Nacional - Vasco

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

The qualification issue has already been dealt with in this group, with Vasco and Libertad going to the next stage, while Nacional and Alianza will remain at home once the group stage finishes. So, for Gallardo's boys this match is of no importance, as he aims to save the season in the local league, where he sits on 5th place, 5 points behind leaders Liverpool. The next few rounds will provide Nacional with a good schedule, where they should make the maximum number of points, so in order to keep his players fit and to avoid injuries, Gallardo will rest most regulars for today's match, and will face the Brazilians with a reserve team. So that means that we won't be seeing too much of players like Scotti, Recoba, Damonte, Rolin, Viudez, Porta or Medina. Vasco also comes in this match without pressure, but I'm sure they will like to end this group on the top spot, and for that they will need to win. They will be without Juninho and Felipe, but other than that there aren't many surprises announced, with Alecsandro expected to play from the start. Very good odds for this match, where despite the lack of motivation, there should be a big enough quality gap. GL!

Vasco DNB @ 2.03, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON

Alianza Lima - Vasco da Gama

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Vasco da Gama comes into this match as great favorites, but I don't expect things to be so easy for them. They've only managed to beat the handicap in one game, two weeks ago at home against Libertad. Otherwise, they were a team of ups and downs, losing at home to Nacional, struggling to beat Alianza at home (3-2, despite having an extra man for the entire second half - also missed 2 penalties) and drawing 1-1 in Paraguay. Now, with two away games left, they need all the points from this match, otherwise they could be left out of the competition. Therefore, I expect them to attack and impose the game, like in the first leg, especially since Alianza's defense isn't anything special, and Souza, Nilton and Alecsandro should find plenty of spaces. For the Peruvians this is also a capital match, and only if they win they can still hope to achieve something in this group. They are motivated, the coach having rested several of his key players during their weekend match, so I also expect them to go out looking for the win. Vasco's defense isn't very solid either, so Fernandez and Arroe could also have some chances. The bottom line here is that neither team affords to lose, so they will most likely go for the win. Two goals is the minimum I expect, but we should see plenty more. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.76, 4/10

Result: 1-2, WON

Vasco - Libertad

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Vasco has been a real rollercoaster so far: they lost at home to Nacional, they've let a 1-0 lead slip through their fingers in Paraguay, and they beat Alianza 3-2, after a very entertaining match in which they also missed 2 penalties. It is clear that quality wise they are the best team in the group, so their inability to top the group must be psychical. Today, however, the players really seem to be fired up, and will try a repeat of their performance from Paraguay, which normally should translate in a home win tonight. However, Libertad is not an easy team to beat, and they aren't the leaders for nothing. A point for them would be great, and would pretty much assure them of the top spot, but I don't think they'll focus 100% on defense. The Brazilian defense makes a lot of mistakes, so there will be a lot of spaces for Libertad to exploit, especially since I'm expecting Vasco to go out guns blazing, searching for the goal since the beginning. Very nice odds for the over, which has serious chances of delivering. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.79, 5/10

Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST

U de Chile - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-final

I was on the over in the first leg too, and even though the match ended as 1-1, the bet was right, as the flow was very good, and there were a lot of missed goal-chances. So I'm going to repeat that bet. Vasco needs to attack from the start, in order to take back the away goal that U de Chile got in the first game. The Brazilians are going for this match full strength, with all their players, showing that they really want this title. And with their attack working great most of the times, I'm confident they will get at least a goal. From there, it will all be up to U de Chile to decide the game. They have been compared to Barcelona, and indeed, they're style of play is very good. Always going for goals, always looking to get the ball forward... so don't expect them to sit back and wait, despite the slight advantage they have due to their away goal. And also, Vasco's defensive line is far from being solid, so a couple of fast and well placed balls will really prove troublesome. I'm expecting a very entertaining match, and this time I think we'll see goals, as revenge for the missed chances from last weeks. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Vasco da Gama - U de Chile

Copa Sudamericana, Semi-finals

Probably the best, and the most offensive teams in the competition will face each other in Brazil, in what promises to be a cracking match. Vasco's coach Borges used reserve teams in the first legs so far, but those matches were played away from home. Not this time though, and Borges will send a full strength team, in order to try and clinch the qualification, so maybe he could rest a few players in the second leg. Diego Souza will miss the match for the Brazilians, but they have plenty of fire-power in their team, so I doubt that his absence should be an issue. Meanwhile, U de Chile is probably playing the best football in this edition of Copa Sudamericana, and many have compared their play to Barcelona. 14 goals scored, in 8 matches looks pretty nice, and gives us hopes for a goal-fest for this match, especially if we pair those numbers with Vasco's 17 goals scored in 6 games. The Chileans have rested their key players during the weekend, so they should all be fit, and I'm counting on their usual strategy of attacking, and trying to out-score their oponents. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Vasco da Gama - Universitario

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

Lost a bit of value for this bet, but I decided it's better to wait until the mast minute for the latest news. And apparently that was a good thing, as today I just found out that Vasco's coach has decided to use his best players, unlike a few days ago, when there were speculations that he'll use a reserve team again. But no, he wants both the Brasileiro and the Sudamericana, and it's expected that we'll see the same team that played against Santos in the weekend. Juninho, Diego Souza and other top players are therefore expected to start, and I'm counting on Vasco to start pressing early on, as they have a 2-goal deficit to overturn, and the extra-time surely doesn't feature in their plans, due to their packed schedule. Universitario will also use their best squad, after resting a few key players during the weekend, and although they'll probably sit back and try to defend, they can create some real havoc on the counters. Fano and Ruidiaz are very fast strikers, and they had a bit of fun with the Brazilian defense in the first leg. Surely it won't be that easy tonight, but they have good chances to score (in the previous round, Vasco won 8-3 with Aurora, with the Bolivians scoring 2 goals while being a man down), and we should be seeing at least 3 goals here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 5-2, WON

Universitario - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana, Quarter-finals

With only 6 rounds remaining in the Brasileiro championship, Vasco is still hanging on to their top spot. But after their last 0-0 draw, Corinthians tied them on points, with Botafogo also lurking close by, so obviously, the focus for everyone at the team goes to the local league. That is why they have decided to send only 3 of their regulars to play in tonight's match: goalkeeper Prass, defender Conserva and midfielder Diego Souza. All the others are left in Brazil, including star player Juninho Pernambucano, so the rest of the places on the pitch will be taken by reserves and maybe even a few youngsters. Universitario has ended it's national campaign, as it doesn't look likely they will score other points in the remaining rounds, due to some debts they have with the Players' Syndicate. All the players are well rested, as the weekend match from Cuzco was played by the reserves/youngsters, so they should be well prepared for the Brazilians. Universitario put in some good performances to knock-out Godoy Cruz in the previous round, and they should again have the edge here, against a second-string Brazilian team, that is also probably thinking more about their weekend clash with Santos. GL!

Universitario DNB @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Aurora - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana

This bet comes a little late, as the odds dropped pretty heavily, and most of the value is gone, but I still think it's goon enough to try it, for some lower stakes, of course. Vasco's first priority is to win the Brazilian championship, and all their focus will go in that direction. Everything else, including this Copa Sudamericana, is a secondary objective. That is why they have sent a minimal squad to Bolivia (just 15 players), with the players being mostly reserves and a couple of youngsters. The altitude should also affect them, as Brazilians and Argentinians are the teams that are most affected, since they never play at heights in the local league. Aurora seems to be in very good form, as they have 4 consecutive wins at home, 3 in the league, plus a 5-2 whooping of Nacional Asuncion (another team that has difficulties at high altitude) in the previous round of Sudamericana. Aurora also had the weekend off, so the players' fitness should be ok, and with the help provided by the altitude in Cochabamba, they shouldn't lose this game against the fringe players of Vasco. GL!

Aurora DNB @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON