This is only a friendly game, but from the looks of it, the Peruvian team, headed by coach Markarian, will take it quite seriously. We can tell this from the list of 'foreign' players that have been called-up, as we can see some big names, like Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan, Claudio Pizarro, Paolo Hurtado, Edson Flores and Yordy Reina. It's far too soon to speculate about the starting line-up, but I doubt that the coach has called so many stars to South Korea only to leave them on the bench. Meanwhile, the hosts have only called-up Asian-based players (acting in the South Korean or Japan leagues), and except goalkeeper Jung Sung-Ryong (53 caps) and midfielder Lee Keun-Ho (51 caps), the squad is very inexperienced, and are averaging on the age level at 24 years old. They will be without any of their European stars, and the coach is under a lot of criticism, mainly due to their poor performance in their previous local tournament. The quality should be on the Peruvian side, so it's definitely worth taking this bet, despite this being just a meaningless friendly match. GL!
Peru (+0.5 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Early bet here, because the odds already dropped quite a lot, and will probably keep doing so. This is only a friendly game, but from the looks of it, the Peruvian team, headed by coach Markarian, will take it quite seriously. We can tell this from the list of 'foreign' players that have been called-up, as we can see some big names, like Paolo Guerrero, Jefferson Farfan, Claudio Pizarro, Paolo Hurtado, Edson Flores and Yordy Reina. It's far too soon to speculate about the starting line-up, but I doubt that the coach has called so many stars to South Korea only to leave them on the bench. Meanwhile, the hosts have only called-up Asian-based players (acting in the South Korean or Japan leagues), and except goalkeeper Jung Sung-Ryong (53 caps) and midfielder Lee Keun-Ho (51 caps), the squad is very inexperienced, and are averaging on the age level at 24 years old. They will be without any of their European stars, and the coach is under a lot of criticism, mainly due to their poor performance in their previous local tournament. The quality should be on the Peruvian side, so it's definitely worth taking this bet, despite this being just a meaningless friendly match. GL!
Peru (+0.5 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Aug 3, 2013
Sport Huancayo - UTC
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Sport Huancayo have a very short squad, so for as long as they'll be playing both in the local league and in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to sacrifice some games. And from what it looks like, the sacrificed ones will be in the local league. Following their home defeat against Emelec, earlier this week in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to dig deep in the return game to overturn the results. And even if that task will be almost impossible, they are giving it their all, and are saving pretty much all their main players during today's game. No official line-up has been released so far, but it is quite certain that they will be using 8 youngsters in the starting team. So, a completely different team, without too much experience or class. Overall, UTC look like a weaker team than a full-force Huancayo, even though they are right behind them in the table, just one point behind, but under these circumstance, they should be winning this match without any problems. They are also used to play at high altitude, so Huancayo will be without any advantages. GL!
UTC (+0.5 AH) @ 1.68, 4/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Sport Huancayo have a very short squad, so for as long as they'll be playing both in the local league and in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to sacrifice some games. And from what it looks like, the sacrificed ones will be in the local league. Following their home defeat against Emelec, earlier this week in Copa Sudamericana, they will have to dig deep in the return game to overturn the results. And even if that task will be almost impossible, they are giving it their all, and are saving pretty much all their main players during today's game. No official line-up has been released so far, but it is quite certain that they will be using 8 youngsters in the starting team. So, a completely different team, without too much experience or class. Overall, UTC look like a weaker team than a full-force Huancayo, even though they are right behind them in the table, just one point behind, but under these circumstance, they should be winning this match without any problems. They are also used to play at high altitude, so Huancayo will be without any advantages. GL!
UTC (+0.5 AH) @ 1.68, 4/10
Result: 0-2, WON
Jul 11, 2013
Cajamarca - Universitario
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Everything looks pretty much set for a home win here. Their performances this season haven't been for the best, as they find themselves only on the 11th place, but they did manage a couple of good results lately, beating leaders Real Garcilaso and drawing away at Cristal in the last two rounds. And they should have some good weapons for today: first of all, they play at high altitude, a place where Universitario doesn't feel very comfortable (out of their 5 matches played at altitude, Universitario lost 2, drew 2 and won only one). Another plus for Cajamarca will be their artifical turf, on which most teams hate to play. But perhaps their most important, advantage lies in Universitario's camp. Besides a poor recent showing (just 1 point in the last 3 games), the hosts also have a long list of absences. They will be without 7 players: defenders Nestor Duarte (22/1), Alexi Gomez (18/1) and Galliquio (8/1), midfielders Antonio Gonzalez (18/0), Carlos Olascuaga (17/3) and Angel Romero (8/0), along with forward Ximenez (9/3) will definitely miss the game. That means that Universitario will have to do without at least 4 key players, and without some good back-up on some positions. Cajamarca also won the match played in Lima, so they should have the moral upper-hand, and I really can't see them losing here tonight. GL!
