Nacional - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The line is sky-high, so I'll only take it with minimal stake, and I do so because I just can't miss this bet after seeing the teams' line-ups. Nacional is usually a very offensive and overish team, but today they will have even a more offensive formation, with 3 forwards (Luna, Medina, Bueno) plus Alvaro Recoba behind them. Speed is not his best skill, but his passing can break Cerro's defense, same as his free-kicks, and we should have enough speed on the flanks. Their defense is as poor as usual, so for sure they can (and most likely will) concede, especially since experienced striker Horacio Peralta will make his debut for Cerro Largo. Now, when it comes to the visitors, they are nothing special, losing the first round 2-3 at home against Montevideo Wanderers. So receiving 3 goals from Nacional is more than do-able, especially since their defensive line also crumbles when they are put under pressure. And just for statistics, if we look at their previous mutual matches, in 5 of their last 6 games Nacional and Cerro Largo finished with a minimum of 4 goals, as they have an average of 4 goals scored per match in those 6 games between them. This should really happen again, but as I said, only small stakes due to the high line. GL!

over 3.25 goals @ 2.00, 2/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Aurora - Cerro Largo

Copa Sudamericana 2012

Odds dropped a lot for this bet, but it's still worth taking, as I can't see anything past a home win here. Cerro Largo had solid performances in the Uruguayan league, and that's why they surprisingly took a Sudamericana spot, but those performances should be long gone by now. They have lost a lot of important players, pretty much the core of the team, as 5 key players have left the team. Their replacements are still a big unknown, but I'm confident they won't live up to the expectations, and they still need a lot of time to blend in. Another huge factor here is the altitude, as Aurora plays at over 2700 meters above the sea level. None of the players from Cerro Largo's team has ever played at high altitude, so they don't have first hand experience of it's effects. And this could have a huge impact on the game, especially since Cerro Largo will only arrive at the stadium a few hours before kick-off. Aurora is usually strong at home even against teams that know how to handle the altitude, so I can't really see them not winning this game. GL!

Aurora (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 5/10

Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Early match in Uruguay, but one that promises to provide quality entertainment, and also some goals. Both teams like to play offensively, and both of them need a win today, so I doubt any of them would be happy to just sit back and wait for their opponent's mistake. After Nacional's draw from last night, Defensor basically has a clear way to the final. If they win today, and also win their postponed match, they will be 6 points clear from Nacional, at least 4 points clear of Liverpool, and at least 6 points clear from Penarol, with 3 games remaining. So everything is in their hands. For Cerro Largo this will also be a huge match: a win will confirm their great season, and will also put them in contention for a place in the final, as well as for a place in the 2013 Copa Libertadores. So a draw is not in anybody's favor. And since the teams have the capacity and ability to play offensive football, and can also transfer the ball very quickly from defense to offense, goals should come. Since 2008, Defensor and Cerro faced each other 5 times, and 4 of those matches had at least 3 goals. So let's hope they stick to this trend. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.77, 3/10

Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The tough part is pretty much over for Nacional, as they played most of the good teams in the first few rounds (leader River, ex-leader Danubio and the solid Defensor Sporting), and since now they have a series of what should be some easy match, now is the moment to see where they stand. As I've said many times before, Nacional isn't reaching it's potential under the guidance of Marcelo Gallardo, but at least they have some pleasant matches to watch, thanks to a lethal offense, but also to some -at times- laughable defense. That is why after 5 rounds, they have the 3rd best attack in the league, with 9 goals scored, but also the 4th worst defense, with 8 conceded. But I think today we can expect some improvement. Recoba won't play, and I expect that to be a blow for Nacional, but Gallardo is forcing the attack, and will field 3 strikers today: Viudez (3 goals), Boghossian (3 goals) and Porta (2 goals). Cerro Largo isn't anything special (despite being better placed than Nacional), but nowadays you don't have to be a super team to score against the Tricolores. I expect Nacional to win this game, as they have proved they can play solid football against the weaker teams (beat Racing 3-2, coming back from 0-1 despite playing with a man less), and one thing should be certain: we should see some goals. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.93, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON