Uruguay - Argentina

World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers

The last day of the World Cup qualifiers is upon us, and if we look at it realistically, Uruguay needs a real miracle to achieve a direct qualification. Let's look at the facts: we all know the fixing theory that circulates, involving Chile and Ecuador in a draw that would seal direct qualification for both of them, and if that's the case, Uruguay has no chance. And a draw in Chile is, of course, very much on the cards. And even if one of them wins, they need to do it big, same as Uruguay needs a big win against Argentina. But, there's more to this match: Argentina will be using a mostly-reserves team, as they won't be counting on Messi, Aguero, Higuain, Gago or Mascherano. So they will have to cope without a handful of world class players, while at the same time Uruguay will be at full force (Cavani and Suarez will lead the attack). Even if they won't achieve a direct qualification, for Uruguay this is a derby, and it would indeed be shameful to lose on their own ground against a B squad of Argentina. A win here will bring the players a morale boost, and will leave them in good mood for the play-offs. I believe Uruguay will take the match seriously, and will fight until the very end. And this means that besides going for the victory, they should be also going for the goal difference. Despite the odds having dropped quite a bit, I still think both the home win and the over are solid bets, and I'm going to go against my rule and take two bets on the same match. GL!

Uruguay (-0.5) @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON

over 2.5 goals @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 3-2, WON

Paraguay - Argentina

World Cup 2014, CONMEBOL Qualifiers

With 3 rounds remaining in the South American qualifiers, Argentina are tied on points for the first place with Colombia. However, they have basically secured their qualification to the World Cup, as they are 7 points ahead of the play-off position, and it is impossible for them to drop so many places. So the only thing left is to play the remaining games and to try and win the group. No pressure for them probably, and they definitely have the players to achieve this. For this current squad, the only notable absences are of Javier Mascherano and Gonzalo Higuain. Otherwise, all the stars are there, and their attack is set to shine once again (they have the best offense in the group), with Messi, Aguero and Lavezzi ready for work. On the other side we have a weak Paraguay side, 8 points behind the play-off spot, so they are virtually eliminated from the race. We've talked about them in the previous bet, against Bolivia, and I've mentioned there that they are using quite a young and inexperienced side, without many of their key players (I will copy/paste the list from the previous analisys: "Justo Villar - 101 caps, Alcaraz - 24, Dario Veron - 51, Victor Caceres - 52, Julio dos Santos - 33, Oscar Cardozo - 47 or Haedo Valdez - 66"). They did manage a good trashing of Bolivia, but 'La Verde' was in a similar situation. Can't see past Argentina here, as the quality and the experience should prevail. GL!

Argentina (-0.75 AH) @ 2.04, 4/10
Result: 2-5, WON

Bolivia - Argentina

CONMEBOL, World Cup 2014, Qualifiers

Confederation leaders Argentina are travelling to Bolivia, in what is expected to be a very tricky match. No need to mention the high altitude again (3600 meters), and the faster movement of the ball, as everybody is familiar with that. And as I've said many times before, the Bolivian teams employ an offensive style of play when acting as hosts, trying to capitalize on the advantage provided by the altitude. But besides that, they also enjoy a different advantage, as the big teams are usually resting star players, either to keep them fit for the next match, or not to enter into a conflict with the parent clubs. And Argentina will make no exception here: although no official line-up has been confirmed, it looks like only Messi, Mascherano, Romero and Di Maria will start the match. The rest is unknown, but it is highly expected that some reserve players will take the field. Of course, Argentina has plenty of quality even among the reserves, but since none of them are accustomed to playing in such conditions, it's going to be hard. And even their star players (Messi, Di Maria) will have a hard time to cope with the altitude. Last match that took place in Bolivia between these two sides ended in 6-1 for the hosts. We certainly won't see the same score now, as Maradona is no longer the coach, but Bolivia has some good chances not to lose. GL!

Bolivia (+0.75 AH) @ 1.89, 5/10
Result: 1-1, WON

Saudi Arabia - Argentina

International Friendly

Some rest today, for the national teams, as they take on some friendly matches, probably with the objective of finishing the year with high spirits. So without anything at stake, all teams should play relaxed without any pressure. Argentina will test some players, but we still have a solid basis in the team: up-front, we'll see Aguero and Messi, so that should be enough to scare any opponents (especially since Messi started to perform with the national team). And they shouldn't be isolated there either, as on the wings we'll see Di Maria and Salvio. The defensive line might look a bit weak, but since they're playing against Saudi Arabia (who lost 0-5 against Spain, and also lost against Gabon, Libya and Irak), I wouldn't worry too much. Frank Rijkaard is their coach, so that's a plus, but it really doesn't matter who the coach is... they simply lack enough quality to be competitive on the field. Argentina looks in good shape, and will field a good team, so they shouldn't have any difficulties in putting a few goals past Saudi Arabia. GL!

Argentina (-2 AH) @ 1.89, 2/10
Result: 0-0, LOST

Argentina - Uruguay

World Cup 2014 Qualifiers

The two most offensive teams on the continent will face each other tonight, so it is only normal to think it will be a goal-fest. And we just have to look at the amount of quality that we have on the pitch... Argentina will use 4 offensive players, with Higuain, Messi, Aguero and Di Maria. All of them are top class players, and we can always expect some magic coming from them. On the other hand, Uruguay might change a bit from their usual system, in order to try and stop the Argentinian attack, so we will probably see Cavani with a slightly more defensive position. Even so, up-front we'll see Forlan and Suarez, and they are also capable of great things. And a more defensive system shouldn't put anyone off, as they should have plenty of chances on the counter-attacks, especially since the Argentinian defenders could be easily overcome by some skilled and experienced forwards, and also because Uruguay should be able to find lots of spaces for some quick counters. Hopefully, all the hype surrounding this match will materialize, and we will be able to see an exciting match, and also make some profit out of it. GL!

over 3 goals @ 2.08, 4/10
Result: 3-0, VOID

Racing Club - Estudiantes

Argentina, Torneo de Verano

The Argentinian Torneos de Verano are about to start, and this is always an entertaining moment for the supporters. The teams, however, all have different objectives. Some of them want to test some young players that don't usually have the chance to play too much, while other teams think about the fans, and want to give them some joy in the summer time. And for this match we have exactly such teams. Estudiantes finished a poor Apertura tournament, so apparently giving their best in some friendly matches isn't their top priority. They have selected only 18 players for this match, most of them from the second and the youth squad, with only 4 players from the first squad (Nelson Benitez, Leandro Benitez, Matias Sanchez and Dominguez). Meanwhile, Racing looks more interested in winning this match, so they have called-up on 20 players, most of them being regulars. And from what looks like it will be the starting 11, we can see a very strong offensive trio, with Hauche and Teofilo Gutierrez up front, supported by the skilfull Giovanni Moreno. Sensible difference in quality between these two teams, and I feel the win should go to Racing. GL!

Racing (-0.25) @ 1.84, 2/10

Result: 1-1, HALF-LOST 

Argentina - Uruguay

Copa America

Don't think the odds will change too much anymore for this match, and even though the odds on the handicap have dropped, I still find this bet as being a very solid one. Argentina didn't show anything at all in the group stage, thus the draws with Bolivia and Colombia (in a match that they could have easily lost, the Colombians missing some very clear chances). The only good match for them was in the last round, 3-0 with Costa Rica, but keep in mind that the Central Americans were using their U-23 squad. The difference in class was huge, so it was really a no-sweat win for the hosts. But now, things will be totally different. Uruguay is one of the best teams in South America (best performance at last year's World Cup, where they took 4th place), and are a team that can beat anyone in their day. It's true, they also weren't at the top of their game in the group, but I expect them to raise their profile a bit now. The main problem for them was the finishing... had a ton of chances against Mexico, but only managed to convert one. But the attack can only get better, as they have pure quality players up-front, and they can deliver when they need it. Argentina honestly doesn't scare anyone anymore, and this is more like a bet against them, rather than a bet on Uruguay. This match has some nice chances for a surprise, as I expect Uruguay to qualify for the semi-finals, but I'm taking the safe road, and taking this +1 handicap. GL!

