Independiente - El Nacional

Ecuador Serie A, Segunda Etapa

Last time we went against Independiente, and we were right... now let's see if they can deliver another win, but this time with a bet on them. Nothing changes for them in regards to their last match, as they will still be without those 3 players (mentioned them last week: gk Azcona, df Ramirez and fw Solis). But even without them, they still played a pretty solid match against Cuenca. And I expect more from them today, as they are playing at home, against a weaker opponent. At home they are still a force to be reckoned with, and El Nacional must be at their best to take something out of this game. The visitors also have an important absence, as defender Ricardo Lopez (16/0) is suspended. They are a team can surprise, and as evidence we have their victory at Barcelona from last month, but Independiente should also have a moral advantage, as they've beaten El Nacional twice this year, so let's hope they add another win under their belt. GL!

Independiente (-0.5 AH) @ 1.99, 3/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Nacional Asuncion - Independiente

Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional entered a slight negative run of form, as they have 3 consecutive matches without a win, and there are already some voices of discontent, for which I expect a bounce back tonight. First of all, in the league, they drew at home with Cerro Porteno and lost at Sportivo Luqueno, but they were using mixed squads for those matches, so those matches can be overlooked. But, they were resting the regulars for the Sudamericana clashes, and the low level showed against Aurora (1-1 at home) was the result that sparked those negative comments. But they still are one of the best Paraguayan teams, and with a full team expected to start tonight, I trust them to turn things around, and silence those who are criticizing them. Especially since Independiente are one of the lower teams from the league. It's true that they have only lost one of the 5 matches played in the Clausura, but they also have only won one game in their last 14 games (9 of those were draws), and their recent good form came mostly against teams of similar stature (won at Cerro Porteno, and that's a big surprise, but otherwise they recorded only draws against teams like Sol de America, Luqueno, etc... including a loss at General Caballero). And keep in mind that we also have the revenge factor, as Independiente caused Nacional's biggest loss in the Apertura, trashing them 5-1. So I expect a blood-thirsty Nacional tonight, going out to strike early in the match, and they should win this comfortably. GL!

Nacional (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10 

Result: 2-1, HALF WON

LDU Quito - Independiente

Copa Libertadores

The odds on LDU finally rose a bit, and now they look much more try-able than before. As I wrote about it last week, Independiente is reversing the strategy that saw them win last year's Copa Sudamericana. This time, he is saving his regulars for the Argentinian league, while making rotations in the squad for Libertadores. They were in a bad relegation position last week, and their last defeat against River put them even more in danger. This strategy helped worked for them with Penarol, but I doubt it will work again in Quito, at altitude, and against a team that comes after a series of good results. They come after 3 consecutive wins, and no one is thinking of losing the 3 points today, mainly because of 2 reasons: LDU lost in the first match, at Godoy, and another fail tonight will put them in a big risk of not qualifying in the next stage; then, there is the revenge factor, as Independiente knocked them out of last year's Copa Sudamericana. Then, LDU made a good match at home, putting themselves ahead 3-0, but a few good minutes from Independiente, and a few defensive mistakes saw the Argentinians turning the score, losing by a narrow 2-3, which was enough to see them in the next phase. For tonight, coach Bauza throws everything he has in the battle, and the important news is that striker Barcos is fit to start the match, as well as defender Caicedo, who recovered from an injury. They should win the match, quite easily I would say, and with the current odds is worth a try in my opinion. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.88, 4/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Independiente - Penarol

Copa Libertadores

Last year, Independiente was resting regulars in Apertura to have them fit for Copa Sudamericana. And that worked well, managing to win the Cup, but things went worse than expected in the league, and now El Rojo is threatened by relegation.And with the clash against also relegation-threatened River coming up, coach Mohamed switched sides. This time, he will rest some regulars in Libertadores, in order to have them fit for the league. 5 players will miss the game with Penarol: defenders Matheu and Mareque, midfielders Battion and Fredes, and their most dangerous striker, Nestor Silvera. And for those who haven't seen their last league match, against Argentinos, it was one of the worst matches to watch, with neither team managing to create danger near the opposition's area, and Independiente especially excelled in that part. No danger, practically no scoring chances, lack of ideas etc. And their absences for today certainly won't make things any better. Out of their last 10 games, only 3 went over 2 goals, and in one of them it was thanks to Velez. Penarol is likely to come to Argentina defending, as a point will surely please them, and with Independiente's inability to break defenses to easily, I'm expecting a close match, most likely played in midfield. 0-0 seems like an appealing option in my opinion, but the Argentinians could edge it 1-0 in the end. Anyway, I'm expecting goals to be kept at a minimum. GL!

under 2.5 goals @ 1.84, 4/10

Result: 3-0, LOST

Argentinos Juniors - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Both teams will have Libertadores duties next week, but neither of them will voluntarily rest any of their first team regulars. I say voluntarily, because Argentinos will still have several absences. They are having some serious problems, as two key players will miss this game: defender Escudero (suspended) and midfielder Mercier (injured). But along them, 3 more players will be unavailable: defender Basualdo (suspended), forward Vargas (injured) and midfielder Emilio Hernandez (injured, after burning his testicles with boiled water!!!). Moreover, because he has so many absences, their coach will no longer rest goalkeeper Navarro and forward Oberman, who are carrying minor injuries. Independiente will go for this match with the best they have, won't rest anyone, as they also need to worry about their relegation percentage (they're not in trouble yet, but after their disastrous Apertura, they might have some problems next year). Last performances also favor Independiente, as they drew 2-2 with Velez, after a great first half, leading 2-0 at half time, while Argentinos barely managed a late equalizer away at Huracan. Recent head-to-head is also on El Rojo's favor, losing just one of the last 10 games, and that lost game came with a lot of drama, as Independiente lead 3-1, only to lose with two goals conceded in the last 3 minutes. GL!

Independiente (+0.25 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10

Result: 0-0, HALF WON

Deportivo Quito - Independiente

Copa Libertadores

Deporitvo lost the first leg 0-2, so now they have a lot of work to do, and even so, their qualification hopes are looking dim. One thing is certain though, and it would have been certain regardless of the first leg result: Deportivo Quito are going to attack. That means a total change from last weeks' line-up, where they played with just 1 striker and went looking for a draw. The good news is that both Rodas and Perea (new signing that made history with Leon de Huanuco last year) will be starters, so that should normally be a boost for the team. They are very good players, they know each other, and should cause some havoc for the Argentinian defense. Independiente surely won't come to Quito to pose as the victim, as they showed it last year, against LDU in Sudamericana. They went 3-0 down then, but made a good and solid match before the first goal, and also had the strength to score two goals. They showed nice attitude, and I expect the same tonight, as 9 of those 11 players will play today as well. And they also have a few players that can be deadly on the counter attack, as Defederico, Silvera and Parra could cause some real damage to any team. The worst case scenario is that Independiente will score first, but I trust Deportivo Quito's power and ability to put pressure, and I'm sure we'll be seeing a few goals here. GL!

over 2.5 goals @ 2.10, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Independiente - San Lorenzo

Argentina Copa de Oro - Torneo de Verano

The first of the Summer Tournaments starts tonight, in Mar de Plata, and will see Independiente and San Lorenzo dispute the final of Copa de Oro. Even though it is just a friendly game, these matches have gained enough history to be held in high regard from most teams and their supporters, so it shouldn't be treated as just a regular preparation game. Neither of the teams will field a full force squad tonight, opting to try some less used players. Independiente will use a mixed team, but since they have won the Copa Sudamericana in 2010, they made a lot of rotations in the league. Therefore, all the players they will use tonight have already played a more or less important role in Apertura. They have played together, have some matches in their back, and I'm sure everyone will try to impress, in order to be taken into account for their Copa Libertadores campaign (which starts at the end of the month), and the Clausura. Meanwhile, San Lorenzo will also use an alternative squad, but it is reported that 6 or 7 players will be youngsters, from the lower divisions of the club. They will surely try to impress, and should be happy with the opportunity, but they shouldn't have too many chances in front of a more experienced and more solid team of Independiente. Odds are very good for the DNB, and I trust El Rojo to take this Copa de Oro. GL!

