Sport Huancayo - CNI

Peru Primera Division

This is another match between 2 teams with different realities and different projects. Huancayo wants to keep summing up points in hope that they'll qualify for a continental competition, while CNI needs the points in order to hope that they'll still play in the first division next year. Sport Huancayo is a very good home team, losing just 2 of the 10 home games that they played (and those defeats came from leaders Alianza Lima, and from 'away specialists' Cobresol), but otherwise they rarely have problems in keeping the points at home, especially against lower opponents. CNI are one of the worst teams in Primera, along with Alianza Atletico, and their recent form isn't encouraging at all, losing their last 5 matches. And there is little to hope for when playing as visitors, having a 1-3-6 record for their away games. Mutual matches also greatly favor Huancayo, as besides winning as visitors earlier in the year, they have also won their previous 2 home matches, with a solid goal difference: 4-0 last year, and 3-1 in 2009. I expect something similar today, as Huancayo are more than capable of covering the handicap. GL!

Huancayo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.73, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Universitario - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Important day for Universitario, but unfortunately the celebrations are stained by internal problems. Today, the Peruvian giants will be celebrating 87 years of their proud history, so a win at home would be the best possible way to celebrate, and to make the fans happy. And players have already said they will be giving their all to win on this day, and are trying to put behind them the financial insecurity (they are more or less up to date with the wages, but there is still some insecurity for the near future). And they also need to pick themselves up from last round's defeat at Aurich (heavy match, so the players shouldn't take it too hard). Forward Johan Fano is suspended, and will be replaced by Ruidiaz, which is a good thing in my opinion, as Ruidiaz is faster than Fano, and more agile, with very good dribbling skills. Vitti is also playing, and his skills are likely to make the difference in this match. CNI managed a win last round, against Cesar Vallejo (unstable team), but now should be a totally different story, especially since CNI are renowned poor traveler, having won just one match away from home this season. Quality advantage goes for the Cremas, and if mentally they will be ready, this should go as an easy crowd-pleasing victory. GL!

Universitario (-1 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Inti Gas - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Good opportunity for Inti Gas to make a solid performance at home, as usual, and to take 3 points that will help them remain in the top half of the table. They will use more or less the same team that lost at Juan Aurich during the weekend, as they will once again have a few unavailable players: Moisela is suspended, while Landauri is injured, but as I said before, just Landauri can be considered an important absence, as he is the only one of the above-mentioned players that has featured regularly. Meanwhile, CNI will also have some absences, but they are quite important for the team: defender Portilla (12 matches played so far) is suspended, while midfielders Noronha (11 matches) and Barrena (10 matches) are doubtful through injury, and it looks like they have slim chances of playing tonight. Moreover, there is also a high altitude in Ayacucho, and that usually helps the home team, especially against smaller teams that play in the lowlands, like CNI. In their 4 trips to Ayacucho, CNI has lost all the matches, with a goal difference of 1-11. Don't see it much different today, as I expect Inti Gas to win it comfortably and recover from the heavy beat-down suffered last Sunday. GL!

Inti Gas (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

CNI - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Good chance for CNI tonight to remain in the upper part of the table, perhaps even to move up a few places. They will face Sport Huancayo, a team that is a traditional poor traveler, and that makes all the necessary points to survive on their home ground. CNI didn't get to a good start of the season, as they lost 0-3 at Cesar Vallejo, and only managed a 1-1 draw at home against Universitario, despite having two extra men for more than a half. But slowly, they got better, and haven't lost since, including some high profile wins against champions San Martin and away at runner-ups Leon (both teams were using mixed players, but it's still something to win them both). And tonight they have a good shot of adding 3 more points to their tally. Huancayo has it's usual irregular campaign, and even in their high altitude stadium have only managed to win just once in 3 tries (3-0 with Vallejo). Didn't look too bad away from home, but they played in Cuzco (also at altitude), they drew against newly-promoted Cobresol, and lost at a troubled Universitario, despite getting an early lead. Tonight they will play on artificial pitch, something they're not very familiar with, and they will once again miss Mostto, whose absence seems to leave a big mark on his team. GL!

CNI (-0.5 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 1-3, LOST

Juan Aurich - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Lower lines with higher odds, in comparison to last weekend's match. I was on Aurich -1.5 then, and only a total retardation from them made me lose the bet, as they were leading 2-0 and found themselves equalized in the closing stage of the match (conceded in '82 and '86). Lack of concentration probably, as they scored the winner eventually, in the last seconds of play. Hope they have learned something from this, and we'll see them more focused tonight, knowing that the match lasts 90 minutes, not 80. Because otherwise they played a good match, could have easily been more than 2-0, and up until those final minutes they were looking solid, and their win seemed like a lock. Meanwhile, CNI looks like a super crappy team. They were trashed at Cesar Vallejo with 0-3 in the first round, while last week they played with 2 extra men at home against Universitario, and barely managed to equalize, after an 84th minute penalty. They were unable to put pressure on a wounded Universitario, and despite their advantage in the number of players, they were second best on the pitch for long periods of time. Unless some dramatic improvements, I don't see them standing much chances in front of Aurich, and there is no reason to believe they improved in just a week. So it's all going to be up to Aurich to close the match, and I hope they won't make the same mistake again. GL!

Juan Aurich (-1.25 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

CNI - Universitario

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Both teams started the new season poorly, with CNI being trashed 3-0 at Cesar Vallejo (without putting up much of a fight - actually, they even managed to concede when they were 1 man up), while Universitario failed to break Juan Aurich's bunker, finishing the match 0-0 as hosts. That scoreless draw came mainly because of some technical stupidity made by coach del Solar, as he put Vitti (best player of the league in 2010) in a midfield position, despite him being used to play, and giving his best performances, as an attacking midfielder, behind the strikers. That's where he'll play today, so expect a big boost to the Cremas offense. He looked good on that position in this week's training session, as well as his offensive team-mates: Alvarez, Alva and Ruidiaz. Therefore, we'll see a pretty offensive Universitario line-up, against what should be a defensive CNI, who will want to avoid another trashing. Las Cremas don't usually find it easy in Iquitos, winning just 1 out of 3 matches played there, but they have a lot of potential, while CNI seems to be much weaker than last season. GL!

Universitario @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Universitario - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

This could be one of Universitario's last chances to close the gap on Alianza, and still hope for the last place that sends them to Copa Libertadores. Alianza plays at San Martin, so they could be in for some points loss, therefore U could get 4 points behind their arch-rivals, and a showdown will likely take place in 2 weeks, when they face each other again. So this is by all means a must-win game for the Cremas, because if they lose points, they could even find themselves out of the Sudamericana race. That is why they will repeat the formation that took the field against Jose Galvez, a very offensive 3-4-3, with 4 attacking players: Alva, Gigena, Labarthe and Ruidiaz, so I expect a lot of goals from then, and they could decide the match (and this bet) by themselves. Against Jose Galvez they won 3-1, but there were at least twice as many chances missed. CNI lost their last home game, but once again, they didn't play bad at all, creating some good chances, but missing once again some quality finishing. Don't expect too much attacking from them, but their defense is quite awful, and should be an easu job for U's forwards. They are also as good as saved from relegation, and with no chances for Sudamericana, they should just try to play some nice football for their remaining matches. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.70, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

CNI - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Nice odds for this match. CNI isn't as bad as the odds or their league position suggests, as they usually play nice football, but they are either unlucky, or they miss quality finishing. But they can put quite some pressure on their opponents, especially when playing at home, and weaker teams usually choke when playing against them. A win today will almost surely seal their ticket for the first league for 2011, and they should also receive a boost as they welcome back their main offensive players, Barrena and Vergara. Last week they lost rather unfairly at Sporting Cristal, after a late penalty, but a draw would have been maybe more correct. But now they are motivated to get back the lost points. Jose Galvez are in deeper and deeper problems. They haven't trained for days before the Universitario game, as a protest for not being payed for several months. And this week was more of the same, as training didn't go as usual, payments still haven't been made, morale between the players is low, and the coach is seriously thinking about resignation. On top of that, we should add their dreadful away performances, where they only recorded 1 win and 4 draws in 17 matches, and we should have a sure victim here in Iquitos. GL!

CNI (-0.25 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Alianza Lima - CNI

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla A

Following last week's semi-bump that Alianza received at Jose Galvez, following their 1-1 draw, the gap between Los Intimos and Universidad San Martin grew even bigger, but with the Saints winning their first leg in the Sudamericana, they are hopeful of a longer run, and just as well, Alianza will be hopeful San Martin will take some bad steps in the league as well. But first of all, they will need to change their play, as against Jose Galvez they weren't even nearly impressive. That is why everybody at the club, from staff to manager and to players want to put in their best performance today, and score as many as possible to CNI. Despite their small set-back last week, Alianza are still the most in-form team, winning 7 out of their last 10 league games, and is also one of the best home teams, equal with Leon on the stats, losing just 1 and drawing 2 more. Goal difference is pretty much as impressive as Leon's, so a win today shouldn't be a problem. One more interesting thing is that Alianza has won all their games against CNI since last year, most of them by a huge difference of goals, and their most recent one was two months ago, when Alianza trashed them with a 4-1 score. I can't really see CNI holding out here, and a handicap win for Alianza seems more than possible. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST