Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
Despite a poor domestic campaign, Olimpia is having a great performance in Copa Libertadores, where they are currently topping a group with Newell's and U de Chile, and are already qualified. They did go through a tough match just a few weeks ago, recording a 1-0 win in Chile, so the manager has decided to give a rest to most of his key players. Therefore, tonight we'll see an Olimpia side with very few regulars, and a lot of reserve players. So the current odds seem to be off by quite a bit, and they would have been exaggerated even if Olimpia would have used their best squad. I was talking about their poor performances in the league, as they have only won 2 games from the 7 they played (much to their credit, those two wins came against Cerro Porteno and Guarani). But when you draw with Rubio Nu, Luqueno and Carapegua, and lost at home against General Diaz, there's definitely room for improvement. Cerro de Franco also has 2 wins so far, but their general results are slightly better, as they drew at Libertad last week, and in February they defeated league leaders Nacional by 5-2. Another interesting thing is that ever since their promotion, they have drawn all of their matches against Olimpia, so that gives me even more confidence that they won't lose today against an alternative team... and even if they do, they should at least keep it tight. GL!
Cerro (+1 AH) @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
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Showing posts with label Cerro Porteno PF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cerro Porteno PF. Show all posts
Apr 8, 2013
Oct 31, 2012
Nacional - Cerro PF
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Following Guarani's defeat yesterday, at home against Libertad, the championship is pretty much open once again, and for sure the challengers Nacional and Olimpia would want to take advantage of this misstep of the leaders. With a win today, Nacional will get 6 points behind Guarani, and would get their hopes back up. And they are a solid team, especially when it comes to playing some of the lower teams. As proof, in their last 10 games, they have failed to win just 4, against top class opponents: lost against Libertad, Olimpia and Guarani, and drew with Cerro Porteno. So they only failed to win against the giants of the league. Today, a full squad is expected to take the field, and they should be considered high favorites against an irregular Cerro PF. They've had some good results, like the 1-0 win against Guarani, or the 2-2 draws against Olimpia and at Cerro Porteno, but all the merits from these matches have been wasted with a home defeat against Sol de America, or a 1-2 defeat at rock-bottom Independiente. So they mix results and performances, making them a team that can't be trusted. Quality-wise, Nacional should be much better, and I think there is some value in these odds. Home win is expected. GL!
Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Following Guarani's defeat yesterday, at home against Libertad, the championship is pretty much open once again, and for sure the challengers Nacional and Olimpia would want to take advantage of this misstep of the leaders. With a win today, Nacional will get 6 points behind Guarani, and would get their hopes back up. And they are a solid team, especially when it comes to playing some of the lower teams. As proof, in their last 10 games, they have failed to win just 4, against top class opponents: lost against Libertad, Olimpia and Guarani, and drew with Cerro Porteno. So they only failed to win against the giants of the league. Today, a full squad is expected to take the field, and they should be considered high favorites against an irregular Cerro PF. They've had some good results, like the 1-0 win against Guarani, or the 2-2 draws against Olimpia and at Cerro Porteno, but all the merits from these matches have been wasted with a home defeat against Sol de America, or a 1-2 defeat at rock-bottom Independiente. So they mix results and performances, making them a team that can't be trusted. Quality-wise, Nacional should be much better, and I think there is some value in these odds. Home win is expected. GL!
Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON
Feb 20, 2012
Cerro Porteno - Cerro Porteno PF
Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
Small derby between two teams that share the same name, but don't also share the same expectations for this season. Cerro Porteno wants the title, and it could be a nice boost for their local campaign the fact that they are not playing in Copa Libertadores, which should give them more breathing time. However, they appear to have only reinforced themselves in offense, with the signing of Santiago Salcedo (who will be a starter tonight, along Nanni and supported by dos Santos), while in the back they still seem quite weak, receiving 3 goals in two matches, from non-impressive teams like Luqueno or Carapegua. So, after a hard fought victory last week (2-1 against Carapegua, with the winner scored in the 94th minute), Cerro must put in a classy performance here, in front of their fans, so I'm expecting to see some goals. Cerro de Franco don't seem like the team that are able to put some problems to Cerro Porteno, but scoring a goal is possible. However, their weakest point, and the strong point of this bet, is the defensive line, a very poor one, that managed to concede 4 goals from Sol de America. This should go down as an easy win for the hosts, but don't count out the visitors' chances to score, therefore a minimum of 3 goals is more than possible. GL!
over 2.75 goals @ 1.70, 3/10
Result: 1-0, LOST
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