Independiente DNB @ 2.17, 4/10

Result: 2-3, LOST

Huracan - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Two teams in crisis of results will face each other tonight in Buenos Aires, and it's high time one of them wins. There is a lack of results in Primera Division for both teams, with Huracan losing their last 6 consecutive games and Independiente without a win for 7 matches, but for the Avellaneda team there is certainly not a lack of success, as they are the newly crowned champions of Copa Sudamericana, and that gives them a ticket for the preliminary round of Copa Libertadores 2011. Despite their run of 7 matches without a win, they have only lost 2 out of them, one away at surprise package All Boys, and one at home against eventual Apertura champions Estudiantes. But keep in mind, all of those matches were played with an alternative line-up, and rarely we could have seen more than 2-3 regulars, in order to rest them for Copa Sudamericana. But now, with the continental competition over, the rotation should be over, and tonight, more than half of the regulars are expected to start the game. Huracan looks hopeless at the moment, and their play seems even poorer than Gimnasia's, and I honestly don't know what they can do to turn things around. Maybe for Clausura, with a few good transfers, but Apertura is over for them. Independiente is on fire, and I expect them to bring the Sudamericana enthusiasm into this match, but I'll keep the stakes low, as the same enthusiasm could backfire on them. GL!

Independiente DNB @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Independiente - Goias

Copa Sudamericana

After a poor first leg from both teams, Goias took a probably unhoped for 2 goals advantage. Both teams were poor, Independiente failing to make any dangerous chances or putting some pressure on the hosts, while the Brazilian team scored 2 early goals and the sit back, happy with the result, despite playing with an extra man for the last half an hour, in which they decided not to press for a third goal. For the return leg, I'm expecting some things to change, as Independiente needs to attack from the start, and they are well capable of doing just that. They showed some improvements in their play ever since coach Mohamed took over the team, and they made some good matches against LDU Quito, or in the first leg against Tolima (even in the league, despite playing only with reserves, they have lost just once in the last 5 games - although they haven't won a single one of them). Goias is nothing special, and as a proof they have been relegated from the first league of Brazil. And it's traditional for Brazilian teams to face hell in Argentina, so expect a full stadium that will be against them, putting a lot of pressure. Despite the first leg loss, Independiente still have a pretty good chance of lifting the trophy, and I'm sure they'll win this game, even if it will be by a one goal margin (though I doubt it). GL!

Independiente (-0.75) @ 2.33, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

LDU Quito - Independiente

Copa Sudamericana

This bet was probably expected and predictable, but if there is one team that I fully trust at home in South America, than that team is definitely Liga de Quito. Won't start talking too much about them, as we all know the drill: very solid team, plays like a monster at home, big advantage in the high altitude, reigning champ of Sudamericana and Recopa. There are a few players doubtful for them, but all of them are having very big chances of being match-fit, so I'm pretty sure we'll be seeing them fielding their best line-up. Independiente's attitude has changed ever since El Turco Mohamed took over the team, but that surely won't be enough for them to take points in Ecuador. And if we compare them to Newell's, they are in an inferior position. Newell's are a very solid and compact team, and can strike deadly on the counter attack. But their biggest strength is their defensive discipline. A thing that Independiente lacks, as they can be opened much easier by a rampant LDU team. And despite their good result at Tolima (2-2), they had a much more complicated match in the return-leg, as the Colombians put a lot of pressure on them. The same thing will probably happen in Quito too, but LDU are obviously a class better than Deportes Tolima, and as I already said, the high altitude will prove to be an even bigger problem for Independiente. I'm expecting more than the 1-0 win recorded against Newell's last week. GL!

LDU (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 5/10

Result: 3-2, VOID

Independiente - Olimpo

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I going to keep going with the trend here, as I think another under is on the cards. Independiente will use a second team, in order to keep their regulars fresh between the 2 Sudamericana matches, as this week they played at home against Tolima, while next week they will have to make a journey to the height of Quito. So, the only sensible thing to do here is to rest all the players they can, since they have stated loud and clear that the Apertura doesn't interest them, and all their guns are pointed towards Copa Sudamericana, which leads to next year's Libertadores. Only the regular goalkeeper will be used, and that's a big plus for them, as he comes after some nice performances. Even with a second squad, I'm pretty confident they won't lose, as Olimpo simply lacks any value and class to remain in Primera, and to win away at some of the league's bigger names. They lack ideas and finishing, and also their defensive line is pretty much clueless. But Independiente with this line-up can't hope for too much either, as in the previous games where they used reserves (at All Boys and San Lorenzo), they pretty much lacked any depth in offense, despite scoring in both matches (against Boys they scored after a free-kick, while against San Lorenzo the goal came after a huge fault in attack). They will still control this match, and will probably manage to win it in the end, but can't see them past a 1-0, because it will be hard to break the crowded defense that Olimpo will probably field. GL!

under 2 goals @ 2.12, 3/10

Result: 1-1, VOID

San Lorenzo - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Independiente is the other Argentinian team that performs in the Copa Sudamericana, and we can see the consequence in the league. They have been awful so far in the league, finding themselves 3rd from bottom, but ever since coach Mohamed came to the club, there have been some visible improvements. However, away from home they have only managed to snatch one draw in 6 games, the other 5 matches ending in defeats. The big news is that after some thinking, the team will go with the B squad against San Lorenzo. Mohamed was determined to rest a few regulars, but also to field a decent team against El Ciclon, but it looks like he changed his mind overnight, and he will rest most of his regulars for the second leg against Deportes Tolima (who will also rest their regulars tonight). Sudamericana is a must for Independiente this season, as it is their only hope for playing in Libertadores next season. With this information, the odds on San Lorenzo become value, despite falling a bit in the last 2 days. El Ciclon isn't in the best form, and this should be a great opportunity for them to get back to winning ways. They will also change their defensive line from 3 defenders to 4, due to a couple of injuries, and that should give them more stability. A few changes are also expected in offense, as lately the strikers are seeming incapable of scoring, despite creating a lot of chances, but I have faith in the ability of those who will start tomorrow (most probably Menseguez and Rovira). GL!

San Lorenzo (-0.5 AH) @ 1.77, 5/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

All Boys - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Nice odds for the over here, and a low line, but that's usual in Argentinian games, as in recent years very few matches are entertaining and provide lots of goals and excitement. All Boys looks to be an exception to the typical newly-promoted or 'small' team, who only look to close the spaces and hope for a lucky counter. All Boys don't refuse to play football, that is why their attack looks good, but also their defense looks poor. However, this style made them achieve some nice high-profile results, like the 2-1 win over Estudiantes, 2-0 win over Boca, and a highly entertaining 3-3 draw with Tigre. Big props for them, in hopes that they will continue playing like this, and they should, because every point could be decisive in the aggregate points table. No important changes expected for them tonight, as they will be looking to continue with their solid home form, and make another victim.

Independiente, on the other hand, made an awful start of the season, but it looks as if the worst has passed, since a new coach - 'El Turco' Antonio Mohamed - took over, and managed to win El Clasico de Avellaneda on his debut. But, now, the main problem for them is Copa Sudamericana, where they will have to overturn a 0-1 deficit next week, and since the title is far away, same as the Libertadores qualification, Mohamed decided to put emphasis on Sudamericana. Therefore, most of the regulars will be rested tonight, as the team will suffer no less than 8 changes in comparison to last week's Clasico. This could surely add another dent in their Apertura ambitions, and All Boys looks like a team that's capable to capitalize on this. And despite home win looking like the obvious choice, I'm going for the over, as I have plenty of experience with such games, and very often the over looks better. At least now, we even have better odds for the over. GL!

over 2.25 @ 2.07, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON