Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Both teams started the season in awful fashion, but recently, at least Guarani showed signs of recovery. The numbers speak for themselves: in the last 10 games, Guarani won 5 (including games against Libertad and Olimpia), while Olimpia won only 2, against bottom teams like Cerro PF and Carapegua. It's no secret that Olimpia is knee-deep in problems, both administrative and financial, and it looks like there's no easy way out. The coach received backing from the board, having his contract extended, and the main blame is taken by the squad, which is also undergoing a renovation process. Therefore, once again, we will see on the field, from the first minute, players like Marcos Fingst (2/0), Alex Garcete (1/0) or Walter Clar (1/0). All of them are youngsters, barely breaking into the team, and I doubt they'll have what it takes to shift the balance in a derby. Guarani has the experience, in this case, so for sure they have the advantage. Also, in the previous 3 encounters between the two in 2013, Guarani won 2 and lost 1, and the goal difference over those 3 games is 9-4 in Guarani's favor. It's a Clasico, and I usually tend to stay away from these games, but this looks simply too good to skip: Olimpia plagued by problems and using youth players, Guarani in recovery of pace, and also the safe-line that the DNB provides. GL!
Guarani DNB @ 1.94, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON
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Showing posts with label Paraguay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paraguay. Show all posts
Nov 4, 2013
Nov 3, 2013
Nacional - Sp. Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
I'm expecting quite an entertaining round in Paraguay, and as a result, I fancy 3 bets today (quite a lot for my standards, but I'm feeling confident in these matches). First stop will be at Nacional - Luqueno. Both teams are in good form, although far away from the top of the table. However, both have quite a lot to play for, as both are gunning for a Sudamericana qualification (Nacional needs to finish with more points than Cerro in the aggregate table - currently 6 behind with a game in hand, while Luqueno needs to reach 6th place - 9 points behind at the moment, with 2 games in hand). Nacional has 3 consecutive wins, and that marked a recovery for them, after a very bad start. They should have some confidence back now, and normally, quality-wise, they should be no match for Luqueno. The visitors also have 3 wins from their last 4 (and 5 wins from their last 7 games), but they played a lot of home games (5) and had a relatively easy schedule (playing against bottom teams like Rubio Nu, Sol de America, Cerro PF and Carapegua - who actually beat them at home). So, in my mind, their great string of results is rather inconclusive, therefore I'm going with the quality today, especially since they should have loads of confidence now. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 2.03, 3/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Deportivo Capiata - Sp. Carapegua
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!
Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Capiata is having the season of a life-time. They are on second place for the moment, and even though they have practically zero chances to win the title (12 points behind the leaders), they are almost certain of a Sudamericana participation, and even have some chances to go to Libertadores (they are 5 points behind Guarani). So there's still a lot to play for. Also, they are one of the two teams (along with the leaders) to be still undefeated in their home games, and have won 7 of their last 10 matches. So they have a good advantage going into this match, especially since Carapegua are among the worst travelers in the league, despite a recent glimpse of good form (they won at Luqueno, drew at home against an awful Cerro PF, and won last week against a Libertad side that has it's mind on Copa Sudamericana). If we take away those last 3 games, Carapegua look simply awful, and it's no surprise seeing them rock-bottom in the relegation table. It's true that Capiata lost their last game, 2-4 at Luqueno, but they had to do without a few key players, including forwards Dionisio Perez and Fabio Escobar, which will return for this game. There should be a clear difference between these two teams, and once again, I'm going with quality and form. GL!
Capiata (-0.75 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 3-1, WON
Cerro Porteno - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!
Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
I'm taking a slight risk here, as Cerro Porteno can comfortably take it easy until the rest of the season. Having a 9-points advantage over the second pace pretty much assures them of the title, despite having to play 7 more games. But Diaz's recent form just makes me take this bet. They enjoyed an incredible run this season, but they could have never been considered one of the big teams. Discipline and will were their main advantages, and they exceed their limit by far. But recently, they went back to their original condition, as they have lost their last 3 games. The opposition wasn't from the bottom half, that's true, as they were beaten by Capiata and Guarani (both at home, Guarani actually trashing them 1-4) and away at Nacional. Clear quality difference, and that difference can only grow bigger against the leaders. As I've said, Cerro doesn't necessarily needs to win, but it will be one more step toward the title, and with Diaz in the rebound stage, it's safe to assume that the home win is a lock. GL!
Cerro (-1 AH) @ 1.92, 3/10
Result: 2-1, VOID
Oct 28, 2013
Sol de America - Cerro Porteno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Cerro Porteno are walking a perfect path towards the title. The road ahead is still long, so they can't take anything for granted yet, but with an 8-points advantage, they can take on the upcoming matches without a lot of pressure. They are undefeated and can boast with the best attack in the league. And they definitely don't want to slow down and decrease their rhythm, therefore for today's game, they will be using their best players available, and no one will be rested. That puts them in a solid position, and are rightfully favorites. However, with some very low odds for a visiting team, I'll go for the over, because Sol is a team with potential. They aren't going well at all, being 3rd from bottom, and overall they lack quality, that's no secret. But both the players and the manager are trying their best, and we've seen Sol very often employing an offensive style of football, especially when playing on their own stadium (they have the best home offense). However, that obviously leaves a lot of gaps behind, and without possessing a solid defensive lines, they are very vulnerable - they also have the second worst defense in home games. So, I expect Cerro to come here without any pressure, trying to make their usual game... Sol also has no pressure, as it is almost impossible for them to relegate, so it should be quite an entertaining match. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.88, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Oct 22, 2013
Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!
Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON
The odds movement for this match was crazy: SBO opened with 2.41, went down to 2.18 and now the odds are standing at 2.82. And what's the reason for this change? To be honest, I have no idea, and it makes little sense. To put it simple, Olimpia sucks this season... they've had plenty of problems, both financial and administrative, and they failed miserably on all fields. And all we need to do is to look at their results: 8th in the table of 12, with just 14 points (19 behind the leaders and 11 behind Capiata), with just 1 win away from home, and with only 2 victories in their last 10 games, against lowly Carapegua and rock-bottom Cerro PF. Meanwhile, Capiata is the revelation of the season, with a very solid campaign: 3rd place in the table, and undefeated at home (only a draw with the other revelation, General Diaz; other than that, straight wins). So it's very hard for me to understand these odds, and with a safe DNB, I think there's plenty of value here. GL!
Capiata DNB @ 2.12, 3/10
Result: 1-0, WON
Oct 14, 2013
Venezuela - Paraguay
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Oct 6, 2013
Nacional - Rubio Nu
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Nacional enjoyed a very slow start of this competition, after becoming Apertura champions, but right now they seem to be getting back to form, and are recovering ground. The title of Clausura is far away, as they are trailing the leaders by 11 points, but they can still very well achieve a place for Copa Sudamericana. Speaking of their recovery, they have won 4 of their last 6 games, and only lost once, against league leaders Cerro Porteno, so we can't fault them too much for that result. To be even fairer, they did have an easy schedule lately, but that definitely improved their confidence, and Rubio Nu is by no means a team that can be a threat. They are simply awful most of the times (their only performance recently was a shocking 0-2 win at Olimpia, but that's pretty much it), and in my opinion, they are one of the main relegation candidates. Still safe for the moment in the standings, but are equal on the average points with Cerro de Franco, so things could change very quickly, especially since Cerro's points count more. I'll go with the quality tonight, as I'm sure Nacional will make their lives easy. Either way, I think the current odds are a bit high for this line. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.99, 4/10
Result: 0-1, LOST
Sep 22, 2013
General Diaz - Sportivo Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!
Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
I've been wrong many times about Diaz, but they just kept on going, and are having a season of a lifetime. They are one of the two teams that are still undefeated, halfway through the season, and if they can keep this going, they have some real chances of taking a place in a continental competition. They are in awesome for, since they are undefeated - as I mentioned previously - and they also have 4 consecutive wins. The only games that they weren't able to win were against the league giants: Cerro Porteno and Libertad, and they also drew against a surprising Capiata (3rd place). Luqueno rose quickly in the table following two consecutive wins, and are now on 5th place. But I won't pay too much attention to that, because they had some easy games recently. Their only wins so far came against rock-bottom Cerro PF, against traditionally poor Rubio Nu and against Sol de America. Hard to name any of those teams 'impressive'. And if we take those last two wins away from them, Luqueno would have just 5 points and would be sitting right next to Cerro PF. And in all honesty, that is pretty much their real value. I'm not really comfortable betting on Diaz, a small team that enjoys a fantastic run, because these runs are bound to end sooner or later, but this here is more like a bet against Luqueno, one of the poorest teams in the league, and the only reason why they are not in the relegation area, is because there are two worse teams. GL!
Diaz (-0.5 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 2-1, WON
Sep 11, 2013
Paraguay - Argentina
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
Sep 7, 2013
Paraguay - Bolivia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Aug 20, 2013
General Diaz - Cerro Porteno
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Cerro Porteno may be out of Copa Sudamericana, but their schedule isn't at all more relaxed these days. They will have to face General Diaz today, and they have the SuperClasico against Olimpia during the weekend. But we have some good news, as coach Arce said he will use the best he has, in order to take the three points and to continue at the top of the standings. Diaz is a bubble that it's about to burst, and even though they managed a highly unlikely win on Friday, trashing Guarani by 3-0 on their own ground, I won't let myself get carried away, and I just can't see how their form will last. They aren't one of the better teams in the league, and even though they are enjoying a good run lately (besides the win against Guarani, they also drew with Nacional and Libertad), I'm confident it will end sooner, rather than later. Since Cerro will be using their main squad here, they should have the first chance in this match, and if we also think about the fact that they've won both matches against Diaz in the Apertura, I think we should see a repeat of those results. GL!
Cerro (-0.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Cerro Porteno may be out of Copa Sudamericana, but their schedule isn't at all more relaxed these days. They will have to face General Diaz today, and they have the SuperClasico against Olimpia during the weekend. But we have some good news, as coach Arce said he will use the best he has, in order to take the three points and to continue at the top of the standings. Diaz is a bubble that it's about to burst, and even though they managed a highly unlikely win on Friday, trashing Guarani by 3-0 on their own ground, I won't let myself get carried away, and I just can't see how their form will last. They aren't one of the better teams in the league, and even though they are enjoying a good run lately (besides the win against Guarani, they also drew with Nacional and Libertad), I'm confident it will end sooner, rather than later. Since Cerro will be using their main squad here, they should have the first chance in this match, and if we also think about the fact that they've won both matches against Diaz in the Apertura, I think we should see a repeat of those results. GL!
Cerro (-0.25 AH) @ 1.93, 3/10
Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST
Aug 18, 2013
Cerro Porteno - Sol de America
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Once Cerro Porteno signed their elimination from Copa Sudamericana, they can now fully focus on the local league, especially since a win today could see them equal on points with the leaders. Moreover, the reigning champions - Nacional, and the current leaders - Libertad, are expected to struggle with fixture congestion, since both are still engaged with the continental competition, so this could provide Cerro some breathing space. And their coach is well aware of this, and tonight he will use the best players that he has at his disposal, including those that have played on Wednesday with the national team, Oscar Romero and Fernandez. Sol de America are doing a very good campaign so far, sitting in the table just one point behind Cerro, but they've had a very favorable fixture draw. They come after two high-profile wins, 2-1 away at Nacional, and 2-0 at home with Guarani, but both teams were using their second-string teams. Other than that, they've lost at home in the first round against lowly Capiata, so that should paint a picture of their true colors. I expect Cerro to bring them down to earth, after those two high-profile wins, and since they will be fielding a full squad, this shouldn't go past a home win. GL!
Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Once Cerro Porteno signed their elimination from Copa Sudamericana, they can now fully focus on the local league, especially since a win today could see them equal on points with the leaders. Moreover, the reigning champions - Nacional, and the current leaders - Libertad, are expected to struggle with fixture congestion, since both are still engaged with the continental competition, so this could provide Cerro some breathing space. And their coach is well aware of this, and tonight he will use the best players that he has at his disposal, including those that have played on Wednesday with the national team, Oscar Romero and Fernandez. Sol de America are doing a very good campaign so far, sitting in the table just one point behind Cerro, but they've had a very favorable fixture draw. They come after two high-profile wins, 2-1 away at Nacional, and 2-0 at home with Guarani, but both teams were using their second-string teams. Other than that, they've lost at home in the first round against lowly Capiata, so that should paint a picture of their true colors. I expect Cerro to bring them down to earth, after those two high-profile wins, and since they will be fielding a full squad, this shouldn't go past a home win. GL!
Cerro (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 3/10
Result: 2-0, WON
Aug 17, 2013
Guarani - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Guarani found it hard recently in the league, mainly due to their matches in Copa Sudamericana, which forced them to apply some squad rotations in the league. That's why they are still without a win in this tournament, after 3 rounds, and are sharing the last place in the standings with Nacional and Rubio Nu. It's quite an unacceptable situation for them, and the coach thinks the same. That is why it is expected that they will be fielding their best available squad tonight, without resting anyone in expectancy of their Libertadores match from next week, against Atletico Nacional. And if that happens, I give them the first option to take a win tonight, and it should be a rather easy win. General Diaz are nothing special, and despite being undefeated in Clausura, they have only recorded draws so far. If you look at the names, it may appear as quite a performance, but Libertad are reconstructing their team, Capiata is a very poor team, while Nacional was resting almost their entire squad. It should be a different affair now, if Guarani won't hold anything back, and even though Diaz won the first match played this year, I just don't see them making a repeat of that performance. GL!
Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-3, LOST
Guarani found it hard recently in the league, mainly due to their matches in Copa Sudamericana, which forced them to apply some squad rotations in the league. That's why they are still without a win in this tournament, after 3 rounds, and are sharing the last place in the standings with Nacional and Rubio Nu. It's quite an unacceptable situation for them, and the coach thinks the same. That is why it is expected that they will be fielding their best available squad tonight, without resting anyone in expectancy of their Libertadores match from next week, against Atletico Nacional. And if that happens, I give them the first option to take a win tonight, and it should be a rather easy win. General Diaz are nothing special, and despite being undefeated in Clausura, they have only recorded draws so far. If you look at the names, it may appear as quite a performance, but Libertad are reconstructing their team, Capiata is a very poor team, while Nacional was resting almost their entire squad. It should be a different affair now, if Guarani won't hold anything back, and even though Diaz won the first match played this year, I just don't see them making a repeat of that performance. GL!
Guarani (-0.5 AH) @ 2.00, 3/10
Result: 0-3, LOST
Aug 11, 2013
General Diaz - Nacional
Paraguay Primera Division, Clausura
Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!
Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Nacional of Asuncion achieved a great feat this week, as they qualified for the second round of Copa Sudamericana, and they've done so in great fashion, by snatching a point in the altitude of Bolivia, a place where only a few low-land teams come out alive from. Now they will have to return to their local league, and obviously, some players may not be at their best when it comes to fitness. So, a few players won't even be taken into account for this match, and the biggest loss will be forward Julian Benitez, who scored 13 goals in 17 matches. In the game's squad, there are still several regulars, but I doubt we will see much action from them, and mostly an alternative squad is expected, and I'm also not expecting the best from the players that also played a very tiring match in Bolivia. And if we are to estimate the value of Nacional's alternative squad, we can note their defeat last week, at home, against Sol de America. General Diaz are not a good team, far from that, but they can pull off some nice results from time to time, like 2 consecutive home draws with Libertad last month. They are well motivated, so it will be just a case of what team Nacional will field, and how the players will cope. But in such a case, I think it would be worthwhile trying a bet on the hosts. GL!
Diaz (+0.5 AH) @ 1.91, 3/10
Result: 0-0, WON
Jun 23, 2013
Deportivo Capiata - Olimpia
Paraguay Primera Division
Olimpia's
coach has made it official, announcing that for what's left of the
season, he will use a completely alternative squad, in order to keep the
regulars fresh and fit for the Copa Libertadore's semi-final against
Santa Fe. They have nothing to play for in the league anyway, since
Nacional have already been crowned as champions a few rounds ago. The
only thing left for them to play for is Copa Libertadores, therefore in
the remaining two league rounds, we will be seeing a completely
different team, consisting mainly of fringe reserve players mixed with a
handful of youngsters. They're record in the league isn't great,
especially away from home, where they are on 3-5-2 and a 10-11 goal
difference. Capiata doesn't have any immediate objectives either, but
I'm sure they'll play with fire for a few reasons. First of all, they
are a small team, so any win/performance against one of the giants would
be enough reasons to celebrate.
Besides, they've already beaten Olimpia in their previous match, 3-2 as
visitors, so a repeat of that performance would be something to
remember. They also need to gather as many points as possible to make
sure they won't get caught in the relegation battle, so I'm going for
the minnows today. GL!
Capiata (+0.25 AH) @ 1.77, 4/10
Result: 1-1, HALF WON
Result: 1-1, HALF WON
May 6, 2013
Olimpia - Sportivo Luqueno
Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
Olimpia had an awful start of the season, but in early March, everything appeared to be getting back on track, with wins against Cerro Porteno and Cerro de Franco, and also a draw away at Libertad. But everything went to waste after two consecutive defeats against Capiata and Sol de America. Of course, their Libertadores campaign is also taking it's toll, but to be on 10th place halfway through the competition is unacceptable for a club like Olimpia. But this should also motivate them for this match, as this is their best chance to climb positions. They have a free schedule next week, so all the regulars will play tonight, focusing solely on this match. Salgueiro and Bareiro will be in charge of Olimpia's defense, and at least from Bareiro, I am expecting a lot. And as I was saying, against Luqueno they have their best bet to get back to winning ways, as Luqueno are simply the worst team in the league. In 11 games they barely managed 6 points (with one win), and they were only able to score 3 goals, while conceding 12. Olimpia pounds them every time they play at home, and I have no doubts that they'll record another win today. GL!
Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 4-3, VOID
Olimpia had an awful start of the season, but in early March, everything appeared to be getting back on track, with wins against Cerro Porteno and Cerro de Franco, and also a draw away at Libertad. But everything went to waste after two consecutive defeats against Capiata and Sol de America. Of course, their Libertadores campaign is also taking it's toll, but to be on 10th place halfway through the competition is unacceptable for a club like Olimpia. But this should also motivate them for this match, as this is their best chance to climb positions. They have a free schedule next week, so all the regulars will play tonight, focusing solely on this match. Salgueiro and Bareiro will be in charge of Olimpia's defense, and at least from Bareiro, I am expecting a lot. And as I was saying, against Luqueno they have their best bet to get back to winning ways, as Luqueno are simply the worst team in the league. In 11 games they barely managed 6 points (with one win), and they were only able to score 3 goals, while conceding 12. Olimpia pounds them every time they play at home, and I have no doubts that they'll record another win today. GL!
Olimpia (-1 AH) @ 2.06, 3/10
Result: 4-3, VOID
Apr 14, 2013
Nacional -Rubio Nu
Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
Quite a low line set-up for Nacional here, as if we look at their current form, we could have expected something like -1.25. And the odds are pretty decent too. Nacional haven't lost for 6 games, and had 5 consecutive wins before last week's 0-0 draw, away at 4th plac Guarani. During this run, some clear victories against Olimpia and Libertad propelled Nacional towards the top of the table, as they currently hold a 3-point advantage over second placed General Diaz. Rubio Nu is struggling at the moment, as after their first-round victory they weren't able to add another 3 points. No win since the beginning of February, home defeats against Capiata and Luqueno, and awful morale took it's toll on the team, despite some hard fought draws with Olimpia and Guarani. Regarding team news, Nacional will welcome back forward Julian Benitez (6 goals in 5 matches), who was absent against Guarani. Offensive midfielder Gustavo Cristaldo (2/1) could also make a return, but his fitness is still a doubt at this moment. So, great form for Nacional (who will be trying to extend their advantage at the top), awful performances from Rubio Nu, along with the return of Nacional's top scorer... we should have a clear home win here. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Quite a low line set-up for Nacional here, as if we look at their current form, we could have expected something like -1.25. And the odds are pretty decent too. Nacional haven't lost for 6 games, and had 5 consecutive wins before last week's 0-0 draw, away at 4th plac Guarani. During this run, some clear victories against Olimpia and Libertad propelled Nacional towards the top of the table, as they currently hold a 3-point advantage over second placed General Diaz. Rubio Nu is struggling at the moment, as after their first-round victory they weren't able to add another 3 points. No win since the beginning of February, home defeats against Capiata and Luqueno, and awful morale took it's toll on the team, despite some hard fought draws with Olimpia and Guarani. Regarding team news, Nacional will welcome back forward Julian Benitez (6 goals in 5 matches), who was absent against Guarani. Offensive midfielder Gustavo Cristaldo (2/1) could also make a return, but his fitness is still a doubt at this moment. So, great form for Nacional (who will be trying to extend their advantage at the top), awful performances from Rubio Nu, along with the return of Nacional's top scorer... we should have a clear home win here. GL!
Nacional (-1 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Apr 8, 2013
Olimpia - Cerro Porteno PF
Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
Despite a poor domestic campaign, Olimpia is having a great performance in Copa Libertadores, where they are currently topping a group with Newell's and U de Chile, and are already qualified. They did go through a tough match just a few weeks ago, recording a 1-0 win in Chile, so the manager has decided to give a rest to most of his key players. Therefore, tonight we'll see an Olimpia side with very few regulars, and a lot of reserve players. So the current odds seem to be off by quite a bit, and they would have been exaggerated even if Olimpia would have used their best squad. I was talking about their poor performances in the league, as they have only won 2 games from the 7 they played (much to their credit, those two wins came against Cerro Porteno and Guarani). But when you draw with Rubio Nu, Luqueno and Carapegua, and lost at home against General Diaz, there's definitely room for improvement. Cerro de Franco also has 2 wins so far, but their general results are slightly better, as they drew at Libertad last week, and in February they defeated league leaders Nacional by 5-2. Another interesting thing is that ever since their promotion, they have drawn all of their matches against Olimpia, so that gives me even more confidence that they won't lose today against an alternative team... and even if they do, they should at least keep it tight. GL!
Cerro (+1 AH) @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Despite a poor domestic campaign, Olimpia is having a great performance in Copa Libertadores, where they are currently topping a group with Newell's and U de Chile, and are already qualified. They did go through a tough match just a few weeks ago, recording a 1-0 win in Chile, so the manager has decided to give a rest to most of his key players. Therefore, tonight we'll see an Olimpia side with very few regulars, and a lot of reserve players. So the current odds seem to be off by quite a bit, and they would have been exaggerated even if Olimpia would have used their best squad. I was talking about their poor performances in the league, as they have only won 2 games from the 7 they played (much to their credit, those two wins came against Cerro Porteno and Guarani). But when you draw with Rubio Nu, Luqueno and Carapegua, and lost at home against General Diaz, there's definitely room for improvement. Cerro de Franco also has 2 wins so far, but their general results are slightly better, as they drew at Libertad last week, and in February they defeated league leaders Nacional by 5-2. Another interesting thing is that ever since their promotion, they have drawn all of their matches against Olimpia, so that gives me even more confidence that they won't lose today against an alternative team... and even if they do, they should at least keep it tight. GL!
Cerro (+1 AH) @ 1.98, 3/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
Mar 24, 2013
Nacional Asuncion - General Diaz
Paraguay Primera Division, Apertura
I'm sure we would have had much lower odds if this match would have been played in the first round of the championship... but after an impressive start from General Diaz, the bookies are overreacting, thus giving us some nice odds. I'm not denying General Diaz's merits here, as it is an extraordinary feat to have 6 consecutive wins after their promotion to the top division, and to see among those wins some high-profile results like 1-0 as visitors against Olimpia and Guarani. However, this form won't be lasting forever, and they are bound to go on a downward trend soon. And Nacional looks like the best team to end this run for them. They are on second place, 3 points behind Diaz, with5 out of 6 wins. Besides the shameful defeat at Cerro de Franco (2-5), they also have some good wins, like the 1-0 against Libertad, and the morale boosting 3-0 win against Olimpia. They will definitely miss Silvio Torrales, who is on international duty, but other than that, they shouldn't have too many squad problems. General Diaz certainly won't be pushovers here, but with a solid team, good form and also with the home advantage, Nacional should take this. GL!
Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
I'm sure we would have had much lower odds if this match would have been played in the first round of the championship... but after an impressive start from General Diaz, the bookies are overreacting, thus giving us some nice odds. I'm not denying General Diaz's merits here, as it is an extraordinary feat to have 6 consecutive wins after their promotion to the top division, and to see among those wins some high-profile results like 1-0 as visitors against Olimpia and Guarani. However, this form won't be lasting forever, and they are bound to go on a downward trend soon. And Nacional looks like the best team to end this run for them. They are on second place, 3 points behind Diaz, with5 out of 6 wins. Besides the shameful defeat at Cerro de Franco (2-5), they also have some good wins, like the 1-0 against Libertad, and the morale boosting 3-0 win against Olimpia. They will definitely miss Silvio Torrales, who is on international duty, but other than that, they shouldn't have too many squad problems. General Diaz certainly won't be pushovers here, but with a solid team, good form and also with the home advantage, Nacional should take this. GL!
Nacional (-0.5 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, WON
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