Sport Huancayo - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Still can't believe the opening odds here, and even though they have been slightly corrected, we still have value in this bet. Huancayo are doing a good campaign so far, sitting on 5th place in the table, and losing just one match at home, helped mainly by the high altitude present in their city. So, of course, they are pretty much favorites against anyone when playing at home, but today's game isn't a usual one. Leon de Huanuco are just 5 points behind, and if we look at their recent matches, they are one of the most in-form teams in Peru, beating Garcilaso and Universitario in their last 3 games (both of them at home, though). But what makes the current odds ridiculous, is the fact that Leon also plays at high altitude, so they shouldn't be affected by Huancayo's main weapon. And if we take a closer look to Huancayo's records, we can see that they drew at home with Garcilaso and Melgar, and lost with Inti Gas, all 3 of them being teams used to play at altitude. Leon are traditionally a tough nut to crack, so to give +0.75 for this match is just insane. GL!

Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10
Result: 1-2, WON

FBC Melgar - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Home-monsters FBC Melgar will be facing an irregular Leon de Huanuco tonight. There's not a big difference between the two teams in the standings, with Melgar sitting on 9th place, just 2 points ahead of their opponents, but the thing that makes Melgar favorite for this game is their fantastic home form. They have won 6 out of 9 home games so far... their last 6, actually, and that is really an incredible feat at first sight. But if we look closer at the teams they've played against, we can see that not a single one of them is used to playing at high altitude. Previous to those 6 straight wins, they've played against Alianza Lima, Cienciano and Inti Gas (the last two coming from cities at altitude), and they've lost all of them. And Leon is a team that relishes these kinds of matches. They have a good record in their away games, have a solid team that's hard to break and can really put up a fight. Even though they're recent form hasn't been the best, I have faith that they won't go down so easily, and I'll back them with a small bet here. GL!

Leon (+0.5 AH) @ 1.83, 3/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Universitario - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Tough start for both teams this season, and it's strange to see them so low in the table (although we should have gotten used to that from last season). Both teams have lost 2 games so far, out of 6 played, but they also appear to be having difficulties in winning. Leon only managed to win 2-0 against newly promoted Cajamarca, while drawing at home against Melgar and at the other newly promoted team, Pacifico. They have also shown a huge inability to score goals, with just 3 goals in 6 games (although, to their credit, the defense is working quite all right, having conceded just 4). Universitario aren't doing much better either, but they have at least managed to win 2 games, against Juan Aurich and Cesar Vallejo (both being better ranked than Leon). We can see the same offensive inefficiency for Universitario, as they score 5 goals so far, but they are hopeful that it will end now, with the debut of fast-paced striker Raul Ruidiaz (he returns to his first club, after an awesome 2011 season, and after a good spell with U de Chile). He is expected to start today, along side Miguel Ximenez in attack (Ximenez has an awesome record in Peru, having scored 47 goals in 95 matches for Sporting Cristal, and 20 goals in 37 games for Universitario - since 2012). With this move, I think that Universitario will definitely improve, as they will have a fearsome offense, and they should have a bit more in themselves than Leon. GL!

Universitario (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 4-0, WON

Real Garcilaso - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Surprisingly enough, Garcilaso has so far not failed as they were expected. They are doing a good domestic campaign, and an incredible campaign in Libertadores, where they are topping the group with 7 points on their debut. I went against them several times before, and got burned almost every time, but the current odds are certainly an overreaction from the bookies. The only match where they shined was in the opening round against Huancayo, when they won 4-0. Other than that, I think it's fair to say that they were extremely lucky, especially in Libertadores, winning both matches with goals on counters in the closing minutes. Leon is used to playing at high altitude, and so far they've been looking solid (not very good, but solid enough). They are closing well the spaces, and since Garcilaso isn't too efficient in offense, this should be a closed-affair. It's just crazy to give a +1 handicap in such a match, especially since there won't be an altitude advantage. GL!

Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.14, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON

Real Garcilaso - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

The Liguilla has started, and in their group, Real Garcilaso are big favorites. Their home form has been brilliant so far, with a record of 15-1-0, and a win today could see them take back the leader's seat. And keep in mind that they are a newly promoted team. And exactly for that reason, I have some doubts they will be able to go all the way to the wire. And today they will have to face a team with more experienced, who already played a final of the league and also played in a continental competition. They haven't been enjoying the best season in 2012, as they are far away from the top places, but they are still a tough nut to crack, and even if they lose, they do it after a hard-fought match, and usually by the minimum difference. They haven't won for the last 9 consecutive away games, where they only managed to get one point, but all the losses came by just one goal, regardless of who they were playing against. No altitude advantage for Real today, and Leon could pose some problems here... despite the lack of results they are still strong, and as I said before, I have my doubts Real can challenge the title until the last breath. This line should be tried, but just with small stakes, as Leon's form isn't encouraging at all. GL!

Leon (+1 AH) @ 2.04, 2/10
Result: 2-1, VOID

Leon de Huanuco - Cobresol

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Last time I made a bet on Leon I lost, but this looks like a good opportunity to get that money back. There isn't much to say about them, as they are definitely not the team they were in the last 2 years, sitting at the middle of the table on 9th place, 12 points behind the league leaders. And their indestructible home fortress has also been breached, as they only won 4 of their 10 home games. But even so, they should not be underestimated, and I'm sure they are bound to come back. And today is a great chance to do that, as they are facing the worst travelers in the league, Cobresol, who have only won 1 game as visitors, losing all the other 9. The fact that the match will be played in the high altitude of Huanuco won't help them either, and so far they've lost all the matches played at altitude this season, with a goal difference of 2-9. They look pretty much hopeless, and I don't see how they can save themselves from relegation, so this is the perfect moment for Leon to bounce back. GL!

Leon (-1.25 AH) @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Jose Galvez

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

The newly promoted teams in Peru have been full of surprises this season. Besides Real Garcilaso, who are having a great season and are fighting for the top spots, Jose Galvez also had very good results, sitting currently on 6th place. Really surprising for them, but all in all, I don't expect them to stay there for too long. They are in good form, winning 5 of their last 10 games, but that could be misleading, as the only big merit from those wins was against Juan Aurich, as they won 2-1 as visitors. Other than that, they've beaten Inti Gas and Huancayo (traditionally poor travelers), and Sport Boys and Cobresol, the poorest teams in the league. Besides that, they also have a very poor record when playing at high altitude, losing to Melgar, Cienciano and Garcilaso, with a goal difference of 2-8. Leon seems to be a lot weaker than in their previous seasons, but they still should have enough to win today. The high altitude from Huanuco will surely play in their favor, and with quite a solid home record (4-4-1), they should have too much for a team that struggles in hard playing conditions. GL!

Leon (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Leon de Huanuco - Real Garcilaso

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Quite a low line for a type of match that usually provides goals. Real Garcilaso is without a doubt the surprise package of this season's Primera Division, sitting on second place after 10 rounds, only 1 point behind the leaders. And this is a great achievement for a team that promoted last season, after winning the Copa Peru, even though a great feat in this great run of form is the high altitude from their home ground, located in Cuzco. But not only that, as they also pulled off some nice results on some very difficult grounds (2-0 at Huancayo, 2-2 at Inti Gas, 0-0 at Juan Aurich). Now, this match will once again be played at high altitude, in Huanuco, and most of the times, when 2 teams used to the high altitude meet, there are several goals. Garcilaso is undefeated this year when playing 'high', but Leon are no pushovers, and are definitely better than Huancayo and Inti Gas. They also have an average of 2 goals scored/match at home, but with Garcilaso most probably coming to play football, not to put 10 men behind the ball, this line should be covered quite easily. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 3/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sport Boys are trying hard to prove that their stay in Primera Division hasn't been by accident, and they also are trying to lose their status as a typical home team (even though an average one). And so far so good for them... only 8 points in 7 matches, but 7 of them have been made as visitors. However, this is probably just a temporary form, as they don't have neither the squad, nor the quality to keep it going. And their only real success on the road can be considered the one at Sport Huancayo, due to the altitude, although Huancayo are nowhere near the team that took 3rd place last season. Other than that, the teams they played can't be considered good teams, and their second match at altitude was a fail, 1-2 against Cienciano. Leon started strong once again, and with so many problems with the top-guns (Alianza, Universitario, San Martin), they are gunning for the title. Lost one home match against Cristal (probably one of the best teams in the league currently), while they won their other 2 games, 1-0 with Inti Gas and 3-2 with Aurich, despite going into HT with a 0-2 deficit. Better squad for Leon, good form, also a good history against Boys (won all 3 matches played in Huanuco, goal difference 8-1), and a very hard to win in stadium. So my money goes on the home handicap. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Melgar

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

The Peruvian league is entering it's final stage, and with only 6 matches left, the big guns needto start performing if they are to achieve their objectives. Leon sufferend an important set-bac last week, when they lost 0-1 in Huancayo, but nothing is lost. Juan Aurich also lost, so the 5 points difference still remains, that's why Leon must win tonight, also to keep their grasp on the 3rd place that leads to the Libertadores play-off. Leon's home form so far this season puts them in a good position for this match, as they have won 9 of their 12 matches played in Huanuco, and while Melgar has also showed some nice performances as visitors, they shouldn't pose many problems here. They are still mathematically fighting to avoid relegation, but they seem to have a cosy advantage of 8 points, so they shouldn't worry too much. Moreover, they will play with 2 youngsters today, in order to achieve the minimum minutes for the U20 players, that the legue requires. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.72, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Sport Huancayo - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division

This will be a match played at high altitude, but also with high expectations, as for both team, this could be the match that makes or breaks their season. After a rough start, Leon de Huanuco recovered very well, and now are sitting on the 3rd place. And after Juan Aurich's defeat last night, Leon have a great chance to close the gap, and hope to play the second consecutive final, in their 2-years history in Primera. And it would be a remarcable achievement for them. So, with a win here, they would come to just 2 points behind Juan Aurich, while also pretty much securing their 3rd spot (that qualifies to Libertadores), as they will have7 points ahead of their followers. On the other hand, Huancayo is on a Sudamericana position, and would like to consolidate it, but also, with 3 points here, they would be just 1 point behind the Libertadores place that Leon is currently occupying. So, a must win for both. And these matches at altitude are usually quite entertaining, with lots of goals, because home teams are playing offensive, and with the visitors not affected by the air, they can respond accordingly. So, with Huancayo having the second best attack in the league, and Leon having the 5th one, but also with quite fragile defenses for both of them, I expect to see a nice match here, hopefully with lots of goals. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Leon de Huanuco - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

2010 finalists, Leon de Huanuco is showing slight signs of recovery, at least at home, despite the fact that they are still very far away from the form showed last year. But, with 2 consecutive wins at home, and Copa Libertadores way behind them, they can begin to hope again for a top-half finish, maybe even for a qualification for a continental cup, as the points differences aren't too high. Full team available for them, and I'm sure they are looking forward to add 3 more points to their tally, against the weakest team of the league. Alianza Atletico has only managed to win a single game as visitors, and have scored just one goal in 6 matches. And lately, they can't seem to win a match anywhere, since they haven't won for 5 rounds (since they released 5 players for beink drunk early in the morning in a club). And let's not forget about the altitude factor, as Alianza Atletico is from Sullana, a coastal city, and they usually find it hard when playing at high altitude (last year, they lost both matches in Huanuco, while this year they were trashed 4-0 by Cienciano). Was tempted to take the -0.75 handicap, but with my recent luck, it'll just end with a half won probably, so I just going for a simple home win, despite the low odds. GL!

Leon @ 1.60, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Oriente Petrolero - Leon de Huanuco

Copa Libertadores

I'll keep the stakes low again, as this bet comes after a last minute change of opinion. Had the 'no bet' idea since Monday, but recent news made slightly favor the guests. So, Oriente is last in the group, and with no possible chance to qualify to the next stage, as they are 7 points behind Gremio, with only 6 left in play. That means they will play this match for honor, in order not to finish the group with 0 points. But their task will be made even harder, due to some important absences. So far, regular goalkeeper Hugo Suarez and top scorer/best player Mauricio Saucedo are 100% out of this match, while there are fitness worries over striker Juan Carlos Arce, and if he won't be nurtured back to fitness in time, he would be the third very important missing of the team. Meanwhile, Leon still hopes for a qualification, although it will take a miracle for that to happen (they have to win both this and the match in Colombia, while Gremio has to fail in both matches). They have still done a decent campaign, in their first ever appearance in Copa Libertadores, but they want more. So a full team is expected tonight, and reports are giving an offensive formation, that should be able to put pressure on Oriente. The Bolivian defense is quite shaky, and they leave a lot of space when they attack. However, their offensive power isn't too good, and despite good opportunities, they fail to make them count, thing that has been seen in all their previous matches. And I can only imagine it will be twice as hard for them without Saucedo. GL!

Leon DNB @ 2.23, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Leon de Huanuco - Gremio Porto Alegre

Copa Libertadores

I was hoping for such odds, and luckily I got them. Waited a bit to see how they develop, and indeed they went a bit up, but then fell right back, and I don't think it should change too much. Leon is a pretty big underdog, and I agree with them not being favorites, as they aren't the same team as last year, and any Brazilian team is obviously superior to a Peruvian team. But, Leon improved quite a bit since the beginning of the season, especially defensively. Don't have many matches to show as examples, as in most of them they use a mixed/secondary squad, but when they do use their regulars, they play quite ok. They've beaten Oriente Petrolero and Universitario Lima, and also managed to keep the scoreline decent in Brazil, losing just 0-2, and both goals game after set pieces, the first goal after a free-kick, while the second one came from a penalty. But the Brazilians are known for getting quite lazy in away game, and for this match, Gremio will also have to face the altitude. They will travel to Huanuco 1 day before the game (will stay in Lima until then), and it seems like too little time to adjust to the air conditions. Another problem for the Brazilians should be the absence of striker Andre Lima, for which the coach will change to a more defensive formation, 4-5-1, which could favor Leon's defensive efforts. The Brazilians could very well be content with a draw in Peru, as they would keep the same difference between themselves and Leon, and with an easier schedule, they will be one step closer towards qualification. The odds are good enough to try a small bet here. GL!

Leon (+0.5 AH) @ 2.14, 3/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Juan Aurich - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

For a team that showed a lot of defensive and mental instability, against a team that is recovering well from a bad start, the give odds seem like a joke. Juan Aurich has been playing nicely, but always failed towards the end of the matches. After a solid 0-0 in the first round at Universitario, they had two apparently easy matches at home, but both of them were with a lot of emotions. In both matches they lead 2-0, and both times they saw themselves equalized in the closing moments. They did manage to get the winner against Union Comercio, but they weren't so lucky against CNI and the match ended 2-2. Meanwhile, Leon suffered a terrible start, losing to Inti Gas and Cobresol, before showing signs of recovery, winning 1-0 at Cesar Vallejo (with a mixed team) and beating Universitario, 2-0, after an impressive display. They still don't look like the 2010 Leon, but they are looking quite good, covering the field well, defending with stability, and knowing when and how to put pressure on the opponents. And the defensive lapses that Juan Aurich has showed, could be a good way for Leon to take advantage and try to score. They lost both their previous matches played in Chiclayo, but both with a minimum difference. So, the current handicap should be tried, as if both team will keep the current trend, Leon has some good chances not to lose. Reports are saying that they won't be resting anyone ahead of their Libertadores match, so there is no reason not to believe they won't prolong their winning run. GL!

Leon (+0.75 AH) @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Gremio Porto Alegre - Leon de Huanuco

Copa Libertadores

Joke odds on the Brazilians for this match, and at first sight I was tempted by the handicap on the Peruvians. But, I honestly don't expect Leon to score, as they have proved in all of their matches this year that they have troubles scoring. They played 8 games in 2011 (including friendlies), and they only managed to score 5 goals, never managing more than 1 in a single match, showing just how much they miss their players from 2010, especially their main attacking force, Rodas and Perea. However, defensively they seemed ok, both with reserves and with regulars, and this could also be an explanation for their lack of goals, the coach changing the style of play to a more defensive one, since they can't count on Rodas's skills up-front. And I'm expecting the same defensive approach tonight as well, as going to attack on Gremio's field is pretty much suicidal. The Brazilians are of course better, but not to be made 1.20 favorites. They had a lot of work to do with Oriente Petrolero in their first match, and the Bolivians could have entered with a 0-0 at HT, if it wasn't for a made-up penalty. They should score and win, of course, but they could have some problems in doing that. Oriente's defense was pretty lame, so they were sliced open a few times, while Leon looks much more stable. The under looks like the better choice here, because I don't see Leon scoring, and Gremio should win with a maximum of 3-0, although that's far-fetched... 1-0 or 2-0 look like the most probable scenarios. GL!

under 3.25 goals @ 1.81, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Oriente Petrolero

Copa Libertadores

When the odds first became available, I said I'd stay away from this match, but they just keep getting higher and higher, and I see no reason for that, as the opening odds were seeming quite fair. Yes, Leon aren't going through their best moment, and after last year's fantastic achievement (Final of the league) I was pretty sure they had no chance of repeating that performance. And after Rodas and Perea, their best players in 2010, left, things didn't go too well, and Leon lost all 3 of their matches (2 in the league, 1 in Libertadores). The new players didn't blend in yet, and even if they are not of the same quality as last year's players, they are still good enough to keep Leon at a decent level. Gonzalez-Vigil has the duty to make Perea forgotten, and today he will start as a regular. Overall, Leon isn't performing too bad, but they miss something... even against Cobresol, they attacked and put some pressure, but the goal never came. Oriente isn't a bad team either, as they showed last week, when they really put some pressure on Gremio in the start of the match, but slowly things turned around, and they lost 0-3 in Brazil. They are nothing special, and even though their attack can put some pressure, their defense is likely to neutralize and advantages, as they seem quite poor at defending. And they also have an awful record against Peruvian teams, losing 7 out of 8 matches, so I don't see why not to try Leon at the current odds. GL!

Leon (-0.75 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 1-0, HALF WON

Universidad San Martin - Leon de Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Final

After the first match ended, I clearly said to myself that the second match will be a no-bet. But due to some events that happened in the last few days, I changed my mind a bit. The most important thing is that Rodas's red card has been deemed illegal, so the small winger will play. And that is a huge boost for Leon, as Rodas is their best players, and 75% of the goals they have scored either came from him, either were scored by him. The only one that is still suspended is striker Calheira, but their main attacking force, Perea, is going to play. San Martin has started an earthquake after learning that Rodas can play, but they had no other option than accept it. So now I expect some extra motivation from their part, to prove they can win the title even with Rodas on the pitch. The suspended striker Arriola is an important miss, but they have a large number of offensive players, and Alemano, Garcia or Vitti can do the job for the Saints. And since the first match ended as a draw, this match is a must win for both teams (in case of a draw, a third game will take place), as none of them will want a decider, especially Huanuco, since they won't be able to choose the venue, so they surely won't be able to rely on the altitude advantage. I see a lot of goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Universidad San Martin

Peru Primera Division, Final

Odds are a bit lower than what I expected, but I'm going to trust Leon one more time this season. Without a doubt, these two teams are the best Peruvian teams of the season, thanks to some excellent coaching and some key players (Rodas and Perea for Leon, Alemanno, Vitti and Arriola for San Martin). Full squads are expected for both teams, so let's not sit on that for too much. For Leon, this can be a memorable moment, coming straight up from the second division and winning the title, so I'm sure they are going to give more than 100%, and they will receive great support from the entire city of Huanuco, which has started some sort of holiday, especially for this final. Then, we also have the altitude. San Martin showed great play this year, winning drastically even at a lot of meters above the sea level, but all those matches were against teams from the lower half of the league: Melgar, Cienciano and Huancayo. The only match at altitude that matters here is the one played in Huanuco, where Leon took a solid 4-2 win. Not expecting a similar scoreline today, as all that Leon needs is a win, and that is also why I'm avoiding the over bet. Leon showed great football throughout the year, and certainly earned my entire confidence, and I'm giving them another shot today. GL!

Leon Huanuco @ 2.07, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Sport Boys - Leon Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Last round also in Peru, and 90% of the teams are already thinking about the holidays or the next season. This, of course, isn't the case for Leon de Huanuco, who will play the final of the championship, but their heads surely aren't in this match. With just 4 days before the first leg of the championship final, Leon will be resting/saving all their regular players, in order to avoid injuries, fatigue and/or bookings. That is why only 13 players have made the trip to Callao, and most of them are youngsters. All the main players, and a few reserves, are still in Huanuco, preparing for the final. The youngsters will be relishing the opportunity to play a full match, and will probably try their best to impress the coach for next season, but their lack of experience, and the fact that they are playing together for the first time this season, should be some big disadvantages for them. Sport Boys are safe from relegation, so no worries for them, but it still looks as if they will be using their best players for this game, already expressing their wish to finish the season with a victory at home against one of the finalists. Odds aren't so good for a lowly team against a great Leon, but if the line-ups will be as expected, Sport Boys are almost sure to win. GL!

Sport Boys (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON