Nacional - Sp. Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Nacional - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST

General Diaz - Nacional

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!

Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON

Nacional Asuncion - The Strongest

Copa Sudamericana 2013, First Round

Going for the goals in this match, as we'll have on the pitch two teams that are traditionally high-scoring. Nacional are the reigning champions of the Paraguayan Apertura, a competition that they've won quite comfortably, and even afforded to relax during the last 5-6 rounds. They had the best offense in the league, with 40 goals scored in 22 matches, but their defense wasn't at the top, as they also conceded 25. They are a team that like to go out and control the game offensively, and don't usually have any problems in increasing the pace and taking the ball forward, movements that are alos facilitated by their 4-3-3 formation. The team didn't change too much compared to the one that won Apertura, and they are even stating that Copa Sudamericana is their next objective. The Strongest aren't known for their away games, but they also like to play an offensive game, and as a result we can see they now have 17 matches played as visitors, and in all of them they have scored at least one goal (including against Atletico Mineiro, Sao Paulo and Arsenal Sarandi, in this year's Copa Libertadores). I'll take the over rather than the handicap, because if both teams play their games, we should easily see 3 goals. GL!

over 3 goals @ 2.03, 4/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Nacional -Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Quite a low line set-up for Nacional here, as if we look at their current form, we could have expected something like -1.25. And the odds are pretty decent too. Nacional haven't lost for 6 games, and had 5 consecutive wins before last week's 0-0 draw, away at 4th plac Guarani. During this run, some clear victories against Olimpia and Libertad propelled Nacional towards the top of the table, as they currently hold a 3-point advantage over second placed General Diaz. Rubio Nu is struggling at the moment, as after their first-round victory they weren't able to add another 3 points. No win since the beginning of February, home defeats against Capiata and Luqueno, and awful morale took it's toll on the team, despite some hard fought draws with Olimpia and Guarani. Regarding team news, Nacional will welcome back forward Julian Benitez (6 goals in 5 matches), who was absent against Guarani. Offensive midfielder Gustavo Cristaldo (2/1) could also make a return, but his fitness is still a doubt at this moment. So, great form for Nacional (who will be trying to extend their advantage at the top), awful performances from Rubio Nu, along with the return of Nacional's top scorer... we should have a clear home win here. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID

Nacional Asuncion - General Diaz

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

I'm sure we would have had much lower odds if this match would have been played in the first round of the championship... but after an impressive start from General Diaz, the bookies are overreacting, thus giving us some nice odds. I'm not denying General Diaz's merits here, as it is an extraordinary feat to have 6 consecutive wins after their promotion to the top division, and to see among those wins some high-profile results like 1-0 as visitors against Olimpia and Guarani. However, this form won't be lasting forever, and they are bound to go on a downward trend soon. And Nacional looks like the best team to end this run for them. They are on second place, 3 points behind Diaz, with5 out of 6 wins. Besides the shameful defeat at Cerro de Franco (2-5), they also have some good wins, like the 1-0 against Libertad, and the morale boosting 3-0 win against Olimpia. They will definitely miss Silvio Torrales, who is on international duty, but other than that, they shouldn't have too many squad problems. General Diaz certainly won't be pushovers here, but with a solid team, good form and also with the home advantage, Nacional should take this. GL!

Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON

Deportivo Capiata - Nacional

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Strange team this Nacional in the first few rounds... they managed to pull off some very good results, like the 4-3 win against Carapegua, and 1-0 with Libertad, but the first time they had to travel, Cerro de Franco pounded them heavily, winning 5-2. From what I've seen and heard, whenever they are expected to take control of the match and push forward, they leave a lot of spaces behind, in an already shaky defense (this was avoided against Libertad with a more defensive formation). They are favorites for today's game, so they can't just sit back and wait, and normally they should concede, but from what I've seen so far, Capiata are among the poorest team in the league. They lost against fellow newcomers General Diaz in the opening round, and than they were simply trashed at home by Guarani, 0-5. They did manage to win last round against Rubio Nu, but only after a red card for Rubio (and they actually took the lead, one man down). So I don't really think they have chances to take something against Nacional. GL!

 

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 2.00, 4/10

Result: 0-1, HALF-WON

Nacional - Cerro PF

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Following Guarani's defeat yesterday, at home against Libertad, the championship is pretty much open once again, and for sure the challengers Nacional and Olimpia would want to take advantage of this misstep of the leaders. With a win today, Nacional will get 6 points behind Guarani, and would get their hopes back up. And they are a solid team, especially when it comes to playing some of the lower teams. As proof, in their last 10 games, they have failed to win just 4, against top class opponents: lost against Libertad, Olimpia and Guarani, and drew with Cerro Porteno. So they only failed to win against the giants of the league. Today, a full squad is expected to take the field, and they should be considered high favorites against an irregular Cerro PF. They've had some good results, like the 1-0 win against Guarani, or the 2-2 draws against Olimpia and at Cerro Porteno, but all the merits from these matches have been wasted with a home defeat against Sol de America, or a 1-2 defeat at rock-bottom Independiente. So they mix results and performances, making them a team that can't be trusted. Quality-wise, Nacional should be much better, and I think there is some value in these odds. Home win is expected. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 3-0, WON

Nacional - Independiente

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nice line we have here, for a match in which I can't see past the home win. Nacional are contenders for the top spots, and have some nice chances of getting into the title fight, even though it's going to be hard, as they are currently 8 points behind leaders Guarani. But they are in good form now, coming off 3 undefeated matches, including a 1-1 draw at Cerro Porteno last week. But they are not the main reason for this bet, which is more like a bet against Independiente. They are pretty much the poorest team in the league, with just one win in the 10 games played so far in this tournament. And that win came at home, against Cerro PF, a newly promoted team (and even they are doing much better in the standings than Independiente). When playing against the better teams of the league, they just fail miserably, as they lost 0-1 at home with Cerro Porteno, while as visitors they've been beaten 1-3 by Guarani and 0-3 at Libertad. Earlier this year, they have also lost both games played against Nacional, 2-5 at home and 0-5 away. So we should see pretty much a repeat of that performance tonight, and the line/odds are very good. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 4/10
Result: 5-1, WON

Nacional - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Taking this early as well, as I'm quite surprised by these odds, and I don't really believe they will remain like this for two more days. I've written last week about Olimpia's situation, and not much has changed since. Marin, Oretman and Romero are still out of the squad due to disciplinary reasons, and this should keep Olimpia suffering when it comes to dangerous play. Last match, without the trio, they struggled with Rubio Nu. They have indeed dominated the match, so the win is deserved, but the goal only came in the 95th minute, as Olimpia was playing with an extra-man since the 60th minute. So a lot of struggle, against one of the poorest teams in the league. With Nacional we should see a different scenario. Despite their rather poor season, they are still class better than Rubio, and should be able to pose more of a threat to Olimpia. Matches between them are always tight affairs, but this time, I think Nacional should have the edge. I'm counting at least on a draw, but I also don't rule out a home win. There's value in this bet, as I don't see how Olimpia can be considered favorites, so I'll be taking it with full stake. GL!

Nacional (+0.25 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10

Result: 0-0, HALF-WON

Nacional - Rubio Nu

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

The handicap is a bit bigger than what I had hoped for (I was seeing -0.75 in my fantasies), so while there's almost value in this bet, it's also one with slim to none chances of failing, as anything other than a home win would be a huge surprise. The class diference between these teams is obvious even if we only look at the standings. Nacional is fighting for the top spots, sitting on 3rd currently, 5 points behind the leaders, while Rubio, despite their high pre-season expectations, are only on 9th place, with 10 points from 9 matches. The hosts are really playing well this season, especially at home, where they have 5 consecutive victories in the league. The full squad has been called up for today's game, so there are very big chances to see their best 11 on the pitch, despite their Libertadores duties from next week. Meanwhile, Rubio are in a slump of form, managing to take only 4 points from their last 7 games, and even those points aren't impressive, drawing away at Luqueno and beating Independiente at home. As visitors, they haven't won a match in 4 tries, having a total of 11 goals conceded in those 4 games. They are simply poor this season, and can't really see how they will be able to take something from today's game. At least a one-goal win for Nacional is highly expected, so this bet looks very safe. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.75, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Nacional - Sol de America

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Well, I've been waiting for this match for almost a week now, praying that we'll get some good odds, and I have to say that it's better than I expected. The odds are probably inflated by Sol de America's perfect start of the season, winning 3/3, with 10 goals scored and only 3 conceded. And while I don't want to take away any of their merits (3/3 is impressive, regardless of the opposition), the teams they have played against are far being top-quality. Cerro de Franco are newly-promoted, Independiente are a below-average team, while only Rubio Nu are a serious team, although weaker than last season, and usually poor when it come to traveling. Meanwhile, Nacional has only 6 points, but their defeat came against Libertad, while their two wins should have a bigger meaning, as they were against an always tricky Tacuary, and away at Guarani, one of the above-mid-table teams. I really can't see Nacional failing here, and Sol should come down to earth after this match. High stakes, because I see value here, as I wasn't expecting more than a 1.60 (max) for the home win. GL!

Nacional @ 1.99, 4/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Nacional Asuncion - Cruz Azul

Copa Libertadores 2012, Group Stage

A nice movement in odds has caught my attention here. From an average opening price of 2.10 to the current average of 2.45 is really something, and it only suits my taste, since I see no reason for this movements. The Mexican teams are tough to beat usually (although Chivas's performance from last night left me with a sour taste), but when playing away from home they are usually beatable. Especially since for tonight, there are some rumours circulating, that coach Meza could give a rest to some of the regulars, in preparation for their league match against Tijuana, as Cruz Azul are fighting hard to win a trophy after almost 15 years. Meanwhile, Nacional have lost their first match of the season, against Libertad, but besides a red card that ended their chances of a come-back, they also saved a couple of their key players, especially for this Libertadores match. It should be a tight affair, but I just can't see the Paraguayans losing this game, so the new DNB line looks very good. GL!

Nacional DNB @ 1.75, 5/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

Cerro Porteno - Nacional

Paraguay Primera Division

Nacional will have some squad problems for this derby. 18 players have traveled to Iran on Monday, and around 11-12 of them are from the first squad. They had a contract signed for a mini-tour in Iran, and the Federation refused to postpone this match, so they'll have to take on Cerro Porteno with what they have. Of course, some of their most used players have been left in Paraguay, but at least 5 changes are expected, compared to their usual line-up. And things could get even worse in case of an injury, or in the second half, because almost all the players from the bench are youngsters. And even their form is shaky, having lost their last 2 matches, against General Caballero and Sol de America (two of the lower teams of the league), thus giving Cerro Porteno a chance to tie them for the top league position. El Ciclon comes in good form, 2 consecutive victories, and undefeated for almost a month. Also, they are playing very nice football, scoring 14 goals in the last 5 games. For tonight, a solid line-up is expected, with their offensive weapons ready to go: dos Santos, Bareiro and Nanni (who comes from a suspension), and I expect them to be too much for a decimated Nacional. GL!

Cerro Porteno (-0.25 AH) @ 1.97, 5/10

Result: 1-3, LOST

Nacional - Olimpia

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Both teams are coming after mid-week Copa Sudamericana matches, but with opposed feelings. Olimpia managed a win in Ecuador, 2-1 with Emelec, passing through to the next round, while Nacional are out after being trashed by Aurora in the heights of Bolivia. So morale should be different for these teams, but Nacional should still have a small advantage here, as they can now fully focus on the domestic tournament. With Olimpia, things are a bit more complicated, as they have to take on this match between 2 Sudamericana matches (will play the first leg of the quarter-finals next week), and coach Pelusso has already announced he will be making some changes for this derby, in order to keep his players fresh. No official line-up has yet been announced, but it is expected that at least 5 regulars will be out, leaving Olimpia with a much weakened team. So they shouldn't be set as favorites here, definitely. Nacional is a strong team, current champions, and with Sudamericana out of the way, they can now focus on defending their title, and I'm quite confident they won't lose tonight. GL!

Nacional DNB @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Nacional Asuncion - Independiente

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional entered a slight negative run of form, as they have 3 consecutive matches without a win, and there are already some voices of discontent, for which I expect a bounce back tonight. First of all, in the league, they drew at home with Cerro Porteno and lost at Sportivo Luqueno, but they were using mixed squads for those matches, so those matches can be overlooked. But, they were resting the regulars for the Sudamericana clashes, and the low level showed against Aurora (1-1 at home) was the result that sparked those negative comments. But they still are one of the best Paraguayan teams, and with a full team expected to start tonight, I trust them to turn things around, and silence those who are criticizing them. Especially since Independiente are one of the lower teams from the league. It's true that they have only lost one of the 5 matches played in the Clausura, but they also have only won one game in their last 14 games (9 of those were draws), and their recent good form came mostly against teams of similar stature (won at Cerro Porteno, and that's a big surprise, but otherwise they recorded only draws against teams like Sol de America, Luqueno, etc... including a loss at General Caballero). And keep in mind that we also have the revenge factor, as Independiente caused Nacional's biggest loss in the Apertura, trashing them 5-1. So I expect a blood-thirsty Nacional tonight, going out to strike early in the match, and they should win this comfortably. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10 

Result: 2-1, HALF WON

Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteno

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional comes after winning the Apertura tournament, and despite still keeping a high level of play, I see them as a bit lower than in the first part of the season. And they also have to focus on 2 competitions, as they also play in Copa Sudamericana, where they qualified for the next stage. Therefore, in order to keep his players fit, it is reported that Nacional's coach will make a few rotations for this match. Nothing is certain yet, and we don't know which player will be rested, but I'm not expecting the best line-up available. Cerro Porteno started to show as a different team in the first 2 rounds of Clausura, but then came the 0-1 home defeat against Independiente, and I had to change my mind about them being the main title challengers. Still, I'm going to consider that game as an accident, and hope the players will work twice as hard to make up for the lost points. I have confidence in them tonight, as having looked at the line-up, I see some good names: Caceres, dos Santos and Fabbro in the midfield line, which looks like one of the best midfields in the league. In offense, we'll likely have Benitez and Bareiro, which also looks good (so far in this tournament, all the 5 goals were scored by Bareiro, dos Santos, Fabro or Salcedo - the 4th midfielder). Cerro are traditionally a tough oponent for Nacional, and in the last 10 games played at Defensores del Chaco, Nacional only managed to win 3, and I certainly don't see them winning today, with changes expected in the team, and with tired players following their mid-week effort. GL!

Cerro Porteno (+0.25 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 1-1, HALF WON

Nacional Asuncion - San Jose

Copa Sudamericana

Paraguay's champion of Apertura will also try to qualify to the next round of the Copa Sudamericana, and they are in a very good position, following their 0-0 draw in the heights of Oruro. The first leg was rather a boring affair, with neither team posing much of a danger for the oposition's goalkeeper. But this should change now, as Nacional is a very solid team (top 3 in Paraguay), and without help from their high altitude, San Jose could be in some deep troubles. So far in 2011, Nacional has played 26 official matches, and in addition to winning the Apertura title, they have also lost only 3 games, with Olimpia and Libertad (the other 2 powers in Paraguayan football) and a surprising 1-5 defeat at Independiente FBC. They are on a run of 7 matches without losing, including their draw in Bolivia, and a draw away at Libertad. The Bolivians aren't in very good form, as they have only won 1 out of their 4 matches in Copa Aerosur, and we all know that Bolivian teams are traditionally poor when playing as visitors in other countries. Nacional and Olimpia are the best Paraguayan teams at the moment, both in great form (Olimpia already won 2-0 at home with The Strongest), and I expect Nacional to easily follow Olimpia into the next round. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueno

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Can't say there is a lot of value in this bet, but I think that the chances of it being a losing bet are minimal. Nacional recovered well from their difficult first 2 matches (losing at home against Olimpia and drawing at Guarani), and since then they haven't lost a single game, winning 4 and drawing away at Rubio Nu. The quality of their opponents hasn't been too high, so all the victories came as a logical thing, and so it should happen today. Sportivo Luqueno is in a deep crisis, ever since 2010, when things started to go awfully wrong for them, and now they find themselves deep in the relegation battle. And with things not likely to lighten up, their only chance right now is that their relegation-rivals (Independiente, Caballero, Sol and 3 de Febrero) perform worse than them. Luqueno proved to be a tough nut to crack at their stadium, surprisingly being undefeated, but they have only won once in 4 matches, and they haven't played against any of the power-teams (only played against Rubio, 3 Febrero, Independiente and Sol). Meanwhile, as visitors they have lost all 4 games, and worth mentioning are the 0-5 trashing at Olimpia and the 2-3 loss against Tacuary. And if a defensive minded team like Tacuary can put 3 in your goal, you really need to start worrying. Class, form, organization, etc... everything points towards a Nacional win (also the head-2-head, where Nacional won the last 4 games played in Asuncion, scoring 9, and not conceding a single goal). And the worst case scenario that I can think of would be a narrow win, but I'm confident Nacional will win with something around a 3-0 score. GL!

Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.72, 5/10

Result: 0-0, LOST

Tacuary - Nacional

Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura

Not getting my hopes up for this match. With the way both teams have been performing so far, I think that the neutral supporters should consider themselves lucky to see a maximum of 2 goals. Tacuary used an ultra-defensive strategy against the two giants, Cerro and Guarani, and haven't lost any of those matches, so that probably convinced the manager to try it again with Nacional, who can be an uncomfortable team if they have space to play. So Tacuary will likely try to close all those spaces, crowding their defense, and leaving only one striker up front, in hopes of a lucky counter. Nacional will most likely be the lead act of the game, but as seen last match against Independiente, they pretty much suck at putting pressure on their opponents, as after taking the lead, they did nothing else, just sitting back and waiting for Independiente (and that almost cost them, Independiente missing a penalty in the closing minutes). So I can see the 0-0 lasting for quite a while here, and even if someone scores, the game shouldn't open up: if Nacional scores, Tacuary will have to attack, a thing that they're not really good at, while if Tacuary scores first, those few spaces they may leave will close even more. GL!

under 2.5 goals @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 0-1, WON