Deportivo Quito - Aurora

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Deportivo Quito are still searching for their lost form, but the quality gap should be just too big to miss a bet here. Even though they can't win matches in their home league, at least they have a very solid defense, receiving only 4 goals in 7 games, despite sitting on the last place in the table. They did win both matches played in the first round of Copa Sudamericana, scoring 4 goals against Leon de Huanuco, a team that I rate better than Aurora. And in order to improve their offense, coach Insua is preparing 3 forwards for this game, that should give them some superiority when they get the ball in the opposition's quarter. And if they can play the same way as they did against Leon, this match should be just a formality. Aurora got to this stage after knocking out a poor Cerro Largo. Nothing special happened in that leg... Aurora capitalized on their altitude advantage, and Cerro was just too poor to turn around the score in the second leg. For today's match, they also have a lot of squad problems, with 7 players unavailable (4 of them made the trip to Ecuador, but they have small chances of playing). And in the league they aren't going any better either, losing the last 4 consecutive games, with a goal difference of 0-10!!! The odds also moved up quite nicely, so this should be a good bet.

Deportivo (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10
Result: 2-1, HALF-LOST

Aurora - Cerro Largo

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Odds dropped a lot for this bet, but it's still worth taking, as I can't see anything past a home win here. Cerro Largo had solid performances in the Uruguayan league, and that's why they surprisingly took a Sudamericana spot, but those performances should be long gone by now. They have lost a lot of important players, pretty much the core of the team, as 5 key players have left the team. Their replacements are still a big unknown, but I'm confident they won't live up to the expectations, and they still need a lot of time to blend in. Another huge factor here is the altitude, as Aurora plays at over 2700 meters above the sea level. None of the players from Cerro Largo's team has ever played at high altitude, so they don't have first hand experience of it's effects. And this could have a huge impact on the game, especially since Cerro Largo will only arrive at the stadium a few hours before kick-off. Aurora is usually strong at home even against teams that know how to handle the altitude, so I can't really see them not winning this game. GL!

Aurora (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 5/10

Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

Aurora - Vasco da Gama

Copa Sudamericana

This bet comes a little late, as the odds dropped pretty heavily, and most of the value is gone, but I still think it's goon enough to try it, for some lower stakes, of course. Vasco's first priority is to win the Brazilian championship, and all their focus will go in that direction. Everything else, including this Copa Sudamericana, is a secondary objective. That is why they have sent a minimal squad to Bolivia (just 15 players), with the players being mostly reserves and a couple of youngsters. The altitude should also affect them, as Brazilians and Argentinians are the teams that are most affected, since they never play at heights in the local league. Aurora seems to be in very good form, as they have 4 consecutive wins at home, 3 in the league, plus a 5-2 whooping of Nacional Asuncion (another team that has difficulties at high altitude) in the previous round of Sudamericana. Aurora also had the weekend off, so the players' fitness should be ok, and with the help provided by the altitude in Cochabamba, they shouldn't lose this game against the fringe players of Vasco. GL!

Aurora DNB @ 1.92, 3/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Aurora - La Paz

Bolivia Primera Division, Apertura

Clash in the Bolivian league, that promises to be entertaining and to have several goals. La Paz has been disastrous in the first 2 rounds, losing both matches, with a goal difference of 2-10. Their coach favors an offensive football, but that just didn't work so far (although they scored 2 goals in the first match, and also missed a penalty in the second). And their defense is obviously tragic, as the 10 goals haven't been conceded against the big guns of the championship (Bolivar, Oriente, etc). So again, today they are expected to play slightly offensive, as they have a complicated live in the relegation standing, and unless they start summing up points soon, they will surely fall. And Aurora wants to take advantage of this situation, that's why they will be forcing the goals with 3 strikers. They looked good in their only match played so far, at Mamore (won 2-0), and I'm sure they'll want to build on that. Last 2 matches between them also had several goals (Aurora won both this year, 3-0 and 3-2), so I hope they'll continue with this trend. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.87, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST