Sporting Cristal - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

In Peru, there are just 4 rounds left, so this match has an extra-importance for everybody. Garcilaso are 2 points ahead of Cristal at the top of the table, so a home win here will see a change of leader, while it will also open the door for Alianza Lima to get in the title fight. Garcilaso had a very solid and consistent first half of the season, capitalizing on last year's success and form, but recently, ever since the Liguilla has started, their performances have dropped quite a lot, winning just 2 games, dropping points at home and conceding a couple of goals every match (something very unusual for them, judging by their play in the last 2 years). That's why the odds are rather rightfully set here, as Cristal has the better team and also is more in form. Cristal probably have one of the best squads in Peru, and I would name them favorites to win Liguilla A. Also, in these matches, the points usually remain at home, but we've seen in last year's final that, when it mattered the most, Cristal was able to win away as well. GL!

Cristal (-0.75 AH) @ 1.97, 3/10
Result: 5-2, WON

Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Huge match in Lima this evening, as Alianza and Cristal are fighting for the chance to stay in the race for the final, and the result of this match could very well mean the end of one's hopes. Since Garcilaso won yesterday as expected, the only option left for these two teams to keep on hoping would be to win. Cristal could retake the lead and tie Garcilaso on points, while Alianza could move up to 2nd place, just 2 points behind the leader, and also overtaking Cristal in the table. And looking at the overall picture, this means a lot more to Alianza: they have already played their two games against Garcilaso, so if they don't win here, their chances will be really slim (this is also their second match against Cristal), and they'll need to wait for a miracle to happen. Cristal still has the home game against Garcilaso, so they could still catch them, but the fact that Alianza will overtake them could further complicate things. So a draw would definitely suit them, but it would mean that Alianza are pretty much buried. That is why I doubt this will be a 'wait-and-see' match, and normally, the hosts should try to take control and attack, while this will definitely open up some spaces for Cristal. And it's worth mentioning their attacking power, as they have the best offense in the league, and the 3 forwards that are expected to start the match (Avila, Ross and Chiroque) have 21 goals scored between themselves. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Real Garcilaso - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Garcilaso was going in a straight line for another final, but something happened halfway through the road, and instead of being with one foot in the final, they risk losing everything. They have 5 games without a win, and only won 2 of the last 10 matches, so they dropped the lead, and are now tied on points with Sporting Cristal. Their recent schedule wasn't an easy one, but that's still no excuse, and they need to regain their focus if they are to fight for the title again. That was the main order of business in the squad as well, and there is no better moment for that than today. Their opponents for today, Union Comercio, are dead-last in the group and deep in the relegation zone, 6 points behind salvation. But despite their lowly condition, they did manage to pull off some nice results recently, like a 3-1 win at Huancayo, or a 1-0 win at Sporting Cristal. However, today should be slightly different: despite their recent win at Huancayo, they don't feel comfortable playing at altitude, as they've lost 6 out of their 8 matches played in the mountains. They have also lost all 3 matches played against Garcilaso in Cusco, and since today I'm expecting an all-out approach from the hosts, they should be making quick work out of Comercio, especially since they could retake the lead, given that Cristal has a very difficult match to play against Alianza Lima. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Real Garcilaso - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

There is definitely some value here, as the odds are suggesting that Garcilaso is playing against one of the bottom teams. But they're not, and even though Alianza is a long way behind the leaders (they are 4th in the liguilla, 11 points behind), they are still one of the big teams, and one of the in-form teams. In recent matches, their main strength came from their home matches, as they were constantly beaten on the road by the likes of Inti Gas, Cienciano or San Martin. And the fact that this match will be played at altitude shouldn't make things any easier for them. However, I expect some extra-motivation today from the players, and another thing that keeps me hoping is the previous match between the two teams, back in June, when Alianza held for a 0-0 draw. Garcilaso have an 8-points advantage, so they should be quite safe for the next couple of weeks, but we do have to note a slight glimpse in their play (last week they dug hard to beat San Martin by the minimum). They are still undefeated at home, and it will be very hard for anybody to take that away from them, but Alianza looks like a team that can withstand them, and should be able to snatch a draw. The line is way too big, in my opinion, so my bet goes on Alianza. GL!

Alianza (+1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 2-2, WON

Inti Gas - Cobresol

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This one should be a no-brainer. Inti Gas are in a must win situation, otherwise their entire work throughout  the season would have been in vain. They currently sit on 7th place, the last one the brings with it a qualification to the Copa Sudamericana, and there is no place for missteps, as a list of 5 teams are rooting for that place. A draw won't do here, so Inti Gas has no other options than to take the three points. And normally, that shouldn't be a problem against a team in Cobresol's position. They have been relegated for quite some time, most of their players have left the team, and they are just waiting miserably for the season to end. Cobresol lost 18 of their 21 games played as visitors, conceding 52 goals, and if we add the altitude to this series of bad results, we should see a clear winner. The handicap is high, and the odds have dropped, but it's still worth taking for some medium stakes. GL!

Inti Gas (-1.5 AH) @ 1.72, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Well, I missed a tempo ever since the lines/odds have opened for this last round in Peru, but let's still try to take advantage of what we have. Sporting Cristal will play the final, and have no chance of losing the first place in the aggregate table. And as a result, they will be playing the first leg of the final next week, in Cusco. Since it will be a very tough match, as a result of the high altitude, they have already traveled to Cusco, where they will remain for an entire week, trying to get used to the air. Therefore, only the goalkeeper and two players from the first squad have remained in Lima, to face Cienciano, and they will be the only experienced players among a group of youngsters. Cienciano has no objectives left, so they will only play this match because they have to. However, they should use their main team, and if we look at the players quality-wise, they should have the advantage. The opening line was great, but the odds dropped a lot ever since. So , I'm taking this bet instead (with a fresh line), and I will definitely take them even as low as +0.5. GL!

Cienciano (+0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 3-3, WON

Alianza Lima - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I see some nice value here. Real Garcilaso has already won the group, and their only objective now is to finish first in the aggregate table. But that's not very important, as the league winners only choose which leg of the final they can play at home, and where the third match will be played in case of a draw... it would be a nice advantage, but not something to die for. Besides, they are not a great team when it comes to playing away from home, and their place in the final has been assured by some perfect home performances, where they won 20 out of 21 games. Meanwhile, Alianza made the poorest season in their recent history, as they are second from bottom in their group, and only 14th in the aggregate table (out of 16 teams). So the least they can do tonight is to win their last match in front of their home fans, and their decent home form should help them with this (only lost 2 games at home). They have already beaten Garcilaso at home this season, 2-0 back in June, and an extra-motivation factor should be that today it will be Juan Jayo's last match as a professional footballer. I don't see Alianza losing this one. GL!

Alianza DNB @ 1.82, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Sporting Cristal is, without a doubt, the best Peruvian team of the year. They managed to qualify to the final of the tournament 6 rounds before the end, and now they can just take it easy, and have some 'official training matches' against the rest of the teams. And they also have the liberty to choose which matches should they play with the first team, and in which matches should they try some of the less used players. Today, it will be the second scenario. Cristal is between two weekend matches, they played with the first team last Sunday, and most of them will be rested today, especially due to the high altitude of Cusco. Besides, even with their best players on the field, they still might have suffered today, as they struggled most of the times when they played at altitude this season: they did manage to beat Melgar and Leon, but other than that, they only have draws with Huancayo and Inti Gas, while losing the other 4 games (including the one with Cienciano, 1-2). The hosts are still hoping to get to a continental tournament next year, so for sure they will give their all. And it would also be a high profile win against the best team in the country. The handicap line makes this bet a must-take. GL!

Cienciano DNB @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

U San Martin - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

After San Martin returned to the first division, a couple of rounds after the start of the championship, they immediately made an impact, with some very good results against the top teams. However, that quickly changed, and now they find themselves near the bottom of the table. Their form isn't great either, with just one win in their last 7 games, but we have to look at their opponents from those matches as well: lost against the leaders Cristal and Cesar Vallejo as visitors, and against Universitario (all of them were derbies), drew in the altitude from Huanuco with Leon, and at home against high-flying Real Garcilaso, plus another draw at home against second placed (in their group) Jose Galvez. So really, all of them have been very tough games. And it should get a bit easier today, as Cienciano are awful travelers, with a record of 1-2-13. They lost the last 8 consecutive away matches, with a goal difference of 3-19. This isn't very unusual for them, as they are traditionally poor travelers, but San Martin do have to end their poor recent run. I think it will be a relief for them to play against Cienciano after so many hard matches, and we have a nice line to try (it would have been around -1.25 if San Martin would have been in good form). GL!

