Bella Vista - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Big match for Defensor Sporting, as they are defending the lead in both the Clausura and the Anual table, with the end of the season rapidly aproaching. And even though on paper they have an easy schedule, things are not that easy. A match against Bella Vista always looks easy at first sight, since they are rock bottom in the Clausura, with a 20 point difference between themselves and Defensor Sporting. They also have a bad run of 5 consecutive defeats, and they are seriously being haunted by relegation, as they are 3 points down the relegation area. So if they want to have any chances of survival, they have to dig deep. And they have a bit of luck for this game, as Defensor will be missing a couple of key players. Giorgian De Arrascaeta (11/2) is one of their best players, and he will be unavailable after being injured with the U20 national team. He will join midfielder Nicolas Olivera (8/3) on the injury list, as well as midfielder Diego Laxalt (5/1) and Leonardo Pais (3/0), both of them starting the game on the bench. That means that Defensor will be missing two key players, and since they don't have a very deep squad, this could pose some problems. They are also less than impressive when playing away from home, so this line just seems a bit out of place. GL!

Bella Vista (+1 AH) @ 2.08, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON

Nacional - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

If there's one thing we should be expecting in this match, than it must be goals. Nacional are set as big favorites, but I don't see it as being that easy for them, as they just had to play an exhausting match in Copa Libertadores at high altitude. However, after two of Defensor's best players have left the team, I can't trust them too much either, so I'll stay away from any handicaps. But a bet on goals looks good for several reasons: first of all, the aforementioned possible tiredness for Nacional's players, which could lead to some midfield/defensive mistakes. Then, we have their attacking style of play, which leaves a lot of space at the back. They have good and fast forwards, but they have also been prone to a lot of defensive mistakes recently (they played 2 official games this season, scoring 5 and conceding 5 - strikers Alonso and Sanchez both have 2 goals scored). And for this match, both teams are looking rather offensive on paper, with a tactical formation of 4-3-3. That may not mean much on the field, but they also have a nice history of scoring goals, as 6 of their last 10 games have ended with at least 3 goals (3 of their last 4 actually ended with 2-2 scores). The line is a bit higher than I would have liked, but if both teams stay true to their game plans, we should have an easy winner here. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 2.05, 3/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

Defensor Sporting - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2013, Preliminary Round

So, here we are. First official bet of 2013! Let's hope it's going to be a lucky charm.

Olimpia comes to this match in the middle of a financial and administrative crisis. All their problems from last year are still real, and I have some serious doubts regarding their performances that are about to come. They haven't been paid for the last few months, and many of the players have reached their limit. On Monday, they refused to train and have left the club's establishment. However, they did make the trip to Montevideo, and will compete against Defensor, but the main question remains... how focused will they be? It's hard to train and to focus on a game when you are also protesting and you haven't been paid in more than 3 months. They could still put on a performance even under this circumstances, but Defensor Sporting are definitely no pushovers. They are one of the most solid teams in Uruguay, and it's incredibly hard to come away with points from the Luis Franzini stadium: in 2012, they were undefeated at home in the local league. They do miss a couple of players, who have been called up to the U20 South American Championship, so they'll have quite a short squad for this match. But the core of the team remains, and we should see a solid performance. The mood is also very different than Olimpia's, as the players are happy and enjoying their life with the club. So I can't really see past a home win here. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Progreso - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Two of the early leaders will be facing each other tonight, in what promises to be quite an exciting match. Progreso is the surprise package of the Apertura, so far, as the newly promoted are one of the leaders after the first 3 rounds, taking 7 points and scoring 8 goals. And I don't think we should put too much of their performance on luck, as all the points have been won as visitors, against not very comfortable teams. So it's easy to understand why their hopes are set high in this high-profile clash. But despite their great start, I'm not getting my hopes up for this team, as the results won't stay like this for too long, and their enthusiasm might go out. And today might be the turning point for them, as they face one of the giants: Defensor Sporting. The violets are always running at the front of the league, always looking to challenge for the title, and have a very good squad with which they can do that. They are also in good form, also with 7 points (including a draw with Nacional), so expect them to take this match seriously. Defensor have a much more solid team, with more quality and more confidence, so they should win this match. A nice increase of the odds makes this bet even better to take. GL!

Defensor (-0.25 AH) @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 1-4, WON

Defensor Sporting - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nice match is expected in Uruguay tonight, as two in-form teams will be facing each other. Both Defensor and Liverpool have 4 points in the first two rounds, so today one of them will be able to continue their good run. When the odds appeared, I thought they were set fairly, but recent odds movements (without serious reasons) give us some nice value on the home win. Defensor have been impressive so far, recording a 2-2 draw with Nacional, and trashing Wanderers 4-0 as visitors. Quite impressive results, as they have definitely marked their title challenge once again. Meanwhile, Liverpool also started the season in good form, and that is quite surprising for me. They have lost a lot of players, and had to start rebuilding their team, so their aspirations were far-fetched. However, they have managed to string a couple of positive results, both in Copa Sudamericana and the local championship. Still, I don't think this will last, as the new players should still be in their accommodation period, and as soon as they will meet a more serious team, they should have some difficulties. And that day should be today, as Defensor Sporting is not an easy team to play against, as they rarely lose. And since they have a more solid and experienced team, I expect them to do well today. I'm going with high stakes, because as I said, I see a lot of value in the home win after the increase in odds. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.28, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Defensor Sporting - El Tanque Sisley

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

This could be a great day for Defensor Sporting, as their fate in this championship is in their hands. A win today would make them the Clausura winners, thus earning a spot in the final of the league, and they could also become the new leaders in the Anual Standings, if Nacional fails to win. So really, everything is up to them, and I have high confidence in them being able to deliver the expected. They are on a roll currently, and their only absence in this game will be the lateral defender Pablo Pintos, who saw the red card in their last match. Other than that, nothing will change, and I don't see how a defensive absence would count too much against a team that will most likely defend throughout the match. El Tanque plays for nothing, as they are already safe from relegation. Nothing else for them this season, as they are far behind the places that qualify for a continental competition. They say they want to win, but they are quite a limited team, and they shouldn't pose too many problems to the title contenders. The line is quite high, and rightfully so, but Defensor should be more than able to cover it. GL!

Defensor (-1.5 AH) @ 2.05, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Rentistas - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Going on Defensor Sporting once again, because as I said, they have their fate in their own hands, and only if they would be top-class suckers they could miss the final. With a win today, they will be 4 points clear at the top of the table, with 3 games remaining, and they will also go 2 points behind Nacional in the anual table, ahead of the big derby between Nacional and Penarol. So they have a lot to fight for, and I'm sure their motivation will be 110%. On the other hand, Rentistas is playing just because they have to play. They are already relegated, so any points they might win would be only for pride, as otherwise it will do them no good. I really doubt their motivation (although they could be 'motivated' by Nacional, Penarol and Liverpool), and with Defensor having the quality advantage, which should be huge, they shouldn't fail to win this match. The handicap is -1 for the away team, and that may seem big, but it's just realistic, and normally Defensor should have no problem covering it. GL!

Defensor (-1 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10

Result: 0-2, WON

Defensor Sporting - Cerro Largo

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Early match in Uruguay, but one that promises to provide quality entertainment, and also some goals. Both teams like to play offensively, and both of them need a win today, so I doubt any of them would be happy to just sit back and wait for their opponent's mistake. After Nacional's draw from last night, Defensor basically has a clear way to the final. If they win today, and also win their postponed match, they will be 6 points clear from Nacional, at least 4 points clear of Liverpool, and at least 6 points clear from Penarol, with 3 games remaining. So everything is in their hands. For Cerro Largo this will also be a huge match: a win will confirm their great season, and will also put them in contention for a place in the final, as well as for a place in the 2013 Copa Libertadores. So a draw is not in anybody's favor. And since the teams have the capacity and ability to play offensive football, and can also transfer the ball very quickly from defense to offense, goals should come. Since 2008, Defensor and Cerro faced each other 5 times, and 4 of those matches had at least 3 goals. So let's hope they stick to this trend. GL!

over 2.75 goals @ 1.77, 3/10

Result: 2-1, HALF-WON

Defensor Sporting - Deportivo Quito

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Odds are moving slightly in our favor, and despite these teams starting their campaign in oposite moods, I'm favoring the home win here. Uruguayan football is much better than the Ecuadorian one, in my opinion at least, that is why we usually see the teams from Uruguay in the latter stages of continental competitions (last year for example, Penarol played the Libertadores final), while the Ecuadorians (with LDU as the exception) nowhere to be found. And despite starting the competition by being trashed at home by Velez, I believe there's more to Defensor than that, although the loss should come as no surprise, Velez being a very strong team. Ecuadorian teams are usually poor travelers, and despite their creditable 1-1 draw in Mexico, which was much deserved, I still don't see Deportivo as a big threat when it comes to big games. A slight advantage in motivation also for Defensor, as they are the ones that are in the need of a win, while Deportivo can still have hopes even in case of a defeat, as winning in Quito won't be easy for anybody. No major squad problems for any of them, so if Defensor can play to their potential, they should take the points here. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON

Penarol - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Second derby of this season in the Uruguayan first league, but the first between the teams that look like serious title contenders. Both teams started the season in style, being undefeated in the first 3 rounds, and although Penarol has a 2 points advantage, Defensor has the slight 'advantage' of having already played Nacional, the other big name of Uruguay. Penarol looked good in attack, cunning, and with deadly counter-attacks (except last match, that ended 0-0, but was played on a soaked pitch), but also their defense looked vulnerable at times, despite not conceding a goal yet, and a classy goalscorer like Risso could take advantage of that. And the defensive worries will surely get bigger today, for both teams. Penarol will miss defender Alejandro Gonzalez and defensive midfielder Nicolas Freitas. Meanwhile, Defensor continues with it's run of injured players, a run that started last tournament, and is still going on now. In the last few months, there are around 6-7 serious injuries for Defensor, and all of them in the defensive section. So, coach Repetto will have to dig even deeper to find a decent defensive line, one that it's been a long time since they showed their usual security. Zalayeta and Risso are the main offensive weapons for these 2 teams, and I'm quite sure they'll try to take as much advantage as possible from these weakened defenses. I expect some goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.02, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Nacional had the expected slow start for this tournament, and now they will have an even tougher challenge, as they face one of their main contenders for the title: Defensor Sporting. Nacional changed coach during the pre-season, and last week, Marcelo Gallardo made his debut on the bench. Pretty risky move, to put a coach without any type of experience, and hope that he does well, and he failed in the first round, drawing 3-3 at River. Awful defending for Nacional, but that should improve a bit today, as Coates will return on the field (best young player of Copa America). But even so, I don't expect too many changes in Nacional's style of play, as it's simply to early for Gallardo and his team. And don't be fooled by the 'they showed character last round, coming back from 0-2... they only did it because River had a man sent off. Defensor are sure to put a strong challenge for the title once again, as they have one of the best squads in the league. They made a strong start by beating Rampla in the first leg, and today they'll also have a boost, as they welcome back 3 players that were injured: Ibanez, Moiraghi and Caballero. Defensor should play more solid than Nacional, and if I'd have to pick a winner, I'd rather go with them. GL!

Defensor (+0.5 AH) @ 1.90, 4/10

Result: 2-2, WON

Defensor Sporting - Tacuarembo

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Odds are pretty high for this one, as bookies are probably counting on Defensor's lack of interest and focus. And so it might be, but early reports are giving their first team for today with almost all the regulars, trying to keep them in shape and football-focued for next week's final. Meanwhile, Tacuarembo will almost surely try some new players, like in the last round of Apertura, since they are already relegated and with nothing to lose. However, there are no certain details, as we don't know which of the regulars won't play, neither how many of them (the only thing certain is that th goal will be protected by the third keeper, who didn;t make a single appearance this season). So, Defensor with the regulars, Tacuarembo with some reserves, as we have a clear quality difference. And motivation should also be on Defensor's side, as they wnt to get to the final in a mood as good as possible, while Tacoarembo knows they are going down. Big quality gap here, and I'm happy to take the handicap. GL!

Defensor (-1 AH) @ 1.94, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Defensor Sporting - Penarol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Big derby tonight, between 2 of the best teams in Uruguay, in a match with a lot of importance for both teams, as whoever loses, is totally out of the title race in Clausura. But, since Penarol has also managed to qualify for the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores, they have shifted their objectives, especially since after their last 2 defeats, the title seems to be out of reach. And since on Thursday they will welcome Velez Sarsfield on their stadium, for the first leg of the semi-final, they will use a mixed team tonight, with a lot of players that aren't regulars and that haven't played too much this season. It will be more or less the same team that played last weekend, and that got trashed at home, 1-4, by River Plate. And if a lowly team like River can deliver such a beat-down as visitors, I imagine Defensor Sporting being more than able to do the same. They are also fighting for the title, and a chance to win it without having to play a final (they won the Apertura, but if they don't also win the Clausura, they'll have to settle the title with Nacional in a final of the league). Full squad for them tonight, and I expect them to be motivated, as even if they are unlikely to reach the first place, Penarol is certainly the team everyone wants to beat. Besides, the 3 points from tonight could help them take top spot in the aggregate table, so they have it all to play for. GL!

Defensor Sporting DNB @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 0-0, VOID

Tacuarembo - Defensor Sporting

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

The odds on Defensor make me want to cry, but they are rightly set, and I'm having little doubts they will lose this one. They are on the top spot of the standings, and they need to win here in order to secure the title. Of course, they could do that even with a draw or a loss, but it looks unlikely that both Nacional and Bella Vista will fail to win their matches, especially since both of them are playing against weaker opposition. Defensor is in good form, despite their last round loss at home against Nacional (their only defeat in the last 10 games), and are a free-scoring team, putting the ball in the opposition net 28 times in 14 matches, having the best attack in the league. Tacuarembo are the worst team in the league, managing to get only 5 points, and are on a dreadful run of 8 consecutive losses, in which they have managed to score just a single goal. And it gets better: for today, Tacuarembo's coach will field a team of youngsters, grew at the club, in order to see if something good shows up for the Clausura. Those guys have played a lot of matches together in the youth divisions, but the quality gap between them and Defensor is simply huge, and I doubt they can make an instant impact against the best team in the league, which on top of it all is also in need of points. GL!

Defensor Sporting (-1.25 AH) @ 2.07, 5/10

Result: 1-3, WON

Sport Huancayo - Defensor Sporting

Copa Sudamericana

Had a high stakes bet in mind a few games ago, but it looks like Huancayo won't be using their best line-up, and despite the squad looking much better than in the first leg, I can't fully trust them. And it remains to be seen how they will play, as qualification is obviously out of the question, but they can at least save their dignity and wash away part of the shame that they suffered in Uruguay (hope they'll be motivated by what happened to their ex-coach, who had to flee Huancayo as he received death threats from the fans). And that's what they say they'll do, wash the shame. In their favor comes, as I said, a better team that took the field in Uruguay, plus a new coach and the altitude advantage, so now there won't be any excuses for not winning. Defensor will probably come for a walk in the park, knowing there is no possible way for them to lose qualification. For that matter, they will only reach Huancayo about 2 hours before the game, and I doubt their minds are too focused on the match. The altitude should take it's toll on the Uruguayan team, so they will just wait to finish the formality of this match. Four changes are expected in their team, but I doubt that will have a huge impact on the game. GL!

Sport Huancayo (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON