Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Let's start with the obvious here: Jose Galvez is the poorest team in this group, and one of the weakest teams in the league. They are rock-bottom, on 8th place, 7 points behind San Martin, and they also have a horrendous away record, having lost 13 from the 16 games they've played, with an away goal difference of 14-39. And today's match will be played at high altitude, so there's an extra-factor against them. Inti Gas are solid and stable, as they sit on second place, 8 points behind the leaders. And while their chances of going in the final are very slim, they could very well qualify for a continental cup, so that should keep them motivated. Now, there is also an extra reason that I'm taking a rather high handicap. Jose Galvez were supposed to travel to Ayacucho yesterday, and they did, but due to some meteorological problems, their flight was returned to Lima. This means that they'll travel once again by plane today, two and a half hours before the kick-off time, and as soon as they reach Ayacucho, they will travel to the stadium by bus. Very little time of recovery, and they should also fully feel the effects of the altitude. GL!

Inti Gas (-1.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-0, HALF-LOST

Leon de Huanuco - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

The newly promoted teams in Peru have been full of surprises this season. Besides Real Garcilaso, who are having a great season and are fighting for the top spots, Jose Galvez also had very good results, sitting currently on 6th place. Really surprising for them, but all in all, I don't expect them to stay there for too long. They are in good form, winning 5 of their last 10 games, but that could be misleading, as the only big merit from those wins was against Juan Aurich, as they won 2-1 as visitors. Other than that, they've beaten Inti Gas and Huancayo (traditionally poor travelers), and Sport Boys and Cobresol, the poorest teams in the league. Besides that, they also have a very poor record when playing at high altitude, losing to Melgar, Cienciano and Garcilaso, with a goal difference of 2-8. Leon seems to be a lot weaker than in their previous seasons, but they still should have enough to win today. The high altitude from Huanuco will surely play in their favor, and with quite a solid home record (4-4-1), they should have too much for a team that struggles in hard playing conditions. GL!

Leon (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Cobresol - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

After a tempest in the opening round, when a lot of teams were forbidden to use their proffesional players, and the rest of the team showed solidarity and also used the youth squads, the Primera Division of Peru is slowly getting back on track, despite the sad news that San Martin has retired from the competition. Most teams are looking ok now, and will finally be able to use their main squad. Cobresol is one of them, as after a 1-2 loss in the first round, at Cristal, playing with the youth team, they can finally start their campaign. This time they will be at home, against newly promoted Jose Galvez, and in theory, this should be an easy game for them. That is because Jose Galvez will once again be forced to use their youth squad, because their proposed payment plan hasn't been accepted by the federation. So, we have a decent home team, using real players, against a newly promoted team, who is still an unknown in away matches, forced to use very young and inexperienced players. Clear quality difference here, and although the odds went down, it's still worth a bet. GL!

Cobresol (-0.5 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Quick and small bet on this one, moving this match in my list from a no-bet, to a small stakes home win. Jose Galvez is fighting for their lives here, and only a win can help them. Any other result condemns them to relegate to Segunda Division, as in case of a draw, they will be at most equal on points with either Cienciano or Alianza Atletico, but with a far worse goal difference. So all their cards will be played here, and they'll go all-in from the start of the match in order to find those vital 3 points. Needless to say they will be with a full squad. For Cristal, the season is over, and with a huge disappointment, as after appearing to fight for the title in the first half of the season, they slowly faded, and missed everything, even a spot for Copa Sudamericana. This will be the farewell match for coach Rivera, and in order to keep his integrity and to avoid any comments, he decided to field his best players, so as not to give Jose Galvez and unfair advantages (although this can be done with ease, even with the regulars in the field). That's why I give them the upper hand here, especially with the current odds, but the stakes will be small, as despite Cristal's full strength team, they are still fighting for nothing, and motivation is probably as low as it gets. GL!

Sporting Cristal DNB @ 1.76, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Jose Galvez - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Both teams are still having to fight for, that is why I'm expecting a committed performance from all of the players. Universitario are 5 points behind Alianza, with 3 matches left, and they aren't giving up hope to catch their bitter rivals. They can be encouraged by Alianza's tougher schedule, as they will have to travel next week to Inti Gas, where it will be a difficult visit, before finishing the Liguilla at home, against San Martin. So, Alianza with some tough games remaining are almost sure of losing some points, a thing which Universitario could speculate to put some more pressure on Los Intimos. Meanwhile, Jose Galvez are fighting to avoid relegation, and should have all their regulars fit, as they chose to rest them in their previous match, the visit at Inti Gas that ended in a 0-6 trashing. They are considering this match to be the most important of the season, and indeed, with a win today, they will have very high chances to remain in Primera next year. They will do everything in their power to win the match, so I'm expecting a good game, with both teams going for the win and for the goals. Every outcome is possible, and since I'm expecting both teams to score, the over looks like a good option to bet on. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.06, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Inti Gas - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This should be the bet of the day, and I'm giving it huge confidence. Inti Gas, as we all know, is one of the best home teams. They have a pretty good squad, but the altitude of Ayacucho also helps them a lot. They have indeed lost a total of 5 matches at home, but most of them were against the better teams of the league (San Martin, Cesar Vallejo, Leon Huanuco). They are still having mathematical chances to catch a place for Copa Sudamericana, but seriously, they have as much chances as Huancayo, and that's practically nil. But I expect them to fight for a win here, as they should look for redemption, after the flop from last match, when they lost at home against Sporting Cristal. But the good stuff from this match comes from Jose Galvez. They are in some serious trouble with relegation, and they are saving almost all of their regulars for their next home game, against Universitario. They have never won when playing at Inti Gas, and keeping a realistic view on the situation, they know a full strength team will most probably lose again, and will also suffer a lot physically from the altitude. So, a number of 9 players have been given some days off following their last match, and will only report to training on Sunday. That leaves a few reserves for today's game, while the rest of the squad will be filled with youngsters. Doubt they will handle the pressure and the thick air, so I'm expecting the hosts to win quite comfortably. GL!

Inti Gas (-1 AH) @ 1.68, 6/10

Result: 6-0, WON

CNI - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Nice odds for this match. CNI isn't as bad as the odds or their league position suggests, as they usually play nice football, but they are either unlucky, or they miss quality finishing. But they can put quite some pressure on their opponents, especially when playing at home, and weaker teams usually choke when playing against them. A win today will almost surely seal their ticket for the first league for 2011, and they should also receive a boost as they welcome back their main offensive players, Barrena and Vergara. Last week they lost rather unfairly at Sporting Cristal, after a late penalty, but a draw would have been maybe more correct. But now they are motivated to get back the lost points. Jose Galvez are in deeper and deeper problems. They haven't trained for days before the Universitario game, as a protest for not being payed for several months. And this week was more of the same, as training didn't go as usual, payments still haven't been made, morale between the players is low, and the coach is seriously thinking about resignation. On top of that, we should add their dreadful away performances, where they only recorded 1 win and 4 draws in 17 matches, and we should have a sure victim here in Iquitos. GL!

CNI (-0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Universitario - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Very low odds on this one, but it will take something close to a miracle for it to fail. Universitario has said good-bye to the final, and now their only objective is to reach a place that allows them to qualify for next years' Copa Libertadores. And for that, they need as much points as they can get, as 7 points are separating them from Alianza and Cesar Vallejo, who are looking like their main rivals for the final Libertadores spot. That is why U's coach Del Solar (who will finally be able to lead the game from the bench) prepared a very offensive formation of 3-4-3, the same that helped them trash Melgar 4-0, a few weeks ago. So it could ve very likely that of offense we'll see Labarthe, Alva and Ruidiaz, a very good attacking trio. The main doubt is in defense, where Galliquio is with a shattered morale after being kicked-out of the National team, but even if he won't play, he defense will be composed of Carmona, Rabanal and Galvan, which looks very good.

Jose Galvez is entering in a critical state, and I doubt they had much preparation for this game. They didn't train for several days this week, as a protest against the management, who have failed to pay them for more than 2 months, and they are now threatening not to return to Chimbote after this match. That means that there are low chances that their minds are focused on the game, which also means their recent good form is pretty much useless. Universitario could have soundly beaten them even under normal circumstances, but now, it looks like a dead-certain outcome. Over could also be a choice here, but I'm afraid of a 2-0. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Universidad San Martin - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

The Saints have a great opportunity to practically close the Liguilla A and qualify for the finals when they receive Jose Galvez today, as with a win they will be 11 points clear of Alianza Lima, and I doubt they will be able to recuperate so many points. With San Martin still active in the Sudamericana, 3 points for them today will be golden, as they will be able to focus on the continental Cup. However, this also has a bad part, as some players will be rested today, due to some fitness problems or minor injuries, with the coach not wanting to risk them ahead of their Emelec re-match. Those players are: FW Alemano (26/10), MF Quinteros (23/6) and DF Ramos (19/1), but I’m not worried, since Garcia, Cuevas and Contreras (their replacements) are still good enough to help the team win today, and overall, San Martin is class better than Jose Galvez.

Jose Galvez are last in Liguilla B, and are looking like big favorites for the drop to Segunda Division. Their game isn’t improving at all, and they have won only once in the last 14 matches, away at a depleted Sporting Cristal, so they don’t get much credit for that. Otherwise, just a few draws with more or less equally poor teams, and despite taking a point last week from Alianza Lima, it was more than undeserved, since it came after a penalty scored deep in injury time. I doubt they will be able to capitalize on that point, and against San Martin we should see the real value of this team. GL!

San Martin (-1.25 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Jose Galvez - Alianza Lima

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

At the first look, I didn’t like this match at all, but after some more thought into it, it started to look better and better. I mean, the class difference between the teams was more than obvious from the beginning, and their positions on the table and their objectives speak for themselves. Jose Galvez can be a decent team, but only when they are playing against other strugglers, and even then, they rarely win (from the last 10 games they’ve only won one, at Sporting Cristal, but they were missing a lot of first team regulars… otherwise, they lost against almost all of the big teams they have faced). Don’t see how they will save themselves from relegation, as in comparison to them, even Sport Boys and Total Chalaco look one class better.

Alianza is gunning the leader, and they need to pull all they can to get there, as they have a massive 7 points gap to cover. However, San Martin also plays in Sudamericana, and some slip-ups are expected, and that is on what Alianza is also counting. First tough match is today, and if San Martin loses at Cristal and Alianza wins, the gap shrinks to a more realistic 4 points. Besides, the run for the last Libertadores ticket is also wide open, after Leon’s stumble last night. MF Quinteros (10/2) and MF Joel Sanchez (21/3) won’t be able to play tonight, but otherwise, coach Costas has the best squad at his disposal, including Ovelar’s return (though it remains to be seen if he will be forced). Recent form and h-2-h are both in Alianza’s favor (they have won 9 of their last 14 encounters), and I’m pretty confident they will make it 10 tonight. GL!

Alianza Lima (-0.25 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10 

Result: 1-1, HALF LOST