Cartagines - Perez Zeledon

Costa Rica Primera Division, Invierno

Nice increase of the odds for this match, although I don't understand the movements. Cartagines had a good start of the season, taking 2 points in their 2 matches, but both were played away from home, and both against solid home teams, that rarely allow points to slip from their hands. Now, Cartagines will be returning on their home ground, and they expect to record the first win of the season. And they also have some good news to lift their spirit, as 2 of the best players in the team, striker Brenes and defender Chan , are once again available, after serving a prolonged suspension. Perez Zeledon are coming from an irregular campaign so far, winning just one game, at home (the 1-0 win came late, after an 89th minute penalty), while losing with champions Alajuelense, as well as away at Puntarenas. Their coach was sacked following their last week defeat, and I doubt the new coach had enough time to work well with the squad. In the last 10 years, they have played 23 matches at Cartagines's home ground, with the hosts winning 13 of them. With the return of their important players, I see them as favorites here, and the odds are more than tasty. GL!

Cartagines (-0.75 AH) @ 2.15, 3/10

Result: 2-2, LOST

Puntarenas - Alajuelense

Costa Rica Primera Division, Invierno

Odds dropped a bit on this match, but I still find it worth betting. The group stage of the CONCACAF Champions League will start next week, and Alajuelense will be Costa Rica's main performer in the competition. And since they want to put in some good performances, but also to make sure their players won't be suffering from fatigue later in the season, they are already starting with some squad rotations. Therefore, today we will be seeing 4-5 players that will start a match for the first time this season, in a weaker Alajuelense team. Puntarenas should be a good match for them, as they have been looking quite solid in the first three rounds, and are sure to want a good performance and a win, under this circumstances. The opening odds were poor even for a full squad Alajuelense, so with a mixed team we even had some value. Now, the odds are near the real value, but they are still worth to take, as I find it hard to believe that Puntarenas won't be snatching at least a point. GL!

Puntarenas (+0.25 AH) @ 1.71, 4/10

Result: 1-3, LOST

Argentina - Costa Rica

Copa America

I stood away from Argentina so far, and my original plan was to do so for the entire tournament. But honestly, I don't see them failing again against this young Costa Rica team. Yes, they've let down their supporters in the first two games, against Bolivia (1-1) and Colombia (0-0, but they could have easily lost), and they are looking far from being a team. No tactical plans, no ideas, they are just relying on Messi to spark something... but Messi is a big zero whenever he plays for the national team (probably because Xavi and Iniesta are no longer behind him, and Mascherano and the others don't have the same effect). But... they are in a very fragile position now, with just 2 points, so a win here is a must, otherwise the qualification to the quarter-finals will be out of their hands, and pretty much impossible to obtain. And we can't say Costa Rica is more of a team either. A lot of young players, from the local league, and despite their huge surprise win against Bolivia (also facilitated by a retarded performance from the Bolivians, along 2 red cards), I don't see them standing a chance against the hosts of the tournament (who could also get some help from the referees, if need be). And if you compare some of the players, like Costa, Calvo and Duarte (Costa Rican defenders) with Tevez, Aguero and Lavezzi, the outcome should be pretty obvious. Let's hope logic will prevail this time. GL!

Argentina (-1.5 AH) @ 1.79, 3/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Bolivia - Costa Rica

Copa America

Ok, odds have been moving like crazy, up and down, and I doubt the current price will be available for too long, so let's take it now, as it surely has value if we considered it was down all the way to 1.76 yesterday on Sunday morning. Can't explain why the odds have gone up so much. Bolivia left a very good impression after their debut, in which they held Argentina to a 1-1 draw, after taking the lead and only being equalized by a superb effort from Aguero. They didn't impress (as it was Argentina who disappointed), but they looked quite ok against a bigger opponent, and with 1 point already in their pockets, 3 more against Costa Rica will assure their qualification to the next stage. Costa Rica, as we all know, are using a very experimental team, with 99% of the players performing in the local league, and 18 out of the 23 squad belonging to the U-23 team. They didn't pull any trees in their first match. In fact, they were quite awful... harmless in attack, and very vulnerable in defense, and the only reason why the match ended just 0-1 was because the Colombians treated the second half like a friendly match, and weren't even trying to score another one. This Costa Rica team is probably the poorest in all the tournament, and I don't expect them to win any points. The Bolivian team has a lot of players from Oriente Petrolero, and that's a good thing, as they know each other very well and know how to play like a team, so I expect them to pile on Costa Rica's misery. GL!

Bolivia (-0.5 AH) @ 2.01, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Colombia - Costa Rica

Copa America

The Asian bookies have finally included this match in their offer, so I'll be quick to take it, with the same confidence as my Chile bet, since the circumstances are very similar. Just like Mexico, since Costa Rica is from CONCACAF and was invited to this tournament, they are not allowed to use their best squad (it would be kind of tough anyway, since their main squad was competing in the Gold Cup). Instead, the same rules as for Mexico will apply: Costa Rica will be forced to use their Olympic U-23 squad, with an addition of maximum 5 players of age over 23. And from the 22 players selected for their preliminary squad, 8 are debutants, only 3 have more than 10 selections, and also only 3 are playing outside of Costa Rica (one is reserve goalkeeper at AZ Alkmaar, one is reserve striker at Cerro Porteno, and the other one plays for a college team in the USA). Costa Rica wouldn't have had many chances even with their best players, but this squad looks simply awful, especially since you have to compare them with Colombia: 15 players from their 23-man squad are playing in Europe. Falcao and Guarin (Europa League winners), Rodallega, Yepes, Aguilar... just to name a few. I really like this Colombia team, and I think they can reach one of the latter stages of the competition, perhaps even challenge for the trophy. And a good start could prove crucial for that, especially since they need a good morale for their second group-match against Argentina. GL!

Colombia (-1 AH) @ 1.81, 6/10

Result: 1-0, VOID

Deportivo Saprissa - Cartagines

Costa Rica Primera Division, Verano

Saprissa found some great form, having a great run of 8 games without losing in the league, 7 of them being victories, while also performing in the semi-finals of the Champions League. And with their position as group leaders 100% assured (5 points advantage with just this round remaining), they are free to change their focus to the Champions League, where they have the difficult mission of overturning a 0-2 deficit against Real Salt Lake. So far, only a few players certain of being rested, but all of them are pretty much key pieces of the team: veteran Walter Centeno, striker Alejandro Sequeira, defender Douglas Sequeira and forward Armando Alonso. But I am pretty sure that other players will be rested, as the CL semi-final is just 3 days from now, and they want all their players fit. For Cartagines, a win will only help them secure the second position, and should also prove a morale booster ahead of the play-offs. But the interesting thing appears when we look at the head-2-head: while playing away at Saprissa, Cartagines haven't lost in the last 5 matches, while Saprissa has only won 3 out of the last 12 games played at home. Also, Cartagines have only lost twice so far in 2010, and they look strong enough to hurt a semi-team of Saprissa. GL!

Cartagines (+0.5 AH) @ 1.84, 3/10

Result: 0-0, WON

Deportivo Saprissa - Herediano

Costa Rica Primera Division, Verano

We rarely see odds close to 2.00 on Saprissa at home, so this should be a good opportunity to take advantage of them. This is one of the derbies of the season for Saprissa, not as big as the one against Alajuelense, but still something that gets the blood moving. And after their dreadful season of Torneo Invierno, Saprissa looks to have found it's feet, and after the first 4 rounds of Verano they have only lost 1 match (against champions Alajuelense) and won 2, both at home, but in pretty impressive fashion: 3-0 against both San Carlos and Santos. So they clearly are on an uptrend, and should continue their current impressive home form. The first 11 should be the same as against Santos, the only absent being the injured Sirias. Herediano managed to reach the final in Invierno, but so far, their form hasn't been the same, as after a first round win at Puntarenas they went from draw to draw. Last match they were 2-men up, and still haven't managed to find the win against Limon, and even conceded the equalizer when their opponents were one man down. So their game plan is obviously not working, and I expect them to suffer a bit in 'La Cueva'. GL!

Saprissa (-0.5 AH) @ 1.95, 3/10

Result: 0-2, LOST

Cartagines - Brujas

Costa Rica Primera Division, Verano

Brujas has been hit by a serious crisis, and the club is trembling at every level. First of all, there is the financial insecurity, following the arrest of the owner Minor Vargas. Most of the players want to leave, and a lot of them already did, as 4 players (Andres Nunez, Rodolfo Rodríguez, Paolo Jimenez and Heiner Mora) managed to resign their contracts, and there are 3 more players very close to doing the same thing until Tuesday, when the transfer market closes. And all of these problems and uncertainties are reflected in the players' performances, who after a solid away win in the first round, got just one more point in the next 3 matches, being on 2 consecutive losses (being almost trashed by Perez Zeledon mid-week). Cartagines is an OK team, usually mid-level in Costa Rica, but can also surprise the big guys from time to time. They haven't enjoyed the best start, despite losing just one game from 4, they have also managed to win just 1, so they need continuity in results and a boost in points. They have already managed to beat Brujas two months ago, in the play-offs, so I don't see why they couldn't do it again, especially since Brujas are knee-deep in heavy problems. GL!

Cartagines (-0.75 AH) @ 1.88, 5/10

Result: 1-1, LOST

Deportivo Saprissa - San Carlos

Costa Rica Primera Division, Verano

Saprissa needs to make a strong start in this Torneo de Verano of the first league, if they want people to forget the shameful performance from last competition. They are the best team, overall, from Costa Rica, and last competition's 11th place certainly does not give them any favors. They could have the excuse that they were also playing in the Champions League, but even so, their finishing position was the poorest in quite a while, so they'll have to impress this season. And me, personally, I consider them title favorites. Meanwhile, San Carlos pretty much has the same squad as in 2010, with which they managed to reach the final of Torneo Invierno, and the quarter-finals of Torneo Verano, after being close to relegation at the end of 2009. They opted for continuity, but this could seriously backfire on them, as they made only a few transfers. And for today's game, they have more than half the team unavailable: defenders Arriola and Mora, as well as midfielder Montoya are all suspended, while midfielder Gustavo Perez, offensive midfielder Russell and striker Kenneth Vargas. 6 players, and all of them are important pieces of San Carlos's puzzle. So, with so many absences for the visitors, as well as a traditionally poor record on the road (especially at Saprissa, where they won 1 and drew 1 in 16 matches, played over the last 10 years), plus the positive reaction that I expect from Saprissa, this should most likely go down as a clear victory for El Monstruo Morado. GL!

Deportivo Saprissa (-0.75) @ 1.73, 5/10

Result: 3-0, WON

Peru - Costa Rica

International Friendly

Peru looks really good in this new era under 'El Mago' Markarian, and have won both matches played so far, against Canada and Jamaica, and I was impressed by their play, showing some new life in them. And the new coach also managed to set an improved atmosphere in the camp, and that could also be a reason for the good play. He'll change the system for today's match, as he'll move away from the 4-4-2 used in the previous two games, and will try a 3-4-3 here, which on paper looks good, as we'll have Rengifo, Chavez and Farfan up-front. All of them look in solid form, and I'm expecting them to transfer their league form to the national team. the three-defenders line might look a bit shaky, but Ramos, Zambrano and Vilchez are solid centre-backs, and when defending, Peru's tactical plan can easily change to a 5-3-2, as the wingers Guizasola and Rabanal will probably have defensive duties. For Costa Rica, this match won't probably mean too much, as they are lead by an interim coach, who will be changed after next week's game, and also some regulars are missing, most notably in attack, where neither Bryan Ruiz, nor Saborio or Parks have been called-up, so the strikers will be from the local league, without much experience. In defense we also see some lack of quality, as only Badilla is a regular, and will most probably play along 2 debutants. Peru shouldn't have any problems winning this, and a 2-0 score is my call. GL!

Peru (-0.75 AH) @ 1.85, 4/10

Result: 2-0, WON