World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
The last day of the World Cup qualifiers is upon us, and if we look at it realistically, Uruguay needs a real miracle to achieve a direct qualification. Let's look at the facts: we all know the fixing theory that circulates, involving Chile and Ecuador in a draw that would seal direct qualification for both of them, and if that's the case, Uruguay has no chance. And a draw in Chile is, of course, very much on the cards. And even if one of them wins, they need to do it big, same as Uruguay needs a big win against Argentina. But, there's more to this match: Argentina will be using a mostly-reserves team, as they won't be counting on Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Gago or Mascherano. So they will have to cope without a handful of world class players, while at the same time Uruguay will be at full force (Cavani and Suarez will lead the attack). Even if they won't achieve a direct qualification, for Uruguay this is a derby, and it would indeed be shameful to lose on their own ground against a B squad of Argentina. A win here will bring the players a morale boost, and will leave them in good mood for the play-offs. I believe Uruguay will take the match seriously, and will fight until the very end. And this means that besides going for the victory, they should be also going for the goal difference. Despite the odds having dropped quite a bit, I still think both the home win and the over are solid bets, and I'm going to go against my rule and take two bets on the same match. GL!
Uruguay (-0.5) @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
over 2.5 goals @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON
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Showing posts with label CONMEBOL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CONMEBOL. Show all posts
Oct 16, 2013
Oct 14, 2013
Venezuela - Paraguay
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Paraguay's torment in these qualification session is almost over, as they only have 2 matches remaining. First up is a trip to Venezuela, where Paraguay have nothing but pride to play for. And this fixture is going bad before even starting, as the players lost a lot of time during (and before) the flight, as there were some technical problems both with the plane and with the airport from the destination. So the resting time will be far from optimal, and since I already doubt their motivation, they will be far from their best. They will be using a lot of experienced players, but the squad is very thin... if anything happens to one of their regulars, they are in even deeper problems (in defense, 3 of 7 players are debutants, and 2 others have below 5 selections; only 3 out of 8 midfielders have more than 10 caps). So I'm expecting rather a shaky team from midfield down. Venezuela have pretty much a full squad, and motivation should be at the top. Their chances of qualification are very slim, and I really doubt they'll pull off a miracle (Uruguay need to lose both of their matches), but I fancy Venezuela's chances today. GL!
Venezuela (-0.5 AH) @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST
Sep 11, 2013
Paraguay - Argentina
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!
Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON
Uruguay - Colombia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST
This one is far from being a crucial match for any of the teams, but it will definitely impact the standings. Colombia is tied on first place with Argentina, so that would mean that a win today, even though it's improbable, would see them qualify mathematically to the World Cup. Even if they lose, they would still sit in a comfortable position, as - worst case scenario - they would still hold a 4 points-advantage, with 2 rounds remaining. For Uruguay this match is much more important, as Venezuela could reach them if they lose, and would just up the pressure for the last 2 rounds, while if they win, they would pretty much clinch the play-off place, and could even challenge a direct qualification. It's a pity that their home-slumps against Venezuela, Ecuador and Paraguay make them rather unreliable. And that's why I'm going for goals here, because both teams have huge offensive potential. Uruguay scored 15 goals in 6 home matches, 4th best home attack, but keep in mind that they also have one game in hand on the others, so that could very well change tonight. Forlan, Suarez and Cavani need no introduction, as they are one of the most feared offensive trios in the world. The Colombians haven't been so generous with the away goals, in average scoring just one/match, but they also have a lot of potential, with players like: Freddy Guarin, Falcao or Jackson Martinez. 7 out of their last 10 mutual games ended with at least 3 goals, and since Uruguay needs to step it up a notch, we have good chances of seeing an entertaining game again. GL!
over 2.25 goals @ 1.98, 4/10
Result: 2-0, HALF-LOST
Sep 7, 2013
Paraguay - Bolivia
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Both teams have prett much minimal chances of qualifying for the next round, and this can be seen in the squads that have been called-up for the match, as both coaches are trying to bring at the front the new generation of football players. Bolivia are 6 points behind the play-off position, but they also have one extra-match played, so their chances are practically zero. That's why they chose to call a lot of young and inexperienced players. There are just a few players with a nice national record (just 10 players with at least 10 caps), and we can even see 5 players with 0 international caps. Meanwhile, Paraguay are surprisingly last in the standings, 2 points behind Bolivia (but with a game in hand), and 8 points behind the place that gives them a play-off chance. They have also given up on their chances, and if we look at their squad, we can see a lot of big names being absent (Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66). They also have 6 debutantes in their squad. However, overall, they still have the quality advantage here, as they have several players based outside of Paraguay, and most of the other players are based on the front-runners Olimpia, Libertad and Cerro Porteno. This comes in contrast with the Bolivian squad, that only features 5 players based in foreign leagues, so the quality advantage should be clear on the hosts here. GL!
Paraguay (-1.25 AH) @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 4-0, WON
Colombia - Ecuador
World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers
Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Despite the fact that there are 4 rounds remaining, Colombia and Ecuador are all but qualified, as they are 7 and 5 points above 6th place Venezuela, and both have a game in hand. Of course, surprises are bound to happen, but I doubt any of the bottom half teams have enough strength to recover such a deficit. With a win here, Colombia could actually tie Argentina on points for the first spot, giving them a good shot at winning the entire group. And they certainly have what it takes, as they are in great form, especially when playing on their home ground. After the initial hick-ups with Venezuela (1-1) and Argentina (1-2), the Colombians went on to have 4 straight wins at home, covering the handicap in all of them (including a 4-0 trashing of Uruguay). Full squad for them, without any important absences, so everything is set for another win, against one of the poorest travelers on the continent. Yes, despite their impressive results, Ecuador haven't managed to win a single game outside their country, and after 5 games on the road, they only have 2 points, one more than the bottom Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Don't really see how that could change, as Colombia have proved to be one of the toughest opponents in this qualifiers, and even though Ecuador is at full strength, they should be falling short in yet another trip. GL!
Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.86, 4/10
Result: 1-0, VOID
Mar 26, 2013
Bolivia - Argentina
CONMEBOL, World Cup 2014, Qualifiers
Confederation leaders Argentina are travelling to Bolivia, in what is expected to be a very tricky match. No need to mention the high altitude again (3600 meters), and the faster movement of the ball, as everybody is familiar with that. And as I've said many times before, the Bolivian teams employ an offensive style of play when acting as hosts, trying to capitalize on the advantage provided by the altitude. But besides that, they also enjoy a different advantage, as the big teams are usually resting star players, either to keep them fit for the next match, or not to enter into a conflict with the parent clubs. And Argentina will make no exception here: although no official line-up has been confirmed, it looks like only Messi, Mascherano, Romero and Di Maria will start the match. The rest is unknown, but it is highly expected that some reserve players will take the field. Of course, Argentina has plenty of quality even among the reserves, but since none of them are accustomed to playing in such conditions, it's going to be hard. And even their star players (Messi, Di Maria) will have a hard time to cope with the altitude. Last match that took place in Bolivia between these two sides ended in 6-1 for the hosts. We certainly won't see the same score now, as Maradona is no longer the coach, but Bolivia has some good chances not to lose. GL!
Bolivia (+0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Confederation leaders Argentina are travelling to Bolivia, in what is expected to be a very tricky match. No need to mention the high altitude again (3600 meters), and the faster movement of the ball, as everybody is familiar with that. And as I've said many times before, the Bolivian teams employ an offensive style of play when acting as hosts, trying to capitalize on the advantage provided by the altitude. But besides that, they also enjoy a different advantage, as the big teams are usually resting star players, either to keep them fit for the next match, or not to enter into a conflict with the parent clubs. And Argentina will make no exception here: although no official line-up has been confirmed, it looks like only Messi, Mascherano, Romero and Di Maria will start the match. The rest is unknown, but it is highly expected that some reserve players will take the field. Of course, Argentina has plenty of quality even among the reserves, but since none of them are accustomed to playing in such conditions, it's going to be hard. And even their star players (Messi, Di Maria) will have a hard time to cope with the altitude. Last match that took place in Bolivia between these two sides ended in 6-1 for the hosts. We certainly won't see the same score now, as Maradona is no longer the coach, but Bolivia has some good chances not to lose. GL!
Bolivia (+0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON
Aug 23, 2012
U de Chile - Santos
Recopa Sudamericana 2012
When you see this two team playing against each other, you can only think of one thing: goals! Even though U de Chile has slightly changed compared to the last season, they are still adepts of the same style of play, which means attacking play. They always try to press and to get the ball forward, and their counter attacks are also deadly. That's why it comes as no surprise that in the local league they have the best offense, with 44 goals scored in 17 matches, 13 goals more than the team with the second best offense. And while we can not compare Chilean teams with Santos, the Brazilian defense is not brilliant either, so they might allow some goals tonight. Santos is playing usually a bit more defensively, but with their defense, that's not making a lot of difference. That why we can see they recorded overs in their last 6 matches, and in 5 of them both teams scored. The thing with them is that they have excellent individual players, who can scored from basically nothing: Neymar, Ganso, Miralles, etc. So I expect both teams to continue with their recent trends, and normally, this match should be overish, with both teams getting on the score sheet. GL!
over 2.5 goals @ 1.92, 5/10
Result: 0-0, LOST
Nov 16, 2011
Ecuador - Peru
CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers
Ecuador is set as a pretty big favorite for this match, and if anyone is wondering why... well, I have no idea. They aren't impressive, they haven't improved recently, and don't let their recent good form fool you. Beating Costa Rica and Jamaica is some friendlies doesn't mean too much, especially if they play in Ecuador, while their 2-0 win over Venezuela in the qualifiers also has little meaning, since La Vinotinto used mainly a second squad for that match. The high altitude from Quito could be their only advantage, but I suppose Peru knows how to counter that threat. Besides the obvious improvement for the Peruvians (including here a fantastic Copa America campaign, where they took 3rd place), they also had close to a week to prepare this match, since they had a bye during the weekend. And most of that time was spent in Arequipa (2300 meters of altitude), in order to get the players used with the altitude, and the training reports are encouraging. 'The Fantastic Four' are expected to start this match (Guerrero, Pizarro, Farfan and Vargas), and I'm sure they'll put up a decent fight. This +1 handicap is crazy in my opinion, and gives us breathing space even in case of an unlikely home win. GL!
Peru (+1 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 2-0, LOST
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