Uruguay (+1 AH) @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 1-1, WON

Argentina - Costa Rica

Copa America

I stood away from Argentina so far, and my original plan was to do so for the entire tournament. But honestly, I don't see them failing again against this young Costa Rica team. Yes, they've let down their supporters in the first two games, against Bolivia (1-1) and Colombia (0-0, but they could have easily lost), and they are looking far from being a team. No tactical plans, no ideas, they are just relying on Messi to spark something... but Messi is a big zero whenever he plays for the national team (probably because Xavi and Iniesta are no longer behind him, and Mascherano and the others don't have the same effect). But... they are in a very fragile position now, with just 2 points, so a win here is a must, otherwise the qualification to the quarter-finals will be out of their hands, and pretty much impossible to obtain. And we can't say Costa Rica is more of a team either. A lot of young players, from the local league, and despite their huge surprise win against Bolivia (also facilitated by a retarded performance from the Bolivians, along 2 red cards), I don't see them standing a chance against the hosts of the tournament (who could also get some help from the referees, if need be). And if you compare some of the players, like Costa, Calvo and Duarte (Costa Rican defenders) with Tevez, Aguero and Lavezzi, the outcome should be pretty obvious. Let's hope logic will prevail this time. GL!

Argentina (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Argentina - Venezuela

International Friendly Match

This will be the first match for these 2 National teams, as part of their Copa America preparation. Argentina is set as high favorite, but just a quick look at their roster would make anyone change it's mind. This is barely even a B team... more like a C team, with all the called-up players performing in the local league, and 3 quarters of these players are debutant with the national team. The 'most experienced' player in the squad is defender Luciano Monzon, from Boca, with 4 appearances for the team, and he is also the only one with more than 1 selection. Now, if we look from what teams they come from, we see big names: Boca, Independiente, Velez, etc. But with none of these teams impressing in the league (Boca and Independiente have actually been awful recently), and with the players likely tired and with their minds somewhere else, I don't think we'll see much determination, although this could be their chance to catch the squad for Copa America. Anyway, manager Batista will probably just want to see how his players act, not expecting any magic, since this will be the first time they perform together. Some last-minute injuries (Julian Velasquez - DF from Independiente, Franco Razzotti - MF from Velez, Martinez - FW from Velez) have also left them with just 19 players, and with only 2 pure strikers: Defederico and Mouche, both with poor performances recently. Venezuela will bring a more experienced team, with most of their regulars, and I expect them to give a decent fight. And I also expect it to be hard for Argentina to score, as they will lack any individual talents like Messi, Tevez, Aguero, etc, and group unity should also be flawed. GL!

Venezuela (+1.5 AH) @ 1.88, 4/10

Result: 4-1, LOST

Velez Sarsfield - Boca Juniors

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Nice to see such nice odds against Boca, especially when playing against a team like Velez. Today's hosts might be in bad shape lately, being still winless in the league after 3 rounds, in which they drew with Independiente and Argentinos Juniors, and lost at home to All Boys. Last match was played in Libertadores, and they somehow managed to squander a 3-1 lead and lose the match (they were playing with one man less since 3-1, but still, it's not easy to concede 3 goals in the last 15 minutes). That is why coach Gareca won't try anything funny tonight, won't make rotations in the team, and will throw all he's got, in order to end their bad run, and to record a high-profile win against Boca. Top scorer Santiago Silva looks to be 100% fit, and will start from the first minute, providing a huge boost for the team, and completing the offensive formation that Gareca has prepared, with Silva and Martinez up-front, supported by Ramirez and Moralez. Boca is a team that you don't know what to expect from it... very unstable and irregular. First they get trashed at home by Godoy Cruz (1-4) after showing some horrible defending, than they win 1-0 away at an in-form Racing, just to draw at home against All Boys, who are a good team, but not excelling away from home. Riquelme still not playing, due to a coach decision, and while I don't think they are poorer without him, morale will certainly be a bit lower... plus, they eliminate a danger at set pieces. I think this match will be all up to Velez. If they can recover their game and keep their heads cool, they shouldn't have a problem, and since I was expecting odds around 1.75-1.80, the current odds are too good to miss. GL!

Velez (-0.5 AH) @ 2.14, 4/10

Result: 1-0, WON

Argentinos Juniors - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Both teams will have Libertadores duties next week, but neither of them will voluntarily rest any of their first team regulars. I say voluntarily, because Argentinos will still have several absences. They are having some serious problems, as two key players will miss this game: defender Escudero (suspended) and midfielder Mercier (injured). But along them, 3 more players will be unavailable: defender Basualdo (suspended), forward Vargas (injured) and midfielder Emilio Hernandez (injured, after burning his testicles with boiled water!!!). Moreover, because he has so many absences, their coach will no longer rest goalkeeper Navarro and forward Oberman, who are carrying minor injuries. Independiente will go for this match with the best they have, won't rest anyone, as they also need to worry about their relegation percentage (they're not in trouble yet, but after their disastrous Apertura, they might have some problems next year). Last performances also favor Independiente, as they drew 2-2 with Velez, after a great first half, leading 2-0 at half time, while Argentinos barely managed a late equalizer away at Huracan. Recent head-to-head is also on El Rojo's favor, losing just one of the last 10 games, and that lost game came with a lot of drama, as Independiente lead 3-1, only to lose with two goals conceded in the last 3 minutes. GL!

Independiente (+0.25 AH) @ 1.91, 4/10

Result: 0-0, HALF WON

All Boys - Racing Club

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

All eyes will be fixed on All Boys, to see if they can continue their great run of form from Apertura, which saw them finish in the upper part of the table, and far from the relegation worries from the start of the season. Racing won't be an easy opponent, but I think that goals should not be absent here. In Apertura, at home, All Boys have an average of 2 goals scored per match, while also conceding 1 per match, so if that continues, the over shouldn't be a problem tonight. Morale is good, and all the players are looking forward to Clausura, especially Cristian Fabbiani, who lost a few kilograms, looked very lively in the training sessions and pre-season friendly matches, and looks determined to get back to his old form. Racing is also a team that is usually looking for the goals, and they have plenty of players capable of taking any chances they get. Their main offensive trio, Giovanni Moreno, Hauche and Luguercio, are all confirmed to start tonight's game, and this promises to be a very competitive match from both team's part. If the line would have been set at u/o 2 goals, I would have gone with medium stakes, as I can't see anything less than 2 goals scored, but the current line is still good enough, but with some lower stakes. GL!

over 2.25 goals @ 2.00, 3/10

Result: 0-1, LOST

San Lorenzo - Gimnasia la Plata

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

New season = new hopes for San Lorenzo, as is always the case with them. They made some nice transfers, and are hoping to be contenders in this Clausura, also helped by a milder schedule compared to their rivals, as they don't have any International duties. But they need a strong start for this, if they want to keep up with the giants, and build their confidence and morale. Also, a lot is expected from the new signings, as they all have a good history that sells them as possible saviors of the team. Pablo Velazquez (ex-Libertad) and Salgueiro (ex-LDU and Estudiantes) will be in charge of the team's offense, at least for this match, and with both of them being experienced strikers, already confirming their status in their previous clubs, San Lorenzo might have found a way to escape from their goal-scoring drought. Gimnasia also made a few signings, in their quest to avoid at least a direct relegation, and the most notable player must be Guillermo Barros Schelotto. Very experienced player, but at 37 years old I seriously doubt he can make a difference for the team. Angel Cappa is also the new coach, but his last job at River was far from impressive, and now he has an even weaker rooster to work with, so I doubt Gimnasia will be trouble-free at the end of the season. Unless a huge surprise happens, this should be a home win, but only for medium-low stakes, as the first rounds can always be dangerous. GL!

San Lorenzo @ 1.80, 4/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Estudiantes la Plata - Newell's Old Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Clausura

Argentina finally restarts it's league, so let's see what the front runners have reserved for this Clausura. Estudiantes of course wants the title, and they have a solid base on which to build, following their Apertura triumph. They were exceptional at home last year, winning all their 9 games, and only conceding a single goal. But things could be a bit different this season, as they have a new coach, Eduardo Berizzo, who will make his debut, and Estudiantes could be too big for him so early in his career. He said to favor an offensive style, similar to Marcelo Bielsa's style (from whom he learned a lot), so this could mean that Estudiantes won't be that defensive rock which we're used to. Newell's is also reported to be using an offensive formation for this duel, and their new signing, Claudio Bieler, is planned to feature in attack, hoping to regain his LDU Quito-form. Attacking Estudiantes might prove worth to try, as you rarely get anything from them if you focus solely on defense. The hosts certainly have the power to win, and void this bet on themselves (2-0 is very probably), but I'm also counting on Newell's to respond. GL!

over 2 goals @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 2-1, WON

Racing Club - River Plate

Argentina Copa Ciudad de Mar de Plata -Torneo de Verano

Racing has to move on from the tragedy that struck them last week, and from the spanking that Estudiantes gave them in their first match (although they were using youngsters for that match). Nothing is certain for this match against River, but it looks very likely that Racing's coach will use the regulars. That means that Moreno, Luguercio and Hauche will form the offensive trio, and they are often deadly when it comes to it. Meanwhile, River will use a mixed team, with the majority consisting of reserve players. Only one player in every section will be a regular and an experienced player, otherwise just the ones that didn't feature regularly in the Apertura. Moreover, in defense will start for the first time a 17 year old player, and it will be interesting to see how well he copes with the pressure of facing some great offensive players. River are also going to play against Boca on Saturday, and most of their focus should be there. The Torneo de Verano Cups have always been a secondary objective for River, as the only thing that counts for them is to win Copa Desafio and Copa Revancha, both played against Boca. Racing should be well motivated to win in the memory of their physio, so I'm counting on them to do the job. GL!

Racing DNB @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Independiente - San Lorenzo

Argentina Copa de Oro - Torneo de Verano

The first of the Summer Tournaments starts tonight, in Mar de Plata, and will see Independiente and San Lorenzo dispute the final of Copa de Oro. Even though it is just a friendly game, these matches have gained enough history to be held in high regard from most teams and their supporters, so it shouldn't be treated as just a regular preparation game. Neither of the teams will field a full force squad tonight, opting to try some less used players. Independiente will use a mixed team, but since they have won the Copa Sudamericana in 2010, they made a lot of rotations in the league. Therefore, all the players they will use tonight have already played a more or less important role in Apertura. They have played together, have some matches in their back, and I'm sure everyone will try to impress, in order to be taken into account for their Copa Libertadores campaign (which starts at the end of the month), and the Clausura. Meanwhile, San Lorenzo will also use an alternative squad, but it is reported that 6 or 7 players will be youngsters, from the lower divisions of the club. They will surely try to impress, and should be happy with the opportunity, but they shouldn't have too many chances in front of a more experienced and more solid team of Independiente. Odds are very good for the DNB, and I trust El Rojo to take this Copa de Oro. GL!

Independiente DNB @ 2.17, 4/10

Result: 2-3, LOST

Huracan - Independiente

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Two teams in crisis of results will face each other tonight in Buenos Aires, and it's high time one of them wins. There is a lack of results in Primera Division for both teams, with Huracan losing their last 6 consecutive games and Independiente without a win for 7 matches, but for the Avellaneda team there is certainly not a lack of success, as they are the newly crowned champions of Copa Sudamericana, and that gives them a ticket for the preliminary round of Copa Libertadores 2011. Despite their run of 7 matches without a win, they have only lost 2 out of them, one away at surprise package All Boys, and one at home against eventual Apertura champions Estudiantes. But keep in mind, all of those matches were played with an alternative line-up, and rarely we could have seen more than 2-3 regulars, in order to rest them for Copa Sudamericana. But now, with the continental competition over, the rotation should be over, and tonight, more than half of the regulars are expected to start the game. Huracan looks hopeless at the moment, and their play seems even poorer than Gimnasia's, and I honestly don't know what they can do to turn things around. Maybe for Clausura, with a few good transfers, but Apertura is over for them. Independiente is on fire, and I expect them to bring the Sudamericana enthusiasm into this match, but I'll keep the stakes low, as the same enthusiasm could backfire on them. GL!

Independiente DNB @ 2.04, 3/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

Racing Club - Velez Sarsfield

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I'm going for the surprise here. Velez need to win and hope that Estudiantes doesn't, in order to win the title, or at least to force a deciding match between them. But in South America, unlike in most European countries, the rest of the teams don't bend over in the last round, and don't let the title hopefuls on a free run to the title. And we've seen this over and over again (Apertura 2009 - Banfield and Newell's were fighting for the title, and both teams lost in the last round; Clausura 2010 - Estudiantes drew at home against relegated Rosario Central, in the penultimate match of the season, gifting the title to Argentinos). So why can't we see something similar today? Especially since both teams are having very tough games. Racing is a very tough to beat team, especially when they are playing at home. They have a great offensive trio, Moreno-Hauche-Bieler, and they are scoring goals like crazy (all of them are expected to start). Of course, Velez's offense is even better, with Silva and Martinez topping the top scorers table, but if Estudiantes takes an early start, I seriously doubt their motivation. Thei away form also isn't as frightening as it should, so I think they'll have a lot of fighting to do. Odds are set like this only based on Velez's 'need to win', but in Argentina, that need to win usually means squat, and Racing not to lose looks like a nice bet. GL!

Racing (+0.5 AH) @ 1.82, 4/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

All Boys - Godoy Cruz

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Last round of Apertura starts today, and we'll see in action two teams that have no further plans left for 2010. Godoy Cruz has sealed it's place in Copa Libertadores 2011, so they can afford to take it easy tonight. And they'll have a huge handicap from the beginning, as they will miss a couple of key players due to some injuries. First of all, their two top scorers are both absent (David Ramirez - 8 goals, Jairo Castillo - 6 goals), and both are in the league's top 10 goalscorers, leaving the team without main firepower. But things don't end here for them, as they will also miss two more key players, midfielder Nicolas Olmedo (16 games) and defender Zelman Garcia (17 matches), and they will leave quite some big gaps, that All Boys are likely to exploit. The newly promoted team has been amazing this Apertura, winning 7 out of 9 matches at home, being just below Velez and Estudiantes from this point of view. And they seem quite motivated to end this great year in great fashion, with another win at home, a venue where they already won against River or Estudiantes. They have a few doubts in their team, and their team won't be the best they have, but at least they will change back to the 4-3-1-2 formation (unlike in the last game against Gimnasia). At first sight, the over looked good, because All Boys will have a debutant as a central defender, but with Godoy's absences upfront, I have my doubts about them scoring. All Boys to win looks a bit better. GL!

All Boys (-0.5 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Gimnasia - All Boys

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

Gimnasia keeps going from bad to worse, and it looks like a lock the fact that they will once again have to play a decider, at the end of the season, to see if they remain in the Primera Division. And, with the way they are playing, the only thing that could change that would be a direct relegation, as I honestly don't see them climbing above the play-off area any time soon. And things aren't getting any better for tonight's match, as they will miss several important players: midfielder Rinaudo and top-scorer Cordoba are absent with injuries, while defender Casco is suspended. Those absences are sure the damage Gimnasia even more, and I expect another poor match from them. All Boys are having a great campaign, and could be in with a real chance of qualifying to Copa Sudamericana at the end of the season, after spending 30 years in the lower divisions. But, despite their good performances and good play, they are still without a win in away games, so I trust them fully to try and change that tonight. They will also have a couple of absences, but overall they are much better than Gimnasia, and should be able to cope without those players, especially since their key players are up for the game. GL!

All Boys DNB @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 3-1, LOST