Alianza Atletico - Universitario

Peru Primera Division

Odds dropped quite a bit, so there isn't the value that was at the hour of the odds opening, but I like this bet even at this price. Universitario also has to play in Copa Sudamericana three days later, so it really comes as a surprise that they were scheduled to play their league game on Monday. And since they decided to focus their efforts on the Copa, they will rest several key players for this match, including: defender Galliquio, midfielder Rainer Torres, or playmaker Vitti. Therefore, we'll have an even weaker Universitario team, than what we are used to normally, and even so, their away record is nothing to be proud about for a team of their caliber: without a win playing as visitors this season, and with just 1 goal scored. And I'm sure that with a mixed team, and playing on an artificial pitch, they won't have it easy now. Alianza should be giving their all tonight, as it is one of their last chances to remain in the top division next season. Currently on the last place, 3 points against Las Cremas would be like an oxygen mask for them, as they would tie Cesar Vallejo on points, and keep their hopes alive for the last 6 rounds of the season. GL!

Alianza Atletico DNB @ 1.70, 3/10

Result: 0-0, VOID

Leon de Huanuco - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

2010 finalists, Leon de Huanuco is showing slight signs of recovery, at least at home, despite the fact that they are still very far away from the form showed last year. But, with 2 consecutive wins at home, and Copa Libertadores way behind them, they can begin to hope again for a top-half finish, maybe even for a qualification for a continental cup, as the points differences aren't too high. Full team available for them, and I'm sure they are looking forward to add 3 more points to their tally, against the weakest team of the league. Alianza Atletico has only managed to win a single game as visitors, and have scored just one goal in 6 matches. And lately, they can't seem to win a match anywhere, since they haven't won for 5 rounds (since they released 5 players for beink drunk early in the morning in a club). And let's not forget about the altitude factor, as Alianza Atletico is from Sullana, a coastal city, and they usually find it hard when playing at high altitude (last year, they lost both matches in Huanuco, while this year they were trashed 4-0 by Cienciano). Was tempted to take the -0.75 handicap, but with my recent luck, it'll just end with a half won probably, so I just going for a simple home win, despite the low odds. GL!

Leon @ 1.60, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

Alianza Atletico - Sport Boys

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

Unless you are one of the big teams, winning (or even playing) in Sullana is a very tough job. The city is located in the far west of the country, and is pretty far from any other city hosting a Primera Division team. And the climate is very different... Sport Boys is from Callao, a coastal city, with a mild oceanic climate, while Sullana has a tropical climate, with the temperature going easy over 30 degrees C. This translates in a bigger energy consumption, dehydration and exhaustion, and it more damaging to the visitors, as the impact with this climate can be harsh. Add to this the fact that the pitch on the Campeones del 36 stadium is artificial, so that makes it even tougher. About the squads, Alianza kept the same base of players as last year, without making any big signings, and this could be a good thing for them, as they opted for continuity. Meanwhile, Sport Boys did manage to get a few players, most notably Marko Ciurlizza (who will play the first match in 10 months). But, Sport Boys are known as being very poor travelers, winning just 2 matches last season away from home, and if we look to their head-to-head with Alianza, they are by no means favorites here: 13 out of 20 won by Alianza, along another 5 draws. Last time Boys won was in 2005, and they haven't scored a single goal in their last 4 games. GL!

Alianza (-0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 3/10

Result 1-2, LOST

Alianza Lima - Union Comercio

Peru Primera Division, Descentralizado

I'm going to trust Alianza once again, and I hope I won't get to regret it once again. They went from disappointment to disappointment in the Libertadores play-off, and nothing went their way, losing both matches against Jaguares of Mexico with 0-2. Things have of course flared, and the supporters and directors are demanding a faultless performance in Primera Division, especially now that they can focus fully on this competition. And they start their campaign against Union Comercio, a relatively unknown team, newly promoted, that don't look like much. Without any big names and without making a big fuss on the transfer market, Union Comercio looks like they will have a mountain to climb in order to remain in the division in 2012 as well. They don't seem to nave neither the experience, nor the quality to be able to resist in front of Alianza. Los Intimos will be making a few changes, especially in attack, in order to wake the team up from the lethargy that settled in the encounters with Jaguares, and with all the players vowing to clean the shame from Libertadores, I think we can count on a determined performance from Alianza, from start to finish. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.5 AH) @ 1.94, 3/10

Result: 4-1, WON

Alianza Atletico - Sport Huancayo

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Time to draw the line for Alianza Atletico. Just two games remaining, and with only 2 points separating them from Cienciano, a win today is a must, no matter what their rivals do. All the hopes are based on a win today, as if Cienciano loses or draws, Alianza is saved. Otherwise, the final showdown  will take place next week, in Cusco, and I'm sure everyone at Alianza would like to avoid having to play a decisive game in the heights of Cusco. Everybody says this is a final, the most important match of the season, and all the players are 100% focused, wanting to win today, trying to prolonge their recent good form (have only lost 2 matches from the last 10). Sport Huancayo is without any worries, so I have my doubts regarding their committement and focus. They allowed Cienciano to pull level last week, so their concentration is already fading. So far, they have lost every time they visited Sullana, and I don't think that will change now, when the players are thinking more about the holiday than about their remaining matches. GL!

Alianza Atletico (-0.75 AH) @ 1.74, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Alianza Atletico - Juan Aurich

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Pretty bad day, regarding the available matches, as I can't say I'm crazy about any of them. I'll try to make the most of what I get, though. In recent matches, we have seen a lot of improvements from Alianza Atletico's behalf, and despite managing to lose just two matches in the last 10, they still haven't managed to get out of the relegation zone, and it looks like the fight will go down until the last round, in a final showdown with Cienciano in Cusco. However, if they manage to win today, they could have the higher ground in the supposed final, or they could even be safe before that, as next week they host Huancayo, while Cienciano has a pretty much impossible mission at Juan Aurich. So plenty to play for here, players and staff are characterizing the game as a final, so expect 100% commitment from the entire squad. Juan Aurich has nothing to play for, despite still having some mathematical chances to reach the final, but that is almost impossible, as Leon needs just one point to seal the qualification. And with the qualification for Sudamericana already in their pockets, there won't be any need for the players to bruise their knees. Juan Aurich won't have it easy here, as they never do, failing to win in all their visits to Sullana so far, in 5 tries. The funny thing is that neither Alianza won a single match when hosting Juan Aurich. However, they have the knife at the bone now, and that 3-1 win for them in Chiclayo a month ago is sure to give them some hopes, and I'm expecting them to perform at 200% of what they are capable. GL!

Alianza Atletico (-0.5 AH) @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Leon de Huanuco - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

I have decided previously not to play on Leon anymore, when they are at home, due to the huge handicap lines and the laughable odds. But today something is different, and I can't explain why the line is just at -1, and with average odds around 1.90. Today's opponents, Alianza Atletico, are indeed in desperate need of points, but so was Cienciano last match, and Leon gave them no gifts, despite the match finishing 0-0. Leon dominated the entire match, put constant pressure on their defense, and missed some huge opportunities. But I don't think they will do that 2 times in a row, and besides, while Cienciano wasn't affected by the high altitude of Huanuco, Alianza's player should feel it fully. Leon will miss two players due to suspensions, but their key players are all fit and ready to play (here I am talking about the guys who have a huge merit for Leon's position: Rodas and Perea). And even with a loss today, corroborated with a Cienciano win, Alianza shouldn't despair (despite dropping to a place that relegates), because they should get more if they focus on their last 3 games (two of them consecutive at home against unmotivated Juan Aurich and Sport Huancayo, and the decider from Cienciano). Leon seals their play-off place if they win today, or if Cesar Vallejo loses, so I'm sure they'll go for the win. Small-medium stakes though, as Cesar Vallejo finishes the match before they start, and if they lose Leon could celebrate a bit too much. GL!

Leon (-1 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Sport Boys - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Just 5 more rounds before this league reaches it's final, and usually, this is the time when surprises start appearing. So let's try to take advantage by some of the odds the bookies wrongly set (at least in my opinion). Sport Boys are heavy favorites, and in some bookies there has been a massive odds fall on them (1.78 to 1.62). But the interesting fact here is that in the last 3 years, they have never won against Alianza Atletico, from 11 matches, and they have been set as huge favorites just once (first match in 2008)... otherwise, odds were usually around 2, so this give us an automatic value on Alianza. Especially since the visitors are the team in need. They are just 1 point ahead of the relegation area, and are in desperate need of points. Meanwhile, Sport Boys aren't assured of avoiding relegation, but they have a much easier task, as they are 7 points ahead of Cienciano, who play at Leon de Huanuco, so it's not likely they will cut the lead. And Boys, in case of things heating up, can easily solve their last 2 home matches, against an unmotivated Sport Huancayo, and in the last round, against a Leon side that should be qualified to the final and should also rest their regulars. Both teams are in good form (15 points in the last 10 matches for each of them), and with no important absences, so I'm going with the team that has the head-to-head advantage, and also has more need for points. GL!

Alianza Atletico (+0.5 AH) @ 2.12, 3/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Sport Huancayo - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Both teams are coming into this match in good form, and both are still theoretically fighting for their objectives. Huancayo are dreaming of qualifying to Copa Sudamericana once again, but with a win today they will still be 10 points behind Juan Aurich, so it's a bit of a stretch. That's why I expect them to start the match more relaxed, but also determined to keep their 'solid home team' status. Their morale should also be renewed after their solid 3-0 win away at Cienciano last week, and I expect some action from Avila and Mostto, but especially from winger Salas, who managed to get a hattrick last week. Alianza are the surprise package in the last few rounds, snatching 3 wins on a run, and two of them against high-profile opposition: a 2-1 at home versus Leon de Huanuco, and a surprising 3-1 at Juan Aurich. So morale should also be sky high for them, but even with such a good run, they need more, as they are still in the relegation area, but with 3 points here they will climb out. So a victory is a necessity for them, but it will be hard for them at high altitude. But, they have proven they can surprise even bigger teams, and with their game going well, I expect them to battle hard. The over looks good, as I expect both teams to score, and matches between them usually go with high scores. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.81, 3/10

Result: 5-0, WON

FBC Melgar - Alianza Atletico

Peru Primera Division, Liguilla B

Melgar seems to be safe in the general standings, and only a disaster could see them mixed in the relegation battle. And with a win today, they will be 99% sure of staying in the Primera Division in 2011 as well. And a victory here is more than possible. They seem to have found some pace, and their performances lately have been improving, being on a run of 3 consecutive matches without losing, following a spectacular 3-3 draw at home with Sport Boys and two big surprises, as they won away at leaders Universidad San Martin and at the home fortress of Cienciano. Meanwhile, Alianza Atletico doesn't seem to be improving at all, and their last place in the standings is more than deserved, as they are playing awful in almost every game. Especially in away games, they are even poorer, as they haven't managed to win a single match, while receiving 31 goals in 15 matches, and their away draws came from matches against equally poor teams. Melgar should also have an ally in the altitude, and Alianza are going to have to suffer even more. All in all, I expect Melgar to continue their domination against a team which they have already beaten twice this season. GL!

Melgar (-1.25 AH) @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 3-3, LOST

Peru Primera Division - Last round of Descentralizado

I will try to write a few short opinions on most of the matches for this last round, at least for those matches that count. Here we go:

Alianza Lima - Chalaco
Alianza's only shot in this match is to go from the start to attack, score a few, and than hope that Leon doesn't win. Of course, they could take the second place even if both win, but it's highly unrealistic to think Alianza will win 5-0, while Leon only 1-0. So, chances are slim for Alianza to avoid San Martin's group, as even if they tank this match, there is a possibility that Cesar Vallejo won't win, so they will only lose contact with the leaders even more. All the players and the staff are saying they want to make a surprise, and to trash Chalaco, and I'm sure they will be really fired up for this game, especially since Chalaco doesn't have a very stable defense, and their record away from home isn't very encouraging. Also, coach Valencia left the team 3 days ago, leaving them in a rather poor and insecure state. The probable line-up will include the best they have, including some changes to give more speed to attack, and to force a few early goals. Moreover, there are some rumors that the referees will give Leon a tough time, so I'm sure there would be even more motivation for Alianza (not very trustworthy info, but you never know in Peru). I don't see Chalaco resisting too much, and I see an easy win for Alianza, with a few goals advantage. GL!

Alianza Lima (-1.25 AH) @ 1.89, Sbobet, 5/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Leon Huanuco - Sport Huancayo
Last week, this match seemed like the banker of the century, and it still does, as I just can't imagine Leon not winning it here. But with the recent rumors that the referee could be a pain for the Huanuquenos, and with Sport Hunacayo's financial motivation from Alianza (although the president stated he won't accept any money from Alianza, and considered the move as unethical), I'm starting to have some worries about the handicap, as even a win with a one goal difference, 99% guarantees them the second spot. So, I'm going for the over again. Huancayo is used to playing at high altitude, so they shouldn't suffer in Huanuco like other teams do. And if they really believe what they say, they should still be hoping/fighting for an Internationl competition, and any point is welcome. An early goal from them would certainly help things with the over, but if they don't, I'm counting on Leon to do the job. They aren't fighting for the title just because they are at high altitude; they also have a great team, with some very good players, and knowing their style of play, they won't just sit back and defend an eventual 1-0 lead. GL!

over 2.5 @ 1.87, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 5-2, WON

Universidad San Martin - FBC Melgar
Little to say here. USM is with no doubt the best team in the league, already assured their ticket for Copa Libertadores, will probably start the Liguilla with an advantage of 9 points ahead of the second placed team, and could also receive 1 or 2 more points from their reserve team, which means they are 99% certain of playing the final of the league. Also, they have Copa Sudamericana duties, so they can take on the league matches with ease, and still make it comfortably to the final. Melgar is poor on the road, in a very bad form, so they shouldn't expect too much from this match. Normally, this should be an easy victory for USM, and I'm sure it will be, but for the handicap... I don't really know. They could just play for fun, make a nice show, etc, and no one will get upset if they just win 1-0 or 2-1. Should be a good combo material, but for the handicap will wait for something live, maybe the lines will go lower. GL!

Alianza Atletico - Universidad Cesar Vallejo
I'm skipping this one, as UCV is in a very tough position. They obviously want the 4th position, but are in the worst possible place to do it. Although they are 4th at the moment, things could change in just a few minutes, and here we have some different scenarios: if they win and Alianza loses (and it's not out of the question, if Leon and UCV both lead 3-0 after 20 minutes, Alianza could tank it), they move to 3rd place, which is bad. If they lose, and Universitario wins, they'll be on 5th place, which is even worse. This scenarios should be exploited in live-betting, depending on the score, and if the live-markets are available.

Cienciano - Sporting Cristal
I have a lot of respect for this team, as with such problems, I doubt many teams or players could have coped better with it. Their problems are well known: no money, debts, several players leaving, etc etc. But even so, when Ibarra took the helm at the team, they have been performing very well. I can remind about the 2 home wins against CNI and Inti Gas, and despite losing their last 2 away games, they did a very good job at Alianza Lima, showing that the players that stayed at the club are playing with their hearts. Now, things are starting to look better and better, as things settled down a bit, and it looks like the players will be payed soon. One more reason to give their best in this match, where altitude should benefit them (despite the problems, they are still 8-4-1 at home), and a win today could take them out of the hot zone for the Liguilla. Sporting Cristal lost pretty much all hope to challenge for the title, and can only hope for a Libertadores ticket, but even that could be very tough with their irregular recent form. They haven't won in Cuzco since 2003, and I don't see them too well today either. GL!

Cienciano @ 2.20, Sbobet, 4/10

Result: 3-3, LOST