San Martin (-0.75 AH) @ 1.82, 3/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-WON

Sporting Cristal - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Quick and small bet on this one, moving this match in my list from a no-bet, to a small stakes home win. Jose Galvez is fighting for their lives here, and only a win can help them. Any other result condemns them to relegate to Segunda Division, as in case of a draw, they will be at most equal on points with either Cienciano or Alianza Atletico, but with a far worse goal difference. So all their cards will be played here, and they'll go all-in from the start of the match in order to find those vital 3 points. Needless to say they will be with a full squad. For Cristal, the season is over, and with a huge disappointment, as after appearing to fight for the title in the first half of the season, they slowly faded, and missed everything, even a spot for Copa Sudamericana. This will be the farewell match for coach Rivera, and in order to keep his integrity and to avoid any comments, he decided to field his best players, so as not to give Jose Galvez and unfair advantages (although this can be done with ease, even with the regulars in the field). That's why I give them the upper hand here, especially with the current odds, but the stakes will be small, as despite Cristal's full strength team, they are still fighting for nothing, and motivation is probably as low as it gets. GL!

Sporting Cristal DNB @ 1.76, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Alianza Lima - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams have finished the season in the upper part of the table, and neither one of them has the necessity to win here. Furthermore, both teams will be using alternative teams, for different reasons. San Martin will rest all of their regular players, because just like Leon, they have to play the final in just 4 days, so it's essential for them to avoid injuries or suspensions. And most of the players that are expected to play today are the ones that also played last week, losing at home to the last placed team, Total Chalaco. Not impressive... On the other hand, Alianza secured their Libertadores spot, in favor of Universitario, and with their objective clinched, they have decided to give early holidays to several key players, the ones that have been playing constantly. Therefore, players like Libman (GK), Fleitas (DF), Gonzalez (MF), Alex Sanchez (MF) and Quinteros (MF) won't take any parts in today's clash. But, besides the players already in the off-season, coach Costas has stated he will use the best available players, as he wishes to avenge that 0-4 trashing they received last time they played against San Martin. And even without those 5 players, they should still have enough quality left to dispatch San Martin's reserves/youngsters. Smaller stakes than for Sport Boys though. GL!

Alianza Lima @ 2.05, 4/10 

Result: 1-1, LOST

Total Chalaco - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Not the greatest of bets here, but I think it's worth a shot here. The thing that makes it a bit tricky is the fact that both teams are playing for nothing. Total Chalaco are already packing their bags for Segunda Division, while Inti Gas can breathe easily, as they live to see another season in Primera, while they are not fighting for anything in this last round.So, motivation should be weak for both teams, but Chalaco's endless problems are making me lean towards the visitors. The players and staff of Chalaco are still being abandoned by the people in charge, as they have been for the past couple of months. They haven't been paid in quite a while, and for some matches, they even had to take taxis to reach the stadium, as the owner didn't even provide them with a bus. For today, a bus will be provided by the Federation. Sadly for them, the players are sick and tired of this treatement, and all of them are wishing it to be over. That's why several players have decided not to show up for this match, and the coach will have at his disposal only a few regulars... the rest of the team will have to be filled with youngsters. Now, Inti Gas isn't a great team, especially when playing away, but morale is sure to be higher, and they have a fair chance here. GL!

Inti Gas DNB @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 2-2, VOID

Alianza Lima - Total Chalaco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Another capital match for both of them. Alianza is going for the Libertadores ticket, having Universitario breathing down on the back of their necks, while Chalaco is playing their last hopes of remaining in the division for 2011. However, Chalaco's hopes should begin fading, as realistically speaking, they can only fight for the 3 points against Inti Gas in the last round. Don't see how they will be able to snatch some points here, or next round at San Martin. Adding to that, Chalaco's financial troubles are still of actuality, and even this week there have been protests from the players, threatening the directors, and missing a few training sessions, being on strike. Morale is low, money is scarce, relegation looks like a certain thing, so probably, deep inside, the players have already surrendered. Meanwhile, Alianza should give their best, and make the most of this match, as it will put them 5 points clear of Universitario, and it will give them some fresh air before the last 2 rounds, which could turn to be very difficult for them (at Inti Gas and hosting San Martin in the last round). And after two good results, the 2-2 draw with Universitario and the 1-0 win at Cristal, morale should also be at the top. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-1, HALF LOST

Jose Galvez - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams are still having to fight for, that is why I'm expecting a committed performance from all of the players. Universitario are 5 points behind Alianza, with 3 matches left, and they aren't giving up hope to catch their bitter rivals. They can be encouraged by Alianza's tougher schedule, as they will have to travel next week to Inti Gas, where it will be a difficult visit, before finishing the Liguilla at home, against San Martin. So, Alianza with some tough games remaining are almost sure of losing some points, a thing which Universitario could speculate to put some more pressure on Los Intimos. Meanwhile, Jose Galvez are fighting to avoid relegation, and should have all their regulars fit, as they chose to rest them in their previous match, the visit at Inti Gas that ended in a 0-6 trashing. They are considering this match to be the most important of the season, and indeed, with a win today, they will have very high chances to remain in Primera next year. They will do everything in their power to win the match, so I'm expecting a good game, with both teams going for the win and for the goals. Every outcome is possible, and since I'm expecting both teams to score, the over looks like a good option to bet on. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.06, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This should be the bet of the day, and I'm giving it huge confidence. Inti Gas, as we all know, is one of the best home teams. They have a pretty good squad, but the altitude of Ayacucho also helps them a lot. They have indeed lost a total of 5 matches at home, but most of them were against the better teams of the league (San Martin, Cesar Vallejo, Leon Huanuco). They are still having mathematical chances to catch a place for Copa Sudamericana, but seriously, they have as much chances as Huancayo, and that's practically nil. But I expect them to fight for a win here, as they should look for redemption, after the flop from last match, when they lost at home against Sporting Cristal. But the good stuff from this match comes from Jose Galvez. They are in some serious trouble with relegation, and they are saving almost all of their regulars for their next home game, against Universitario. They have never won when playing at Inti Gas, and keeping a realistic view on the situation, they know a full strength team will most probably lose again, and will also suffer a lot physically from the altitude. So, a number of 9 players have been given some days off following their last match, and will only report to training on Sunday. That leaves a few reserves for today's game, while the rest of the squad will be filled with youngsters. Doubt they will handle the pressure and the thick air, so I'm expecting the hosts to win quite comfortably. GL!

Inti Gas (-1 AH) @ 1.68, 6/10

Result: 6-0, WON

Universitario - Inti Gas

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

I'm going for the quality and the motivation here. No need to speak about the obvious advantage in quality for Universitario, but it should be worth to analyze the motivational factors. Universitario are 4th in the aggregate table, and are almost sure of their qualification to Copa Sudamericana, but of course they are gunning for more. 6 points is the gap between them and 3rd placed Alianza, but anything could still happen in the last 6 rounds, and the schedule seems to favor Universitario a bit, as they have to play Sporting Cristal and Univ San Martin at home, only the derby against Alianza being a tricky away game, while Alianza have some very difficult travels, at Cristal and Inti Gas. So the season isn't over yet for Universitario. On the other hand, Inti Gas are practically playing just for fun. They are safe from relegation, and with very very slim chances to hope for Sudamericana, as it's hard to believe they will the 11 points that separate them from Juan Aurich.And with their dreadful away form, it's impossible. They only have one win on the road, that dates back to February, and surprisingly, they have won on the very same stadium where they will play tonight, against Universitario. Although the Cremas were in the middle of their Copa Libertadores campaign, and were mixing up their squad a bit, so that should minimize a bit Inti Gas's merits. No important team news (U will make probably some changes, but none of them is forced), so as I said, quality and motivation should prevail. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.70, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Total Chalaco - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Surprised to see odds of over 2.20 on Universitario. Despite both teams having something to fight for, and both expected to show a lot of determination tonight, class difference is huge in Universitario's favor. Chalaco is last in the aggregate table, which leads to a direct relegation, and despite being only 6 points behind the safe zone, I really doubt they'll pull a miracle and save themselves. They are just playing plain poorly, not improving at all, and losing constantly, having lost an impressive 7 matches from the last 10, including a 1-5 trashing at home against San Martin. Universitario is also in a must-win situation, as they renewed their chances for Libertadores this week, after winning against CNI, and they are now just 4 points behind Alianza. Piero Alva returns to the first team (he had a last minute problem before the midweeks game), so that should also boost a bit their offense. One more interesting thing here is that Chalaco have never beaten Universitario, and in 5 visits to the Miguel Grau stadium, the Cremas have won 4 times, adding another 1-1 draw last year. Good odds for this one, but I'll go for a -0.25, which still has good odds, as Chalaco's recent 1-1 draw with Alianza is putting me off a bit. GL!

Universitario (-0.25 AH) @ 2.10, 3/10

Result: 0-0, HALF LOST

FBC Melgar - Cienciano

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

No matter how I look at this match, I can't see beyond a clear and solid victory for the home side. Cienciano came very close of being the first team relegated yesterday, when the players threatened the chairman with not traveling to Arequipa, which would have resulted in a second walk-over and in direct relegation. But the debts have been played, and the match is finally going to be played. Just that there is one more problem here: chairman Silva wanted the team to travel by bus, and all the players have refused, since they played just 2 days ago in Piura, and Arequipa is on the other side of the country, so even the players are saying that if they travel by bus, they will be trashed. But despite their protest, without any funds for plane transportation, they had to settle for the bus, leaving from Lima yesterday late in the evening. I expect them to attack tonight, as if they lose here, they will most probably relegate anyway, but with the state of fatigue they are having, I can see Melgar putting a few goals past them. Melgar should be in full force, and striker Meza Cuadra is back in the starting line-up. They are on a safe position for the moment, but a win here will see them 11 points clear, and will be as good as sealing their place in the First League for next season. Low odds for the current line, so I'm going to lower the stakes a bit, and go for the over, as I expect at least 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Universitario - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This could be one of Universitario's last chances to close the gap on Alianza, and still hope for the last place that sends them to Copa Libertadores. Alianza plays at San Martin, so they could be in for some points loss, therefore U could get 4 points behind their arch-rivals, and a showdown will likely take place in 2 weeks, when they face each other again. So this is by all means a must-win game for the Cremas, because if they lose points, they could even find themselves out of the Sudamericana race. That is why they will repeat the formation that took the field against Jose Galvez, a very offensive 3-4-3, with 4 attacking players: Alva, Gigena, Labarthe and Ruidiaz, so I expect a lot of goals from then, and they could decide the match (and this bet) by themselves. Against Jose Galvez they won 3-1, but there were at least twice as many chances missed. CNI lost their last home game, but once again, they didn't play bad at all, creating some good chances, but missing once again some quality finishing. Don't expect too much attacking from them, but their defense is quite awful, and should be an easu job for U's forwards. They are also as good as saved from relegation, and with no chances for Sudamericana, they should just try to play some nice football for their remaining matches. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.70, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

CNI - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Nice odds for this match. CNI isn't as bad as the odds or their league position suggests, as they usually play nice football, but they are either unlucky, or they miss quality finishing. But they can put quite some pressure on their opponents, especially when playing at home, and weaker teams usually choke when playing against them. A win today will almost surely seal their ticket for the first league for 2011, and they should also receive a boost as they welcome back their main offensive players, Barrena and Vergara. Last week they lost rather unfairly at Sporting Cristal, after a late penalty, but a draw would have been maybe more correct. But now they are motivated to get back the lost points. Jose Galvez are in deeper and deeper problems. They haven't trained for days before the Universitario game, as a protest for not being payed for several months. And this week was more of the same, as training didn't go as usual, payments still haven't been made, morale between the players is low, and the coach is seriously thinking about resignation. On top of that, we should add their dreadful away performances, where they only recorded 1 win and 4 draws in 17 matches, and we should have a sure victim here in Iquitos. GL!

CNI (-0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST