Nacional - River

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

A very good match should be awaiting us today in Uruguay, as Nacional and River will face-off for one of the top positions. Danubio are leaders, after winning yesterday against Penarol, but that could change today, as River could leapfrog them if they win. With a win for Nacional, they will tie River on second place. Whatever happens, this season promises to be very interesting. And for this match in particular, the goals should flow freely. Both teams have very good offensive abilities, with Nacional having the quality with Gonzalez, Alonso and Porta, while River has the form with Casas (scored 2 goals in 4 games) and Santos (2 goals in 4 games), along with winger Techera, who also scored 2 goals. Very offensive line-ups for both teams, and for River this can be seen  by looking at the standings, having score 14 goals and conceding 6 after 4 rounds. Also, in the last 10 mutual games between them, there were 47 goals scored (an average of almost 5 goals per match), and 8 of those games ended with a minimum of 3 goals. I'll go with the same trend, as both teams look good enough to provide us a thrilling encounter. GL!

 

over 2.75 goals @ 2.13, 4/10

Result: 1-0, LOST

River Plate - Central Espanol

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

With just 2 rounds remaining in the Uruguayan league, things are pretty much clear, and everyone knows what they have to do. One such game is River against Central Espanol, where both teams need to win, but for totally different reasons. River needs the 3 points to tie Defensor at the top of the Clausura table, and put some pressure on them (they play on Sunday), while Central Espanol needs a miracle, as they need the 3 points here and in the last round, while they're also hoping for a couple of slip-ups from Fenix and Progreso, in order to continue in the Primera Division. And this will be very hard for them, as they have been showing some very poor football so far, and they are playing against a team who fights for the title. River made an excellent campaign so far, and will repeat the team that drew last week with Defensor. No important absences for them, as they look set to continue their good form, as they won 7 out of 13 games in the Clausura (second-best behind Defensor), where they also have the best offense, with 21goals scored. They have a lot to play for, as I'm sure they won't be giving up the fight so easily, and I'm confident in an easy win here. GL!

River (-1 AH) @ 1.87, 4/10
Result: 5-0, WON

River Plate - Nacional

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

To be honest right from the start here, these odds are just ridiculous. Nacional is Nacional, and they will always be a big name and a good team in this league, but looking at their recent matches and at River's form, it's just silly to give out such odds for them, and make them 1.70 favorites. I'm not impressed at all with the way the team has played, ever since Arruabarrena took over as coach, despite still being undefeated. They managed two wins against last placed Bella Vista and against troubled Liverpool, but they only managed a draw at home against high-flying El Tanque Sisley. And their game is generally not as convincing as it should. And this match also catches them in a tough scheduling-moment, as they will have the Super Clasico against Penarol on Saturday, and are in the middle of a Libertadores clash with Real Garcilaso (lost first leg by 0-1). Three important players will be absent today: defender Nunez (8/0), forward Bueno (4/2) and Alvaro Recoba (4/1). The rest of the regulars will start the match, but they may suffer from fatigue a bit, after a tiring match played at over 3500 meters of altitude last Thursday. River is in awesome form, with 4 consecutive wins, and 6 out of 9 throughout this competition. With a win today, they will be the leaders of the Clausura, equal on points with Defensor, so if they needed some extra-motivation, they have it. And in recent years, they've also had some superiority against Nacional: if we look at their last 10 mutual matches, River won 7 (including the one from Apertura, as visitors, by 2-0), and also recorded a draw, leaving Nacional with just 2 wins. I'm confident they will remain with some points tonight, and these odds are just screaming to be taken. GL!

River (+0.5 AH) @ 2.05, 4/10
Result: 1-2, LOST

River Plate - Liverpool

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Odds are going up a bit here, and that can only make me happy, as I don't see any real reason for that. Neither team is doing a great campaign so far, but if I were to choose the first team that will collapse, this will definitely be Liverpool. They have a very short squad, so their coach rarely gets the chance to rest one or two players. So they took on all their matches so far in the league or in Sudamericana with pretty much the same team, and the same case will be today. And this could be detrimental to them, as fatigue and tiredness will definitely catch up. They played in Argentina during midweek, so they couldn't get too many days of rest. And since their performances haven't been great anyway, I don't expect a higher level of football today. River Plate is a very strong team at home, and we can see that in their recent results: in 2012, they have only lost one game at home... the very first one, back in February, exactly against Liverpool. However, things have changed lately, and Liverpool is nothing like last season's team. Both teams are short on quality, but with a wider squad and an easier schedule, River should nick it here. GL!

River DNB @ 1.97, 4/10
Result: 2-0, WON

Penarol - River Plate

Uruguay Primera Division, Apertura

Second round of the Uruguayan league sees Penarol coming after a thriller of a first round. They were leading Fenix, and it looked like they were in control and would have had an easy job. Fenix drew the match before HT, after being 1-3 down, and managed to score the winner in the second half. So Penarol must surely be still hurt after that match, so they should be more focused to get the points today. There's no doubt that they have a much better and superior team compared to most of the other teams in the league, but they will have to work on their defensive game, and on their concentration. River comes after a 1-0 win against newly-promoted Juventud, after a less than impressive match. They have a very young squad, and I don't think they can have too many expectations this season. From the 19-man squad they have selected for the game against Penarol, 10 players are coming from the youth system, and have less than 20 years. Also, a few of them will make their debut today in the first division, while other will play their second match, having debuted last week. So I expect to see a team without experience, which at least tonight, should be an easy prey for the Uruguayan giants. GL!

Penarol (-0.75 AH) @ 1.80, 4/10
Result: 1-1, LOST

River Plate - El Tanque Sisley

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Just one small bet for today, as I can't really find any other solid bets, nor any value. The Clausura tournament in Uruguay is coming to a close, with just 3 matches remaining, and even though Defensor look set to clinch the final spot, there are still plenty of objectives to play for. One of them is the qualification for Copa Sudamericana (as the Libertadores places have already been 'arrested' by the 3 big guns), and we have 4 teams fighting for 3 spots. And today, from those teams, River seems to have the easiest match, as they will take on a team that will just wait patiently for the holidays to come. With 72 points in the relegation table, El Tanque Sisley are safe, even mathematically, and without any other objectives in mind, I don't think they'll give too much in the remaining 3 rounds. Also their game is not impressive at all, so they shouldn't pose many problems to the other teams that are still fighting for something. About River, we can't say they are a really strong team, but they did make some recent improvements lately, winning 3 of their last 5 matches (the other 2 were a draw with Danubio, and a narrow loss to Penarol). A win today will put them back into contention for a Sudamericana place (they are currently 3 points behind the last qualification spot), so they definitely have something to play for. The odds went down a bit for them, but I still think the bet is worth playing, as El Tanque should pose little threat. GL!

River (-0.5 AH) @ 1.74, 4/10

Result: 4-0, WON

River Plate - Nacional Montevideo

Uruguay Primera Division, Clausura

Nacional keeps going with their red-hot form, as they appear to be unstoppable, after notching up 7 consecutive wins in the league, taking over the top place both in the Clausura and in the Aggregate tables. 3 more points today will see them edge the Final spot even closer, and, worst case scenario, they will at least preserve their 3 points lead on Penarol. And this match seems like a no-brainer, if we keep in mind the lowly stature of their opponents and the great form that Nacional is passing through. Despite a crucial match in Libertadores next week, coach Carrasco will only rest Gallardo, while top scorer Garcia will be out with an injury. Pretty big miss, but the other 3 strikers planned to start - Viudez, Fornaroli and Peralta - can do a pretty good job, especially against one of the poorest defenses in the league. River is safe for the moment, but with just 4 points ahead of the relegation line, they have to do something if they don't want to be caught in the red zone come the end of the season. Both teams have been involved in quite a few high-scoring games lately (Nacional - has scored 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 games; River - involved in 6 matches with at least 3 goals, from 8 played). Head-2-head is interesting, as before last year's 6-1 win for Nacional, River had an incredible 5 consecutive won matches. Odds are incredibly poor for the away win, and the handicap is quite huge, but the over 3 line seems a good choice, especially since in their last 10 direct encounter, there were 47 goals scored. GL!

over 3 goals @ 1.98, 4/10

Result: 4-2, WON

Racing Club - River Plate

Argentina Copa Ciudad de Mar de Plata -Torneo de Verano

Racing has to move on from the tragedy that struck them last week, and from the spanking that Estudiantes gave them in their first match (although they were using youngsters for that match). Nothing is certain for this match against River, but it looks very likely that Racing's coach will use the regulars. That means that Moreno, Luguercio and Hauche will form the offensive trio, and they are often deadly when it comes to it. Meanwhile, River will use a mixed team, with the majority consisting of reserve players. Only one player in every section will be a regular and an experienced player, otherwise just the ones that didn't feature regularly in the Apertura. Moreover, in defense will start for the first time a 17 year old player, and it will be interesting to see how well he copes with the pressure of facing some great offensive players. River are also going to play against Boca on Saturday, and most of their focus should be there. The Torneo de Verano Cups have always been a secondary objective for River, as the only thing that counts for them is to win Copa Desafio and Copa Revancha, both played against Boca. Racing should be well motivated to win in the memory of their physio, so I'm counting on them to do the job. GL!

Racing DNB @ 1.78, 4/10

Result: 3-1, WON

Colon - River

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I'll stick with the trend here, and go for the under again, as today, we will have two teams that are looking incapable of scoring, or creating some solid chances. Those who have watched River playing, know that only one word can describe them: boredom. They are indeed pretty solid at the back, and defend pretty well, but when it comes to go on the attack, they just lack any ideas of creativity. Most of their actions are very easy to read, and even when the ball reaches the area successfully, the finishing is just awful. And Colon's offense is just as poor, so if someone is expecting any type of excitement from this match, he should be in for a very nasty surprise. I'm expecting both teams to focus on the defense, especially now that River is out of the play-off places, and every lost match for them is likely to send them back. And with their poor form away, their aproach has to be careful, especially since they can't count on a good offensive game. Colon should take advantage of the weak River, but it won't be easy. The good thing is that they tend to sit back and defend if they open the score, so I'm not expecting more than 1 goal from them, and that is 1 goal too many than what I expect from River. With just 4 matches out of 16 finishing with more than 2 goals, I think this game goes as a good opportunity for another poor performance from both teams. GL!

under 2 goals @ 2.11, 3/10

Result: 1-2, LOST

All Boys - River Plate

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura

I just couldn't believe my eyes when I saw the odds, and I just can't understand why River is a favorite here (probably because people are betting, and odds are set in favor of the big name). Even saw, I waited until the last minute to take the bet, as I was waiting for some last minute news on All Boys's line-up, as they had 5 regulars doubtful. And the news are pretty good, as 3 of those 5 have been recovered and should start, leaving only midfielder Perea and striker Ereros out of the game. The absence of Ereros could be the tricky part here, as in his place, Fabbiani will play, and he's pretty much awful. But I have faith in his team-mates, and if they play like they usually do on home ground, I don't give River much chances. All Boys are really playing well at home, defeating some huge names from Argentina, like Boca, Estudiantes or Independiente, and besides the wins, what really surprised me was the way they are playing, always looking for the goal, and avoiding the 'defend at all costs' strategy, that the small teams usually employ. River, on the other hand, are still in the relegation play-off area, and look totally out of form. Despite their big names (Pavone, Buonanotte, Funes Mori, etc), they just can't seem to get it right, and are on a streak of 6 games without a win. They have a lot of troubles in scoring, despite being able to create a lot of chances, and if they let their opponents to put pressure on them, it usually turns into a conceded goal. The DNB looks great, same as the over 2 line, as I expect an open game, with All Boys as the most probable winner. GL!

All Boys DNB @ 2, 3/10

Result: 1-0, WON

River - Quilmes

Argentina Primera Division, Apertura 2010

River is suffering from the 'South American team syndrome', or, how I like to call it, the 'Peruvian team syndrome', when a team that plays at high altitude wins their home matches, but fails to do the same in away games. However, this is most unusual in Argentina, and I don't see the reason behind it... maybe at home they get pushed from behind by the supporters, or maybe they have a complex when playing on other stadiums... who knows. The fact is that they have won all 3 of their home matches, against much better opposition than Quilmes (they've beaten Tigre, Independiente and Arsenal), and I expect them to continue their form. No reason to question their motivation, as they are threatened by relegation, and they should get the maximum against direct rivals, especially at home. That is why coach Cappa decided to go with an offensive trident, consisting of Pavone (Betis player on loan, who is highly expected to burst and finally start scoring some goals), highly rated Buonanotte and team top scorer Funes Mori. They haven't played together too much this season, but the coach expects this formula to work, and so do I.
Newly promoted team Quilmes looks set to go back from where they came from, as they are still winless after 7 rounds, with only 4 draws, but only one of them away from home. They are very poor, that's a fact, and individual quality is certainly on River's side. The reports are saying Quilmes won't stay at the back and defend tonight, and if that is the case, their strategy will likely be suicidal, as River has enough ability to torture them on the counter attack. The only way for them to leave with something from El Monumental is to defend, but they have to do it perfectly, otherwise, this could get ugly. Either way, this should go as a win for River, and the -1 looks quite safe. GL!

River (-1 AH) @ 2.00, 5/10

Result: 1-1, LOST