Cajamarca (-0.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Jul 6, 2013
Sport Huancayo - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!
Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!
Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON
Jun 15, 2013
Universitario - Cienciano
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Universitario is aiming to reclaim the top spot in the league, although if that happens tonight it won't have a big effect, as Real Garcilaso (the current leaders) will have 3 games in hand. But it should be good for the morale, especially since Universitario have really upped their game this season. They have a solid home record of 6-1-2, and are undefeated in their last 6 matches. No important absences for this game, and with Ruidiaz finally getting back into form, they could pose a serious title challenge for Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza Lima. Cienciano are also in great form, being undefeated in their last 7 games, but 5 of them have been played at home, and we know how strong they can get in the heights of Cuzco. But we do have to mention their incredible 1-0 victory away at Alianza Lima, at the end of April. I'll pin that down to a once-in-a-hundred game, because if we look at the big picture, they're away form is quite bad, losing points even against other teams that are playing at altitude. Universitario look very serious this year, and I simply can't see them failing at home against Cienciano. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Universitario is aiming to reclaim the top spot in the league, although if that happens tonight it won't have a big effect, as Real Garcilaso (the current leaders) will have 3 games in hand. But it should be good for the morale, especially since Universitario have really upped their game this season. They have a solid home record of 6-1-2, and are undefeated in their last 6 matches. No important absences for this game, and with Ruidiaz finally getting back into form, they could pose a serious title challenge for Garcilaso, Cristal and Alianza Lima. Cienciano are also in great form, being undefeated in their last 7 games, but 5 of them have been played at home, and we know how strong they can get in the heights of Cuzco. But we do have to mention their incredible 1-0 victory away at Alianza Lima, at the end of April. I'll pin that down to a once-in-a-hundred game, because if we look at the big picture, they're away form is quite bad, losing points even against other teams that are playing at altitude. Universitario look very serious this year, and I simply can't see them failing at home against Cienciano. GL!
Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
FBC Melgar - Leon de Huanuco
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Home-monsters FBC Melgar will be facing an irregular Leon de Huanuco tonight. There's not a big difference between the two teams in the standings, with Melgar sitting on 9th place, just 2 points ahead of their opponents, but the thing that makes Melgar favorite for this game is their fantastic home form. They have won 6 out of 9 home games so far... their last 6, actually, and that is really an incredible feat at first sight. But if we look closer at the teams they've played against, we can see that not a single one of them is used to playing at high altitude. Previous to those 6 straight wins, they've played against Alianza Lima, Cienciano and Inti Gas (the last two coming from cities at altitude), and they've lost all of them. And Leon is a team that relishes these kinds of matches. They have a good record in their away games, have a solid team that's hard to break and can really put up a fight. Even though they're recent form hasn't been the best, I have faith that they won't go down so easily, and I'll back them with a small bet here. GL!
Leon (+0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Home-monsters FBC Melgar will be facing an irregular Leon de Huanuco tonight. There's not a big difference between the two teams in the standings, with Melgar sitting on 9th place, just 2 points ahead of their opponents, but the thing that makes Melgar favorite for this game is their fantastic home form. They have won 6 out of 9 home games so far... their last 6, actually, and that is really an incredible feat at first sight. But if we look closer at the teams they've played against, we can see that not a single one of them is used to playing at high altitude. Previous to those 6 straight wins, they've played against Alianza Lima, Cienciano and Inti Gas (the last two coming from cities at altitude), and they've lost all of them. And Leon is a team that relishes these kinds of matches. They have a good record in their away games, have a solid team that's hard to break and can really put up a fight. Even though they're recent form hasn't been the best, I have faith that they won't go down so easily, and I'll back them with a small bet here. GL!
Leon (+0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Jun 8, 2013
Peru - Ecuador
World Cup 2014 Qualifiers, CONMEBOL
This will pretty much be a decisive match for Peru, as they are playing their last chance of qualifying to the World Cup. With a win here, they will amount a total of 14 points, that could leave them just 1 point behind the play-off spot (provided either Chile or Venezuela don't win today). Besides, Peru has one game in hand, so they can get knee-deep in the qualification fight. Peru are a very organized team under coach Markarian, and can be quite a tough nut to crack, as they've only lost once in their last 10 games, 0-1 at Paraguay. 3-1-1 is their record in Lima in these qualifiers, a run which includes a win against Chile and a draw with Argentina. Once again, the focus of attention will be on the 'Fantastic 4', as Farfan, Pizzaro, Guerrero and Vargas are expected to start and to command Peru's offensive. Ecuador is sitting quite comfortably on 2nd place, 5 points ahead of the last qualifying place, and also with a game in hand. So it's really quite hard to see them failing to qualify after such an incredible campaign. However, almost all of their points came at home, as they have a 0-2-2 record away from home. Tonight they will also have to cope with the absence of in-form striker Felipe Caicedo, which could prove a big blow to them. All in all, Peru is the team that has a lot at stake here, they have some classy players in offense, and they could take advantage of Ecuador's struggle's outside their country. GL!
Peru (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
This will pretty much be a decisive match for Peru, as they are playing their last chance of qualifying to the World Cup. With a win here, they will amount a total of 14 points, that could leave them just 1 point behind the play-off spot (provided either Chile or Venezuela don't win today). Besides, Peru has one game in hand, so they can get knee-deep in the qualification fight. Peru are a very organized team under coach Markarian, and can be quite a tough nut to crack, as they've only lost once in their last 10 games, 0-1 at Paraguay. 3-1-1 is their record in Lima in these qualifiers, a run which includes a win against Chile and a draw with Argentina. Once again, the focus of attention will be on the 'Fantastic 4', as Farfan, Pizzaro, Guerrero and Vargas are expected to start and to command Peru's offensive. Ecuador is sitting quite comfortably on 2nd place, 5 points ahead of the last qualifying place, and also with a game in hand. So it's really quite hard to see them failing to qualify after such an incredible campaign. However, almost all of their points came at home, as they have a 0-2-2 record away from home. Tonight they will also have to cope with the absence of in-form striker Felipe Caicedo, which could prove a big blow to them. All in all, Peru is the team that has a lot at stake here, they have some classy players in offense, and they could take advantage of Ecuador's struggle's outside their country. GL!
Peru (-0.25 AH) @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
May 26, 2013
Sporting Cristal - Sport Huancayo
Peru Primera Divsion, Descentralizado
This should be a match that promises a lot, as we will see in action two of the most offensive teams in the league. League leaders Sporting Cristal seem to be in a league of their own, as they have the best attack so far, with 10 goals scored more than any other team. And they are the strongest when they play at home, where they scored 23 goals. They are still undefeated at home, and they also have a positive record when it comes to under/over, with 8 of their last 10 games ending with at least 3 goals. On the other side of the field, we will have a surprising Sport Huancayo, who have been performing above expectations and find themselves on 4th place, with 9 points snatched in away games (a very good record for a traditional 'home' team). And I'm confident that we should be seeing some goals here, as Huancayo have the second best offense in the league, with 24 goals scored, but also one of the fragile defenses, with 23 conceded (only 3 teams have a worse record). Huancayo have failed to score in only 2 games so far. Cristal will be at full strength, without any absences of injuries, and they will also repeat the line-up that trashed San Martin last week by 3-0. Goals should be plenty. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
This should be a match that promises a lot, as we will see in action two of the most offensive teams in the league. League leaders Sporting Cristal seem to be in a league of their own, as they have the best attack so far, with 10 goals scored more than any other team. And they are the strongest when they play at home, where they scored 23 goals. They are still undefeated at home, and they also have a positive record when it comes to under/over, with 8 of their last 10 games ending with at least 3 goals. On the other side of the field, we will have a surprising Sport Huancayo, who have been performing above expectations and find themselves on 4th place, with 9 points snatched in away games (a very good record for a traditional 'home' team). And I'm confident that we should be seeing some goals here, as Huancayo have the second best offense in the league, with 24 goals scored, but also one of the fragile defenses, with 23 conceded (only 3 teams have a worse record). Huancayo have failed to score in only 2 games so far. Cristal will be at full strength, without any absences of injuries, and they will also repeat the line-up that trashed San Martin last week by 3-0. Goals should be plenty. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 1.87, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON
May 23, 2013
Juan Aurich - Sport Huancayo
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Juan Aurich and Sport Huancayo will be getting up to date tonight, as they will clash in Chiclayo. This will take away Huancayo's altitude advantage, and put the ball in Aurich's field. Both teams are around the middle of the table, so for sure both will want a win, in order to leap-frog a couple of places. Aurich are as strong as ever at home, with a record of 5-1-1, despite a recent decline in form (they have won just 2 of their last 10 games, but 6 of them were played as visitors, and they also had a home clash with Alianza Lima... the good part is that from those 10 matches, they have only lost 2: the one with Alianza, and the visit to league runner-ups Garcilaso). Huancayo have been surprising so far if it comes to their away form: they are usually strong at home, suffering a total transformation when traveling, but this year they are looking quite good away from home, with a 2-2-3 record. But looking closely, from those 7 games, 3 have been played at altitude, and one against hapless San Martin. So their only real performance was the 3-2 win at Universitario. Aurich will definitely get back to their usual form, sooner rather than later, and they have traditionally dominated Huancayo, as they never lost to them at home, and have 5 consecutive wins against them, with a goal difference of 12-2. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. GL!
Aurich (-0.75 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Juan Aurich and Sport Huancayo will be getting up to date tonight, as they will clash in Chiclayo. This will take away Huancayo's altitude advantage, and put the ball in Aurich's field. Both teams are around the middle of the table, so for sure both will want a win, in order to leap-frog a couple of places. Aurich are as strong as ever at home, with a record of 5-1-1, despite a recent decline in form (they have won just 2 of their last 10 games, but 6 of them were played as visitors, and they also had a home clash with Alianza Lima... the good part is that from those 10 matches, they have only lost 2: the one with Alianza, and the visit to league runner-ups Garcilaso). Huancayo have been surprising so far if it comes to their away form: they are usually strong at home, suffering a total transformation when traveling, but this year they are looking quite good away from home, with a 2-2-3 record. But looking closely, from those 7 games, 3 have been played at altitude, and one against hapless San Martin. So their only real performance was the 3-2 win at Universitario. Aurich will definitely get back to their usual form, sooner rather than later, and they have traditionally dominated Huancayo, as they never lost to them at home, and have 5 consecutive wins against them, with a goal difference of 12-2. I'm expecting more of the same tonight. GL!
Aurich (-0.75 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
May 2, 2013
Universitario - Pacifico
Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado
Universitario have a debt to pay in front of their own supporters, as last week's 0-4 trashing at Sporting Cristal has left everybody at the club in a very bad state. The fans even protested against the players after such a dismal performance, so right now, it's time to make amends. And this trashing came as quite a surprise, as Universitario was looking set to fight for the top places, following a run of 3 wins in 4 games. Even so, nothing is lost yet, as with a win tonight they could well climb to second place, one point behind surprising league leaders Sport Huancayo. So the motivation is definitely there, for all the good reasons, and since they are playing at home, they should take control of the game and press forward. And in front of them, they will have an opponent that on paper looks quite accessible. Pacifico are a newly promoted team, that is showing some average performances. They are on 12th place in the standings, probably better than they would have hoped, but their recent performances were not convincing, as they have won just 2 games in their last 10. And away from home, they are still without a win. Of course, we could mention the draw that they've snatched at Cristal, and the fact that most of their defeats came in matches played at high altitude (Inti Gas, Melgar, Garcilaso), but besides defending in numbers, they don't have many weapons. Universitario should be fired up, and if they play with their hearts and with patience, they should be able to break down the wall. The odds went up a lot, so now we have some good value on the hosts. GL!
Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Universitario have a debt to pay in front of their own supporters, as last week's 0-4 trashing at Sporting Cristal has left everybody at the club in a very bad state. The fans even protested against the players after such a dismal performance, so right now, it's time to make amends. And this trashing came as quite a surprise, as Universitario was looking set to fight for the top places, following a run of 3 wins in 4 games. Even so, nothing is lost yet, as with a win tonight they could well climb to second place, one point behind surprising league leaders Sport Huancayo. So the motivation is definitely there, for all the good reasons, and since they are playing at home, they should take control of the game and press forward. And in front of them, they will have an opponent that on paper looks quite accessible. Pacifico are a newly promoted team, that is showing some average performances. They are on 12th place in the standings, probably better than they would have hoped, but their recent performances were not convincing, as they have won just 2 games in their last 10. And away from home, they are still without a win. Of course, we could mention the draw that they've snatched at Cristal, and the fact that most of their defeats came in matches played at high altitude (Inti Gas, Melgar, Garcilaso), but besides defending in numbers, they don't have many weapons. Universitario should be fired up, and if they play with their hearts and with patience, they should be able to break down the wall. The odds went up a lot, so now we have some good value on the hosts. GL!
Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
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