Guarani - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Both teams started the season in awful fashion, but recently, at least Guarani showed signs of recovery. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last 10 games, Guarani won 5 (including games against Libertad and Olimpia), while Olimpia won only 2, against bottom teams like Cerro PF and Carapegua. It's no secret that Olimpia is knee-deep in problems, both administrative and financial, and it looks like there's no easy way out. The coach received backing from the board, having his contract extended, and the main blame is taken by the squad, which is also undergoing a renovation process. Therefore, once again, we will see on the field, from the first minute, players like Marcos Fingst (2/0), Alex Garcete (1/0) or Walter Clar (1/0). All of them are youngsters, barely breaking into the team, and I doubt they'll have what it takes to shift the balance in a derby. Guarani has the experience, in this case, so for sure they have the advantage. Also, in the previous 3 encounters between the two in 2013, Guarani won 2 and lost 1, and the goal difference over those 3 games is 9-4 in Guarani's favor. It's a Clasico, and I usually tend to stay away from these games, but this looks simply too good to skip: Olimpia plagued by problems and using youth players, Guarani in recovery of pace, and also the safe-line that the DNB provides. GL!

Guarani DNB @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!

Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON

Olimpia - Atletico MG

Copa Libertadores 2013, Final

Looking back at this season's Copa Libertadores, the current line looks like a joke. Atletico Mineiro were the most entertaining team, at least in the group stages, and have enchanted us with some fabulous results and performances, winning 5 out of their 6 matches, and scoring 16 goals on their way. The performances continued even after that, although they started to fade away after the 6-2 aggregate with Sao Paulo, struggling at time in the quarter and semi finals against Tijuana and Newell's (although we do have to agree those were tough matches, against a solid Mexican team and against the Argentinian champions). Olimpia haven't been bad either, although their matches have not been so glamorous: they've also scored 16 goals (including a 4-1 win over Newell's), but they kept it rather tight in the knock-out stages, proving that they can play both offense and defense. And today, against the in-form Brazilian stars, they will probably settle for a defensive position, despite playing at home. But the thing is that Olimpia have always scored when playing at home, regardless of the opposition (Santa Fe, Fluminense, Newell's, etc), while Mineiro have scored and conceded in almost all of their away games (the 0-2 defeat at Sao Paulo would be the exception). Two goals in this match are looking like a no-brainer, and I would go even for a higher line with some lower stakes... however, it's a final in South America, and I like the comfort zone that this line provides. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.79, 5/10
Result: 2-0, VOID

Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division

Olimpia's coach has made it official, announcing that for what's left of the season, he will use a completely alternative squad, in order to keep the regulars fresh and fit for the Copa Libertadore's semi-final against Santa Fe. They have nothing to play for in the league anyway, since Nacional have already been crowned as champions a few rounds ago. The only thing left for them to play for is Copa Libertadores, therefore in the remaining two league rounds, we will be seeing a completely different team, consisting mainly of fringe reserve players mixed with a handful of youngsters. They're record in the league isn't great, especially away from home, where they are on 3-5-2 and a 10-11 goal difference. Capiata doesn't have any immediate objectives either, but I'm sure they'll play with fire for a few reasons. First of all, they are a small team, so any win/performance against one of the giants would be enough reasons to celebrate. Besides, they've already beaten Olimpia in their previous match, 3-2 as visitors, so a repeat of that performance would be something to remember. They also need to gather as many points as possible to make sure they won't get caught in the relegation battle, so I'm going for the minnows today. GL!

Capiata (+0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF WON

Olimpia - Sportivo Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Olimpia had an awful start of the season, but in early March, everything appeared to be getting back on track, with wins against Cerro Porteno and Cerro de Franco, and also a draw away at Libertad. But everything went to waste after two consecutive defeats against Capiata and Sol de America. Of course, their Libertadores campaign is also taking it's toll, but to be on 10th place halfway through the competition is unacceptable for a club like Olimpia. But this should also motivate them for this match, as this is their best chance to climb positions. They have a free schedule next week, so all the regulars will play tonight, focusing solely on this match. Salgueiro and Bareiro will be in charge of Olimpia's defense, and at least from Bareiro, I am expecting a lot. And as I was saying, against Luqueno they have their best bet to get back to winning ways, as Luqueno are simply the worst team in the league. In 11 games they barely managed 6 points (with one win), and they were only able to score 3 goals, while conceding 12. Olimpia pounds them every time they play at home, and I have no doubts that they'll record another win today. GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 4-3, VOID

Olimpia - Cerro Porteno PF

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Despite a poor domestic campaign, Olimpia is having a great performance in Copa Libertadores, where they are currently topping a group with Newell's and U de Chile, and are already qualified. They did go through a tough match just a few weeks ago, recording a 1-0 win in Chile, so the manager has decided to give a rest to most of his key players. Therefore, tonight we'll see an Olimpia side with very few regulars, and a lot of reserve players. So the current odds seem to be off by quite a bit, and they would have been exaggerated even if Olimpia would have used their best squad. I was talking about their poor performances in the league, as they have only won 2 games from the 7 they played (much to their credit, those two wins came against Cerro Porteno and Guarani). But when you draw with Rubio Nu, Luqueno and Carapegua, and lost at home against General Diaz, there's definitely room for improvement. Cerro de Franco also has 2 wins so far, but their general results are slightly better, as they drew at Libertad last week, and in February they defeated league leaders Nacional by 5-2. Another interesting thing is that ever since their promotion, they have drawn all of their matches against Olimpia, so that gives me even more confidence that they won't lose today against an alternative team... and even if they do, they should at least keep it tight. GL!

Cerro (+1 AH) @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST

Olimpia - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Both teams are passing through some tough times, and the highlights are of course around Olimpia. They've had a rather poor start, with just 4 points from the first 3 games, and what really sparked the fire was their last match a few days ago, when they lost at home 0-1, against newly promoted General Diaz. And their problems are on all levels: the players haven't received their wages for December, there was a mass resignation in the board, and the coach employed several rotations from match to match, trying to keep his players fit for Copa Libertadores. However, things are starting to settle down, as some new directors took over the club, and for today, the best team is expected to take the field (just one regular will miss the game). Rubio Nu didn't enjoy a good start either, as their opening win was marred by two consecutive losses (they also lost last round against a newly promoted team). Of course, no one has too high hopes for them, and if Olimpia will be at full force they should win this game fairly easily, as they have for the past 5 occasions. I'm confident they can put an end to their problems, especially since we have seen them at full potential, and they played like a real force (2-1 win at Guarani and a 3-0 win against U de Chile in Libertadores - both of them being much better teams than Rubio Nu). GL!

Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 1.93, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

Olimpia - U de Chile

Copa Libertadores 2013, Group Stage

Olimpia is still in the middle of an institutional crisis, with results stalling, with unpaid salaries and with the president expected to resign within the next few days. So it must be hard for the players to focus in this conditions, but they have all vowed to put away those worries, and to put in a committed performance against the Chileans. And their coach apparently also wants to recover from last week's 1-3 defeat at Newells, and will employ a much more offensive formation, so we should see the usual attacking Olimpia, with capable players like Fredy Bareriro, Carlos Ferreyra and Salgueiro. U de Chile isn't the same team that enchanted us with it's football in 2011, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. And while their offensive power is not what it used to be, their defense is even poorer, as they often make serious mistakes, and allow unnecessary spaces at the back. And some recent injuries are what actually convinced me to take this bet. U de Chile will miss key defenders Eugenio Mena, Osvaldo Gonzalez and Waldo Ponce. The bad part is that they will also miss offensive midfielder Luciano Civelli. But adding up the pros and cons, and judging by both teams' style of play, I expect to see some goals here, in what should be an entertaining match. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Defensor Sporting - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2013, Preliminary Round

So, here we are. First official bet of 2013! Let's hope it's going to be a lucky charm.

Olimpia comes to this match in the middle of a financial and administrative crisis. All their problems from last year are still real, and I have some serious doubts regarding their performances that are about to come. They haven't been paid for the last few months, and many of the players have reached their limit. On Monday, they refused to train and have left the club's establishment. However, they did make the trip to Montevideo, and will compete against Defensor, but the main question remains... how focused will they be? It's hard to train and to focus on a game when you are also protesting and you haven't been paid in more than 3 months. They could still put on a performance even under this circumstances, but Defensor Sporting are definitely no pushovers. They are one of the most solid teams in Uruguay, and it's incredibly hard to come away with points from the Luis Franzini stadium: in 2012, they were undefeated at home in the local league. They do miss a couple of players, who have been called up to the U20 South American Championship, so they'll have quite a short squad for this match. But the core of the team remains, and we should see a solid performance. The mood is also very different than Olimpia's, as the players are happy and enjoying their life with the club. So I can't really see past a home win here. GL!

Defensor (-0.5 AH) @ 2.02, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Sportivo Carapegua - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Sportivo Carapegua is the team with the best chances of remaining in the league, as they depend only on themselves. Even though they are currently sitting on the last place in the league, with a win they will leapfrog both Tacuary and Independiente, as they have been playing in the first division for only one year, therefore their average can increase a lot with a win. And a win is their only chance here, as a draw or a loss will condemn them to relegate, once again without having to look at the others' results. Squad-wise, Olimpia is taking this match seriously, as they will be using pretty much their best squad, with only 2 changes. But the big question mark is their motivation. They don't have any chances to win the title, and they are looking good as the best classified non-champion team in the general standings (5 points ahead of Nacional, meaning that they can only lose the Libertadores place is Nacional or Guarani become champions - meaning that Libertad has to lose at home against Luqueno... either way, there is nothing that Olimpia can do about it). Carapegua is a poor team, there's no denying that, but they need this win badly, and recently, Olimpia has been almost just as poor. And this nice increase in odds gives us a good bet here. GL!

Carapegua (+0.25 AH) @ 2.01, 4/10
Result: 4-1, WON

Emelec - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2012

This will be the 4th time Emelec and Olimpia will face-off this year, and so far, only the Ecuadorians have been happy. They have won all 3 matches so far, knocking Olimpia out from Copa Libertadores, and also taking a 1-0 advantage into this match. So it really has to be seen if Olimpia can react and end this bad run against Emelec. And they have to pull something off, if they are to advance in the next stage. Won't expect them to go all-in attack, as they are just 1-0 behind, but they should play a bit more offensively if they want to score, with some extra-attention payed to the counter attacks, an area where they excel. And they should have plenty of opportunities for that, if Emelec plays according to their starting formation. They know that a 1-0 advantage is not to be trusted too much, that's why coach Quinteros is planning to use an offensive formation, with an offensive trio: Mondaini, de Jesus and 'Lucho' Figueroa. So from the set-up, and the expected starting teams, I think we can expect an edgy match, with plenty of chances for both teams, and this line should normally be covered easily. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Sol de America - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Two of the most in-form teams of the league will face each other tonight, in what could prove to be a title-clincher. Sol de America must be the most surprising team this season, as they were in the leading pack for most of the season, and even though at the start they were only making points against the lower teams, recently this has changed, as they have won 5 of their last 6 games, including a 1-0 win at Libertad and a 3-2 win at home with Nacional. They showed they can play against the big teams, they are an offensive-minded team with an average defense, so usually we can expect goals when they are playing. They don't have any objectives for the remaining of the tournament, but I'm expecting high motivation, as a big prize-money is expected from Cerro Porteno is they manage to put a stumble in Olimpia's way. On the other hand, Olimpia could clinch the title if they win and Cerro doesn't, and Sol's style of play should suit them. They have been rather underish lately, but it's not a big surprise, since pretty much all their opponents refused to play, choosing rather to lock themselves in defense. It's a bit of a risk here, but I think the chances to see at least 3 goals are quite high. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.96, 4/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Olimpia Asuncion - Guarani

