Sport Boys - FBC Melgar

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

The two finalists of the Peruvian Primera Division are pretty much settled, but there are still a lot to play for: qualification to an international cup is the main objective for several teams, with Melgar being one of them. They are currently sitting on a qualifying position, sitting on 5th place, but nothing has been settled there, as there are 9 teams separated by 9 points, so everything could easily change. Every point counts, especially those won away from home, so I'm expecting Melgar to go all-in, against an already relegated and demoralized Sport Boys team. A lot of nerves and low morale took over the home team, during the last couple of weeks, and without any objective left, they will only play for honor. Melgar, as I said, has everything to play for, and they should start strong, trying to take advantage of the bad atmosphere in Callao. The only thing that keeps me from betting on them is the fact that they are the worst traveling team in this group, with just 1 win and 7 draws in 19 matches. But they have greatly improved lately, with just 2 defeats in their last 10 games. The over looks good, especially due to the low line available, as I'm expecting a minimum of 2 goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST

Real Garcilaso - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

It should be getting more and more risky to bet on Garcilaso, as I'm very sure they won't keep their perfect home record throughout the season, and they are bound to fail eventually, but I also don't see that happening today. 11 games won at home from 11 played, with 21 goals scored and only 2 conceded... they should be going for the record here, and even though the high altitude from their home city of Cusco did a lot to help, we can't minimize their merits, so the 3rd place that they sit on currently is more than justified (after all, they only lost 4 matches from the 23 the played). Meanwhile, Sport Boys sits near the bottom of the table, and have lost 7 games as visitors, from 11 played. Only two of them were played at high altitude: a 2-1 victory of Huancayo (right at the beginning of the season, when Huancayo was still just a shadow of the last year), and a 0-2 loss at Leon. But Sport Boys, besides being traditionally poor travelers, are also extremely poor when it comes to playing at altitude. The handicap is high indeed, but with the recent odds movements, this bet is definitely worth taking. GL!

Garcilaso (-1.5 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Sporting Cristal - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

This seems to be by far the best bet of the round. Cristal comes after 2 consecutive defeats, away at Aurich and at Cobresol. This left them on the 3rd place, 7 points behind leaders Cesar Vallejo, so they need to get themselves together and start summing up some points. And they have the right team to do this, as I still consider them one of the main candidates to win the title, despite what seems to be a huge advantage for Vallejo. And it can't be contested that they are class better than a Sport Boys team who is in a deep institutional crisis, and also traditionally poor travelers, with an away record of 2-1-5 (compared to Cristal's home form of 5-3-0). When Cristal wins at home, they usually win it big, as in their last 3 home wins (from the last 4 matches), they scored 11 goals, and the match they failed to win was a 1-1 draw with Alianza Lima. Boys have only one win in their last 10 games, and it seems very unlikely that they can pull off a surprise here. Cristal also won the first match in Callao 5-0, so if they keep focus, they could very well repeat that performance. High stakes for this. GL!

Cristal (-1.25 AH) @ 1.89, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sport Boys are trying hard to prove that their stay in Primera Division hasn't been by accident, and they also are trying to lose their status as a typical home team (even though an average one). And so far so good for them... only 8 points in 7 matches, but 7 of them have been made as visitors. However, this is probably just a temporary form, as they don't have neither the squad, nor the quality to keep it going. And their only real success on the road can be considered the one at Sport Huancayo, due to the altitude, although Huancayo are nowhere near the team that took 3rd place last season. Other than that, the teams they played can't be considered good teams, and their second match at altitude was a fail, 1-2 against Cienciano. Leon started strong once again, and with so many problems with the top-guns (Alianza, Universitario, San Martin), they are gunning for the title. Lost one home match against Cristal (probably one of the best teams in the league currently), while they won their other 2 games, 1-0 with Inti Gas and 3-2 with Aurich, despite going into HT with a 0-2 deficit. Better squad for Leon, good form, also a good history against Boys (won all 3 matches played in Huanuco, goal difference 8-1), and a very hard to win in stadium. So my money goes on the home handicap. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Sport Huancayo - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Last 4 rounds in the Peruvian championship, and things are far from being settled, as we have 3 teams fighting to reach the finals, 4 teams for the last Libertadores spot, and another 4 teams hoping for a Sudamericana place. First up, we have Sport Huancayo, who could theoretically still take the 2nd place. But on a more realistic note, their objective right now is to reach the 3rd place, that will take them straight to the Copa Libertadores, from which they are 1 point behind. So winning their next match is a must, if they want to keep fighting all the way to the wire. No injuries or suspensions for them, so their best line-up is expected, including their in-form offensive players: Avila and Sotil. Sport Boys can pretty much relax for the remaining rounds. They are 6 points ahead of the relegation zone, and it is highly unlikely that Alianza Atletico will win all their 3 matches in order to put pressure on them. So, being 99% safe, and with slim chances to reach Copa Sudamericana, despite being just 4 points behind the last qualifier spot, they are playing for nothing here. With a not so great away record, and with a high altitude in Huancayo, Boys shouldn't pose many problems here. GL!

Huancayo (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Sporting Cristal - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Sporting Cristal has been in awful form recently, having not won in the last 10 matches, and are coming into this derby in a not so good mood. So then, why to bet on them? First of all, I still give them an advantage in quality, despite being near the bottom of the table, 3 points behind Boys. They have some good players, and with a little bit of work, they could very well climb some places in the standings. Then, we have their form. It's true that their stats are very grim, but in Peru, very few teams keep a winless run for too long, and Cristal's 10 matches run is bound to end sooner or later, and if not against Boys (who are usually very poor travelers - only 2 wins on the road last season), then I don't know against whom. And Cristal will also be able to count on several players that haven't been used last round. They will have a renewed midfield line, as they welcome back Advincula and Lobaton from the national team, along with new signings Espinoza and Ross. Offensive-wise, Cristal should also look better, as they have 3 good forwards ready to jump in: new signings Alva and Gonzalez-Vigil, as well as last season's top-scorer Ximenez. All in all, Cristal have the quality to end their bad run, and the return of the above-mentioned players should provide them with a boost. GL!

Cristal (-0.5 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Alianza Atletico - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Unless you are one of the big teams, winning (or even playing) in Sullana is a very tough job. The city is located in the far west of the country, and is pretty far from any other city hosting a Primera Division team. And the climate is very different... Sport Boys is from Callao, a coastal city, with a mild oceanic climate, while Sullana has a tropical climate, with the temperature going easy over 30 degrees C. This translates in a bigger energy consumption, dehydration and exhaustion, and it more damaging to the visitors, as the impact with this climate can be harsh. Add to this the fact that the pitch on the Campeones del 36 stadium is artificial, so that makes it even tougher. About the squads, Alianza kept the same base of players as last year, without making any big signings, and this could be a good thing for them, as they opted for continuity. Meanwhile, Sport Boys did manage to get a few players, most notably Marko Ciurlizza (who will play the first match in 10 months). But, Sport Boys are known as being very poor travelers, winning just 2 matches last season away from home, and if we look to their head-to-head with Alianza, they are by no means favorites here: 13 out of 20 won by Alianza, along another 5 draws. Last time Boys won was in 2005, and they haven't scored a single goal in their last 4 games. GL!

Alianza (-0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 3/10

Result 1-2, LOST

Sport Boys - Leon Huanuco

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Last round also in Peru, and 90% of the teams are already thinking about the holidays or the next season. This, of course, isn't the case for Leon de Huanuco, who will play the final of the championship, but their heads surely aren't in this match. With just 4 days before the first leg of the championship final, Leon will be resting/saving all their regular players, in order to avoid injuries, fatigue and/or bookings. That is why only 13 players have made the trip to Callao, and most of them are youngsters. All the main players, and a few reserves, are still in Huanuco, preparing for the final. The youngsters will be relishing the opportunity to play a full match, and will probably try their best to impress the coach for next season, but their lack of experience, and the fact that they are playing together for the first time this season, should be some big disadvantages for them. Sport Boys are safe from relegation, so no worries for them, but it still looks as if they will be using their best players for this game, already expressing their wish to finish the season with a victory at home against one of the finalists. Odds aren't so good for a lowly team against a great Leon, but if the line-ups will be as expected, Sport Boys are almost sure to win. GL!

Sport Boys (-0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Sport Boys - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Sport Boys lost some easy points last round, at home against Alianza Atletico, conceding the equalizer in the last seconds of play, the last action. So now they need to get them back, and end their relegation issues once and for all. Three points today and they will at least keep the 7 points difference ahead of Cienciano, and with only 3 rounds remaining after this weekend, they will be as good as saved. Last match wasn't a bad one at all for them, as besides those 2 goals scored they also missed a couple of easy chances, and I'm expecting some better concentration and composure in front of the goal today. The coach already said this match has to be won, practiced some finishing moves in training and tried to get his players in focus. Huancayo is fighting for nothing, despite still having some mathematical chances of reaching a place for next year's Copa Sudamericana... their realistic chances are below 1%. So, an unmotivated team, with the dreadful away form, where they only managed to win a single game, should be a sure victim here against a pretty much equal team, that is fighting to avoid relegation. Head-to-head this season is 2-1 for Boys, winning one in Huancayo's altitude, and recording another easy 3-1 home win. I'm expecting something similar today. GL!

Sport Boys (-0.75 AH) @ 1.75, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Sport Boys - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Just 5 more rounds before this league reaches it's final, and usually, this is the time when surprises start appearing. So let's try to take advantage by some of the odds the bookies wrongly set (at least in my opinion). Sport Boys are heavy favorites, and in some bookies there has been a massive odds fall on them (1.78 to 1.62). But the interesting fact here is that in the last 3 years, they have never won against Alianza Atletico, from 11 matches, and they have been set as huge favorites just once (first match in 2008)... otherwise, odds were usually around 2, so this give us an automatic value on Alianza. Especially since the visitors are the team in need. They are just 1 point ahead of the relegation area, and are in desperate need of points. Meanwhile, Sport Boys aren't assured of avoiding relegation, but they have a much easier task, as they are 7 points ahead of Cienciano, who play at Leon de Huanuco, so it's not likely they will cut the lead. And Boys, in case of things heating up, can easily solve their last 2 home matches, against an unmotivated Sport Huancayo, and in the last round, against a Leon side that should be qualified to the final and should also rest their regulars. Both teams are in good form (15 points in the last 10 matches for each of them), and with no important absences, so I'm going with the team that has the head-to-head advantage, and also has more need for points. GL!

Alianza Atletico (+0.5 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Cienciano - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Lately, I have noticed some improvements in Cienciano. 2 weeks ago they have finally won a match after several winless rounds, when they beat Juan Aurich at home by 3-0, and their last 2 defeats were quite at the limit, giving both Alianza Atletico and Melgar a good fight (and keep in mind the fact that they were in strike, and also that the matches were played with just 2 days of rest, in opposite places of the country). They have also received payment for a month (still 3 left to be payed), so things are looking slightly better now, and they are focused on avoiding the drop. Sport Boys will miss 2 important pieces, some of their most important players: midfielder Michael Guevara and defender/captain Mario Gomez. So, in order to exploit this key absences, coach Ibarra will prepare an offensive line-up, trying to suffocate Boys from the start (and the altitude should also help them here, as Sport Boys are from port-city Callao). One more statistical thing worth mentioning is that since 2000, Sport Boys have played in Cuzco 19 times, and have never won, barely managing 4 draws, while most of those 15 loses have been quite drastic. Cienciano has the knife near their bones, so it's now or never for them, and it would be a shame to see them relegate. GL!

Cienciano (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I know the odds are piss-poor for this one, but I see it as close to a banker as it can get, so I'll gladly take for medium-high stakes. These two teams have been totally opposed throughout the season: Leon have been surprisingly fighting for the title, and at the moment they lead group B by 5 points, and with a win they could go 8 points clear (because Cesar Vallejo plays in Arequipa, and there is a good chance they will lose some points there). No important injuries for Leon... Rodas, Calheira and Perea will all start, they are the awesome offensive power of Leon, and they will settle the match between them. Sport Boys have indeed been surprising lately, as they have 3 wins on the run, and ever since Liguilla started they are the most in-form team. But their wins came against lowly teams, the only big one they've defeated being Cesar Vallejo, but that was in Callao, and that's another story. Away from home, Sport Boys have only one win, and around 3 goals conceded per match. Today they will miss forwards Victor Rossel, so it will be a blow for their offensive powers. All in all, I just can't see Leon losing points here, so even if the odds are pretty much crap, this bet is a solid one. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.61, 5/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Juan Aurich - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

This one looks like a no-brainer, but although the home win shouldn’t be in doubt, the handicap should be 50-50, due to some doubtful players for Juan Aurich. It is said that Manco and Tejada will be rested, as they didn’t have a rest last week, being taken with their respective national teams, but I have some doubts about this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ll see them on the pitch tonight (at least one of them).  Another report that I don’t quite believe give Zuniga as a lone striker, but from a formation with 3 strikers to only 1 there is a long road, and that’s not the way Juan Aurich does it, and I’m expecting Ciciliano to start. Anyway, even without them, Zuniga, Ascoy and Chiroque should be enough to break Sport Boys defense.

Sport Boys are facing relegation, and although looking at their recent results might give you the impression that they are improving (as they lose with smaller margins than before), they are actually not, and their game still suck (last match lost 1-2 with Universitario, but the score could have easily been bigger). They are awfully poor in away games, not managing to win a single game so far, and their defense lack any type of quality, receiving a monster number of 38 goals in 15 matches. Juan Aurich is rarely mild and merciful at home, and few teams come out with points. The bet seems good, because as I said, home win shouldn’t be in discussion, and in case of just a one-goal win, half the stake comes back. GL!

Juan Aurich (-1.25 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10 

Result: 4-1, WON