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

This is a match that could have major implications in the title race. Olimpia will take a big step forward if they manage to win tonight, keeping at minimum the 4 points advantage that they have over the second placed team. But if they fail, the gate will be wide open for Cerro Porteno to cut the gap and push the fight all the way to the wire. And Guarani is a team that is not usually afraid to take on the big guns, as they always try to play on level terms. And they are favoring an offensive approach whenever possible. Olimpia is suffering from the game-play point of view, ever since Orteman and Marin left, but they are still getting the results. Most of the times, they are suffering against the small teams, that lock themselves in defense, but against a team like Guarani, that should come out and play, they should be able to find spaces for their fast attackers. Also, we shouldn't forget 2 of their matches from last year, both of them ending in 4-3 for Olimpia. Plenty of reasons to expect goals, so let's hope they won't let us down. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 1.77, 3/10

Result: 2-0, LOST

Olimpia - Libertad

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The Paraguayan league returns to action this mid-week, and a Clasico will for sure catch everyone's eyes. Olimpia and Libertad face each other in a match that could decide the title. Olimpia can take one more step towards the title if they win, while Libertad can get right back into the fight, and could also leave the door wide open for Cerro Porteno, who are 3 points behind the leaders. I did mention in several previous occasions that Olimpia kicked-out some players, due to indiscipline, and those players were quite key pieces in their formation: Marin, Orteman and Romero. And ever since that happened, they have suffered visibly in their last-gasp win over Rubio Nu and their draw with Nacional (they have only won 1 from their last 4 matches). Libertad is one of the most solid teams from Paraguay, and they aren't in a better position simply because Copa Libertadores took it's toll on their league performances. But now they should go back to normal, as they are in quite good form, as they proved last week when they won 2-1 at Nacional. Olimpia could struggle one more time, against a traditionally strong opponent (they have beaten Libertad only once in their last 10 official games), so this bet looks like a very good one. GL!

Libertad (+0.25 AH) @ 1.78, 3/10

Result: 2-1, LOST

Nacional - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Taking this early as well, as I'm quite surprised by these odds, and I don't really believe they will remain like this for two more days. I've written last week about Olimpia's situation, and not much has changed since. Marin, Oretman and Romero are still out of the squad due to disciplinary reasons, and this should keep Olimpia suffering when it comes to dangerous play. Last match, without the trio, they struggled with Rubio Nu. They have indeed dominated the match, so the win is deserved, but the goal only came in the 95th minute, as Olimpia was playing with an extra-man since the 60th minute. So a lot of struggle, against one of the poorest teams in the league. With Nacional we should see a different scenario. Despite their rather poor season, they are still class better than Rubio, and should be able to pose more of a threat to Olimpia. Matches between them are always tight affairs, but this time, I think Nacional should have the edge. I'm counting at least on a draw, but I also don't rule out a home win. There's value in this bet, as I don't see how Olimpia can be considered favorites, so I'll be taking it with full stake. GL!

Nacional (+0.25 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10

Result: 0-0, HALF-WON

Olimpia - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

A lot of internal problems happened this week for Olimpia, and coming into this match, the mood should be far from great. Especially since three of their most important players have been excluded from the team: Adrian Romero, Vladimir Marin and Sergio Orteman (the last 2 are very important players, offensive midfielders, and I was always confident in Olimpia when they were playing). They still have great players, and a good enough team to suceed, but without these players it will obviously be much harder. Another absence will be of Meza, who is suspended. Also, their form hasn't been the best lately, making only 4 points in the last 3 matches: a hard fought victory at Carapegua, a 3-3 home draw with Cerro de Franco, and a 0-3 trashing by Independiente. So, not impressive results, against less than impressive teams. Rubio Nu are no scare-crows, as they haven't won a match since the beginning of April, but they can pull off some great results from time to time (their last win was against Nacional, as visitors). And while they are nowhere near Olimpia's quality, I think that now they stand a chance to at least lose by the minimum, as Olimpia has some serious issues of it's own. GL!

Rubio (+1.25 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10

Result: 1-0, HALF-WON

Cerro Porteno - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

It's time for another Super Clasico in Paraguay, as Cerro Porteno and Olimpia will face off in Ciudad del Este, a scene quite unfamiliar with these type of matches. And even though usually I try to stay away from this big derbies (or go for goals at most), today I have a good feeling about a home win. Cerro comes well into this match, undefeated in their last 4 games, recording some nice wins against Guarani and Libertad. They currently sit on second place, 4 points behind Olimpia, so they should be 100% motivated to take the points here, and to put some pressure on the leaders. Fitness shouldn't be a problem, as they had an entire week to prepare for this match. Not the same can be said about Olimpia, whom I expect to suffer both physically and psychically. On Thursday, they signed their exit from Copa Libertadores, losing at home with Emelec 2-3, despite having the match in hand for a long period of time. Also, in the last half of hour or so, they failed the fitness test, as most players were barely moving on the field, allowing Emelec to dominate and keep the ball. And I doubt their condition is much better now, as 3 days to prepare for a clasico is too little time. The Libertadores defeat should still ring in their heads, and Cerro should take full advantage of that. GL!

Cerro DNB @ 2.00, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

Olimpia - Emelec

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Things are simple here: whoever wins, qualifies (a little plus for Olimpia, as they could also qualify with only a draw, provided Flamengo don't win their match). The hard part is to choose the correct bet, as I was oscilating between the handicap on Olimpia and the over. And I finally decided to go on the over, as both teams must go out in attack in order to win the match, and Olimpia's defense can make things interesting if they don't up their game. So, two offensive formations are expected, and since both teams have plenty of offensive power but also some lackluster defenses, goals are of course expected. Olimpia are the big favorites here, of course, and they are fully motivated to win this match, since they rested a lot of regulars in the league, so as to have them fit for this match. Once again, there will be a lot of expectations from Marin, Orteman, Caballero, Zeballos and Bianuchi. On the Ecuadorian side, De Jesus and Lucho Figueroa will be assigned with scoring the goals, and with Lucho's great experience and form (scored 2 last week against Flamengo), he is the man to watch. Winner takes it all here, so let's hope we'll also take some goals. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.82, 5/10

Result: 2-3, WON

Lanus - Olimpia

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Olimpia comes in a very good moment, and will be a tough team to beat, especially after their previous matches in Libertadores, where they beat Lanus in Paraguay 2-1, came back to draw the match at Flamengo after being 0-3 down, and also won the return match with the Brazilians, 3-2. So it's a perfect time for them, and are looking like solid contenders to qualify to the next round, especially since their last match will be at home with Emelec. However, Lanus is still leading the group, and will look for the 3 points tonight, that will assure them 90% of their qualification, as in the last round they travel to Brazil, so any lost point today could prove to be fatal. Both teams are expected to go full strength in this match, so we'll see on the pitch Olimpia's offensive force, consisting of Marin, Orteman, Zeballos and Caballero. That will definitely be dangerous in positional attacks, as well as on counters and from set pieces. However, their week point still remains the defense (they conceded 7 goals in their 4 matches so far), so there should be plenty of chances for Regueiro and Pavone to score. Both teams have rested their key players during the weekend, so they should all be up to this task. And as I said, whoever wins basically qualifies, so I see them both going for the 3 points, not leaving anything to chance for the last round. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 5/10

Result: 6-0, WON

Olimpia - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

Very low line, in my opinion, especially after seeing last week's match. After that match (Flamengo had a 3-0 lead, but let it slip in the last 15 minutes, ending in a 3-3 draw), I can say for sure that Flamengo will come to Paraguay for revenge. And with Olimpia being a team that won't give up that easily, especially at home, I expecting several goals once again. Both teams are in with good chances to qualify, but a loss today could complicate things, and I'm sure nobody wants that. That's why I'm expecting an offensive game from both teams, trying to take advantage of the defensive weaknesses that both teams presented. And this thing will surely be helped by the fact that both Olimpia and Flamengo have the players with which to do damage. For example, Olimpia has Orteman, Marin, Caballero and Zeballos, players that could strike deadly at any time, especially on counters and from set pieces. On the other side, the Brazilians have Ronaldinho, Wagner Love, Deivid and Bottinelli, players who for sure don't need any presentation. So, with this being said, and with the line set as low as 2.25, there is definitely a bit of value in this bet. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 1.88, 5/10

Result: 3-2, WON